Monday, May 31, 2021

Memorial Day, 1889




Where Johnstown had once been, was a lake.
-John Bach McMaster, "The Johnstown Flood," in Pennsylvania Magazine of History and Biography, 57:211 (1933).


We had got through with our share of the ordinary flood, had suffered all that we could from the narrowing of our streams and from the great stone railroad bridge obstructing the free flow of the Conemaugh at the lower end of town;the waters had begun to recede, and all were inhopes of seeing the ground about their homes or other places of refuge again by sundown, when, without an instant of warning, the Reservoir was upon us. There was no escape. A rat caught in a trap and placed in a bucket of water would not be more helpless than we were. Pompeii, when the great volcano started had a chance to run. But here was Johnstown, with its thirty thousand souls, at the mercy of an element fiercer, swifter, more relentless, more destructive than fire, escaped through a work that should never have been built and all the penalty on the heads of the innocent!

Thus we find that from three unnatural causes we have suffered. First, and seriously enough, though only slight in comparison, from the narrowing of the streams; second from the building of the big stone bridge, with its ponderous arches taking up room that should have been free for the rush of water; and third from the Reservoir which dealt the final blow...The Cause 


How much was SFFHC at fault?

The Western Reservoir, aka South Fork Dam, had been there since like 1853. The Club made it more dangerous, no doubt. But so the question has to be restated: 

Would that earthen dam, up 404 feet and 14 miles as the fish swims from Johnstown, have broken with similar catastrophic results under this incredible storm had SFFHC never touched it? Well, it did break before Lake Conemaugh was even a mirage in the Pittsburgh peoples’ eyes. In 1862. Badd break too. But then South Fork Dam had lain in neglect for a decade and was only half full. And it broke at the BASE where the culvert with the cast irin drain pipes were. It DID NOT break from water running over the top. 

Had it been full 💯? Would the Great Storm of May 1889 have caused the 1862 dammed water to rise from half to full capacity and run over the top and burst the dam and loose 20,000,000 tons of water on the Conemaugh Valley? 

Wouldn’t you think that if a much less severe storm had caused a half-filled dam to break in 1862 that the greatest storm in Pennsylvania history would have caused the water to rise to full capacity and beyond and to break with comparable violence to 1889? 

Or, were some improvements made between 1862 and 1889 that prevented the dam from collapsing again at half capacity? A half-full dam would have been a damned sight better to break at any time than a full-and-beyond dam! 

Was John Parke correct to think about a cut that would result in a “controlled break”? 

I have had impressed upon me as never before the uniqueness of the Great Storm. It was biblical. Otherwordly. More like the Great Storm on Jupiter than anything on Earth. I hadn’t realized. The description of it in Kansas on May 28 is the same description as in Johnstown the night of May 30. Those WERE tornadoes that ripped up the fields in Johnstown! Just as that was a tornado that killed a family and tore a man’s and a woman’s limbs off in Kansas.

Not knowing anything I would answer my own questions just from common sense as,

1) No. What SFFHC did made the dam infinitely more dangerous. They removed the only way to get water out of the dam (without a full break). They raised the volume of water; they reduced the height of the breast relative to the water level



 and made it lower at the center, its weakest point, than at the ends.


 A decent storm, not necessarily the Great Storm would have caused the water to run over the top and the dam to fail.
2) No! When SFFHC took control in 1879 they removed the drain pipes, stuffed the hole of the culvert and quickly brought the lake level up way beyond half-full to four feet from the top of the dam. It didn’t burst for ten years at near full capacity!
3) Yes, with the confidence that the Great Storm did cause water to run over the top, bursting the dam when no storm between 1862-1889 caused water to run over the top, even when from 1879-1889 the dam was at close to full capacity.
4) I don’t know but manifestly the dam didn’t break when beyond half capacity, nor when at near full capacity. Stands to reason that Ruff did a helluva job patching that hole at the base. Which caused the lake to fill without bursting and run over the top and destroy Johnstown. Good job Ruff, bad result.
5) No! Parke’s fleeting thought of a controlled break came to him when the water was level with the top of the dam. The dam was full already. Too late, Parkey! If he had had the thought and acted on it first thing in the morning of May 31, mebbe. The controlled break then would not have been as bad but the water level was still way over where it was in 1862. 

Tom Swank is wrong that Johnstown had got through the heavy weather. The Great Storm continued through June 2. If there had not been an earthen dam up there, yes, of course, they wouldn’t have become Lake Johnstown. But there was.

The “warnings.” Deary me, those were dreary warnings, notifications, tips, whatever. Not clear, not unambiguous, not timely. Where was the local government? The mayor? I think I remember mention of the mayor’s name once in McCullough, not in connection with spearheading lookout of the dam situation. Tom Swank seems to have been the de facto mayor. There was no coordination of intel reconnaisance, no official advisement, no means of desseminating intel to the populace. It was a company town, I guess is the reason. All of the “warnings” were composed by men of the companies who had a financial interests in town or lake: Pitcairn’s men, Parke, Unger, Swank but less so. Swank was as close as it got to an Official Johnstown.

Ad hoc, no responsibility. Ergo no accountability after. Club members “simply moved away” and never came back, were never held liable, never made to give testimony. 

This is mystifying to me: What is it with the Commonwealth and Cambria County building goddamned earthen dams on mountains above cities? Are you fucking stupid?! Pennsylvania is a verdant, well-watered body of land transected southwest-to-northeast by a mountain range with corresponding valleys. It is also in a west-to-east storm corridor, much like the east coast of Florida is in an east-to-west hurricane alley from the coast of Africa. Great storms from the west regularly visit the former as hurricanes regularly visit the latter. Why with this topographical and meteorological profile would it ever occur to intelligent beings to construct dams on mountains? And folks, this is not quarterbacking 131 years of Mondays afterwards. The. Same. Thing. Happened. In. 1977. Laurel Dam. Earthen. Watchtower abandoned. “Storm of the Century”. Say goodbye, Tanneryville. I was there after the 1977 flood. Went as part of a relief convoy from Pittsburgh, told the story many times. Johnstown looked like a whole mountain of shit had been thrown against a gigantic ceiling fan. (And by the by I was also in Boston for the Blizzard of ‘78). “Mud Arround” on the theater marquee, in place of “Surround Sound”. Mud turning to dust right before our eyes and noses and throats, blowing in the gentlest breeze. whisp whisp Rasp, rasp, rasp. THAT much dust will kill your ass. You didn’t know where to start to help out. And you know what? The people of Johnstown didn’t know where to start either. So they didn’t. They moved out, presumably to a place that didn’t build earthen dams on mountains. Most of those living in Johnstown at the time of the 1977 flood had been around for the 1936 flood. A few had been there for the 1889 flood. That was it, 1977 was the straw that broke the dam’s back for Johnstown. It has never recovered.

Anyway, no earthen Western Reservoir, no South Fork Dam, no catastrophic floods in 1889 and 1977; no opportunity for Lewis Clarke to practice his photography on Lake Conemaugh with the other rich and famous, no Lewis Clarke—who was at the Lake on May 31!—to escape to New York City and tell the New York Herald that “there was great doubt among the engineers” that it was his Lake Conemaugh that had burst its seams. Perhaps it was a dam in Lily which broke? Clarke disinformed.




















































































They "simply moved away" and never went back.

After the morning session, a lunch break, and the deposition resumes in the afternoon:

                                                           
Door heard opening...


(Napoleon After Waterloo)




-6 P.M.

 ...by six o'clock the whole monstrous pile had become a funeral pyre for perhaps as many as eighty people trapped inside.

White smoke from the fire at the Stone Bridge on the Conemaugh River; Johnstown center, the Cambria Iron Works top right.

-4:15 P.M.

A LiDAR analysis of the Conemaugh Lake basin reveals that it contained 14.55 million cubic meters (3.843 billion gallons) of water at the moment the dam collapsed.































Modern dam-breach computer modeling reveals that it took approximately 65 minutes for most of the lake to empty after the dam began to fail.





-4:09 P.M.































So once again, for the second time within an hour, Lake Conemaugh gathered in a new setting.
(Ibid 149)

-4:07 p.m.

  ...the flood hit Johnstown. The residents were caught by surprise as the wall of water and debris bore down, traveling at 40 miles per hour (64 km/h) and reaching a height of 60 feet (18 m) in places.








-4:05 P.M.

 It was now not quite an hour since the dam had given way. The rain was still coming down, but not so hard as before, and the sky overhead was noticeably brighter.

In Johnston the water in the streets seemed actually to be going down some. It had been a long, tiresome day in Johnstown, and the prospects for a night without gas or electricity were not especially cheerful, but by the looks of the water and the sky, the worst of it had passed.
(McCullough 128)

-3:32 P.M.

But within seven minutes, the viaduct collapsed, allowing the flood to resume its course. However, owing to the delay at the stone arch, the flood waters gained renewed hydraulic head, resulting in a stronger, more abrupt wave of water hitting places downstream than otherwise would have been expected. The small town of Mineral Point, one mile...below the Conemaugh Viaduct, was the first populated place to be hit with this renewed force. About 30 families lived on the village's single street. After the flood, there were no structures, no topsoil, no sub-soil – only the bedrock was left. The death toll here was approximately 16 people. In 2009, studies showed that the flood's flow rate through the narrow valley exceeded 420,000 cubic feet per second (12,000 m3/s), comparable to the flow rate of the Mississippi River at its delta, which varies between 250,000 and 710,000 cu ft/s (7,000 and 20,000 m3/s).


...when this second dam let go, it did so even more suddenly and with greater violence that the first one. The bridge collapsed all at once, and the water exploded into the valley with its maximum power now concentrated again by the [six minute] delay...(McCullough 109)

...when the flood came, the wall of water swept through in such a way that it left almost nothing to suggest that there had ever been such a place as Mineral Point. The town was simply shaved off, right down to the bare rock. (Supra 111)

-3:25 P.M.

At the Conemaugh Viaduct, a 78-foot (24 m) high railroad bridge, the flood was momentarily stemmed when...debris jammed against the stone bridge's arch. 



It was here...that the water smashed into its first major obstacle, a tremendous stone viaduct...built more than fifty years earlier...

The viaduct was one of the landmarks of the country. It stood seventy-five feet high...Even the biggest locomotives looked tiny by contrast as they chugged across it on their way up the mountain.




















Now, for [six minutes], Lake Conemaugh formed again some five and a half miles downstream...It gathered itself together, held now by another dam, which however temporary was nonetheless as high as the first one...(McCullough 108-9)

-3:15 P.M.

 "At 3:15 the Central Telephone office called the Tribune to say it had been informed by Agent Deckert, of the Pennsylvania Railroad station, that the South Fork Reservoir was getting worse all the time and that the danger of its breaking was increasing momentarily. It is idle to speculate what would be the result if this tremendous body of water--three miles long, a mile wide in places, and sixty feet deep at the breast at its normal stage--should be thrown into the already submerged Valley of the Conemaugh."-Swank.

No need to speculate, Tom, no need a'tall.

-3:10 P.M. May 31, 1889, Lake Conemaugh, South Fork, Pennsylvania

[Dan] Boyer said, "It run over the top until it cut a channel, and then it ran out as fast as it could get out. It went out very fast, but it didn't burst out."

John Parke said, "It is an erroneous opinion that the dam burst. It simply moved away."

According to Ed Schwartzentruver, "The whole dam seemed to push out all at once. No, not a break, just one big push." (McCullough 100)




 





























It is, therefore, safe to assert that the flood which poured through the break in the South Fork dam each second was equal to that which in the same space of time rushes over the Falls of Niagara.
...
...the total energy of the water was that of 20,000,000 tons falling 404 feet [onto Johnstown].



-3:00 P.M.

 "At three o'clock the town sat down with its hands in its pockets to make the best of a very dreary situation. All that had got out of reach of the flood that could, and there was nothing to do but wait..."-George T. Swank, editor, Johnstown Tribune.

Tom didn't get the memos, ambiguous though they were.

-Near 3:00 P.M.

Beginning about three in the afternoon of Memorial Day, unprecedented amounts of rain fell in the mountains [of Western Pennsylvania] for from twenty-four to thirty-six hours.

Deckert was not perfectly cool about it. Deckert had a Western Union operator call her office on the telephone and read them the contents of Wilson's "dam may possibly go" telegraph. (McCullough 97). Much too ambiguous a message to be rushed through in haste. ~Twenty minutes to break, much too late for Johnstowners to act on whatever they thought the message was advising them to do.

-2:45 P.M.

Wilson's last telegraph that the dam "may possibly go" received in Johnstown by ticket agent Deckert. Thirty minutes away from breaking...

-2:33 P.M.

Wilson's cool, ambiguous last telegraph was received in East Conemaugh. The dam was forty-two minutes from breaking.

-2:25 P.M.

Wilson heard that a kid named John Baker had just come from the dam and said the water was cutting a notch in the face of the dam. It's too late now even for an "EVACUATE!" message to be sent and received in Johnson but this message that Wilson sent to Pitcairn at 2:25 PM is absurdly "cool" and ambiguous.

                                                                                           SOUTH FORK, MAY 31, 1889
R.P.
OD
THE DAM IS BECOMING DANGEROUS AND MAY POSSIBLY GO.
                                                                                                           J.P. WILSON


-1:52 P.M.

The AO tower between Mineral Point and East Conemaugh.


Wilson was not perfectly cool about it. From South Fork Wilson had another telegraph sent to Pickerell in Mineral Point which Pickerell received at 1:52 and sent on ahead to East Conemaugh, Johnstown and Pittsburgh.

                                                                                                    SOUTH FORK, MAY 31, 1889
R.P.   [to Robert Pitcairn]                          O.D. VIA MP [Mineral Point] & AO [tower]

THE WATER IS RUNNING OVER THE BREAST OF LAKE DAM, IN CENTER AND WEST SIDE AND IS BECOMING DANGEROUS.
                                                                                         C.P. DOUGHERTY

So one sees that Wilson's commensurate body temp with the circumstances was not channeled into a message, and that to Pitcairn, not Johnstown, that was an unambiguous, e.g. EVACUATE! message. "IS BECOMING DANGEROUS," is too "cool" for the circumstances.  We are one hour and twenty-three minutes from Lake Conemaugh being channeled into the valley, destination Johnstown.

-12:55 P.M.

Pitcairn's man, Wilson, had his own man, Siebert, who reported back to Wilson that a body of water fifty to sixty feet wide had started over the crest of the dam. Siebert was "perfectly cool" about this.*

There was nothing about the condition of the dam the entirety of May 31 to be "perfectly cool" about. However, even if Siebert had had the body temperature commensurate with the circumstances and reported it with the warmth of alarm, it was getting very late in the day for excitable to make any difference.


*There is a fifty-seven minute gap in the timeline where there should not be a gap. The timeline taken or reconstructed from McCullough is picked up to 12:55 p.m. The next entry, next post, is 1:52.  This is getting very close to nut-cuttin' time, there was surely much activity at SFFHC, but the activity is not put with a time for almost one hour.

-12:30 P.M.

From Pittsburgh Robert Pitcairn sent a man of his own in South Fork to check on the condition of the dam. (Ibid 95)

-Between Noon and One O’Clock

The wires being down beyond Mineral Point, Pickerell "waited and waited" for someone to come past who could hand deliver his message to the next station over, East Conemaugh.

A railroad worker finally came by, Pickerell gave the message to him. The railroad worker gave it to his foreman at Buttermilk Falls who had the message sent by telegraph to East Conemaugh, Johnstown and to Robert Pitcairn's office in Pittsburgh. The message was received at those places between noon and one o'clock. (Ibid 93-95)


-Noon, Johnstown

"As we write at noon, Johnstown is again under water, and all about us the tide is rising...From seven o'clock on the water rose...On the water crept, and on, up one street and out the other."-George T. Swank, Johnstown Tribune (Ibid 83)

...a man came up into the [telegraph] tower [at South Fork] "very much excited."

"Notify Johnstown right away about the dam. It's raising very fast and there's danger of the reservoir breaking."

South Fork telegraph operator Emma Ehrenfeld,

was not quite sure how much to believe of [the man's] story. She thought his name was Wertzengreist, but was not sure. At any rate,"He is a man that people generally don't have much confidence in, and for that reason, I scarcely knew what to do..."

Miss Ehrenfeld telegraphed the operator at Mineral Point, W.H. Pickerell, what he thought should be done. Pickerell said,

"It was a thing that there oughtn't to be any risks taken on"  and wrote the message himself. 

SOUTH FORK DAM IS LIABLE TO BREAK: NOTIFY THE PEOPLE OF JOHNSTOWN TO PREPARE FOR THE WORST.-Operator
(Ibid 87)


That is a reasonably clear, and if Johnstowners had received this "notification" within a minute or so of it being sent, they would have had enough time to do what they thought they should consistent with preparation for "THE WORST."  But it was not received in Johnstown, much less disseminated to the citizenry, until it was too late to do anything about.

-11:30 A.M., Lake Conemaugh

Water began washing over the top of the wall at 11:30 a.m. Parke set out immediately to warn the people in South Fork—two and a half miles away. (Shappee 84)*


*I originally had this posted at 12:45 p.m. although there was conflict within McCullough at 93, 95 and 98. Then I read Shappee above, consistent with McCullough 93, and decided to go with 11:30. I also favored Shappee on the order of water running over the top and Parke's ride because of the confusion in McCullough. The latter has the ride happening before the water ran over the top (93 and 98)


-11 A.M. Johnstown, Lake Conemaugh

The water by now, from one of town to the other was anywhere from two to ten feet deep. (Ibid 82)

At Lake Conemaugh, 

...the water was about level with the top of the dam and had already started to eat into what little had been thrown up by the plow and shovels. On the outer face, near the base of the dam, it looked as though several leaks had developed.

At this point, Colonel Unger decided that perhaps something ought to be done to warn the people in the valley below. The only way was to send a man down...

...John Parke made the ride [to South Fork, the nearest town] in about ten minutes. Parke's relative youth, and...furthermore...that Boyer and Bidwell had already told everyone that there was no danger of the water running over the top...account for the marginal success of [Parke's] mission. 

Parke also told two men to go to the railroad's telegraph tower...and tell the operator to alert Johnstown...(Ibid 93)

-10 A.M., Johnstown

 


By ten there was water in most cellars in the lower part of town. School had been let out, and children were splashing about in the streets with wooden boxes, boards, anything that would make a boat. (McCullough 79)

-9:55 A.M., Lake Conemaugh

Col. Unger sent his man, Dan Boyer, caretaker of the S.F.F.H.C. grounds, to recall the team of immigrant Italian laborers who had been working on throwing up mud and straw to raise the crest of the dam. Unger now wanted the men to dig another spillway. The Italians objected that a cut in the dam now would cause it to collapse.

"It won't matter much," Unger said, "it will be ruined anyhow if I can't get rid of this water."*

*Here it is then, the first positive statement by a S.F.F.H.C. person that the point of no return had been reached. Unger knew, John Parke knew, that there was no way to "get rid of this water" without a controlled break of the dam. If clear, unambiguous--"EVACUATE!"--warning had been sent down the valley, and received, at this hour, people could have saved themselves. Instead, ambiguous warnings were sent only later.-BH

-9:30 A.M., Johnstown

About then the rain started coming down again as hard as it had during the night, heavy and wind-driven...For another half-hour he and the boys set about placing his papers and other things well above the flood line of 1887, which was about a foot from the floor. (Ibid 81)

Texas Democrats Stymie G.O.P. Voting Bill, for Now

(NYT)

-9 A.M., Johnstown

...somewhere near nine, the water that far downtown was too deep to get through safely. (Ibid)






-8:30 A.M., Lake Conemaugh

[S.F.F.H.C. member] D.W.C. Bidwell, who evidently had had enough of the soaking weekend at the lake, stopped to ask [Col. Elias J.] Unger [manager of S.F.F.H.C.] how things were going.

"Serious," answered Unger, who later that morning was heard to say that if the dam survived the day, he would see that major changes were made to insure that this sort of thing never happened again.  (Ibid 92)*

*”Serious”; “if the dam survived.” That is an ominous adjective and an ominous contingency, which Unger knew he could not ensure now. There was a failure by those associated with SFFHC to warn Johnstown throughout this cataclysmic day, in public tones that matched their private sentiments. By the time they did wires were down, it was too late in any event, and Johnstown was hit completely unawares. If at this hour, clear, unambiguous warnings had been sent down the valley by people like Unger in a position to know, Johnstown could have saved itself. They were not and it never had a chance.

-7 A.M.

When the seven o'clock shift arrived at the Cambria mills, the men were soon told to go home and look after their families. (Ibid)

-6:30 A.M., Lake Conemaugh




The hard, cold rain that had started coming down the night before had eased off considerably by the morning of Friday, May 31. (McCullough p.79)

It was about six thirty that morning when young John Parke awoke in his high-ceilinged room upstairs at the clubhouse...He had awakened once before, about an hour earlier, and had heard the rain hammering...but thinking nothing of it, had dropped off to sleep again. ...

Parke dressed quickly, went...out the porch door,...where, for the first time, he heard...a "terrible roaring as of a cataract" coming from the head of the lake to the south. He also noticed that during the night the lake had risen what looked to be perhaps two feet. (Supra 89)


-May 31, 6 A.M., Johnstown


...it was not until its center was over the eastern slope of the Alleghenies that its effects became destructive. There the storm was held up by winds from the southeast, the Lake region, and a storm from the northeast, the cold wind from the Lakes apparently wringing all the moisture out of the clouds.

Again this morning there had been a bright frost in the hollow below the dam, and the sun was not up long before storm clouds rolled in from the southeast. (McCullough p.19)

-May 31, morning, Cambria County, Pennsylvania

On May 31, the headwaters of the West Branch [of the Susquehanna River] were running twelve feet deeper than ever before.

###

Everywhere on that day the rain is described as coming down not in drops, but in "sheets," in "cloudbursts," in "masses." (McMaster 211)

(some indefinable object: May 30, Johnstown; "The cloud looked square-shaped, like a house with its lower portion surrounded by a white cloud looking like steam, which seemed to rise from all around the main dark cloud," May 28, Kansas)

The mountain top is a broad plane and had never, within the recollection of any man, been visited by such a storm as that of the night of May 30th. (McMaster 222)*


*The nature of the Great Storm of 1889 is amply attested by the vivid descriptions of those who experienced it in Kansas and in Cambria County, and by the record evidence of its effects.  I unnecessarily qualify the following with, “I did not experience the Great Storm personally, and; I am not a meteorologist, either professional or amateur":

In my sixty-six years of life, including twenty-some in Western Pennsylvania, which included seeing personally the effects of the "Storm of the Century" that caused the Johnstown Flood of 1977; in addition, experiencing first-hand six months later the Great Blizzard of 1978 in Boston; and in addition, having read a normal amount over the course of a life of comparable years of other storms in the news, the behavior of this storm is unique. I am unaware of any other storm that made such strange sensory impressions on people who experienced it, that was of such maniacal and enduring ferocity, and which formed over and visited its violence upon a landmass of an entire continent. The water deposited on Cambria County by this unique storm was added to the 20,000,000 tons of water ineffectually held back by a derelict earthen dam in Lake Conemaugh. -BH

Sunday, May 30, 2021

-39
-21
-27

Yes, very similar to the Miami "Heat's" margins of defeat in the last three games of the Milwaukee series but actually the percentage declines in the three COVID-19 categories. Sorry.

-After 10 P.M.. Johnstown

After ten the Heiser store was closed for the day, the lights out downstairs. When the downpour began, George and Mathilde did not think much of it, except that there would almost certainly be high water in the morning. (Ibid)

-10 P.M., Johnstown



But an hour or so later it started pouring and there seemed no end to it. "Sometime in the night," according to [Reverend] Chapman, "my wife asked if it were not raining very hard, and I being very sleepy, barely conscious of the extraordinary downpour simply answered, 'Yes,' and went to sleep, thinking no more of it until morning." (Ibid 34)

There were also “weird and unnatural occurrences” reported. The Heidenfelter family:  a “rumbling, roaring sound” that seemed to come from some indefinable object not far from their house. It was then followed by a terrific downpour, which, according to Mrs. Heidenfelter, sounded as if a gigantic tank tub had opened at the bottom and all the water dumped out out at once. 

“I never heard anything like it in my life. I wanted my husband to get up and see what the matter was, but it was dark and he could have done no good. In the morning, as soon as we could see, the fields were covered with water four or five feet deep . People say the noise we heard was a waterspout…

Apparently the storm did tear big holes in the ground near the Heidenfelter farm…other families close by the lake reported hearing sounds much like thunder but which they were certain were not thunder.” (Supra 88)

(See May 28 Kansas for similar description.)

-9 P.M., Johnstown

At about nine the rain began again, gentle and quiet as earlier. (McCullough p.36)

-7 P.M., Cambria County

By evening [rain] had spread westward as far as the Panhandle of West Virginia and northward to Cleveland. Winds from the ocean and wind from the south forced this storm into a small mountainous area of Pennsylvania where the Allegheny Mountain prevented it from going toward Pittsburgh.

-5 P.M.

 About five the rain stopped and left everything freshly rinsed looking. (Ibid)

-4 P.M. Johnstown, Pennsylvania

When the rain started coming down about four o'clock, it was very fine and gentle, little more than a cold mist. Even so, no one welcomed it. (McCullough p.33)

-May 30, Afternoon. Cambria County, Pennsylvania

The West Branch of the Susquehanna [River] was flooded by the afternoon of May 30, and the water continued to rise until Saturday, June 1.

The West Branch rises on the west side of the Alleghenies in northwestern Cambria County...The flood waters of the West Branch, Penn's Creek, and the Juniata drained the eastern slopes of the Alleghenies. In the west, the Clarion River, Red Bank Creek, and the Conemaugh rise highest in the Alleghenies and fall the fastest and steepest. A typical mountain stream, the Little Conemaugh, and its principal branch, the Stonycreek, wind through the mountains for twenty-five miles...At the confluence of the Little Conemaugh and the Stonycreek lies Johnstown, which in 1889 comprised a cluster of a dozen boroughs with a population of twenty-five thousand.


-May 30, 6 A.M. East Coast

On the morning of May 30, rain began to fall from the Tidewater area of Virginia to New York. 
###
The normal winds along the shores of the Middle and South Atlantic states are from south to west. But
such was the distribution of pressure over the Atlantic...that, on the morning of the 30th, the winds were blowing steadily from the south and east. (John Bach McMaster, The Johnstown Flood, 210 (1933.)

1889, May 30

By May 30, rain began to fall in Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois. 

On May 30 the government forecasters sent warnings of severe storms for the Middle and South Atlantic states.

This storm had split into two parts as it entered the Mississippi Valley; one part turned north to pass over the Great Lakes and crossed to New England; the other part drifted across Kentucky and Tennessee, where, aided by a southeast wind, the rain moved northward.


Saturday, May 29, 2021

COVID-19 BIDEN+129 (May 29)

This is going to be a repeat of the last two iterations, B as in Biden.

14-day changes

-38% Cases.
-22% Hospitalizations.
-24% Deaths.

Good grief, COVID, the hyena sits on your chest.

7-day daily averages

20,984 Cases. Down 1,000/day.
Okay, can I stop this with tonight?
26,823 Hospitalizations. Down almost 300/day
457 Deaths. Down 29/day.
Okay, I'll tell you what: I'm going to check the numbers every night. If there's a significant new shift, I'll do this exercise, but if there ain't I ain't. [Memo to BH From BH: Pay attention to this!]
1.70% D-H rate.Down. *ooh!* down nine hundredths of a point. You are sooo dead, COVID.
Okay Vax, shit on my head:
It's not been updated! :o This is the first time in history Vax have not been available before the other categories' metrics have, and tonight they're not even after the others (???) Strange doin's at the Quasi-Official New York Times.

Herd Immunity (90%) day

NA

President Biden tentative grade A, subject to the Vax Herd crapping on it.

Tale of Two Miseries

Manchester City was embarrassed today.
The Miami “Heat” were humiliated tonight.

In the Magic City the Milwaukee "Male Deer" completed a four games to zero finger-flick of the “Heat,” who just last June had made MIL their does four games to uno.

Only one game in this series was close, the first, a 109-107 win in overtime in Beer. The next three games Miami lost by:

34
29
17

Both of my favorite pro sports teams have questions to answer going into the offseason. For City, do they need a true 9? Do they need to get bigger? Does Pep have to tweak tiki-taka? Thomas Tuchel figured City out in his half year with Chelsea. He has now beat them three straight, denying them the FA Cup in the first and the Champions League trophy today. And Ole Gunnar Solskjær has figured City out crosstown at RayJay. Solskjær has beaten City three straight times at Etihad Stadium. Manchester "Buccaneers" were runners-up to City in the Premier League in the season just ended. Tiki-taka is not the Theory of Relativity; folks can wrap their heads around it, and they are doing so.

For the "Heat" the questions are, in the details, similar to those of Manchester City: do they need a true 5?; do they need to get bigger overall?; do they trust Bam Adebayo enough to give him a max contract? City's decision to let Sergio Aguero walk is, at immense stretch, arguably comparable, at least in angst; does Spo's positionless basketball, like Pep's tiki-taka, need a rework?

But the forest must not be missed for telescoping on trees. There is a systemic question for Miami to answer that City does not have: Does the very identity of the franchise, Pat Riley and the "Culture," need to change? As I keep reminding, the "Heat" is an average (double entendre) .529 in the seven seasons since LeBron James left. Riley eschews draft picks for aging, often troubled and troublesome veterans. They don't have two of the three superstars the c.w. holds an NBA team needs to win a championship, they have one star, minus the super, and a one-year all-star reserve who was uncomfortably passive at the end of the regular season and in this four-game debacle. Milwaukee outrebounded Miami tonight 56-40. 56-40! And Bam had a great stat line, 20 pts, 14 boards. Bam's great game on paper didn't come close to getting the "Heat" even close.

There's puzzling history: the "Heat" has played a putrid (11-30) first half of the season and then a scorching second half (30-11); a blazing first half (24-9) and a skidding second half (10-11 (last season before COVID canceled it)), followed by a bubbly playoff run all the way to the Finals. Why this Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde?

How serious was the Jimmy-Spo contretemps? Shams Charania reported that there were also tensions among players. Jimmy did call out (with plausible deniability) Bam this winter. Spo tried to feature Bam in a leading role in an early-season game, calling an iso for him with the game on the line in the closing seconds. Bam made the basket, dribbling a few times like a guard and hoisting a 10-foot jumper. That was not the move that Spoelstra--or Butler or Riley--had in mind. They wanted Bam to "impose his will," to “bully" (Jimmy's word at a different point on Bam) his way by backing his man down, back-to-basket, and then dunking or hitting a peep.

Is Jimmy an asshole? He's had relationship issues in Minnesota and Philly. Is Jimmy a problem in the locker room?

The answers to these questions, detailed and systemic, lie in the breast of the aging consigliere who sits alone in his darkened chambers in an increasingly bleak house by the bay, sips his port, and keeps these family secrets close. The local beat writers, intimidated by him, are wary of revealing the secrets they do know and are not exactly Woodward and Bernstein in unlocking those they don't. Manchester City do not have the weight of .529 stealing up on them, now crouching on their chests like the hyena in Snows of Kilimanjaro, growing weightier and weightier until it presses life’s breath out of them. The hyena sits at 601 Biscayne Blvd.

FT Chelsea 1 City 0

Chelsea had the better game plan and bigger, stronger, taller players to execute the plan. City’s corner kicks, of which, typically, there were several in the closing minutes of stoppage time, became corner throws by Kyle Walker. And this time there was no Edin Dzeko to head the ball in. City have a superabundance of smaller, exceptionally quick players. But they have no bull like Kylian Mbappe or Mario Balotelli, no Yaya Toure, not even a Micah Richards, and no Dzeko  Size only matters if you let it lean on you but City’s players were not so much quicker than Chelsea’s to round them cleanly and break in alone. They were nearly always muscled or crowded off the ball, their shots redirected before ever heading goalward their passes hurried and the lanes clogged. They lost possession, or the attack would dribble out of bound, or Chelsea would break the other way. 

“You cannot pass the ball into the net,” and yet that is what tiki-taka results. When encountering Chelsea’s wall City would pass horizontally or back. You have to go over the wall when you cannot pass through it. It was on a dispossession and vertical passing that Chelsea scored their, and the game’s, only goal. City did not cross until about midway through the second half. There was usually a Chelsea player there—so disciplined—but City’s greatest threats came off centering the ball. 

This is embarrassing for all City people. They were shut out and almost shut out in chances. So at five o’clock it is Chelsea who are Champions of Europe.

CITY FOREVER!
does this game even count? chelsea finished 19 points behind city in the league.

HT Chelsea 1 City 0

Impotent half for City. Thomas Tuchel has Chelsea extraordinarily well-organized and disciplined on defense and City cannot find a crack. They have to pass over this defense. They are not going to be able to pass through Chelsea.
Lasers turned the sky blue ahead of the biggest game in Manchester City's history.

The colourful light show was seen across Manchester on Thursday night, emanating from the Etihad Stadium.

The Main Event



















Today it happens. The realization of all of Sheikh Mansour's and City Football Group's dreams. We love them, we love Manchester City, therefore it is the realization of our dreams as well.  By five o'clock Manchester City will be the Champions of all Europe. This is it.

“Heat” Culture Day


This was an actual thing in 2017 , hosted inappropriately on April 20. They have not been that bad. They have been .529 mediocre. Thus, today is appropriately “Heat” Culture Day.

Friday, May 28, 2021

I'm a lawyer. Getting closer to a completely retired lawyer every day, but still a lawyer and have always been a lawyer. If you're a basketball player, or a retired basketball player, you watch highlights of great performances, MJ, Kobe, Bird. To a lawyer David Boies is Jordan or Kobe or Bird. This is a legendary performance by a legend--Wilt's 100 point game. So, to a lawyer, this is mesmerizing. Two heavyweights going at it, Ali-Frazier, Boies-Bill Gates, in United States v Microsoft, Gates' deposition in 1998. The entire thing is over eleven hours long. I have spent, off and on several hours today watching four hours of the whole and various other clips. I am in thrall to David Boies. This is a masterclass in how to depose a witness. Boies developed a photographic memory as compensation for being dyslexic. He never forgets the question he as asked, Gates dances away from it, Boies does not get distracted and relentlessly bores in, again and again and again. One of these rope-a-dopes lasts over six minutes. Boies destroys Bill Gates fighting on Gates' home turf, the computer software industry. Non-lawyers will find this mind-numbing not mesmerizing. This is the first clip I watched today, deemed "highlights."


COVID-19 BIDEN+128 (May 28)

I have "threatened" (promised?) to stop these nightly reports because COVID is so clearly a walking corpse in the United States...I didn't stop tonight.

14-day changes

-36% Cases.
-22% Hospitalizations.
-20% Deaths.

COVID is like the Monty Python character: an arm lopped off; the other arm lopped off; then a leg lopped off. Death by slicing.

7-day daily averages

21,982 Cases. Down.
27,147 Hospitalizations. Down.
486 Deaths. Down.
1.79% Deaths-Hospitalization rate. Down.
1,500,632 Vax. Down 118k/day! That is the lowest daily average since Feb. 24. :( HID's gonna be in 2023.

Herd Immunity (90%) Day

November 26. Back two weeks!

President Biden Grade (same as yesterday) B



Good night sweet princes and princesses.

It's Friday Night...

 

A man sees a beautiful chicken, he cannot help be inquisitive.


Mas Trouble

 

Inter Miami gets MLS-record $2M fine, $2.2M cap hit over Designated Player dealings


Already the worst-run franchise in Major League Soccer since Chivas USA Inter Miami has been hit with the largest fine in league history.

Along with the $2m fine to the club, MLS levied a reduction in allocation money of $2,271,250 spread out over the 2022 and 2023 seasons. With a total available to spend of $19.155m across those two campaigns, the allocation money penalty amounts to 11.9% of Inter Miami's salary budget during that time.

The league also issued a personal fine of $250,000 to Inter Miami managing owner Jorge Mas.

This is s.o.p. for the Mas family. MLS will regret letting Mas take control of this franchise for eternity.

1889, May 28. Kansas

Beginning in eastern Kansas and Nebraska on May 28, [the great storm] moved eastward into Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Michigan and northern Indiana had snow; New York had frost.


A Times special from Emporia, Kan., reports that a disastrous tornado passed over Clements, Chase County, thirty-two miles west of here, about 4 o'clock [in the] afternoon...but the wires are all down, and no reliable information can be obtained.

John Pantle, conductor of a stock train, who arrived in Emporia at 9 o'clock last night, says he passed through Clements just after the storm, and in plain sight of part of its destruction doings. The cloud looked square-shaped, like a house with its lower portion surrounded by a white cloud looking like steam, which seemed to rise from all around the main dark cloud. As it came through the timber it cut a clean swath apparently destroying everything in its path, and when it struck the Cottonwood River it looked as if it was cutting a path through the river, piling up the water on both sides.

(See May 30, 10 P.M. for strikingly similar descriptions in Cambria County, Pennsylvania.)

One Thing Missing From the Biden Budget: Booming Growth

For all the administration’s focus on transformational policies, it’s not forecasting an outburst of economic potential.


In the assumptions that underpin the administration’s budget, G.D.P. growth is strong in 2021 and 2022 — but strong enough only to return the economy to its prepandemic trend line, not to surge above the trajectory it was on throughout the 2010s.

In 2023, G.D.P. growth falls to 2 percent in the budget assumptions, then to 1.8 percent a year through the mid-2020s. That is lower than the 2.3 percent average annual growth rate experienced from 2010 to 2019.


Old defense attorney line: "I could have lost that case for a lot less." Couldn't you spend less than $6 TRILLION to get back to where we were before COVID. This makes no sense to me and has the look of a clusterfuck.

Republicans Block Independent Commission on Jan. 6 Riot


Republican senators used the filibuster to prevent the creation of a panel modeled after the one that investigated the Sept. 11 attacks to scrutinize the assault on the Capitol. 

[Manchin and Synema, two Dem proponents of the filibuster, had made impassioned pleas to their Repube “colleagues” to agree to the bi-partisan commission.]

With the vast majority of Republicans determined to shield their party from potential political damage that could come from scrutiny of the storming of the Capitol by a pro-Trump mob, only six G.O.P. senators joined Democrats to support advancing the measure. The final vote, 54 to 35, fell short of the 60 senators needed to move forward.

The vote was a stinging defeat for proponents of the commission...
...
... Leaders concluded that open-ended scrutiny of the attack would hand Democrats powerful political ammunition before the 2022 midterm elections — and enrage a former president they are intent on appeasing.
...

...the commission’s defeat is expected to embolden the former president at a time when he has once again ramped up circulation of his baseless and debunked claims.

In a matter of months, his lies have warped the views of many of his party’s supporters, who view Mr. Biden as illegitimate; inspired a rash of new votingrestrictions in Republican-led states and a quixotic recount in Arizona denounced by both parties; and fueled efforts by Republican members of Congress to downplay and reframe the Capitol riot as a benign event akin to a “normal tourist visit.”



xZibit
@_kosi_02

Imagine supporting Manchester United and the Miami Heat



2:36 AM · May 28, 2021·Twitter for iPhone


Ha!