He is a slight player, only 6’2” 190 lbs, he does not intimidate anybody with his size, pedigree, or mouth. Only his game. He was the “RevelatNunn” last season but coach Erik Spoelstra went away from him in the resumed season and playoffs. I’m sure for good reason. He became the forgotten man. But tonight, as in many nights in the season past, he was the main man again in Jimmy Butler’s absence, with a team high 24 points on 8/15 shooting and 4/8 from range, and he delivered the 🗡 again that sealed the game. K-Nunn is a revelation.
Sunday, February 28, 2021
I was in a gallery today walking around looking at things. There was a wall with kids’ photographs framed. I immediately stopped at this one.
And the more I looked at this one the more arrested by it I became.
The face, the facial expression, the direct eyes, even the frontal, forward body language—that, to me, is an extaordinary photograph of a child.
We Had ‘Em All The Way!
😑
“Heat” 109 Hotlanta 99 FT. Miami wins their sixth in a row. Without J-Buts.
HT MIA 54 ATL 44
It’s over.
It’s only halftime!
It’s over.
Anything can happen in an NBA game!
Except when the “Hawks” are playing.
It ain’t over till the fat lady sings!
It’s over.
25-18, :26.2 1Q
Atlanta has always sucked in my memory. Is that true?...
The Hawks currently own the second-longest drought (behind the Sacramento Kings) of not winning an NBA championship at 60 seasons.
Miami 20 Atlanta 16, 1:57 1Q
Oh my God Spo started Kelly Olynyk again tonight. K.O. should be starting for the Rapid City Thrillers, not an NBA team.
COVID-19 BIDEN+38
For once I do not find the 14-day changes as meaningful at catching trends as I do the 7-day daily Cases average:
Deaths have declined the last two iterations of the 7-day and stand tonight at 2,064.
–28% Cases
–30% Hospitalizations
–22% Deaths
Very similar to the Times 7-day average line—essentially flat.
The Feb. 27 7-day ave. is down by five cases to 67,468. FIVE. The trend line is essentially flat since Feb. 21. Deceptively flat since Cases are actually UP ~2,000/day but look at the line compared to Jan. 8-Feb. 20: It is clearly on a plateau.
Deaths have declined the last two iterations of the 7-day and stand tonight at 2,064.
Hospitalizations are down in the 7-day (53,341), as they have been since Jan. 11 buy the tail of that trend is beginning to flatten if you squint.
3.86% Deaths-Hospitalizations rate, identical to the Feb. 26 iteration.
Now the 14-day changes-
–28% Cases
–30% Hospitalizations
–22% Deaths
Dailies Feb. 27
Today is a reporting lag day.
68,071 Cases. Down. This is the graph of the last five days from Johns Hopkins:
1,536 Deaths. Down.
Grade-B
The Gap Widens
This has become a boring soccer season in England. The also-rans just will not seperate themselves. Today, three clubs could have, none did. Third Leicester lost at HOME to 10th Arsenal, and then second Man-U played in London against fifth Chelsea. The result was a 0-0 draw. That’s lame. Nobody wants badly enough to be the clear runner-up. So the gap at the top widened today. Manchester City are now twelve points clear of second-place United, thirteen points in front of Leicester and eighteen points ahead of Chelsea. The defending champions, Liverpool, are in sixth place nineteen points off City’s pace. It’s pathetic.
Oh my, impressive, impressive win this morning by tenth Arsenal at third Leicester. The Gunners won comfortably in the end, 3-1, but not before Leicester had taken the 1-0 lead in the 6th’, and at home! David Luiz knotted it in the 39th’ and then Alexandre Lacazette put Arsenal ahead on a PK right before the half. Pepe finished the scoring after just 52’. Massively impressive win for Mikel Arteta’s side.
Saturday, February 27, 2021
Erik Spoelstra’s DDoS D
These are excerpts from the Salt Lake Tribune on last night’s game:
“They played different coverages — they played zone, they hedged, they blitzed, they switched. They did everything.”-Donovan Mitchell.
...
NBA analyst and former assistant coach Steve Jones Jr. noted on social media in the aftermath of a game,... “Multiple coverages is the key these days.”
There have been a lot of different looks tried against the Jazz this year in an effort to find a way to somehow slow down both their record-setting 3-point barrage and their ability to attack the paint. Opponents have often resorted to simply switching, though Utah’s mostly figured that out. Some teams are now fully committed to running them off the line — only to get wrecked by dribble penetration and lobs.
Typically when an opponent unleashes some new look, the Jazz require a bit of game time to sort it out before eventually acclimating as the game goes along and ultimately exploiting...it...
...
If you give the Jazz but one defensive look in a game, it takes them a bit to adjust, but they eventually exploit it. The Heat were able to fluidly switch [among] coverages Friday night, and the Jazz spent all game adjusting.
And as a result, their execution suffered: 40 of 94 from the field (42.6%) and 15 of 46 from 3-point range (32.6%).
...
Several of [head coach Quinn] Snyder’s players specifically pointed to the spacing as the primary culprit, how Miami’s ever-shifting alignments constantly had Jazz players in the wrong spots.
“Tonight...it kind of got us out of our rhythm.”-Mike Conley.
...
Both Mitchell and [Rudy] Gobert lamented Utah’s lack of transition attack, rightly pointing out that improving upon their meager six fast break points could have prevented the Heat from setting up such effective defenses...
...
With the Heat so successful against the Jazz on Friday, future opponents are bound to employ a similar strategy.
Spo’s a genius.
Pep Guardiola and City have eased back to take a huge leap forward
Manchester City have changed the way they press...though West Ham did offer some hope to the chasing pack...
...
The Premier League title is as good as done...but none of this was inevitable. [Before twenty straight], their squad looked flat and their recruitment looked questionable. Guardiola’s attempts to modify the approach seemed only to be causing hesitancy.
[They] made seven changes to the side that dismissed Gladbach on Wednesday...[one of them Cancelo]
The intensity of the press is something notoriously difficult to measure statistically because there are so many variables, but looking at the proportion of pressures a side makes that take place in the opposition’s final third is perhaps as useful as any:...For the previous three seasons City and Liverpool vied with each other at the top of that chart, but this season Liverpool are way out in front while City are fifth. They have eased back and, now that the initial teething problems that were exploited most obviously by Leicester are past, no longer appear so vulnerable to the ball played in behind them.
[I din’t understand that point. It would seem to me that pressuring in the opponent’s "last third,” in front of the opponent’s goal, would be a good thing. Where City has been victimized time and again by Leicester was in midfield.]
Perhaps the chances West Ham did create offer opponents some hope. City can be caught out by balls behind the full-back, especially perhaps when Oleksandr Zinchenko rather than João Cancelo plays on the left: it was that route that brought both the chance Antonio struck against the post and his goal. Decent crosses, such as the one that led to the late Issa Diop header, can catch out any side. And Ederson was oddly skittish with his kicking.
[I watched the 11' of highlights that were available, I didn't see Ederson skittish with his kicking. . He had a hard collision very early on but there was no mention of it for the rest of the match.]
...with Sergio Agüero making his first start since October, there was perhaps a slight lack of creativity. [I was actually worried about this. Positionless was a creature of necessity with Kun out, it has worked marvelously. Now with Kun back?]
C6VID-19 BIDEN+37
14-day changes
29% Cases30% Hospitalizations
20% Deaths
Interesting. Cases fell less than Hospitalizations.
7-day daily averages
69,483 Cases. Up 33 cases. About as negligible a move possible.
69,483 Cases. Up 33 cases. About as negligible a move possible.
54,678 Hospitalizations. Down.
2,114 Deaths. Down.
3.86% Deaths-Hospitalizations rate. down one one-hundredths of a percent.
Dailies for Feb. 26
73,006 Cases. Down.
2,151 Deaths. Down.
Grade: B
“Capitalism off the rails”
FT City 2 West Ham 1
I had my alarm set for 7 a.m.—Monday through Friday. So we won, our 20th in a row. *blink*. Hammerheads a goo ball club, too. Fourth. City are the best.
Do the “Heat” Need a Number 5? :)
Kelly Olynyk, the playing center had an awful night. He was absolutely lost this entire game. “What a slump Olynyk is in. He’s 2/29 from three in his last 8 games including tonight” (with :55 left in 1Q tonight), said “Heat” play-by-play Eric Reid. K.O. and the entire “Heat” D left the middle of the paint completely unprotected tonight.
How can this play work for Utah? K.O. is under the basket, the “Jazz” player with the ball at the 3-point line to Olynyk’s left. But instead of shooting he passes entirely across the lane to another “Jazzman” at the opposite 3-point line. Olynyk closes...
That is putrid.
Olynyk out of the paint as another “Jazz” gets to the rim.
Olynyk is not strong enough to muscle out, not quick enough to rotate—He’s a load—and can’t hit a three. What is he doing out there?
The Miami defense has left the paint completely uncovered! That’s Kelly at the top of the key.
See ya later alligator. And one on K.O.
“Kelly a little tentative on his shot,” said Eric Reid, which missed.
A naked lane again.
3:36 left to play and the “Heat” playing a box and none.
The ball carrier penetrates the inviting hole in the middle and gets the basket and the foul.
And the Utah guy drives by him as if K.O. was a statue.
Another Utah dunk. I don’t know who the fifth “Heat” defender is here since he’s obliterated by 7’1” Rudy Golbert.
Look at the space in the middle the “Heat” give Utah!
MIA’s interior defense was M.I.A. tonight. An untouched ole formation directing the Utah player to the basket.
Crunch time, Okynyk beaten off the dribble and commits the foul.
Olynyk fouled out of this game. He was in the starting five, played starters minutes and finished with a horror of a stat line, 8 points on 3/8 shooting, 5 rebounds, one assist, one turnover, 6 fouls, and a -8 when he was on the floor. Spoelstra cannot start Olynyk again until and if he shakes this funk. He could have lost this game for Miami.
Friday, February 26, 2021
B.A.D.
The “Heat” needed B.A.D. to win this one. Jimmy was game high with 33 on 12/22, 10 ‘bounds, and 8 assists. Bam 19,11, and 7, and the Dragon 26 (9/15). Now 16-17 on the season, Miami is comin’.
GAME
Miami wins its fifth in a row, beating the team with the best record in the Association 124-116.
MIA 114 UT 107, 4:46 4Q
“Jazz” are tired. They have gone stone cold. Neither team has made a field goal in over 2’!
Worthless 538
538, after blowing the 2016 Catastrophe, has been calculating in-game odds for ESPN. Look at how they change their meaningless percentages in just seconds:
Ridiculous.
COVID-19 BIDEN+36
I don’t like doing this at night. It puts me in a bad mood. These stats were updated at 2:34 p.m.
14-day changes
32% Cases
30% Hospitalizations
22% Deaths
7-day daily averages
69,450 Cases Feb. 25. Up.
55,930 Hospitalizations. Down. Not as much as Cases, but more than Deaths.
2,165 Deaths. Down. Down just twenty-three but Down.
3.87% Deaths-Hospitalizations rate. Up.
Dailies
77,291 new Cases reported Feb. 25. Up. Up for the fourth straight day but tiny up.
2,417 Deaths. Down substantially. The 3,230 spike on Feb. 24 is suspicious to me. It’s bookended by 2,350 on Feb. 23 and 2,417 Feb. 25. I have deja vu that I have written that same thing recently(?) but I don’t see a similar pattern in the Johnnies graph.
Sum:😶
Associated Press: Versatile, tactically astute and boasting the creativity of a midfield playmaker, Joao Cancelo is a one-of-a-kind defender who is proving to be Manchester’s City unlikely secret weapon this season.
...
Seeking to push more players into offensive positions, Guardiola has devised a system that enables the technically gifted Cancelo to drift from full back into a deep-lying midfield role to supplement City attacks.
It was no surprise, therefore, to see Cancelo in the right position to intercept a poor pass out from the back by Gladbach...and then pick out Silva with an inswinging cross to the back post...
...
Seeking to push more players into offensive positions, Guardiola has devised a system that enables the technically gifted Cancelo to drift from full back into a deep-lying midfield role to supplement City attacks.
It was no surprise, therefore, to see Cancelo in the right position to intercept a poor pass out from the back by Gladbach...and then pick out Silva with an inswinging cross to the back post...
Richard Jolly:...there is a case for crowning Cancelo the most influential footballer in England. He has been the catalyst for the tactical coup that has propelled City to 19 consecutive wins, the hybrid of full-back and midfielder who defends ...but then moves infield and upfield to act as a playmaker...A converted winger is defender, passer and crosser...[a] full-back with the technical skills and positional discipline to double up as a midfielder in what is becoming a trademark Guardiola ploy, [I don't understand "trademark ploy"] Cancelo feels the Premier League’s accidental revolutionary.
A year ago, Guardiola was ambivalent about Cancelo...Suffice to say his early plans for 2020/21 did not revolve around one of his biggest buys.
And then COVID-19 happened.
A season that began inauspiciously...has developed in unexpected ways. He became City’s first-choice left-back, then their preferred right-back. Aymeric Laporte was once their premier centre-back; now it seems he owes his place when he does appear to Cancelo, starting only when the Portuguese is the left-back.
...his unique, fusion role...
...it is a tribute to Cancelo’s versatility that he has responded to unorthodox ideas, it also illustrates Guardiola’s adaptability...what might be statistically his best defence is not the result of perfect planning. He has created something special from who was available, not who he might ideally have wanted.
...
So this is a very 2021 situation. If, as expected, City do become champions, it will be in part because they have a £60 million full-back whose potential lay untapped in the past...Instead of being rejected, he has been reinvented. Instead of being confused, Cancelo is confusing opponents. If it depended on him, now City depend on their radical original.
Joao Cancelo is Special: Manchester City’s New Talisman Has Arrived
He has done things you don’t expect. Like a full back to slide in the center of the pitch and get shots off from the edge of the box.He creates and overloads and can defend decently, too.
Thursday, February 25, 2021
“We know that members of the militia groups that were present on Jan. 6 have stated their desires that they want to blow up the Capitol and kill as many members as possible, with a direct nexus to the State of the Union.”
Yogananda D. Pittman, acting chief of Capitol Police, in testimony Thursday before the House of Representatives subcommittee on Appropriations. The date of the SOTU has not been determined. It was supposed to be Feb. 23.
I do not believe that there is a credible threat.
COVID-19 BIDEN+35. Bad.
The Coronavirus Is Plotting a Comeback. Here’s Our Chance to Stop It for Good.-NYT, Apoorva Mandavilli
Don’t call it a comeback, ‘cause it’s been here for a year.
No, it is still strangling; in fact it is strangling more efficiently in the last week than in the four weeks previous. I don’t know what Mandavilli is looking at to make the “comeback” prospective, not the trends in her own newspaper. The “comeback” is a week old.
Cases are down 34% in the last two weeks, not as much as previously; Hospitalizations are down 30%, and Deaths -16%. So Hospitalizations decrease is nearly double Deaths, see D-H rate increase.
Deaths have risen in six of the last seven iterations of the Times 7-day daily average. In the Feb. 24th they stand at 2,188. Hospitalizations (57,306 ave./day) are down. Combined with the Deaths average that pushes the D-H rate up to 3.81. 46-1’s rate his last week was 2.43. Hospitals are not caring for the sick as effectively as they once did and more people are dying. Cases are up (68,603 ave./day) for the fourth straight iteration of the 7-day.
Another wave may be coming, but it can be minimized-NYT, Mandavilli.
Another “wave” is here and it has not been “minimized” in the last week.
3,230 Americans were reported Killed by COVID-19 on President Biden’s thirty-fifth day in office. That is the highest reported total in two weeks, since Feb. 10. Cases are up for the second day, to 74,502 but are still at levels not seen so low since October, 2020. That is the one piece of good news. We can say, in sum, that fewer Americans are testing positive under President Biden but that more of those who do are getting sicker and more of those are dying. It has not been “stopped,” nor minimized—it has gotten worse in the last week.
[Kevin] Horlock says Cancelo is causing an almost impossible puzzle for opposing teams to solve.
“You don’t expect a full back to turn up in the centre of the pitch and get shots off from the edge of the box," said Horlock.
[That’s positionless.]
“It’s scary. I see highlights of the games and it shows where he has touches - how do you deal with it?!
“He creates overloads and has license to go in there and cause havoc. It must be an absolute nightmare for opponents to deal with it and stop it. He’s almost impossible to stop.
[Free your players from traditional slots, the #9 or the center in basketball. ‘He’s a fullback, No! He’s a striker!’ ‘He’s a power forward, No! He’s a playmaker, a ‘point forward’! It is a nightmare for opponents.]
“But now they are and it is no coincidence. Rather than just playing around in the triangles, we don’t hesitate to put the ball in the box when the run is made.“
[That’s right! The “triangles” is a reference to tiki-taka’s base formation. This is not your grandfather’s tiki-taka.]
Jonathan Liew
Imperious Manchester City hypnotise Mönchengladbach into compliance
The mesmerising dominance of Pep Guardiola’s side made a talented team look like a bunch of choreographed patsies.
😂
The critical passage of this game, you felt, arrived around an hour in, when Borussia Mönchengladbach – 1-0 down and having just enjoyed a rare shot on goal – threw on two attacking players in attempt to wrestle back control. On came Marcus Thuram and Valentino Lazaro, jogging on to the pitch with vim and purpose, pointing in various directions for no reason, in the way that substitutes often do.😂
At which point, with Ederson in possession, Manchester City simply walked the ball up the pitch and scored. Ten passes in total, broken only by a desperate sliding clearance from the midfielder Florian Neuhaus by his own penalty spot. Then 16 more passes, ending with João Cancelo’s pinpoint diagonal, Bernardo Silva’s header across goal and the finish from Gabriel Jesus. [That's 26 straight passes broken up only by a desperate clearance!] Thuram and Lazaro had been on the pitch for two minutes. Neither of them had yet treated themselves to a touch of the ball.
This, perhaps, was the perfect distillation of City in the early part of 2021: a team fuelled entirely by their own volition, a team who ultimately don’t care if you’re there or not, 😂 a team playing a game that doesn’t really require you to participate. Here, Marco Rose’s side were essentially treated as ball-feeders, shadow runners: choreographed patsies whose sole purpose was to make City look like they were trying.
...
...in City’s mesmerising dominance there was an element of this display that felt partly acquiescent: a sense that at least in part Gladbach were simply hypnotised into compliance. City attack builds. City attack threatens. City attack breaks down. Here, City: have the ball back and try again.
From the start, City’s high press swaddled Gladbach like a baby, [City HAS flipped the script on opponents. THEY are the team high-pressing on defense. That discombulates opponents (see second paragraph below) as it is THEY who should be high-pressing. It’s a boomerang strategy: take your opponent’s strongest play and throw it back at him with even greater force. It is brilliant tweak by Pep Guardiola.] forcing the ball-player to take the path of least resistance: inevitably back to Yann Sommer in goal, or a hopeless punt up the field to a light blue shirt. At which point, your problems really begin.
The trouble with trying to win the ball off City, you see, is that you don’t just have to win it once. Such is the intelligence and aggression with which they swarm around the ball in numbers that even when you get the foot in, force the error, they gather up the second ball and come again. And so winning the ball off City really means winning it three or four times, by which time you are not only disorganised and a bit tired, but now surrounded by City players.
In the face of this onslaught, Gladbach simply disintegrated like a malfunctioning Wallace and Gromit contraption: players passing to teammates who weren’t there, players tripping over themselves, players dribbling the ball sideways, players making inexplicable errors. City’s first goal resulted from just such an implosion: two mistakes in quick succession from Christoph Kramer – a World Cup winner with Germany in 2014 – presenting the ball to Cancelo, who crossed for Silva to score.
...for a team who were basically in disarray three months ago, none of this was inevitable. What Pep Guardiola has done is to restore not just City’s principles and philosophy, but the aura too: the immeasurable assurance and control that makes opposition teams do stupid things.
Wednesday, February 24, 2021
FT Miami 116 Toronto 108
Tonto apparently deliberately fouled Jimmy coming out of the TO and he made them both to ice it. HEAT!
114-108, :14.9
Bam foul, the Tonto made two FTs. “Heat” full TO. The “Heat” would have to fuck up but it’s possible.
114-106, :31.6
Slippin’. “Raptors” on another full TO. Before that last “Heat” basket by Bam, Jimmy had doninated the scoring in the second half of the 4Q.
COVID-19 BIDEN+34*
I’m really discouraged.
–37% Cases
–31% Hospitalizations
–23% Deaths
Hispitalizations have flipped Deaths again, which will push up the D-H rate.
71,436 Cases.
2,350 Deaths.
7-day daily average
2,082 Deaths
Third straight day, fourth out of the last five that Deaths are up.
58,633 Hospitalizations Down.
3.55% D-H. A new high.
Cases declining by more than Hospitalizations (and I don’t remember an iteration when they did not) means that more of us who test positive are getting more seriously ill, serious enough to require hospitalization. H’s declining by more than D’s means that more of us who get really sick are dying. I read something today that may shed light (or not) on these grim facts. Unfortunately I read the article before I was ready to do the daily COVID post, and now can’t find it. What I remember is that Biden is concerned with the “sourcing”, sourcing I think was the buzz word, China was mentioned, of some machine and and computer parts and the author gave two examples of the machines that these parts were critical to; one of them was a machine used in hospitals to treat COVID. Ventilators? Respirators? Maybe one of those. The point of this profile in forgetfulness is that people are not getting treated for COVID as effectively as they once did, there is something missing once people hit the hospital and the result is that more and more their next stop is the funeral home.
*This, I think, is the article I read. It’s a “supply chain” issue. COVID relief apparatus is mentioned only with regard to masks and pharmaceuticals, there’s nothing about ventilators or respirtors, nothing that would “shed light” on something missing in hospitals that speeds the trip to the funeral home, but that D-H rate is real as real and there is something going on that is causing it to be higher than it was in 46-1’s last week.
68,038 Cases. Third straight day Cases are up, albeit barely noticeably.
Dailies
71,436 Cases.
2,350 Deaths.
I’m discouraged. Good night folks.
77 mins: Rodri plays Mahrez through, but his first touch is poor. Or rather excellent. [?] It is disappointingly good, [?!] and rather than sending the ball forward to run onto it sticks under his feet, he has to stop, and the defence gets back. “Is it possible Pep doesn’t actually know he has that haute couture logo on the back of his coat?” [Yinz are outta yinz fucking minds.] wonders Graham Moger. “At school, we used to have a trick with a blackboard rubber and chalk, and the victim wasn’t aware of the prank until removing their school blazer. That’s one for your younger readers - both of them.”
Oh my goodness gracious, another PERFECT cross from Cancelo. Cancelo2
Credit Jonathan Liew with bringing Cancelo, and positionless football to light.
