There is one great team in men's college tackle football this strangest of seasons, Georgia. Other evergreens from seasons past have collapsed into mediocrity-to-goodness and the few who have not have glaring weaknesses that would exclude them from a tournament of greatness in any other year. Of the latter I am thinking most prominently of Oklahoma. I would include in that category also Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, and Notre Dame. Of the preseason top five teams, Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, only Georgia is indisputably worthy and along with the "Bulldogs" only OU seems a lock to make the four-team playoff. The former category is so numerous: Clemson, Iowa, PSU, Florida, Texas A&M, Iowa State, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Miami, USC, LSU, Texas.
Why has Oklahoma had so many close calls? What happened to Iowa, once ranked second? Even their win against PSU seemed at the time, and has proven to be, evidence of a flawed team. Is Ohio State really all that? They already had a loss to Oregon, but okay, good team Oregon, but their win over PSU feels like Iowa's, unsatisfying of greatness criteria. What happened to Iowa State! North Carolina!
There is what is called a "bureaucratic imperative," right? In organizational analyses, once created a bureau will protect its continued survival as fiercely as does a biological organism. This is a year, so far, where it looks like there is going to be a college football playoff of four teams whether they deserve it or not. Just because it is there.
“Abba is now widely respected as a purveyor of sophisticated pop craftsmanship, and its enduring popularity transcends generations and borders.”
Lost five. Still up five.
Notre Dame seeing and sawing like the drunk Irishmen they are, now 31-27 2:03 3Q, UNC with the ball at their own 40.
Harbaugh questions and answers after Halloween Eve Nightmare:
How did the game get away?
“It didn’t go the way we wanted it to go. Played hard, gotta strengthen the resolve.”
lolol
Were you hesitant about putting J.J. McCarthy back in after the first fumble?
“Yeah, that exchange didn’t go smoothly.”
How bad does this one hurt?
“Yeah, this didn’t go the way we wanted it to. We’re gonna have to learn from it and strengthen our resolve moving forward.”
Was McNamara available for the series that McCarthy fumbled (and lost)?
“Yeah, that was — he was working through something at that point.”
What did MSU do to limit the running game?
“They tackled very well.”
Florida is now 4-4. Man, that won't cut it in Gainesville!
I won! HAHAHAHAHA! My beloved Colorado "Buffaloes" lost 52-29, by 23! The line was 24 and I took the "Buffs"! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! CU, you blew just right! I think the worst I can do now is break even. I've won two nickels, I think I speculated on four total. I know Notre Dame was one of them. Was there another?...Oh yes, Kansas getting 30.5 at Okie State. Wail, that one ain't lookin' too hotsy totsy at the moment. "Boones" lead 17-0 after 1Q. But the worst I can do if both ND and Rock Chalk Jayhawk fail to cover is even.
It looked as though Michigan was going to have a shot at winning the game, with quarterback Cade McNamara throwing for 383 yards and two touchdowns. The Michigan coaching staff brought in freshman quarterback J.J. McCarthy late in the fourth quarter with a three-point lead, and McCarthy fumbled and lost the ball to the Spartans.
[MSU] scored on the ensuing drive to take the lead, and although Michigan was able to get the ball back with less than two minutes in the game, an interception by Charles Brantley sealed the win for Michigan State.
It’s on HARBAUGH! My God Harbaugh why did you take him out and put in a freshman?!?! You IDIOT! Well, that’s what the tale of tape doesn’t tell you. When you have a coach with a bone in his brain you’re gonna lose however the stats look. My God that is just horrible by Jim Harbaugh!
A 40-yard run this time. Miami has scored on each of its first three possessions and it has been easy and quick. Okay guys, I'm done for awhile.
A 57-yard bomb from Van Dyke for the score. He's going up top and Miami's receivers are too fleet for Pitt's safeties. Time out for me while I take my blood pressure meds.
Pitt went for it on 4th down and 3 from the UM 45 but Kenny threw incomplete. UM with the ball and excellent field position.
Dr. Pablo Pistola
@drpablopistola
#HeatCulture
Poll: Are we SURE that Duncan Robinson is an elite 3 point shooter? Sure, we’ve seen the stats, but are we really *REALLY* sure?
11:08 PM · Oct 29, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
Doc is right to ask that question. It has been puzzling and grows more alarming with each game he plays.
Heat Nation
@HeatNationCP
It’s all about the Heat Culture down in Miami!
PJ Tucker, Kyle Lowry and Markieff Morris have embraced what the Heat stand for
Mark Steel
@mrmarksteel
In a period of 3 seconds I saw England take a wicket against Australia. Zaha score on my dodgy stream to put Palace ahead against Man City, and a bloody great penis flash up on an advert thing on the lap-top. I’m a bit discombobulated.
10:13 AM · Oct 30, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
Thanks for that Mark!
It's all a bit counterintuitive. So let's break down the case for the Panthers.
The Panthers are the sixth-best team in the country, according to FPI. Sixth best! That Cincinnati team that is getting so much buzz as the possible first Group of 5 school to crack the CFP? Pitt is better. Undefeated Michigan State? Pitt's better. One-loss Notre Dame and one-loss Oregon? Pitt's better. Undefeated Wake Forest? Pitt is much better. You get the idea.
Actually, I get nervous.So what makes FPI believe Pitt will be so great? To put it simply, Pitt has been exceptional on a play-by-play level.
...
You want it in the simplest possible terms? Pitt currently has a plus-25.7 [expected points added per play] points margin per game, No. 5 in the country.
And the fact that the Panthers' breakout is unexpected is actually held against them. FPI's prior belief on Pitt entering the season wasn't particularly strong relative to other top contenders. That's still factored in, but Pitt's No. 6 FPI ranking comes despite that.
I'll let you in on a little secret: As long as the schedule and record remain the same, mathematically it does not matter which team you lose to. Seriously. [emphasis added]
Seriously, this is the false logic of mathematical modeling. Of course it matters who the fuck you lose to! It matters to the goddamned selection committee! If we had beaten WMU (at home) and lost by three to Clemson (at home) or Tennessee on the road that would matter to people.In other words, Pitt currently ranks 17th in strength of record. Had its loss come against Western Michigan or Georgia Tech or Clemson or heck, even New Hampshire, it would have been 17th. As long as the Panthers played the same schedule and were the same 6-1. What difference does it make?
If we compare Pitt to Ohio State: The Buckeyes lost to a much better team in Oregon. But Ohio State hasn't beaten anyone of the caliber of Clemson. Or gotten a win at Tennessee for that matter. If we compare the schedules, Pitt's has been slightly harder. Which is why it's been slightly more impressive to go 6-1 against Pitt's schedule than Ohio State's (the Buckeyes rank 20th in SOR).
Now that we're past whom Pitt lost to, let's talk about whether it could get in despite having a loss. Of course, we're talking about a world where Pitt wins out -- that's the only way any of this matters -- so get yourself in a state of mind where the Panthers have gone on a heck of a run, won out, and won the ACC.
It's not that far-fetched because of what we've already discussed: Pitt is awfully strong as a team, and it doesn't have a particularly hard schedule with Clemson now in the rearview mirror.
Okay well, Miami has a new QB and is playing with an intensity of belief that was not there earlier in the year. North Carolina still has Sam Howell and Mack Brown, and Virginia is good.At 12-1, we project that Pitt would rank fifth in strength of record. So the way the model views it: Pitt would be fifth in strength of record, sixth in FPI, have one loss and be a conference champion. It's not a perfect résumé and would not guarantee a playoff berth. But it's probably enough to get in.
At 12-1--I'm getting light-headed--okay. Could we just take this one game at a time?If you're looking for a parallel, [No, I'm not looking for any fucking parallel!] here's one: 2019 Oklahoma. That season, the Sooners ranked fifth in SOR but ninth in FPI -- a bit worse than where we have Pitt now. They were 12-1 and Big 12 champs. And they got into the playoff.
What a 12-1 Pitt cannot have is four of the following also existing on selection day:
Undefeated or 1-loss Georgia
1-loss champion Alabama
Undefeated or 1-loss champion Oklahoma
Undefeated or 1-loss champion Ohio State or Michigan
Undefeated Michigan State
In addition, a non-exhaustive list of other situations under which Pitt might lose out includes:
Undefeated Cincinnati
2-loss Alabama
1-loss champion Oregon
1-loss champion Michigan State
That seems like a lot! But here's the thing: Any scenario we concoct to make four of these happen is not particularly likely to happen.
Let's look at a chalky example. The chance that Oklahoma wins out, Ohio State wins out and Alabama wins out, with Georgia winning out until it loses to Alabama is ... just 1%.
Let's try: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Georgia and Cincinnati winning out. That has less than a 1% chance of happening, and it's not even clear if Cincinnati or Pittsburgh would take that last playoff spot if the Panthers also won out.
Now these can add up, particularly when we consider that some of these teams have breathing room to lose a game. But my point is: We shouldn't compare Pitt's record to those of other contenders today. We should compare it on selection day ... and there is very likely to be mayhem between now and then.
It's a little shocking to see Pitt with a 22% chance to reach the playoff when fellow ACC team Wake Forest is under 1% despite being undefeated. So what's the difference? Quite a bit.
Cases by vax status April 4 through Sept. 4:
"Breakthrough deaths" had a gentler rise, a more pronounced peak and have been in decline for a month.
Hospitalizations by vax status through Aug. 28, 2021.
Izzy Abanikanda is not going to play Saturday. That's not official-official, that's me-official. And I would rather lose to Miami than win with a not-100% Izzy. This isn't that former agricultural college down the pike a few hours, this is the University of Pittsburgh and we don't play like that. Head coach Pat Narduzzi said whether Abanikanda--or any other player--plays or not is 100% up to the team medical staff and the coaching personnel have zero input. That is how it should be.
My frustration with Abanikanda not playing therefore has nothing whatsoever to do with the player or the medical staff. It does have to do with the offense and the offensive play calling.
The two skill positions most vulnerable to injury are quarterback and receiver. Football fans and analysts will agree that the one play with the highest risk of devastating injury is the receiver over the middle. The QB gets hit on the majority of offensive plays, far more often than any receiver does, and any running back. Both receiver and QB frequently do not have the defense even of anticipation--on throw-hit and catch-hit plays they are looking away from the tackler at the ball. The QB is stationary and is not uncommonly blindsided. The running back always has the defense of anticipation. He gets hit on every play he carries the ball but he can see the hit coming and lower his shoulders. Not so the receiver over the middle. He often has a tenth of a second after catch until collision. He can't prepare himself. What makes the receiver over the middle play call so dangerous is equal and opposite physics. The QB is a statue at his most vulnerable. The receiver however is almost always going with momentum directly into the path of the tackler, with opposite momentum. Izzy Abanikanda was "dropped," was "blasted", on two slant routes coming out of the backfield.
The running back out of the backfield was institutionalized in tackle football by the West Coast Offense which about obsoleted the running back position. The West Coast is a move toward positionless football: quarterbacks who run, running backs who receive, it's more and more androgynous. In short yardage situations the West Coast calls for little dink passes to receivers, sometimes playing the receiver position, sometimes running backs used as receivers. Abanikanda ran the ball 78 times this season; he was a receiver 13 times. He was used as a ball carrier exactly six times more frequently than as a receiver. I take it on faith that that is a normal ratio for whatever scheme Mark Whipple operates but it's too small a ratio. Why do you have receivers? How many times was Tony Dorsett used as a receiver?
This is my problem. Izzy Abanikanda is a special back, he is only a redshirt freshman, he has three years left at Pitt. 78 rushes in seven games is far from overuse of a running back. But when you have a special talent, when that special talent gets hit 78 times (and with Izzy many more than that because he's so elusive) why are you sending him out of the backfield on little dinky slants over the middle where he is guaranteed to get "dropped" and "blasted"? How about a pass to him in the backfield where his momentum is taking him horizontal to the vertical tackle? Why send him into congested defenses where his momentum and the tackler's are going to be equal and opposite? Why, especially, do that at the end of the third quarter when he had already been "dropped" on a similar play and by the same tackler at the end of the second quarter? Or pass the ball to your damn receivers! You got a "free and angry" one in Melquise Stovall tailor made for West Coast dinks. Does Melquise run the ball too? No, of course not, he's a receiver. Exactly! Then don't send Izzy on slant over the middle to get "blasted."
