Sunday, January 31, 2021

A Promised Land, Barack Obama

Along with [Gordon] Brown [Great Britain PM], the most consequential Europeans...ere German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy.


...temperamentallythe to leaders couldn't have been more different. Merkel...keeping her head down and earninga PhD in quantum chemistry...unwavering patience...stolid appearance...no-nonsense,analytical...famously suspicious of emotional outbursts and overblown rhetoric.. I figur[ed] thatin a German leader, an aversion to possible demagoguery was probably a healthy thing. Lol

Sarkozy, on the other hand, was all emotional outbursts and overblown rhetoric.(emphasis in original)...his primary, barely disguised interest,...as to be at the center of the action and take credity for whatever it was that might be worth taking credit for.

Sarkozy [was] respectful of Merkel's innate caution...Merkel [was] willing to overlook Sarkozy's idiosyncrasies but deft at reining in his more impulsive proposals...(509-511)

...

By the end of the [2009] London summit, the G20 had managed to strike a deal in response to the global financial crisis...In a rush of enthusiasm, Sarkozy grabbed both me and Tim [Geithner, Treasury Secretary] as we were about to leave the venue.

"This agreement is historic, Barack!" he said. "It has happened because of you...And Mr. Geithner here...he's magnificent!" Sarkozy then started chanting my Treasury secretary's last name like a fan at a football game, loudly enough to turn a few heads in the room. I had to laugh, not only at Tim's evident discomfort but also at the stricken expression on Angela Merkel's face--she had just finished looking over the wording of the communique and was now eyeing Sarkozy the way a mother eyes an unruly child." (522-23)


Oh, well-told by Obama. He sets the reader up perfectly for the coup de grace.

"Geithner! Geithner! Geithner!" Lolol.

He is so Fucked up

Five members of Trump's impeachment defense team withdrew yesterday. Know why? Trump insists that his defense be that the election was stolen. Of course the election was not stolen. The point here is that that is not a defense to the impeachment article. Let's say somebody steals your car. You cannot go break into their house and damage it and injure and kill people inside. Every defense attorney has had clients who give them legally uncognizable defenses. You explain why it's not a legal defense and that if you present that defense you are walking them into a conviction. They understand. I have never had a client who didn't understand. Course I never had a client with such a brain impediment as Trump. I would withdraw too if I had such a client. I'm tellin' ya, the elevator does not go to the top floor in that guy.

Covid-19: Day Ten of the Biden Presidency

142,091 new daily Cases reported Jan. 30, 2021.
2,732 new daily Deaths reported Jan. 30, 2021.

Both are down significantly That is expected; today, Sunday, is a reporting weekend day, as are Mondays. I do expect, however, that the NYT's 7-day daily averages and their 14-day percentage changes will be down, and more than has been the case, in all three categories, Cases, Hospitalizations, Deaths, and neither of those metrics will be affected by reporting artifact. Let us see...

Yes, they are. Deaths are down for the fourth consecutive 7-day iteration, to 3,147. The Cases 7-day daily average is down for the twenty-third straight iteration to 151,038. No reporting artifact there! And the 7-day Hospitalizations ave. is down for the nineteenth straight iteration to 105,691. Real progress, +'s and -'s, real progress under Biden.

Let's check the 14-day changes.

-33% Cases. Cases are just in free fall. It seems every iteration sees another one-third drop.
-18% Hospitalizations.
-5% Deaths.

To state the obvious, the disparity between Hospitalizations and Deaths continues and I still have no idea why. However, even the Deaths 14-day change is at least creeping down a percent or two. I don't think it has been as much as -5% recently. *Actually, it was -5% on Jan. 25. Beat me whip me.

This is a good report, folks. *It's still a good report.

Christians Hate America

 

Rep. Kinzinger: They claim 'I'm possessed by the devil'


Rep. Adam Kinzinger on Sunday offered a glimpse of what it’s like being one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump: Friends and family turned against him, and he was told he’s “possessed by the devil.”

“Look it’s really difficult. I mean, all of a sudden imagine everybody that supported you, or so it seems that way, your friends, your family, has turned against you.

...
“I think the Republican Party has lost its moral authority in a lot of areas"...

The Illinois Republican Party is expected to censure Kinzinger for his vote to impeach the president — what he referred to as “GOP cancel culture.” The same has happened for others like GOP Rep. Tom Rice of South Carolina after his vote to impeach. And last week, Rep. Matt Gaetz, (R-Fla.) went to Wyoming to rally against GOP. Rep. Liz Cheney for her moves against Trump.

Saturday, January 30, 2021

 Hawley Accuses Democrats of Conspiring with Lincoln Project




Christians Hate America

On September 3, 2020, [Rep. Marjorie Taylor] Greene [Christian-GA.] shared a meme to her Facebook page depicting herself holding an AR-15 style rifle next to a collage of pictures of Democratic congresswomen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib. Greene claimed that it was time for "strong conservative Christians to go on the offense against these socialists who want to rip our country apart".

Christians Hate America

Five Dominican Sisters from Hartland, Michigan at the conclusion of the Trump rally immediately preceding the 1/6 attack on America.

 

Proud Boys Charged With Conspiracy in Capitol Riot

...accusing two members of the far-right nationalist group of working together to obstruct and interfere with law enforcement officers protecting Congress during the final certification of the presidential election.

[I thought when I read the lede that the organization had been charged, not just two mopes. Why areyou not charging them and Oath Keepers with RICO?]

While more than 170 people have been charged in the deadly assault on the Capitol, most have been accused of relatively minor crimes like disorderly conduct and unlawful entry. The only other serious conspiracy charges in the inquiry have been brought against three members of the militia group the Oath Keepers, who are accused of organizing since a week after the November election to stop the certification of the vote.
...
[Proud Boys] has maintained links with both overt white supremacists and more mainstream Republicans

FT Arsenal 0 Manchester United 0

Leon, what channel is that dog grooming show on?


Manchester City, honestly
Are we really, really here?
I couldn’t sleep, seriously
If I could do the things you do
I’d be running around having to pee-pee
I’d be too excited to sleep
Manchester City, you make me feel, happy
Deliriously

Arsenal 0 Manchester United 0, 71'

Leon Mann
@Leon_Mann

I’m sat watching a dog grooming programme with the family instead of Arsenal v United and I’m totally fine with this.

Don’t judge me.

Man shrugging #LockdownLeon

1:56 PM · Jan 30, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
The lead article in the New York Times this morning is on how the race for a vaccine in the U.S. (Operation Warp Speed) came at the expense of drugs, anti-virals such as remdesivir, steroidal therapies like dexamethasone, which, although not providing immunity, still were very effective in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. The focus on vaccines led to production in record time, but time, it took time, and now that the vaccines are available the virus mutated into variants that made the vaccines less effective.

I am looking for one goddamn thing the Bidens could do now to get the numbers down and I thought these drugs might be that something. No: The acting FDA director told the Times, in the next couple of months the government plans to start large and well-organized trials for existing drugs that could be repurposed to fight Covid-19.

Still looking. Joe, why don't you get, say, your six leading government COVID experts together in a conference room and tell them, "I want to know right now the one thing each of you would do to get the Deaths numbers down today."
Nice of City’s Twitter feed.


Always Cheating FPL

@hailcheaters

It’s almost like Man City want to win this match exactly 1-0. No more, no less.

11:42 AM · Jan 30, 2021·Twitter for iPhone


It’s almost like you have a brain.

Newcastle with a shock 2-0 victory over seventh Everton betwixt the row houses. Still 1-0 to City now in the 85’. At 12:30 Eastern Colonies Time second-place ManU plays in London vs Arsenal.

Sam Hornby? Sam Hornby is City's goalkeeper? Who is Sam Hornby? Go Sam Hornby. 

COVID-19 Jan. 29, Day Nine Biden Presidency

166,113 new Cases reported.
3,604 new Deaths reported.

14-day changes (NYT)

-33% Cases
-17% Hospitalizations
-2% Deaths

The disparity among Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths increased over recent iterations.

7-day daily averages

155,880 Cases. Down and the lowest 7-day average since Nov. 17.
107,983 Hospitalizations. Down.
3,244 Deaths. Down.


 







If we don't win this match I'll eat my hat.

Friday, January 29, 2021

Herd Immunity? Never heard of it. We're all going to have to get vaccinated and mask up

46-1's crazy approach to COVID-19, which preceded 46-1 ignoring it and getting on with the important business of running for re-election and dancing to YMCA, was bad enough, right? Over 400k Deaths, over 24M Infections, thank you very not much Felony Trump. But, it gets worse.

Because COVID has been around, running wild actually, for over a year, despite 46-1's worst efforts, the virus had time to mutate. Ahh, you see? A virus is not a stupid thing, it laughs in your face when you suggest injecting light and bleach or chewing hydroxychloroquine to kill it and spends the time you lent it to become sneakier. So when you get around to being less stupid--or--when you elect a president who is less stupid, it will have evolved already into a variation that stays one step ahead of un-stupid.

The original COVID 19, if you got it, provided you with some short-term immunity to getting a repeat. The most worrisome of the variants, the South African, or B.1.351, has been known to be lightning- spreading. It has also been shown this week to be vaccine-elusive. Now yesterday, Jan. 28, it was reported that in a "small" trial in South Africa by a company working on a fourth vaccine, about one-third who had B.1.351 had previously had original COVID-19. Original COVID had not provided one-third with immunity to B.1.351. :) And as if to prove its nous B.1.351 has appeared in, of all places, South Carolina in two separate individuals who were not in contact one with the other and who hadn't traveled. That is, B.1.351 has landed and taken root in the U.S. As Teresa Kearns of North Charleston, South Carolina said, “This virus is a lot faster than we are."
[Dr Fauci] said the virus will continue to mutate, and vaccine manufacturers will have to be “nimble to be able to adjust readily” to reformulating the vaccines if needed.

[We are not going to be able to outrace this thing. The current vaccines will provide some protection but will become less effective as time goes on and the virus mutates. It’s clear we are in a game of catch up that we cannot win. We are going to have to reach herd immunity, ~90% of the pop. exposed and immune or immunized to stop it and at our current rate of vaccination only 50% of the population will be vaccinated six months from now! We have to continue to wear masks, there is just no other way of protecting ourselves.]

Dr. [Rochelle] Walensky [new head of CDC] also issued a plea to Americans to continue wearing masks and practice social distancing, and to avoid travel.

[False conundrum: wearing masks retards reaching herd immunity. We have to wear masks to keep from getting really sick and risk dying. The science is not robust yet but the data so far seems to show that the mask filters out a lethal dose of the virus.]

Earlier this month, the C.D.C. warned that the variant circulating in Britain could become the dominant source of infection in the United States and would likely lead to a surge in cases and deaths that could overwhelm hospitals. And given the speed at which the variant swept through that country, it is conceivable that by April it could make up a large fraction of infections in the United States.

[Just the worst.]

Day Eight

In the first hundred days of my administration, no margin for error existed. Every move we made counted. Every American was paying attention. Had we restarted the financial system? Had we ended the recession...Our scorecard was posted daily for everyone to see...My team and I carried that knowledge with us the minute we woke up, and it stayed with us until we went to bed.
Barack Obama, A Promised Land (459)

For January 28, President Biden's eighth day as president of the United States, the following scorecard is now posted (Johns Hopkins):

168,620 new Cases of COVID 19 reported.
4,000 new Deaths. That is only the fifth time in the 358 days of the epidemic that Deaths have topped 4k in one day.

The changes over the last fourteen days (NYT):

-34% Cases
-15% Hospitalizations
-2% Deaths

Almost identical to yesterday's iteration but Deaths have declined an additional one percent.

The daily averages over seven days (Jan 22-28):

159,625 Cases. That is down from yesterday's iteration; it has been down every iteration from Jan. 8.
110,163 Hospitalizations. This is down, as it has been since Jan. 10
3,263 Deaths. That is down. That is two successive days of declines. That is up 207 average daily Deaths over the last iteration of 46-1's presidency on Jan. 20. It is off the average daily peaks of Jan 11 through Jan. 17.

“The enemy is within" the House of Representatives

“We have members of Congress who want to bring guns on the floor and have threatened violence on other members of Congress."-Speaker Nancy Pelosi

Thursday, January 28, 2021

COVID-USA: 7 Days Under President Biden

Totals (Johns Hopkins) Cases (1/20/2020), Deaths (2/6/2020) 

25,756,351 Cases
432,971 Deaths

152,478 new Cases reported on Jan. 27, Biden's seventh full day
3,943 new Deaths ditto

14-day Changes (NYT)

-34% Cases
-14% Hospitalizations
-1% Deaths

All under water (good). No idea why the disparities between Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths but this is the cash value of those disparities: People are getting sicker and dying. Thirty-four percent fewer people are testing positive but only 14% fewer are going to hospital. That means people are getting sicker. And the next domino: only 1% fewer are dying. 

7-day Averages: One Full Week of President Biden

163,182 ave. daily Cases President Biden's first full week (1/21/2021 through 1/27/2021)
195,062 ave. daily Cases 46-1's last full week (1/14/2021 through 1/20/2021).
1,142,274 Americans tested positive for COVID in Biden's first week.
223,160 fewer people tested positive in President Biden first week than tested positive in 46-1's last week.

112,399 ave. daily Hospitalizations Biden's first week.
125,297 ave. daily Hospitalization's 46-1's last week.
786,793 Hospitalizations in Biden's first week.
90,286 fewer people hospitalized in Biden's first week than in 46-1's last week.

3,301 ave. daily Deaths Biden's first week.
3,078 ave. daily Deaths 46-1's last full week.
23,107 Died Biden's first week.
1,561 more people died Biden's first week than in 46-1's last week.

The raw numbers for President Biden's first full week tell a similar story to that of the 14-day changes, whatever the 7-day percentages are: Significantly fewer people contracted COVID, but those who did got sicker and died.
Ever since I started this blog I have written about decisions made by public officials as if I was in their position with the information that they had. I always thought that was the way to do it that was fairest to them. If I was going to criticize I should have as much of the information as they did--as much as a private person can get.

I did not often disagree with decisions that President Obama made. When I did it was at the margins, like he would lean 51% in this direction and I would maybe lean 51% in that (JCPOA is Exhibit 1). Not once with Obama did I think, "Where did that come from?" I felt that I had enough of the information that he had; moreso I knew how Obama's brain worked. He was sooo much like the best lawyers and judges I worked with that I felt I knew Obama personally. He was a lawyer, I was a lawyer; we were of the same generation, close to  the same age, both carried the yellow flag. Of course I didn't know him personally, but that was the depth of the mind meld. I could always understand why he decided what he decided. 

But with a sound process--one in which I was able to empty out my ego and really listen, following the facts and logic as best I could and considering them alongside my goals and my principles--I realized I could make tough decisions and still sleep easy at night, knowing at a minimum that no one in my position, given the same information, could have made the decision any better. A Promised Land (447)
Oh my goodness. City went topa the lig by beating West Brom Albion five nil on Tuesday at WBA. Impressive scoreline that but White People were nineteenth so no biggie. However. But. ManU then hosted dead-bottom SheffU yesterday. AND LOST. “Blades” carved out a 2-1 result. With help from David DeGea. David was unimpressive on both the Sheff’s goals, getting lost in a set piece on the first and weakly clearing, right to a “Blade” guy on the second. So City are first with 41 pernts to United’s 40, and City have a game in hand with a massive +13 goal ad over the “Red Devils.” That the kinda match gonna haunt yer ass for the rest of the season, it will. If the top stays close and ManU fall short they will point to a rainy Wednesday in January at Ole Trafford where it all went wrong.

Wednesday, January 27, 2021

The Loony Left



I fly the yellow flag. It is symbol of my political soul. But I embarrassed to be a liberal by this and embarrassed for San Francisco.

The San Francisco school board has voted to remove the names of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Dianne Feinstein and a number of other politicians, conquistadors and historical figures from public schools after officials deemed them unworthy of the honor.
...
Lincoln was on the list for his treatment of Native Americans...
...
“Abolitionist Frederick Douglass praised Lincoln. Several historians have refuted the advisory committee’s conclusion regarding Lincoln. Mount Vernon sent you a letter extolling Washington and his overall accomplishments, even after pointing out Washington’s dark history.”

Dianne Feinstein, California’s senior senator and San Francisco native who has dropped in popularity locally in recent years, was added to the list because as San Francisco mayor she replaced a vandalized Confederate flag that was part of a longstanding flag display in front of City Hall. 

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/27/san-francisco-schools-george-washington-abraham-lincoln-dianne-feinstein

The task force said that Dianne Feinstein’s name should be removed from her namesake school because, as mayor, she replaced a vandalized Confederate flag that was part of a long-standing flag display in front of City Hall. When the flag was pulled down a second time, she did not replace it. 

https://www.sfchronicle.com/education/amp/Washington-and-Lincoln-are-out-S-F-school-board-15900963.php
Well, the United States under President Biden is sho nuff faring better with vaccine supply than the EU, HOOOOO DOGGGIE.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-slams-astrazeneca-but-fails-in-push-for-vaccine-stella-kyriakides-pascal-soriot/amp/

Lovely Day













“Flat.” Flat is not the preferred shape in heads or Deaths graphs. After making sense for two iterations Hospitalizations and Deaths are now out of whack again.



















That’s not a toggly wobble or a firm, confident step there, that’s a mountain climber 🧗‍♀️ or high jumper, that is. That’s a daily average of 3,341 corpses Jan 20-26.

146,640 new Cases reported on Jan. 26, President Biden’s sixth full day in office. Which is very low, relatively, and very, very far from the goal, zero.

4,870 new Deaths reported on Jan. 26, Biden’s sixth day in office. Which is VERY high absolutely and very, VERY far from the goal, zero.

And so those are the lovely reports on this lovely day. Muaw.




 

Proud Boys leader was ‘prolific’ informer for law enforcement

(Reuters)

Enrique Tarrio, the leader of the Proud Boys extremist group, has a past as an informer for federal and local law enforcement, repeatedly working undercover for investigators after he was arrested in 2012, according to a former prosecutor and a transcript of a 2014 federal court proceeding obtained by Reuters.

In the Miami hearing, a federal prosecutor, a Federal Bureau of Investigation agent and Tarrio’s own lawyer described his undercover work and said he had helped authorities prosecute more than a dozen people in various cases involving drugs, gambling and human smuggling.
...
...The Proud Boys were involved in the deadly insurrection at the Capitol January 6.

The records uncovered by Reuters are startling because they show that a leader of a far-right group now under intense scrutiny by law enforcement was previously an active collaborator with criminal investigators.
...
The transcript from 2014 shines a new light on Tarrio’s past connections to law enforcement. During the hearing, the prosecutor and Tarrio’s defense attorney asked a judge to reduce the prison sentence of Tarrio and two co-defendants. They had pleaded guilty in a fraud case related to the relabeling and sale of stolen diabetes test kits.

The prosecutor said Tarrio’s information had led to the prosecution of 13 people on federal charges in two separate cases, and had helped local authorities investigate a gambling ring.
...
An FBI agent at the hearing called Tarrio a “key component” in local police investigations involving marijuana, cocaine and MDMA, or ecstasy. The Miami FBI office declined comment.

There is no evidence Tarrio has cooperated with authorities since then.

That's what you say.

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

The Christian Coup

I was thinking this afternoon: The FBI has rounded up 185 I think(?) perps but it was CLEAR this was orchestrated and planned from the top, by 46-1 and that the FBI and security agencies were not going to interfere—why else would the Christians have been so brazen, no attempt to hide their identity, “milling about” the floor, posing for selfies, sitting in Pence’s chair? They KNEW the cops weren’t going to interfere, they prayed and gave thanks to God “for these police letting us in”!; it was clear ahead of time that the security was unprepared and likely to be outmanned and outgunned; and it was clear that the Christians had inside help, the Capitol police, I strongly suspect Fascist members of Congress, and the FBI, still under the control of 46-1 at the time. And yet, no word of arrests of Capitol police or Members of Congress. So I wondered, “Is this now the coverup phase?”

Members of Congress were left stunned during a briefing from law enforcement about their failure to prepare for the insurrection at the US Capitol earlier this month, two members who attended a House Appropriations Committee briefing told CNN on Tuesday, with one saying it was "dumb luck" more people didn't die.

House Appropriations Committee Chair Rosa DeLauro, a Connecticut Democrat, said in a phone call with CNN that members were "shaking their heads in disbelief" throughout the briefing about the security breakdown in the lead up to January 6. During that briefing, acting US Capitol Police Chief Yogananda Pittman admitted her department knew there was a "strong potential for violence" targeting Congress, but did not take appropriate steps to prevent it.

DeLauro said the revelation left her stunned and multiple federal law enforcement agencies failed by not acting on the intelligence they had.

"They had the information. They did not act on it. And a question that I have, and one that I think we need to get to the bottom of, is who made the decision not to act?" DeLauro told CNN. 

"People said today that there was ample evidence, that the intelligence agencies had ample evidence, that an angry mob was going to descend on Washington with Congress' meeting to certify the election as the intended target," DeLauro added.


After participating in the hearing, Rep. Matt Cartwright, a Pennsylvania Democrat, told CNN, "It was only by pure dumb luck that elected officials, staffers and more Capitol policemen were not killed."

Cartwright said his theory of why there was not enough action to prepare was "that people were more worried about optics more than they were worried about security."

Cartwright said he directly asked those briefing the committee whether concerns about how security preparations would look was a reason for not acting.

"I got no denials, and I got a couple of confirmations," he told CNN, declining to say who specifically confirmed that optics were a motive behind inaction.

...


According to prepared remarks, Pittman told lawmakers that Capitol Police knew two days before the insurrection that militia and White supremacist groups would be at the Capitol on January 6, and some of those people planned to be armed.

Pittman outlined four things that made the department ill-equipped to respond to the attack: a lack of manpower, not having the right equipment on hand or easily accessible, a lack of consistency in following the process for sealing the building and communication over radios and the public address system being hard to hear during the attack....”

...

"While many questions remain, it is clear that the failure was not due to a lack of intelligence, but rather a failure to properly act on this intelligence. This is unacceptable...” -Rep Kay Granger, R-TX.


DeLauro said members were not given a clear answer when they repeatedly asked for who was responsible for the lack of preparedness and response.

"No one would answer the question," DeLauro said to CNN...


The Connecticut Democrat said there was no specific line of questioning around tours given prior to January 6 during the briefing, other than a mention from the FBI that all matters relating to the genesis of the insurrection are being investigated. She closed her remarks at the briefing by saying tours are something that need examined, and something she believed was being investigated.

[I don’t believe it. They are going to cover up the involvement of MC’s, their own in the FBI, and maybe Capitol Police.]

Cartwright shared that there was a "good discussion" about how to more "carefully vet" security forces, particularly those tasked with defending the Capitol.

[A “good discussion”: pablum. We need “good arrests.” “More carefully vet”: how about no Fifth Columnists? It would have been important to “vet” Fascist sympathizers out of Capitol Police before they could aid and abet a coup d’etat.]








The Short Unhappy Presidency of Joseph R. Biden, Jr.

 Biden said his administration was nearing a deal with Pfizer and Moderna for 200 million more doses by summer’s end. It may not speed up vaccinations.

 ...a time frame that his predecessor had also envisioned, and one that may not accelerate the current pace of vaccination for months.

The purchases would boost the administration’s total vaccine order by 50 percent, raising it from 400 million to 600 million doses — enough to vaccinate 300 million Americans by the “end of the summer, beginning of the fall,” Mr. Biden said.

Although the president has been in office for less than a week, he is already under intense pressure from a frustrated public to accelerate vaccinations. 

Dear God, this fucking thing will have mutated every which way by then. Yesterday Pfizer said their vaccine would be slightly less effective against the South African variant and Moderna said it was "studying" whether a change to its vaccine was needed.

Mr. President, this is just not acceptable. 425,000 Americans have been killed by this thing, 15,000 (!) in just the five short days of your presidency.  This is now the Biden Plague. 46-1 lost the election for his mishandling of this thing. Your "time frame" is the same "envisioned" by him? Then sir, your time frame as president is going to be the same as his!

This entire country has got to get vaccinated--yesterday. I don't care if you have got to nationalize Pfizer and Moderna,

This

Has

Got

To

Get

Done



151,112 new reported Cases on Joe Biden's watch on Jan. 25 (a reporting weekend day).
1,915 new reported Deaths on Jan. 25.


The 14-day changes,

-31% Cases
-11% Hospitalizations
-3% Deaths

mask a depressing change in the 7-day averages:
That's right. For the first time since the Jan.8 iteration the Cases 7-day average ticked UP. Yesterday it was 172,429, up from 170,559 in Jan. 24's iteration.

Hospitalizations stayed on their pronounced downturn but Deaths, Deaths are so disappointing,

Deaths have moved from drunken mini-toggle wobble to sober sure-foot STEP. UP each of the last two iterations to a daily average, Jan. 19-25, of 3,136.

Monday, January 25, 2021

As Virus Grows Stealthier, Vaccine Makers Reconsider Battle Plans



This fucking thing...

As the coronavirus assumes contagious new forms around the world, two drug makers reported on Monday that their vaccines, while still effective, offer less protection against one variant and began revising plans to turn back an evolving pathogen that has killed more than two million people.

The news from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech underscored a realization by scientists that the virus is changing more quickly than once thought, and may well continue to develop in ways that help it elude the vaccines being deployed worldwide.
...
The vaccines are the only ones authorized for emergency use in the United States.
...
And Merck, a leading drug company, on Monday abandoned two experimental coronavirus vaccines altogether, saying they did not produce a strong enough immune response against the original version of the virus.
...
Moderna said it also planned to begin testing whether giving patients a third shot of its original vaccine as a booster could help fend off newly emerging forms of the virus.

Three shots. Okay, enough. I don't want to read anymore.

Let's do the numbers:

25,261,902 Total Infections since Jan 20, 2020.
420,873 Deaths since Feb. 6, 2020.
132,537 New Infections under President Biden on June 24, 2021. (Monday is the last day of the reporting "weekend.")
1,776 Yes, 1776 Deaths on Jan. 24 under Biden in the country that declared independence in 1776. That is such an absurdly low figure, the lowest by over 900 since...last Monday.

14-day changes:

-33% Cases
-9% Hospitalizations
-5% Deaths

All three categories under water. It cannot be emphasized enough how good that is. No aberration, a solid trend, there is no mistaking it.

Cases continue to drop in the Times' 7-day average.
Hospitalizations likewise dropped again in the Jan 24 iteration.
Deaths...
Deaths:

Oh yeah! that's up, sure is. 3,085 Jan. 18-24, UP over Jan 17-23, UP over Jan. 16-22, wiping out the "progress" of FIVE less people Killed in the latter two iterations.

This fucking thing...

"...there was no getting around the damning, indisputable facts."

"Three months into my presidency,more people were suffering than when I began, and no one--including me--could be sure relief was in sight."
-President Barack Obama, A Promised Land (409)

President Biden, like President Obama, will not ignore and deny "damning, indisputable facts" as 46-1 did. Biden surely feels today a measure what Obama did, will feel like it a month into his presidency and almost certainly will feel it on April 20. Each day is a leaden snowflake. All the more reason to "think different," move mountains, level that goddamned coronavirus mountain. Facts are facts. A goal is a goal.

Sunday, January 24, 2021

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

This is good, guys!


















That's the New York Times' Cases 7-day average and the 14-day changes. You cannot find anywhere else in U.S. coronavirus history near the steep,sustained dive that Cases have taken since Jan. 8. That is  fifteen straight 7-day averages in sharp decline. Obviously, that is not a blip, that drop is 12-13 iterations beyond bliphood. And in the latest 14-day change iteration (through Jan.23) all three categories are in negative territory, the first that that has happened in awhile. And look at that number for Cases---31%!!!  Woo-HOO!

I have not been able to find an explanation why this has occurred, but occurred it has.

Now Deaths...



















...Deaths are a downer, but not much. In the Jan. 21 iteration of the 7-day average there were 3,078 Deaths per day; in the 22nd's, 3,076, down two; in yesterday's, 3,073, down three A WHOLE FIVE in three days of seven-days. That's an insult to down.

Those are all from NYT. These are from Johns Hopkins:

Joe Biden is responsible for 172,650 new Infections reported on Jan. 23.
Joe Biden is responsible for 3,332 new Deaths reported on Jan. 23.

The goal in both is ZERO. Those are not zero. Those are a FAIL.

What in the world is this about?


New iPhone icon.

Look who is atop the Premier League with half its matches played.

Glad to see Greater Manchester on top. Expected that would be a perennial thing when Pep and Mou were hired at the same time but it didn’t work out that way. 
Ole Gunnar Solskjær gets a big Olé. City have a slight advantage with the game in hand. I would love to see the title come down to those two clubs like it did in 2012.

Saturday, January 23, 2021

Alright, I was just on the Times' website checking the headlines:

U.S. Surpasses 25 Million Coronavirus Cases, a Staggering Tally

President Biden predicts that U.S. pandemic deaths will exceed 600,000. 



That was last updated at 10:04.

Hopkins still has it under 25M, barely, 24,991,122. The Times says we crossed 25M Saturday afternoon. The Times and Hopkins have always been slightly out of sync.

Continuing from the Times:

Experts now fear that any signs of progress could be undone by the emergence of new variants that appear to be more contagious.

[They reported same yesterday]
...
Epidemiologists say the true number of infections is probably much higher than the official tallies.

[They have reported that for months.]

On what frustrates me most, Biden's prediction of a total 600k U.S. Deaths:


[No, no, no, no, not: Project when virus deaths will be Zero;  take Z-Day and accelerate it.]

President Biden, by predicting on Friday that the coronavirus-related U.S. death toll would eventually be well over 600,000, could in the end be right.

Or, like others who have tried to forecast the figure, he could be wrong.

Back in March, when Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the U.S. government’s top infectious disease specialist, said that the pandemic could kill 100,000 to 240,000 people in the country, some thought his projection was too grim to be possible.

On Tuesday, the country surpassed 400,000 deaths. And on Thursday, Mr. Biden predicted — on his first full day on the job — that the death toll would top 500,000 next month, an estimate supported by models from public health experts.

“The virus is surging. We’re 400,000 dead, expected to reach well over 600,000,” Mr. Biden said on Friday evening. “No matter how you look at it, we need to act.”

[Yes, sir]

Meanwhile, an aggregate forecast from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention comprising various independent models projects that 465,000 to 508,000 deaths could be reported by Feb. 13.

[He'll we got 465k dicked]

At many points over the past year, even dire death toll projections have fallen short of reality. The U.S. failed to bring the virus under control when it had a chance to do so in the spring. New, more transmissible variants now make the outlook for the virus harder to predict.

[It is just a tenacious, highly mobile enemy. We are not going to achieve herd immunity until a combination of vaccines and infections reach, I don't know what Fauci's sincere best estimate is of when herd kicks in, I know he said 70% at one point then 75% and I think he said his gut told him it was 80%-85%. Googling how many people in U.S. have been vaccinated I get 1.6M have been "fully vaccinated," two doses I presume, and 10.6 have received "at least one dose." I'm going to be optimistic and call it 11M have been vaccinated. Add that to 25M who have been infected (NOT subtracting out those who have died (unreasonably optimistic use of stats by me) and you get 36M who are vaccinated one way or another. The current population of the U.S. is 328.2M. That's 10.96% of the population. We need. In for an optimistic dime, in for an optimistic dollar. We have to vaccinate one way or the other 246,15M people to reach herd, We have to vaccinate 210.15M more people than we've already vaccinated.

I refuse to accept "well over 600k Deaths". The goal is zero more Deaths EVER. I want Biden's and CDC'S prediction of when we will reach zero daily Deaths and I want to know their plan to get to zero. No more predictions of 500k or 600k Deaths. When will we reach zero deaths and what is your plan specifically to get to zero post-haste. There is a malign psychological mindset produced when you  project Failure. You never consider the GOAL and work to minimize the Failure, which is different than succeeding. To restate: What is your plan Mr. President to reach your GOAL. That is your baseline and your eyes should be laser-focused on the goal line and what you can do to cross the goal line--think creatively Mr. President, think with a desperate mindset and don't play for field position. Getin the fucking endzone, don't kee the score of defeat "respectable." Go to bet sick of failure tonight and just win baby.

Jan. 22: 189,925 Reported New Infections; 3,758 Deaths on President Biden's Watch

24,985,689 Infections since Jan. 20, 2020
417,382 Deaths since Feb. 6, 2020

Well, I was wrong about the 7-day Deaths average. I predicted it would go up, it went down--by two (eye roll, one hand clapping) from 3,078 to 3,076.

Both Cases and Deaths continue on their down slope over seven days.

The 14-day changes:

-30% Cases
-5% Hospitalizations
Flat Deaths

Okay! Hospitalizations and Deaths are coming together. That's good.

Now recall that today, Saturday, is the last full day of the volunteers' reporting week. Sunday and Monday are always weak number days, so are the numbers, daily, 7-day averages, 14-day changes are going to dip in the next two days.

Biden's first two daily numbers have been bad, baad.

 

Protests Swell Across Russia Calling For The Release Of Kremlin Critic Alexei Navalny

(Oh yeah, I forgot to post that after Alexei was released from hospital in Germany he immediately returned to Russia and was immediately arrested.)

Tens of thousands of Russians took to the streets...from the port city of Vladivostok in the east to the capital of Moscow seven time zones away in the west...in open defiance of warnings from Russian authorities that the demonstrations have been deemed illegal.

 In Moscow, protesters gathered in Pushkin Square for what appeared to be the largest of the day's protests. 

In all...protests were planned across 90 cities, including the Siberian city of Yakutsk, where temperatures plunged to minus 60 Fahrenheit.

Police and protesters clashed in multiple cities. By 10:00 p.m. Moscow time, more than 2,600 demonstrators across the country had been detained, according to OVD-Info, an activist group that monitors arrests at protests. The group said it had never tracked so many arrests.

In a statement, the [BIDEN 😄] State Department condemned the Russian government for its use of "harsh tactics against protesters and journalists," and called on Moscow to release all those who had been detained "for exercising their universal rights," including Navalny.

"Continued efforts to suppress Russians' rights to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression, the arrest of opposition figure Aleksey Navalny, and the crackdown on protests that followed are troubling indications of further restrictions on civil society and fundamental freedoms," said spokesperson Ned Price. "The United States will stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our allies and partners in defense of human rights – whether in Russia or wherever they come under threat," said Price.
(NPR)

As a matter of information that took me three hours.



Good morning my fellow democrats. Felt duty compels me to deaden your Saturday morning with this restatement on this evergreen topic, the trigger for which shall go uncited as it is people, earnest, sincere, learned people who kill clear thought, triggers do not kill clear thought. The perennial topic that compels this restatement is political legitimacy.

Political legitimacy is fecund to creative, informed speculation on Hitler's Germany, Mao's China, Putin's Russia, and the undersigned has added his pygmies to this well-populated race. It comes too naturally to many, especially those of the undisciplined Americanoid mutation, to send forth their issue on the topic into political ecosystems, I refer here to democracies, where the young shoots wither and fail for there can be only numbing thought, apodictic, tautological, dead-head thought on the subject of political legitimacy in democracies. It is right there in the glossary, pilgrim, democracies are legitimate because they are output of precisely tabulated will of the people, will of the people being the gold standard of political legitimacy. 

It is not therefore efficient usage of pixels or kilobytes, keystrokes or gray matter on "what went wrong" in the 11/8/2016 Catastrophe in America; it is more efficient to explore what very nearly occurred in the Apocalyptic Interregnum, November 3, 2020-January 20, 2021, but even on that latter energy, expended on "what went wrong" is more akin to the energy expended in securing the deck furnishings on RMS Titanic on 5/31/1911. In all three cases an unsinkable man-made structure was suddenly swamped. The creations of man's ingenuity are only as perfect as the materials that go into their construction, in the subject case of this post, a democracy (being by its own definition, legitimate) is only as good as the people who vote. A democratic people may, as they did in Germany in the 1930's, democratically choose a dictator and thereby kill democracy. The credit or fault belongs to the people in a democracy, not to the personages chosen by them as instruments of their will.

By no means do I intend to exempt Adolph Hitler or Vladimir Putin or Donald Trump, the Republican Party, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Mo-that-guy-from-Alabama, et al of their crimes. I do intend with this restatement, as in numerous prior statements, to snatch vigorously away the search light from the hand of the inquisitor and replace it with a looking glass for his better contemplation and comprehension.

It is a matter of verifiable record that the anti-democratic Donald Trump became president of the United States with a minority 46.1% share of the popular vote, -2.7M in the raw vote total; that he received 63M individual votes in 2016, and a clear 304 vote majority in the Electoral College; that the aforesaid Trump was soundly rejected in 2020 by a popular vote margin of 4.5%, -7M in the raw vote total, received only 232 of 538 Electoral votes, while nonetheless garnering a stunning 74.2M individual votes, a record--no other close--for a Loser; and that he stole the first and attempted a coup d'etat in the second to frustrate the will of the people. Yes, he did so with dezinformatsiya and the Big Lie procured from, and furnished to him by, the Russian Federation from its well-stocked anti-democracy toolbox; yes, those tools disoriented the American public, but that last speaks to the lack of quality of the American mind, no? It is true that that mind from the nation's birth has been plagued by mental disease or defect, often with attendant violence, which renders it vulnerable to delirium from the oil of different snakes: Christianity, Protestantism particularly, folk medicine, demagoguery from pulpit or soap box, anti-intellectualism, folk wisdom; that its deficiencies have made susceptible to Great Awakenings which come only to those in permanent slumber. Yes, all of that is true. That is the point, Bunky. It's the quality-of-mind thing. One must allow however that it is also true that in all of her history the American voter had somehow overcome these native disadvantages and, combined with her fellows, behaved as in the eminent political scientist V.O. Key, Jr.'s term, The Responsible Electorate, rational and self-interested, swatting away -isms of left and right with alacrity, evincing a quotidian community morality, goodness, empathy, common sense. Never elected a fascist. 

The temptation thus to render verdict on 2016 and 2020 as a one-off...as two-offs.  Precisely 74,223,744 pieces of evidence can be lifted onto the scales of justice to sway that verdict. There is no such thing as a "two-off." True, it seems that number is surely less and falling after the little upset of 1/6/2021. True, he is really, most sincerely gone and is permanently muted by his fave disinformation signals. But the point here, again, is not him, not even him and the McEnany's and Kellyanne Conway's and Limbaugh's and Cruz's and Josh's and Mo's, the enablers, the point is that their snake oil could not be sold, could not be consumed, without those 74,223,744 imbibers. It is them, 46.9% of us. Therefore,

Send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.

Friday, January 22, 2021

Jan. 21, 2021: 193,165 Reported Infected with Biden Plague; 4,202 Killed

That hurt. That is 193,165 and 4,202 Failures on his first day. 4,202 is third-high all-time. 

414,004 Total Killed by Covid 19 U.S.A. since 2/6/2020.
24,817,934 Total Infected since 1/20/2020.
Okay, I'm not looking forward to this (I never do), especially to this night's COVID numbers (for Nov. 21st) because they're the first entirely on President Biden's watch. No, they're those reported on Nov. 21, not those who were sickened or died on Nov. 21; yes, he inherited a mess, multiple messes, this is just one of them; and no, he cannot be expected to run to the hospital and try to save somebody or personally deliver a ventilator or whatever, but. But he signed up for this job and we are not playing Ron Klain's or CDC's, expectations game here; the goal is ZERO, any non-zero number is FAILURE. There is going to be accountability and that is going to start with a simple, reasonable bright-line rule: those reported positive and those reported dead on Nov. 21 were reported sickened or dead on President Biden's watch and not on 46-1's. To it, then...
I have noticed this previously about our new president and was reminded of it again reading tonight: At the center of an unprecedented cataclysm of storms existentially challenging to him personally and to his nation, Joe Biden exudes a preternatural calm, not the oblivious calm of his predecessor, but a knowing calm of one who sees the entire system as from on high and who sees the way to navigate safely. I first saw this "on high-ness" in his Gettysburg speech.

The Hill, I think it is, has this political interview format where they have real interviewer voices coming out of cartoon talking heads. Doing an interview that way, I don’t know how to explain it, it's like a gauzy layer between interviewer and interviewee or something that permits more aggressive questioning (?) or takes the sting out of the aggressive questioning. It also encourages the interviewee to be more open, like, what, you can’t be honest with a cartoon? Try to spin a cartoon? Get pissed at a cartoon? It gets inside the viewer's head too. They are also Loony Tunes length, 3'-6'. It is a BRILLIANT way of conducting a serious interview. I never saw it done before. It's strange to watch. 

Ah, Inside the Hill. This is the one I watched, and the only one.

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Falling, but Variants Could Erase Progress

New daily cases are starting to slow in what some health experts see as a turning point. But they warn of a bumpy vaccination rollout amid the emergence of more contagious variants.


See, one full day of President Biden! lol


Cases really have been falling. This is the Times' 7-day average graph.













That is a "normal" curve for Deaths, which occur two-four weeks after infection. The Cases average peaked on Jan. 8. The slight uptick in the Jan. 20-21 iterations can be expected to continue as that enormous bulk of Cases works its way through.











I still do not understand the lack of correlation between Deaths and Hospitalizations. These are the Times' 14-day changes:


-21% Cases
-3% Hospitalizations
+11% Deaths

It's just common sense that the sequence is Cases to Hospitalizations to Deaths so I don't understand how Hospitalizations have declined by 3% yet Deaths risen. And that has been out of whack for awhile now. I previously speculated that maybe hospitalizations were at capacity and people were dying at home but 1) We would have read something about that had that been the case, and 2) It has continued. Hospitalizations have not been always negative, they were flat recently, but as you can see the 7-day average has been on a clear decline.




















The peak there is Jan. 12. Well, I can force sense into that. I don't know what the "normal" lag time is between infection and hospitalization, nor between hospitalization and death--shorter than the two-four weeks from infection to death though,obviously. So, if Hospitalizations peaked on the 12th and Deaths started upticking on the 20th: eight days. Deaths for today should tick down but I'll betcha they don't.

Thursday, January 21, 2021

Final Trump COVID 19 Casualties

409,877 Killed. That is more in less than one year than all U.S. Deaths from all causes in the four years of World War II.

24,619,597 Sickened.

President Biden, the figures presented here in the future will also include the number Killed and Sickened on your watch. 

14-day changes:

-16% Cases
-2% Hospitalizations
+14% Deaths

Starbucks Riots

You see what I mean, man? No breaks. This was the welcoming for President Biden in Seattle and Portland yesterday--the day he was inaugurated. What they want is to

Suck
A
Dick












That was the...wait a minute wait a minute wait a minute. Who are these people?




















That's Democratic Party HQ above, and below.










Are we entirely sure Proud Boyz and Q-begone have been demoralized?

I want you to show me a melanin-enriched person in any of these photos.









They even look like cockroaches. That's the entire fucking crowd in Seattle--the whole thing! Do you realize how pathetically small, like your dicks, that is? 














What is that, 30...Are you in compliance with local affirmative action ordinances?!...whities? Whoever you really are, was this a true, in spirit and law, Equal Opportunity riot? 

You are an EMBARRASSMENT to professional rioters everywhere.