It's late, Normal People Time. I question my own judgment writing late at night. But I'm gonna do it. I just looked at RealClearPolitics' New Hampshire polling list:
Formidable lead for Trump. FORMIDABLE lead, 16 point average. But it's down, it's down 4-5 points. And there's still a little bit of Iowa baked into that average, the Harper poll that gave Trump a 17 point lead on the field, 21 on Marco Rubio.
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Trump | Rubio | Cruz | Kasich | Bush | Christie | Fiorina | Carson | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 2/1 - 2/4 | -- | -- | 31.1 | 15.1 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 3.3 | Trump +16.0 |
| Boston Globe/Suffolk | 2/3 - 2/4 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 29 | 19 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 4 | Trump +10 |
| WBUR/MassINC | 2/2 - 2/4 | 410 LV | 4.9 | 29 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 4 | Trump +17 |
| UMass/7News (Tracking) | 2/2 - 2/4 | 500 LV | 4.8 | 34 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | Trump +19 |
| ARG (Tracking) | 2/3 - 2/4 | 420 LV | 5.0 | 36 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Trump +21 |
| CNN/WMUR | 2/2 - 2/4 | 209 LV | 6.8 | 29 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | Trump +11 |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | 2/2 - 2/3 | 653 LV | 3.8 | 30 | 17 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4 | Trump +13 |
| Harper (R) | 2/1 - 2/2 | 425 LV | 4.8 | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | Trump +17 |
Looking at the two most recent polls, ARG and Boston Globe/Suffolk, Trump still has his 21 point lead in ARG but it's only 10 in the Globe survey. Every poll has Rubio coming on but Trump's average numbers haven't slipped.
For Rubio to win, he has to take votes from Trump, I can't see him making up 16 points from Cruz, Kasich, Bush and Christie who combined, have done nothing to have their support swamped by a Rubio tsunami. For Rubio to win, and he got most of the post-Iowa bounce per fivethirtyeight, Trump has got to get a flat out of Iowa, he has to lose, imo, eight percentage points off his 31% average and Rubio would have to gain that eight. MORE than formidable task for Rubio.
What none of these polls have baked in is Trump's f-bomb and then his skedaddle. I think both those things are going to hurt Trump and I think he will drop to the requisite 23%. Can Rubio really gain 8% though? I cannot justify that quantitatively, I just feel it. Yes, he can. Whatever the precise number, I predict Trump will drop to it and Rubio will ascend over it beat him. That's my prediction. Rubio will defeat Trump in New Hampshire.
Good night. And, I probably should have said that an hour ago.
