Monday, November 30, 2020
Atlas Shrugged
Dr Scott Atlas, like Dr Michael Levitt, a non-expert in epidemiology from Stanford, resigned today. He was Trump’s hand-picked man on the coronavirus task force. Like Levity Atlas had his head up his ass, or in concrete, and advocated that TrumPlague was no biggie, that the mask-ists and social distancers were just being hysterical. Back to Stanford!
267,987
The mothers of two of my son's boss' best friends both died on the same day, Sunday, of COVID-19. One was just diagnosed five days ago and was hospitalized three days ago. Thanks Trump!
826 were reported Sunday to Johns Hopkins as Killed. That is the lowest day's report in two weeks.
It's hard to get a read from Thanksgiving week's stats on where we're headed in the next week, counting tomorrow, Tuesday, as the start of the reporting week. Sunday and Monday, today, are the reporting "weekend" days, when reporting lags. It is going against the reporting periodicity but my gut is overruling my head: I don't think the stats for today, when they come out in a few hours, are going to report fewer than 826 Killed. My gut tells me it's going to be over 1,000.
The New York Times' 14-day changes:
+8% Cases.
+36% Hospitalizations.
+26% Deaths.
Sunday, November 29, 2020
Two, Finis
David Brooks largely absolves the internet of blame for the knowledge gap through the spread of disinformation and the creation of echo chambers. "Why would the internet have corrupted Republicans so much more than Democrats, the global right more than the global left?" is his rhetorical question and answer to J'Accuse the www. Brooks' column is informed by three scholarly sources, the 2020, with "limitations", Lynn University study on which the previous post paused, a 2019 Niskanen Center paper called "TheDestiny Divide" and "The Constitution of Knowledge" published in 2018 at AEI with which Brooks starts and which has the most weight in his thought.
Curious though, for Jonathan Rauch, author of Constitution of Knowledge, decidedly does not absolve the internet. Brooks' rhetorical question is too facile, insufficient. There simply is no doubt of the key role of alt-right outlets like Fox and Breitbart as sources, and as amplifiers, of the alternative reality that resulted in the undemocratic Trump getting 63M votes in 2016 and 74M in 2020.
Anyway, David Brooks likes everything else that Jonathan Rauch wrote in The Constitution of Knowledge. Check this out and see Dave have to change his underwear:
...We need an elite consensus, and hopefully also something approaching a public consensus, on the method of validating propositions.
A critical mass needs to agree on what it is we do that distinguishes truth from falsehood, and more important, on who does it.
A more convincing explanation of the variance--and please, it is not right-left, it is democratic-undemocratic--is that the Establishment's gates did keep out hare-brained alternatives, it was "The End of History!--there was elite consensus on issues such as globalism, social democracy, interdependence, climate science, and ascriptive characteristic inclusiveness. Were those not the hot button issues of today and of 2016? The problem was that the Establishment's gates did not prevent the growth of a populist, undemocratic, unscientific, anti-knowledge, disinformation sub-universe outside the gates. Ascriptive "Identity" politics and faith-based nationalism have had their adherents throughout modern Western history. For godssake Trump's "America First" approach was lifted in toto from the 1930's. It has always been in the American people, in other words. What happened in 2016 and 2020 was the emergence of a Leader who, by sheer trial-and-error, tapped into that historical strain.
I remembered to question Dave's sources. Right after discussing the happiness study conducted at the Harvard of Boca, Dave writes,
People need a secure order to feel safe.
In brackets by me: WHO SAYS THIS? Not the happiness scholars. In fact, the exact opposite:
If Americans without a college degree – who remain the majority of the population – are increasingly unhappy, politicians who promise change may be more attractive, [BROOKS SAYS THE OPPOSITE “SECURE ORDER” BELOW!] and there will be growing class polarization in views of political candidates. Growing dissatisfaction among those with less income may also make political systems such as socialism and government policies such as universal basic income more popular. [bracketed comments mine]
I also read closely the entirety of Jonathan Rauch's twenty-one page article and didn't remember reading that. I then searched the document for "security","Social Security" came up, Social Security for Elvis, and for "secure" the word does not appear, "order," ditto. I did not read Density Divide soup to nuts, that's the 79-pager, but last night I did the same search of that article. Dave's sentence is Lippmann-esque, Stalin-esque. Nothing like it appears in any of the sources cited. I can see a Jewish elite thinking that's what he read or putting it all together and inferring it but it's really not there, nothing even close. In other words, the fear may be Dave's, not the average Joe's. This is from Density Divide:
Declining public faith in democracy and the rising global tide of populist nationalism have kindled a widespread and mounting sense of dread that the liberal order is unraveling.
The "dread" is among the elites! Notice also "declining public faith in democracy." Democracy is not faith-based, it's fact-based. Of course, evangelicals don't place their "faith" in democracy but up until 2016 they accepted democratic facts.
Anti-knowledge: In the Lippmann-Dewey debate Dewey argued that expanded education was the only solution necessary for the masses to vote in their rational interest. More instruction from the consensus manufacturers. Lippmann believed that no amount of education could prepare the masses to understand modern economics. It's a full-time job. The average Joe has got a real job to go to, a family to care for, baseball to watch, beer to drink, and so on. As I wrote yesterday, I agreed with Lippmann's diagnosis but not with his prescription. Since 2016 I also disagree with Dewey's prescription. Look, we have had a century of Dewey's civics classes; those without college degrees have still been instructed in responsible citizenship in a democracy. And 63M and 74M are proof that the instruction didn't take. Trump voters at a church in Iowa in 2016 heard Trump say that his followers were so loyal he could shoot a man on Fifth Avenue and not lose their support, but that did not make the impression on them that another Trump statement did, that in a Trump presidency, "Christianity will have power." That was talking their language! That is Christian Identity politics, Christian Nationalism, faith-based politics. If politics is based on faith, what is politics not based on? Facts. Voters in the Bible Belt know their civics, they reject knowledge for faith and power.
Which is the gravaman of The Density Divide. Population density; city versus rural. Black and Brown versus White. Harvard versus Iowa State. Power versus impotence .
the rise of populist nationalism a [is]a surprising and overlooked side-effect of urbanization...self-segregation of the population, I argue, created the polarized economic and cultural conditions that led to populist backlash.
Brooks:
People need a secure order to feel safe. Deprived of that, people legitimately feel cynicism and distrust, alienation and anomie. This precarity has created, in nation after nation, intense populist backlashes against the highly educated folks who have migrated to the cities and accrued significant economic, cultural and political power. Will Wilkinson of the Niskanen Center calls this the “Density Divide.”
That can properly be inferred from Wilkinson. But he wrote something more nuanced also. An inconvenient fact of current White attitudes is that uneducated Whites are not bad off! Wilkinson massages this as yes, they're doing okay; yes, a rising tide lifts all boats, yes, they are not living hand to mouth, yes, they have Social Security, Medicare, etc., but they're unhappy because those Black and Brown and non-Christians in the cities are really doing well: so it "can feel like loss." You see what he did there? Reality: they're not losing but they feel like they're losing. Their feelings become their reality. Wilkinson is conceding their alt-reality. It's bullshit. This is about White power.
Brooks:
For those in low status groups, [conspiracy theories] provide a sense of superiority: I possess important information most people do not have. For those who feel powerless, they provide agency: I have the power to reject “experts” and expose hidden cabals. As Cass Sunstein of Harvard Law School points out, they provide liberation: If I imagine my foes are completely malevolent, then I can use any tactic I want....
In the fervor of this enmity, millions of people have come to detest...the [elites in the cities],... who appear to have it so easy, who have such different values [democratic], who can be so condescending.
Saturday, November 28, 2020
266,014
Part One
There is a shitload to unpack in David Brook's most recent column and I have spent the last few hours unpacking. Dave cites to three scholarly sources, I read each except the 92-page article which I skimmed, and one of the scholarly sources, a tweet, cited to another which I also read.
Dave's topic is Republicans disconnect from reality which he frames as "We live in a country in epistemological crisis." Not believing experts, "Fake News!" allegations, "The election is rigged!", distrust, uneducated White disaffection. So, it's a crisis of knowledge and that is rooted in distrust which is rooted in getting burned by experts who the uneducated Whites did trust, disaffection: feeling uneducated, unappreciated, rooted in or resulting in, I'm not sure which is chicken and which is egg, unhappiness.
Now, Dave is a proud member and booster of the Establishment. He is an intellectual heir of Walter Lippmann, of elites "manufacturing consensus" among the great unwashed. Government in the early 20th century had just gotten too goddamned complex for the average Joe to make heads or tails of. Lippmann argued that elites like hisself should be gatekeepers of knowledge and should instruct the great unwashed on correct thinking. He recommended to Franklin D. Roosevelt a dictatorship. Lippmann debated the perpetually sunny democrat, John Dewey, on this. We had a pandemic the experts couldn't control in the early 20th century; we got into the Great War, we had the Great Depression that we couldn't figure how to get out of. There was nothing great about the body of work the experts performed for the average Joe in the early 20th century and he came to distrust them.Sounds like rational voting behavior to me! but not to Lippmann, who sided squarely with the experts The parallel to the early 21st century is subtle as a two-by-four between the eyes. I was insulted by Lippmann's prescription and sided firmly with Dewey (although I had to agree with Lippmann's diagnosis). Until 2016. All to say, Dave Brooks is a consent manufacturer.
This is a telling graph and I'm going to have to leave it with this telling graph and unwashed commentary on same on accounta I'm too tired:
So as you can see the study ends in 2016. We could have hoped for more. The most substantial drop in uneducated White happiness occurred when? In 2004-2008. What was going on then? Not much, just the wars in Afghanistan, in Iraq, based on faulty expert judgment that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction (remember “yellow cake”); not based on Saddam having any involvement in the 9/11 attacks; Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Cheney, the best and tbe brightest, remember? The foreign policy “Dream Team”! Crap, crap, and crap. Then in aught eight, Lehman Brothers and the beginning of the Great Recession. How’s that for history repeating itself? However, before getting too committed to that graph, remember "garbage in, garbage out?” The prettiest graphical representation of data is only as good as the data itself and on that point the authors of the study who created the graph write,Misery Loves Company
Friday, November 27, 2020
Pennsylvania to Trump: GET LOST!
264,838
294k-321k COVID-19 Deaths by Dec. 19: CDC
- This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely increase over the next 4 weeks, with 10,600 to 21,400 new deaths likely to be reported in the week ending December 19, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 294,000 to 321,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
Thursday, November 26, 2020
They Worked Yesterday!
2,297 Deaths while the lame quack Manslayer in chief was pardoning Flim Flam Flynn and other turkeys. Wow. 2,297 in one day. Dear God. The Nov. 23-25 trifecta looks, and is, nearly identical to May 4-6's:
..you get a virtually indistinguishable symmetrical image. Which is not good 't'all! Fuck, that is crazy.
I love Dr Darwin Buschman
"This is not an alternate viewpoint. This is racism, hate, lying, demagoguery, sociopathy, what else can I say. [They are] bad people. I will not sit at a table with them. I will not have a conversation with them."
Wednesday, November 25, 2020
261,971, Oh God
-European Sociological Review Vol. 10, No. 5, 499-518 (503, 506).
Tuesday, November 24, 2020
259,874. Boy oh boy
913 Monday. That's one of the two historically low reporting days. That's not low.
920 Sunday. That's the other low day. No low ditto.
171,462 new Infections Monday. That's be the high any damn day of the week a month ago.
Greatest man-made disaster in American history. Not even close. An unmitigated disaster.
Why does the District of Columbia Have Three Electoral Votes?
Élancée
Monday, November 23, 2020
Bad Day: 257,651
A Great Election, Against All Odds
Sunday, November 22, 2020
256,746 Killed by Trump Since Feb. 6
This thing is not over
I Lived Through A Stupid Coup. America Is Having One Now
I cannot refute this, in fact I think it's correct. Look, Trump is going to lose in court, as he already has lost in court. That's not why this thing isn't over. It's not over because:
-73.8M voted for undemocracy.
-70% of Republicans believe Biden is illegitimate.
-Fox has lost audience share to Newsmax because Fox isn't telling the 73.8M what they want to hear.
-Republicans in the House and Senate will not let Biden govern. They are going to do to him what they vowed to do the night of Obama's Inaugural Ball: refuse to pass anything that he wants; refuse to fill 300 federal judgeships; refuse to grant a hearing on Obama's Supreme Court nominee. They will oppose any TrumPlague relief President Biden sends up.
-What the Republicans did to Obama, are doing now (for the most part), will do to President Biden, are lawful. Legally, Trump does not have to concede. Trump will not concede, ever.
-Legally, Trump does not have to agree to a transition. He won't (I'm not so sure about that as to append "ever" to it.)
-There are 59 days to President Biden's inauguration. Legally, Trump does not have to show up.
-All Trump has to do is vacate the White House at 12:01 p.m. on January 20. When he does, there will be thousands and thousands of Disgusting people around the White House who do not want him to leave, ever. They will give Trump an armed, friendly au revoir escort and, since they'll already be there anyway, an armed, not-so-friendly "welcome" to President Biden.
-Trump immediately will go into 2024 campaign mode. He will continue to hold rallies, have his own media. He will hold onto those 73.8M and to the Republican Party apparatus. He already has a loyalist as chair of the RNC. His hold on the 73.8M and on the Party will prevent any other serious candidate challenging for the 2024 nomination.
There is now a permanent, immense--I'll be optimistic, let's say 40M--who knowingly voted for undemocracy and who will continue to support, fervently, an undemocratic person.
(I hereby give Mr. Samarajiva notice of my intent to steal this brilliant line from him: "American commentators say 'we’re like the third world now'...The third world from the Sun is Earth. You live here too.")
Saturday, November 21, 2020
255,823 Killed by Donald J. Trump, Illegitimate
Which is the near equal, in fact almost the exact, population of Lubbock, Texas, the birth place of Buddy Holly and our stand-in death place for over a quarter-million others. Lubbock is the 86th-largest city in America.
1,878 Killed yesterday, Nov. 20. This is the last full day of the reporting week, as reminder. Tomorrow, Sunday, and Monday the numbers will nosedive. The first four days of this reporting week have already made it a banner week for Trump. While he was losing over 30 lawsuits, including a biggie in Pennsylvania today, 7,300 people have lost their lives. When today's numbers are added in he'll have Killed ~9,000 in five days. Nice! Just eyeballing Hopkins' graph this five-day cluster will be Trump's best shootin' since May 5-9. It's an awful thing to look at, really. The four days so far look like a robust beast rearing up out of fire.
195,542 Infections yesterday. So close to the 200k Dr. Fauci predicted we could see months ago.
It is getting worse, far worse, Trump isn't doing anything about it, of course, and +'s and -'s, as I wrote just a couple days ago, you ain't seen nothin' yet. There are exactly sixty days until a real man takes charge. We're heading into Winter, into the holidays, people will ignore CDC's plea not to travel, they will not mask up or social distance. It is going to be a Black Christmas.
IHME: 471,000 Deaths by March 1
Elite Strike Force Team Confuses Georgia (state) with Georgia (country); Michigan with Minnesota, Loses All
Votes/SOS
Precinct Township Est. Voters
BENGHAZIA TWP 350%
MITIANELLO P-1 144%
MITIANELLO P-2 138%
ADJARAVILLE P-2 138%
ADJARAVILLE P-1 136%
BRADFORDILI TWP. 104%
VELD TWP. 104%
COLCHIS TWP 104%
KARTLI CITY 103%
ZUGDIDI TWP. 102%
KANDIYOHI TWP. 102%
LAKE LISI TWP. 102%
HOOKAH TWP. 102%
KAVERMO CARTELI TWP. 101%
KURA RIVER TWP. 101%
SHIDASIDE TWP. 101%
SHALIKASHVILI TWP 101%
OZLO 101%
AKHALTSIKHE TWP. 101%
An ethnic Georgian, native of Tbilsi, on staff at the Washington Post recognized the names of the voting precincts from his country of origin also they appeared in the affidavit written in Cyrillic.
Then, later in the day on Friday, after a meeting with Il Duce in the Oval Office, a delegation of elected Republicans from Michigan announced that they would certify the election according to "the will of the people" as evinced in their "votes" and had requested aid for Coronavirus. Trump asked how Coronavirus had voted.
Friday, November 20, 2020
The American Nightmare