Let’s first examine the question of how seriously we should take the specter of civil disorder. I asked a number of experts in American politics and their replies varied.
Philip Bobbitt, a law professor at Columbia and the University of Texas, and the author of a new edition of Charles Black’s “Impeachment: A Handbook,” replied to my inquiry:
"I doubt he would go quietly and would not be surprised if he claims he was robbed, but any attempt to hold onto office — to refuse to leave the mansion, or keep issuing executive orders drafted by Stephen Miller, or sending nominations to the Senate — would be laughably brief. There is no Praetorian Guard in the United States, certainly not the highly professional Secret Service."
-Philip Bobbitt, professor of law, Columbia University and the University of Texas.
...
"I believe that the career officials of the federal government, including members of the military, would adhere to the person who won, regardless of which candidate they supported. [But] the role of Fox News should not be underestimated. If Fox declared that Trump was the “real winner” all bets would be off. I believe, however, they would report honestly on such an important question."
-Walter Dellinger, professor emeritus, Duke Law School
" [if the 2020 election is very close] one that, broadly like 2000, hinged on one or maybe two contested states it is possible that Republicans would close ranks behind Trump, resulting in a constitutional crisis. If right-wing media and the G.O.P. politicians were to remain solidly behind Trump, as they largely have thus far in previous scandals, there would be no easy constitutional exit. In my view, the key variable is the response of the Republican coalition, including Fox News and other major right wing media. If the Republican coalition fractures, Trump is toast."
If a Senate vote on impeachment “is bipartisan," Levitsky added, “Trump will have no choice but to go peacefully (screaming on Twitter, perhaps, but peacefully) into the night.”
-Steven Levitsky, a professor of government at Harvard
Philip Bobbitt, a law professor at Columbia and the University of Texas, and the author of a new edition of Charles Black’s “Impeachment: A Handbook,” replied to my inquiry:
"I doubt he would go quietly and would not be surprised if he claims he was robbed, but any attempt to hold onto office — to refuse to leave the mansion, or keep issuing executive orders drafted by Stephen Miller, or sending nominations to the Senate — would be laughably brief. There is no Praetorian Guard in the United States, certainly not the highly professional Secret Service."
-Philip Bobbitt, professor of law, Columbia University and the University of Texas.
...
"I believe that the career officials of the federal government, including members of the military, would adhere to the person who won, regardless of which candidate they supported. [But] the role of Fox News should not be underestimated. If Fox declared that Trump was the “real winner” all bets would be off. I believe, however, they would report honestly on such an important question."
-Walter Dellinger, professor emeritus, Duke Law School
" [if the 2020 election is very close] one that, broadly like 2000, hinged on one or maybe two contested states it is possible that Republicans would close ranks behind Trump, resulting in a constitutional crisis. If right-wing media and the G.O.P. politicians were to remain solidly behind Trump, as they largely have thus far in previous scandals, there would be no easy constitutional exit. In my view, the key variable is the response of the Republican coalition, including Fox News and other major right wing media. If the Republican coalition fractures, Trump is toast."
If a Senate vote on impeachment “is bipartisan," Levitsky added, “Trump will have no choice but to go peacefully (screaming on Twitter, perhaps, but peacefully) into the night.”
-Steven Levitsky, a professor of government at Harvard
