Thursday, February 11, 2016

Why Trump? Why Sanders? Why Now?

There is an angry groaning. We do not see and we hear only indistinctly, only that there is an angry groaning coming from parts of America.(1)

There is a questioning, "Does America Still Work?" It is both a statement of doubt and a question for we cannot see clearly that America does not still work, we want to know if others can see clearly, we want them to tell us if America still works, and we see vaguely, we "sense," that America does not still work.

Why would we ask ourselves that question at all? One of the New York Times columnists wrote, trying to answer "Why Trump? Why Sanders? Why Now?" that, really, things are not that bad, in fact, they're pretty darn good, especially in America as compared to the rest of the world. He's right. We have long been out of the Great Recession, thanks to President Obama and the Republican congress...What else? Our standard of living is still very high...We're kinda sorta out of wars...

We're not a kinda-sorta people. We want to win wars, not get out of them; we don't want to get out of Great Recessions, we don't want Great Recessions. We don't want sorta Peace and sorta Prosperity, we want Peace and Prosperity. We want to be "Great Again!" That makes us Proud and we want to be proud of America; that makes us Love America and we want to love America.

We don't want a "Post-American World."

The memorized 30-second speech for which the dearly departed Chris Christie successfully skewered Marco Rubio, have you ever listened to it, or read it?

"He knows exactly what he's doing. Barack Obama is undertaking a systematic effort to change this country, to make America more like the rest of the world. That's why he passed Obamacare, and the stimulus, and Dodd-Frank, and the deal with Iran, it is a systematic effort to change America."

There is truth there. Obama said repeatedly, "We are the only advanced nation in the world...":

1. That didn't have some form of universal health care;
2.That doesn't have meaningful handgun restrictions.

At least those two, and the truth in Rubio's memorized speech is that Obama has changed America with Obamacare to make it more like the rest of the world, especially "those Scandinavian countries," and if he had the untempered power would, in a heartbeat and with a pen stroke, make America more like the rest of the world in handgun control. 

In my opinion Obama has made America "a more perfect union" with Obamacare and it would be more perfect still with handgun control but notice Rubio's words, he doesn't say Obama has made America better or worse, Rubio says only that Obama has changed America to make it "more like the rest of the world." Rubio's point is not that America is better or worse off, it is changed.

Americans generally, and this is not just Republican candidates and primary voters, Americans across party and ideological lines, and the vast majority of us it seems to me, do not want to be like the rest of the world!

That is a primal feeling with Americans, it is deep in our souls. Every American except Native Americans and the slaves is an American because (s)he did not want to be like the rest of the world. We came here because we lived in the rest of the world and thought it SUCKED. 

"Except Native Americans and slaves:" I have often thought that part of the reason for the intransigence of Republicans to anything Barack Obama attempted to do was because of race. My God, they decided on the strategy of intransigence at a meeting held the night of Obama's first inauguration! First time that has ever happened. Coincidence that it happened on the evening of the first Black president's inauguration? No. 

Obama is not a descendant of slaves, his father was Kenyan-born and came to America freely, and left to go back to Kenya freely, but Obama self-identifies American Black and you cannot self-identify as American Black and not self-identify with the slave history of American Black people. 

Now, how might this be significant to our topic? Obama self-identifies with one of two groups of Americans who have been persecuted and discriminated against for the entire history of America, are  still discriminated against, and with the one group that were slaves. SLAVES. That is so painful. I tell you, sometimes I think of my Black friends and am amazed that they don't want to kill me and every other White person they know. I would totally understand! I would understand if they didn't Love America as White people do, but they do and that amazes me more.

"Love America:" 

“I do not believe, and I know this is a horrible thing to say, but I do not believe that the president loves America. He doesn’t love you. And he doesn’t love me. He wasn’t brought up the way you were brought up and I was brought up through love of this country.”-Rudolph Giuliani, February 18, 2015, speaking to a group of Republicans.

The overwhelming majority of Americans, including Obama's spokesman, castigated Giuliani for saying such a "horrible" thing, so painful, so untrue. I, and I remember at least one other person, a Black man, wrote that I could understand how it would be true, and would not think less of Obama as man or president if it were true. He grew up differently, way differently, than most of us did. Not only Black African father, White mother, but a Muslim father, who Obama identified with, for whom he has a special fondness, to whom he dedicated his book, not his White, American, Kansan mother, and Obama lived from ages six to ten in another part of the world, Indonesia. First through fourth grade he attended school in Indonesia; formative years, first through fourth grade, and Obama has a special fondness for Indonesia. As I hope he would.

But, you see, having a special fondness for another country calls into question in some people's minds, including mine, whether the person has another Love and most Americans, not including me, want America to be Loved, firstly, and then to be loved exclusively, "exceptionally." Some "real" American Black people do not like to be labeled "African American;" there is nothing African about them, they are Black. Period there. Obama has feet in different worlds: America, and a unique part of America, Hawaii; Africa, Kenya; the Muslim world, and in Indonesia, 87% Muslim. And Obama does not have the feelings that almost all other Americans have, of  "The old country, good riddance!" No. He has fond memories of Indonesia, has fond feelings for his Muslim Kenyan father, seems to have a special place in his heart for Africa, where did he give his first foreign speech as
president? Egypt. All, "as I hope he would and am glad he does." But, I'm not everybody.

It is in this "multiple fondess-es," this multi-cultural sense that I think race plays a special role in Republican attitudes toward Obama, it is not that he is American Black, they liked Ben Carson for awhile, liked Alan Keyes for awhile, liked Herman Cain a little, because they were "real" American Black, did not have weird foreign names, had "real" American names! just like "Rudolph Giuliani." For instance. That is, I think, what Giuliani was getting at when he said he didn't think Obama loved America, didn't love "you," who is he talking to? White Republicans. It is, I think, what Marco Rubio is getting at in his memorized 25-second speech, that, for good or bad  Rubio doesn't say (in those 25 seconds), Obama has attempted to "change" America "to make America more like the rest of the world," a world that Obama does not not love and which Rubio, most Republicans and most Americans, do not love. 

So, "Why Trump?" Donald Trump is sui generis. Perhaps never has American politics seen a candidate like him, which is not to say that there are not some parallels. Trump's support is, and has been this entire young political season, limited to about a one-third segment of the Republican Party. He is the most unpopular Republican candidate among all registered Republicans and is viewed negatively by huge majorities of Independents and Democrats. Yet he also leads the Republican race.

Trump leads the Republican race with about one-third support for the same structural reason Adolph Hitler was able to position himself as Fuhrer of Germany with approximately the same level of support among voters: divided opposition.

Trump has approximately one-third support because of his personality, his unique political style and his policy proposals. Trump has an out-sized personality, larger than life, and has had this image in America for decades. It appeals to some because when they think of a leader they want the man to look and sound like a leader. Trump is a commanding presence who speaks in a commanding style, perfect for some for a commander-in-chief.

Trump insults fellow Republicans in the most personal terms, which accounts for his unpopularity among most Republicans, but for about one-third, is reinforcement of his commanding presence. A commander gives orders, he doesn't ask; a commander says "You're Fired!", he does not brook dissent; a commander does not ask for support, he demands it. Trump has what I have called a sixth sense for identifying and exploiting an opponent's weaknesses. I heard a Washington Post reporter this week describe the same ability as that of a "heat-seeking missile."

Trump's policy proposals are sometimes vague ("I'll get a better deal with China, Iran;" "I'll bring the businesses that left New Hampshire for Mexico back again."), sometimes outlandish (Build a wall, "Bomb the shit out of ISIS."), sometimes nuanced and specific ("Stop Muslim immigration until we figure out what is going on."), all have in common "Do," and all are consistent with his strongman persona. "If Donald Trump says he's going to do something, he's going to do it!" Forget about how, he's going to do it. Forget about the Constitution, separation of powers, getting legislation passed, forget all that stuff. One-third of Republicans want the things Trump proposes and wants them DONE NOW.

Sprinkle in some latent fascism in the American electorate, add some residual insanity from the Declaration of Independence and voila!

Why Now?:" because it's after eight years of Obama, that's why! That was David Axelrod's epiphany at least.

"Why Sanders?" Why a 74 year-old Jewish socialist? I don't think Sanders' popularity has the same deep-rootedness as does Trump's, and I don't think Trump's is as broad as many think, I think it is capped at 30%-40% of Republicans, but I think it is more deeply rooted in the American soul than Sanders'. Sanders' showing in New Hampshire will not be replicated, part of the reason for that is neighboring Vermont, but no, not all of it. Sanders is appealing to young people, lefties have since the '60's, but young people have never gone to a socialist in these numbers. Is it Clinton or Hillary fatigue?

I think a large part is Hillary (Clinton) fatigue. Look, she was doing well in the public's eye as Secretary of State, was stepping out of Bill's dark shadow, was getting props as a good soldier who buckled down and did the best job she could and then...Benghazi. Her judgment pre- and post- was dead wrong. Then she left office and...email-gate. For me, that was it; it was same-old, same-old, she hadn't changed from "vast right-wing conspiracy" Hillary. Still paranoid after all these years.

Now, put yourself in the shoes of a Democratic voter, not a teenager, but someone in his or her 30's and older, someone who remembers Benghazi and "vast right-wing conspiracy" and for whom email-gate resonated like a cracked bell. If you are bothered by those things what is your only option when you step into the voting booth? The Democrats' problem is the opposite of the Republicans' crisis. The anti-Trump vote is split four ways. The Democratic ABC (Anybody But Clinton) vote has one channel out, a 74 year old Jewish socialist.

I think all of the above is a lot of it, most of it, but let us also give Democratic voters a little more credit. Young people, more so older voters, but some of all voters are asking themselves the question in the opening sentence of this post, "Does America Still Work?" It would be completely understandable if Sanders supporters have the same vague uneasiness gnawing at them, that things just don't feel as right as the Times columnist pointed out they were, they don't understand why the Great Recession happened, are not much more impressed than others that Obama got us out of it, the young people probably don't have as great a sense as others that a Great Recession isn't supposed to happen to a Great America, but are not that impressed that we're out of it, know that whatever the causes of the Great Recession, "They," some ill-defined but more keenly felt They, were responsible, and for getting us out of it too, the same people, the Bushs, the Obamas, Wall Street, Bernie Madoff, Icelanders and their volcanoes, all those guys; Democratics are feeling fragile, America feels a bit fragile to them, their futures seems fragile, their safety seems fragile, like their iPhones, broken easily, repaired not so easily, and damned expensive. Bernie Sanders was not one of them, those They's, even though he was, Hillary Clinton definitely was a They and these voters also, like the Trumpets, don't want more Theys!  It's a theory.

1. "...if one could not see the revolution one could hear it in the evenings, carried across the Peking sky. The sound was...angry...shrill...often accompanied by the beating of drums...You could not escape from the roar...it was like the moaning of a gigantic animal crouching over the city...I was utterly bewildered." Unnamed British Communist translator quoted in Mao's Last Revolution, MacFarquhar and Schoenhals, (2006) on the beginnings of the Chinese Cultural Revolution.