Sunday, October 31, 2021

Oh my goodness--I recognize that when I see it! Matt Canada's lightening-quick misdirection and sleight-of-hand was in abundant evidence today in Cleveland as the Pittsburgh "Steelers" upset their arch- and division-rivals, the Cleveland "Browns." The first play I saw I thought, "Well, that was different." 


The second or third, as my eyes wandered bewildered after the ball, and saw the "Browns' similarly befuddled, I remembered. Ben Roethlisberger is gettin' a hand on the Mad Canadian's trickery now! 



It is fun to play, nobody can tell me Ol' Ben didn't enjoy that, and it's fun to watch. He's the most creative offensive mind in football.

The Rise and Fall of the Great Republic

Whenever it was that I first read The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, it was long before 2016 for my copy was completely unannotated with any margin notes, "Trump." I have only re-read it intermittently in the last month and have not covered even 200 pages but my God, just thumbing through the 191 pages I have read so far, there are a dozen or more handwritten references to Trump and pages dog-eared that never were previously. It is shocking. I will detail these at a later time and it is not as if I was unaware of the parallels, I have written of them repeatedly, but I did not remember (because I had not read the book by 2016) the innumerable details of the parallel. They have left me literally open-mouthed. William Shirer and Winston Churchill both wrote of their amazement that Hitler stole upon the world so stealthily because, as Churchill wrote, "There it all was," in Mein Kampf, Hitler's programme for world conquest, in detail. Similarly, I gape at the insouciance of both the American intelligentsia and the middle classes as they gaze at and gauge Trump, for there it all is, in The Rise and Fall, Trump's template.
In the last 24 hrs there have been more pageviews, by far, 9.54kthan on any other day in the nineteen year history of this blog.

There is one great team in men's college tackle football this strangest of seasons, Georgia. Other evergreens from seasons past have collapsed into mediocrity-to-goodness and the few who have not have glaring weaknesses that would exclude them from a tournament of greatness in any other year. Of the latter I am thinking most prominently of Oklahoma. I would include in that category also Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, and Notre Dame. Of the preseason top five teams, Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, only Georgia is indisputably worthy and along with the "Bulldogs" only OU seems a lock to make the four-team playoff. The former category is so numerous: Clemson, Iowa, PSU, Florida, Texas A&M, Iowa State, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Miami, USC, LSU, Texas.

Why has Oklahoma had so many close calls? What happened to Iowa, once ranked second? Even their win against PSU seemed at the time, and has proven to be, evidence of a flawed team. Is Ohio State really all that? They already had a loss to Oregon, but okay, good team Oregon, but their win over PSU feels like Iowa's, unsatisfying of greatness criteria. What happened to Iowa State! North Carolina!

There is what is called a "bureaucratic imperative," right? In organizational analyses, once created a bureau will protect its continued survival as fiercely as does a biological organism. This is a year, so far, where it looks like there is going to be a college football playoff of four teams whether they deserve it or not. Just because it is there.

Oh my goodness the “Cowbells” rang KY Jelly last night. Old Miss State banged “#12” Kentucky 31-17 in Starkville.

OSU sent PSU to its third consecutive defeat 33-24 in the Big House. The “Nittany Lions” played heroically. 19.5 underdogs they fought like pitbulls on crack and were close the entire game, leading through most of the first quarter. James Franklin coached desperately, even vindictively. It was not a well-played game. OSU fumbled on its first possession. PSU recovered at the OSU 43. On the first play starting running back Noah Cain fumbled right back to OSU. The PSU defense forced a punt but Franklin was livid. He took Cain OUT. The play-by-play on the next series reads like this:

-John Lovett [Who?! Not Noah Cain is all Franklin cared.] run for 4 yards.
-John Lovert run for 5.
-Sean Clifford run for 2.
-John Lovett run for 1.

Lovett had three more carries on the drive, six total, only 13 for the game, Lovett can’t run, his yrds/carry for the game were 1.5, but he was not Noah Cain (Cain touched the ball only four more times after his fumble). Franklin took Cain’s fumble as a personal betrayal. This was Franklin’s longshot game of redemption, with PSU fans and with prospective employers, and Cain had blown a golden opportunity for Franklin.

That was not good coaching. But Franklin and his team gave a magnificent account of themselves that would have been miraculous redemption if they had won. Alas for them, they did not, and all this game serves is as bookend to a three-game losing streak. They have an easy (but Illinoise was easy) next three games but a season that crested at fourth in the nation with other employers in hot pursuit of Franklin has now crashed to at least a three-loss season in which James Franklin had some kind of mental-emotional short circuit.

What. Is. He. Doing?


Look at that! Every fucking guy except Bam and he was injured. And four guys on the bench got double-digit minutes. Spoelstra has stayed with that starting five all season, no tinkering! But he has gone uniquely deep into his bench, which is uniquely long in the Association this season. I don’t object, I don’t second, I just don’t understand the man.


In Belated, Hesitant Recognition of ABBA


Abba is now widely respected as a purveyor of sophisticated pop craftsmanship, and its enduring popularity transcends generations and borders.”

Saturday, October 30, 2021



FT NOTRE DAME 44 NORTH CAROLINA 34 I win a dime for the day good night.

And they’re down to the 11 :23 left. Happy HalloWEE!

You’d think this would be it, right. ND kicked a FG to go up 44-34 with 1:37 to play. But I put five on ND to cover 3.5 so if the fucking Apple Chills score a late consolation TD I LOSE! So I have to stay up a little later.
Oh jeez the “Heat” played tonight. Won 129-103 in Memphis. Jimmy led…SPOPLAYEDEVERYGUYEVENUD:o Jimmy was team high with 27, I’m too tired to go through all of it so I just noticed Duncan got off the schneid with 15 pts on 5/10 (5/10) and Lowry had his best game so far, 15 pts also on 5/8 (4/5) and 8 asts. Go Heat! Go Heat!

This has been a long poopy day…If Notre Dame can just fucking hang on I’ll have at least scooped a dime out of the poop. 41-34, 3:32 4Q, ND at UNC 15.

ND 41 UNC 34, 7:23 4Q, North Carolina with the ball "Irish" 39.

 Notre Dame 41 North Carolina 27 11:52 4Q.



OSU 20 PSU 17, 5:49 3Q. Boy. For the investment bankers who put shekels on the "Bucks" it's jump out the frigging window time.

FT Oklahoma State 55 Kansas 3

Lost five. Still up five.

Notre Dame seeing and sawing like the drunk Irishmen they are, now 31-27 2:03 3Q, UNC with the ball at their own 40.

OSU 17 PSU 17, 10:26 3Q.

Man, I’ll you, if PSU does win this game, as a 19.5 dog…damn man.


Notre Dame 24 North Carolina 20, 10:51 3Q.


ND 17 UNC 20, 13:05 3Q. Oh God I hate you Notre Dame.
Okie State 51 KU 3.
I give No Game James and his team credit! They took the kickoff and marched right down to the OSU 29 where they stalled with :05 left and kicked a FG! 17-10 OSU at the half.
It was 10-7 OSU with 2:55 left on the clock before halftime and PSU was driving, they were down to the OSU.  Then… there’s a bug loose on the rug!. Sean Clifford got hit and FUMBLE! and a “Buckeye” picked it up and ran it all the way to the house…at the Shoe. Hmph. Frowny face for James. 🤣Now it’s 17-7 OSU, 1’ left.





Fat guy touchdowns are the best.


Okie State 38 Kansas 0, HT. Okay "Cowpokes" that's enough, rest the starters--don't want to get anybody hurt!--I need eight points. All I ask is eight little peepy points from the "Jayhawks". K? Promise?

#11 Notre Dame 17 North Carolina 10, 1:23 2Q. 

17-13 HT. FINE! NO MO'. Bitches. Frigging potato-eaters. DON'T FUCK AROUND!

Harbaugh questions and answers after Halloween Eve Nightmare:

How did the game get away?

“It didn’t go the way we wanted it to go. Played hard, gotta strengthen the resolve.”

lolol

Were you hesitant about putting J.J. McCarthy back in after the first fumble?

“Yeah, that exchange didn’t go smoothly.”

How bad does this one hurt?

“Yeah, this didn’t go the way we wanted it to. We’re gonna have to learn from it and strengthen our resolve moving forward.”

Was McNamara available for the series that McCarthy fumbled (and lost)?

“Yeah, that was — he was working through something at that point.”

What did MSU do to limit the running game?

“They tackled very well.”


Such a putz Such a total dick.

"Lakers" lead "Apple Chills" 7-0, 2:30 1Q. If even that margin holds up I win.

PSUUP7-0ONOSU5:551Q :o

FT #1 Georgia 34 Florida 7

Florida is now 4-4. Man, that won't cut it in Gainesville!

I won! HAHAHAHAHA! My beloved Colorado "Buffaloes" lost 52-29, by 23! The line was 24 and I took the "Buffs"! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! CU, you blew just right! I think the worst I can do now is break even. I've won two nickels, I think I speculated on four total. I know Notre Dame was one of them. Was there another?...Oh yes, Kansas getting 30.5 at Okie State. Wail, that one ain't lookin' too hotsy totsy at the moment. "Boones" lead 17-0 after 1Q. But the worst I can do if both ND and Rock Chalk Jayhawk fail to cover is even.


It looked as though Michigan was going to have a shot at winning the game, with quarterback Cade McNamara throwing for 383 yards and two touchdowns. The Michigan coaching staff brought in freshman quarterback J.J. McCarthy late in the fourth quarter with a three-point lead, and McCarthy fumbled and lost the ball to the Spartans.

[MSU] scored on the ensuing drive to take the lead, and although Michigan was able to get the ball back with less than two minutes in the game, an interception by Charles Brantley sealed the win for Michigan State.


It’s on HARBAUGH! My God Harbaugh why did you take him out and put in a freshman?!?! You IDIOT! Well, that’s what the tale of tape doesn’t tell you. When you have a coach with a bone in his brain you’re gonna lose however the stats look. My God that is just horrible by Jim Harbaugh!

FT #8 Michigan State 37 #6 Michigan 33

Man, Michigan dominated that game statistically! 552 total yards(!) MSU had 395. 26 first downs to 20; 34:50-25:10 time of possession. Each team had two turnovers, MSU two INT’s in the first half, MI an INT and a fumble. Wow.

 Nebraska 17 Purdue 28. This will be my one and only update on this game.

Oregon 45 Colorado 14 :( I researched the hell out of that game, too. God damn it.
georgia 27 florida 0

 #1 Georgia 24 FU 0, 8:55 3Q. Happy Halloween, FU1

#7 Oregon 38 Colorado 14. Son of a fucking bitch! CU why do you blow so bad. THEY ONLY BEAT FRIGGING STONY BROOK BY 24! Fucking stupid "Buffaloes."

FT WVU 38 #22 Iowa State 31! Man, "Cyclops" just isn't the same this year. 
#1 Jawja 17 FU 0, 1:35 2Q. 🥳

#7 Oregon 28 Colorado 14, 2:13 2Q

I have always been fond of Colorado. Been there a bunch of times skiing.

I hate you, Colorado

#7 Oregon 28 CU 7, ~2’ 2Q.

Before I assumed the fetal position in depression I saw that Michigan led MSU 23-14 either at the half or close to. I did not know until resuming brain function that MI had led 30-14 more than halfway through the 3Q. My goodness, quite a comeback for Sparty.



Halloween Eve Saturday

FT #8 Michigan State 37 #6 Michigan 33. 
Wisconsin 27 #9 Iowa 7.
#16 Baylor 31 Texas 24.
Tulane 12 #2 Cincinnati 31.
Illinoise 14 Ruptures 20. Gawd PSU.
Tottenham Hotspur 0 Manchester United 3.  Quite a convincing statement by United, who leap to fifth in the table.



Pitt 7 Miami 21, 6:12 1Q

A 40-yard run this time. Miami has scored on each of its first three possessions and it has been easy and quick. Okay guys, I'm done for awhile.

Pitt 7 UM 14, 8:44 1Q

A 57-yard bomb from Van Dyke for the score. He's going up top and Miami's receivers are too fleet for Pitt's safeties. Time out for me while I take my blood pressure meds.

Pitt 7 Miami 7, 9:28 1Q

Pitt went for it on 4th down and 3 from the UM 45 but Kenny threw incomplete. UM with the ball and excellent field position.

Pitt 7 Miami 7

All passes by both teams on their first possessions (except Izzy’s one-yard run). After his sack Van Dyke completed passes of 14, 57, 20, and 20 for the TD. 

A gunslinger’s duel is NOT what I wanted to see but it seems Narduzzi and Whipple are determined to give us that.
Izzy Abanikanda got the rushing TD for the “Panthers”!

 Pitt D sacks Van Dyke for -15 on UM first play!

Pitt 7 Miami 0! 

What a bad, bad feeling I get from the start to this day. :o It's Halloween Eve o:

Brighton drew at Liverpool today, too. Witches in the air, witches, witches everywhere. 

Great sign at the Michigan-Michigan State game.

Dr. Pablo Pistola

@drpablopistola

#HeatCulture

Poll: Are we SURE that Duncan Robinson is an elite 3 point shooter? Sure, we’ve seen the stats, but are we really *REALLY* sure?

11:08 PM · Oct 29, 2021·Twitter for iPhone

Doc is right to ask that question. It has been puzzling and grows more alarming with each game he plays.

.530

Heat Nation

@HeatNationCP

It’s all about the Heat Culture down in Miami!

PJ Tucker, Kyle Lowry and Markieff Morris have embraced what the Heat stand for 


2:00 AM · Oct 30, 2021·TweetDeck


We’re now in the Markieff Morris Era.
Is the Pitt game even still on? There's a hurricane due east.

City 0 Palace 1, 45+2

Oh great, Laporte got a red card. 

 Ed Malyon

@eaamalyon

Good times don’t always stay good but Palace currently winning at Man City on one screen and England ripping through Australia on the other one 🤩

10:38 AM · Oct 30, 2021·Twitter for iPhone


Did you see the big penis?

City 0 Crystal Palace 1, 28'

Hey guys the game has started. I'd like you to start playing now.

Mark Steel

@mrmarksteel

In a period of 3 seconds I saw England take a wicket against Australia. Zaha score on my dodgy stream to put Palace ahead against Man City, and a bloody great penis flash up on an advert thing on the lap-top. I’m a bit discombobulated.

10:13 AM · Oct 30, 2021·Twitter for iPhone

Thanks for that Mark!

Fucking piss fucking shit fuck. City 0 Palace 1, 7’. FUCK.

Short Pants Football

Arsenal got a massive win today at King Power Point Stadium, 2-0 over Lester. The gooners are now technically in fifth place, having played the earliest of the weekend's matches.

City kick off in less than 20 minutes in London at Etihad (going from American tackle to short pants) against Child Porn.

The most impactful match of the day is at 12:30, Tottenham in London against Manchester United, for per board discussions with Ole Gunnar Solskjær this week after the horrific loss to Liverpool last weekend, United have to win this match to save the manager's job. Solskjær has lost a big part of the dressing room, that's the most ominous sign to me, well, most ominous after the Liverpool Disaster. If I remember correctly, Solskjær has to win today and his next two, at Atalanta in the CL and home to City. If that recollection is correct I don't see him doing that. Reportedly, Solskjær would have been fired after Liverpool but for disagreement among management on Antonio Conte as replacement.

 

Why the Pittsburgh Panthers have a legitimate College Football Playoff chance


As a Pitt Traumatic Stress Disorder sufferer I am uncomfortable with all of this.


Pitt is a playoff contender. A real playoff contender.
...
As we sit now, days away from the first CFP rankings reveal, Pitt has a 22% chance to reach the playoff, the seventh-best shot among all teams, behind only GeorgiaAlabamaOklahomaCincinnatiOhio State and Michigan. Then Pitt. Even though the Panthers have a 44-41 home loss to Western Michigan. ...

It's all a bit counterintuitive. So let's break down the case for the Panthers.

Pitt is really good

The Panthers are the sixth-best team in the country, according to FPI. Sixth best! That Cincinnati team that is getting so much buzz as the possible first Group of 5 school to crack the CFP? Pitt is better. Undefeated Michigan State? Pitt's better. One-loss Notre Dame and one-loss Oregon? Pitt's better. Undefeated Wake Forest? Pitt is much better. You get the idea. 

Actually, I get nervous.

So what makes FPI believe Pitt will be so great? To put it simply, Pitt has been exceptional on a play-by-play level.

...

You want it in the simplest possible terms? Pitt currently has a plus-25.7 [expected points added per play] points margin per game, No. 5 in the country.

And the fact that the Panthers' breakout is unexpected is actually held against them. FPI's prior belief on Pitt entering the season wasn't particularly strong relative to other top contenders. That's still factored in, but Pitt's No. 6 FPI ranking comes despite that.

It can weather the loss to Western Michigan

I'll let you in on a little secret: As long as the schedule and record remain the same, mathematically it does not matter which team you lose to. Seriously. [emphasis added]

Seriously, this is the false logic of mathematical modeling. Of course it matters who the fuck you lose to! It matters to the goddamned selection committee! If we had beaten WMU (at home) and lost by three to Clemson (at home) or Tennessee on the road that would matter to people.

In other words, Pitt currently ranks 17th in strength of record. Had its loss come against Western Michigan or Georgia Tech or Clemson or heck, even New Hampshire, it would have been 17th. As long as the Panthers played the same schedule and were the same 6-1. What difference does it make?

If we compare Pitt to Ohio State: The Buckeyes lost to a much better team in Oregon. But Ohio State hasn't beaten anyone of the caliber of Clemson. Or gotten a win at Tennessee for that matter. If we compare the schedules, Pitt's has been slightly harder. Which is why it's been slightly more impressive to go 6-1 against Pitt's schedule than Ohio State's (the Buckeyes rank 20th in SOR).

It has a 27% chance to win out and could make a pretty strong case as a one-loss champion

Now that we're past whom Pitt lost to, let's talk about whether it could get in despite having a loss. Of course, we're talking about a world where Pitt wins out -- that's the only way any of this matters -- so get yourself in a state of mind where the Panthers have gone on a heck of a run, won out, and won the ACC.

It's not that far-fetched because of what we've already discussed: Pitt is awfully strong as a team, and it doesn't have a particularly hard schedule with Clemson now in the rearview mirror.

Okay well, Miami has a new QB and is playing with an intensity of belief that was not there earlier in the year.  North Carolina still has Sam Howell and Mack Brown, and Virginia is good.

At 12-1, we project that Pitt would rank fifth in strength of record. So the way the model views it: Pitt would be fifth in strength of record, sixth in FPI, have one loss and be a conference champion. It's not a perfect résumé and would not guarantee a playoff berth. But it's probably enough to get in.

At 12-1--I'm getting light-headed--okay. Could we just take this one game at a time?

If you're looking for a parallel, [No, I'm not looking for any fucking parallel!] here's one: 2019 Oklahoma. That season, the Sooners ranked fifth in SOR but ninth in FPI -- a bit worse than where we have Pitt now. They were 12-1 and Big 12 champs. And they got into the playoff.

But it would need some chaos

What a 12-1 Pitt cannot have is four of the following also existing on selection day:

  • Undefeated or 1-loss Georgia

  • 1-loss champion Alabama

  • Undefeated or 1-loss champion Oklahoma

  • Undefeated or 1-loss champion Ohio State or Michigan

  • Undefeated Michigan State

  • Pitt cannot have four of those. It's gonna have Georgia, gonna have Oklahoma.

In addition, a non-exhaustive list of other situations under which Pitt might lose out includes:

  • Undefeated Cincinnati

  • 2-loss Alabama

  • 1-loss champion Oregon

  • 1-loss champion Michigan State

It's gonna have Cincy, Alabama, and probably Oregon. Cincy and Oregon are good counters How in the world are you going to have an undefeated Group of Six team that won at Notre Dame get jumped by a P-5 team that lost at home to a Group of Six school? Oregon: A P-5 champion with one loss, on the road to Stanford, and one MASSIVE win in the Big House over OSU--you're telling me the selection committee would choose over O a P-5 champ with one loss AT HOME to WESTERN-FUCKING-MICHIGAN and a win at Tennessee? No.

That seems like a lot! But here's the thing: Any scenario we concoct to make four of these happen is not particularly likely to happen.

Let's look at a chalky example. The chance that Oklahoma wins out, Ohio State wins out and Alabama wins out, with Georgia winning out until it loses to Alabama is ... just 1%.

Let's try: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Georgia and Cincinnati winning out. That has less than a 1% chance of happening, and it's not even clear if Cincinnati or Pittsburgh would take that last playoff spot if the Panthers also won out.

Now these can add up, particularly when we consider that some of these teams have breathing room to lose a game. But my point is: We shouldn't compare Pitt's record to those of other contenders today. We should compare it on selection day ... and there is very likely to be mayhem between now and then.

What separates Pitt from Wake Forest?

It's a little shocking to see Pitt with a 22% chance to reach the playoff when fellow ACC team Wake Forest is under 1% despite being undefeated. So what's the difference? Quite a bit.

Pitt is a much better team than Wake, FPI believes. ...

FPI believes. FPI is a fucking 538 computer. It don't "believe" shit. Voters, who do have beliefs, rank Wake 13th and Pitt 17th.

Okay, my 20/400 eyesight does not afford me much distant vision. I need things right up to my face. Miami is right up to my face now and we will beat Miami.

 

College football betting nuggets: Is Pitt the most reliable cover?

Friday, October 29, 2021

FT MIA 114 CHAZZ 99

For all the additions in the off-season, the KLE, PJ Tucker, this is still the Jimmy-Bam show. Bam was a beast tonight, 36', 27 pts, 19 reb, 2 asts, 2 steals, 1 block, he did have 5 TO's. Jimmy 36', 32 pts 12/19 (1/3) 7/7 from the free throw line, 10 reb, 5 asts, 1 steal, 1 block, (4).

Tyler 32', 26 pts 9/13 (4/6), 5, 6, 1 (3). That was the scoring. 

The "Heat" again got no O from K-Low 36', 4 pts 2/10 (0/4), 6 reb, 5 asts, 1 stl, 1 blk, (2). Sorry, those aren't a starting PG's stats. 

Duncan continued ice cold shooting 26', 10 4/14 (2/11). 

Rounding out the starters PJ Tucker was once again nothing but a space heater, 23', 2 points 1/5) (0/4), 5 reb. That's not a starting PF. 

I don't know, the team is 4-1. The starting unit is clearly not broken so why fix it but three of the parts are unusually weak. It's been Jimmy, Bam, and Tyler off the bench--they are the reason for the nice record. Through the four games he has played Kyle Lowry is averaging 5.8 ppg on 30% shooting and 5.8 apg in ~32'/pg while getting paid $26.9M/year. There is no way to envelope that in some Kyle Lowry Effect in the ether, that is shocking. PJ Tucker in five games 5.8 ppg, 5.3. Duncan Robinson, you have to think this is just a slow start, but the longer it lasts, the more concerning it is for a starter: In 28.7'/game Duncan is averaging 9.5 ppg on 35.1% (31.3%). You have $53M invested in three starters who are not producing.

It's a stellar start for the team but is not sustainable. 
It's about gotten away from CHAZZ, 103-91, 3:31 left to play. At the very beginning of the 4Q they got it down to 6 but then the "Heat" pushed it up a smidge to 8 and the two teams traded buckets on a few possessions. Miami had stemmed the tide. They have gradually increased it to the present. 12 down with 3:31 left, with the 4Q flow of this game, it's pretty much over.

Holy mackeral 49-29 7:16 2Q. “Heat” are just pounding them.

MIA 33 CHAZZ 22 End 1Q

Charlotte's got a good record too, 4-1.
They just took the 16 down and put up 13?! Man, weird electrical or something going on at Bang Bus Arena tonight.


"Heat" have scored 14 straight points after Chazz led 7-2. 16-7 6:33 1Q. 'Nets on full TO. Seems warranted.
This is very strange. At post time the Chazz@MIA game has not started yet. Tipoff was 7:30. The other 7:30 game is underway.

Michigan might be a state divided this week, but bettors there are leaning green on what is expected to be one of the most heavily bet college football games of the season nationwide.

No. 6 Michigan is a 4-point favorite over No. 8 Michigan State for Saturday's showdown in East Lansing...As of Thursday, for every money-line bet on the Wolverines, there were nine on the underdog Spartans at DraftKings' sportsbook in Michigan.

Yeah, the House got this one wrong, hell when I placed my bet the line was 4.5, and most of us are telling it that. Vegas' lines are not quite predictions of outcomes, they are where the House thinks the betting public is going to be evenly divided on the margin of the outcome. So you can say the House is wrong regardless of the outcome when the House loses money on where it set the line, and on this line the House has taken a bath. I have written all season long that they have underrated MSU and I have made money on every game I bet involving the team. 

Informed Speculation With Financial Resources Vol 9, by Benjamin Harris, MS, JD

First Rule! Have fun. Let’s get on my lads. Home teams first.

A nickel on East Lansing Spartak getting 4.5 at home to Meeshagan.

Should I play O-24 Colorado?...Man, that's a lot of pernts. Gonna check both teams shedsules agayne.  Une momento...The only game O has played where they would have covered 24 is STONY BROOK. "Bisons" have gotten blown out this season: 23 at Cal, 23 at home to USC, 22 at Arizona State, 30 at home to Minnehaha! Obviously Oregon's better than any of those teams. Except for the Texas A&M game "Buffs" have either gotten blown out or been blown out. Won by 28 over NoCo, by 34 over Arizona. That's weird. 

I have to decide if I have an abiding conviction that CU is going to keep this under 23. Oregon has only beaten Stony Brook by 24+! Is Arizona worse than CU? O beat them 22 in Eugene, "Buffs" beat 'em by 34 in Boulder. Christ, O only beat Fresno by 7. I'm looking for a beat down by Oregon and it's not there. Lord...Benjamin, do you have an abiding conviction?...I'm THINKING!...No, I don't. Not yet anyway. Pass for now. I want to see how many, if any, other games I'm going to play...WAIT! There is a bit of conflict in the standards. "Abiding conviction" is one. But"belief" is the other. Belief, "feel." Do I believe? Yes, I do. Pass for now and I will sort out.

Five on Kansas getting 30.5 in Stillwater.

Five on ND to cover -3.5 home to North Carolina.

Okay, that's it. I still don't have an abiding conviction on O-CU but I'm going to go with the belief standard and on that standard I'm going to put a nickel on CU.

It ain’t happenin’

Biden Implores Democrats to Support His Transformative Agenda


“The House and Senate majorities and my presidency will be determined by what happens in the next week,” President Biden told lawmakers on Thursday.

“But as he prepared to land in Rome, Mr. Biden’s bet had not yet paid off. He had not ended months of intraparty squabbling that has dragged down his poll ratings, jeopardized Democratic candidates and raised deep doubts among Americans that his presidency can deliver on the promises of a vast social and economic agenda.

In the closed-door session on Thursday, Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Democratic lawmakers that “when the president gets off that plane, we want him to have a vote of confidence from this Congress.”

Instead, for the second time in a month, Ms. Pelosi pulled back from plans on that vote after progressive Democrats objected again. They ignored the president’s entreaties, signaling their continued mistrust of moderate Democratic senators, whom they fear will not back Mr. Biden’s larger social spending bill when it finally comes to a vote.

Senators Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, moderate Democrats who had forced the original $3.5 trillion proposal to be halved. The two delivered halfhearted statements that pointedly did not promise that they would support the president’s new framework for a deal on the spending bill.

But White House officials concluded that it was time for Mr. Biden to put down his final marker, explicitly asking Democratic lawmakers for their support on a specific proposal. Having the president leave for a week on his trip without doing so would have left the process in limbo, administration officials said.
...
But in a rebuke that played out over the next several hours, Democrats refused to immediately come together behind the leader of their party.

And Mr. Manchin and Ms. Sinema remained steadfast in their opposition to including parts of the progressive agenda — like free community college, a large Medicare expansion and tax rate hikes on the wealthy — in the president’s social policy legislation. They made clear that they would not be swayed by the refusal of the progressive members to vote for the infrastructure measure.

I haven't paid attention to the details of this, the three bills, the voting rights bill by far the most important, and yet weirdly made third on the priority list. I have been resigned that these bills were not going to pass in anywhere close to their original form. It was distressing-depressing to think about and I just didn't. The social safety net bill was more than halved to placate Manchinema. And yet.

The Democrats' strategy on these bills has always struck me as odd. Voting rights in third place. Why, again? Nancy's original line in the sand that the social safety net and infrastructure bills were joined at the hip. "I promise," she told the progressives. Erase that line and promise moderates a first vote on infrastructure. Ron Klain bucking up progressives to hold firm on the social bill, confident, apparently, that Manchinema would cave. Letting Manchin re-write the social bill gutting it of action on climate. Still didn't get his or Sinema's support! The president and Nancy drawing another line in the sand yesterday, "Pass this bill or this presidency is over" and then the president leaves on a foreign trip. Didn't want to leave it in "limbo". What? You left it in limbo. Manchinema called his bluff. 

You know, Mitch McConnell said at the beginning of all of this, "Now we're going to see if the Democrats can govern." Democrats are showing that they can't.
Why are USC and LSU not going after Pat Narduzzi?

Thursday, October 28, 2021

CDC Forecasts Oct. 27

Observed black dots, forecasted one-four weeks from Oct. 27 red circles.

                                                                          Cases:

Deaths:


Takeaway: Overwhelmingly, the message here is: Delta is dusking. Forecasted cases decline much more incrementally and much less precipitously than do deaths. Cases, in fact, show a leveling tendency between +3 and +4 weeks.

CDC Studies by Vax Status Oct. 28

 Cases by vax status April 4 through Sept. 4:

Delta became dominant in the U.S. in mid-June. The U.S. reached 70% one-dose adult pop. vax Aug. 5.  Breakthrough cases rose steadily, through August it looks like, and then leveled; and in the last couple of weeks in October have started a gentle decline.

Deaths by vax status April 4 through Sept. 4

"Breakthrough deaths" had a gentler rise, a more pronounced peak and have been in decline for a month.

Hospitalizations by vax status through Aug. 28, 2021.


This is "breakthrough hospitalizations" only through August 28. We don't know yet where breakthrough hospitalizations went in the last month. 

Takeaway: Overwhelmingly the message from these graphs is: GET VACCINATED. The breakthroughs shrink to oblivion in comparison with the unvaxed.

Kristof is Running for Governor of Oregon

A Farewell to Readers, With Hope

😳
Kristof was born and raised in Oregon. A normal political course is leave to get your education (especially if it's at Harvard) and return afterward. An abnormal course is to leave to get your education at Harvard, and work at the New York Times for 37 years and then run for office in your native state. This is a mid-life crisis, not a normal course to elected office. He's got no chance.

 

Facebook Renames Itself Meta





Stocked up on the two basic food groups, caffeine and nicotine!

Wednesday, October 27, 2021

Be damned. "Heat" beat Brooklyn 106-93. WFT?

We didn't shoot much better either, 39.6% (27.6%). Bam team high, 24 in 30', 9 reb--against KD too; Jimmy 17 in 37', 14, 7, 4, 1, (3). Lotta minutes for Jimmy. Lotta production. Jimmy's the team. PJ Tucker had a nice game, by far his best in the 305: 15 in 32', 7 reb, 2 ast. Dewayne Dedmon big game off the bench, he's a big guy, D.D., 7-footer, 14 in 17’, 9 reb 1 ast (1). Tyler 14 in 27’ on 5/17 (1/6) *ouch* 8(!) reb, 2 ast, (3). The starters in addition to PJ, Jimmy and Bam were Kyle, 9 on 3/8 (1/5) in 34', 6, 9, (3), and Duncan, 6  2/7 (2/7) in 32', 5 reb, 1 ast, 1 blk, (1).

Take a brief look at the "Nyets" who musta stunk the joint out.  38.8% (32.6%). Well, somebody's gotta win the game. KD game-high with 25 in 37', 11 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl, 2 blk (5). Kevin a -14 for the game. J. Harris 15 (-22), big minus, J.  B. Brown 14 (-12). James 14, 7, 7, 1 stl, 1 blk, (4) -12. Only "Nyet" starter in + was Blake Griffin +3. So according to the execrable +/- BKLYN woulda been bettah benching all their starters except Blake. Yeah.

I've written this before: Sometimes the box score tells the whole score, sometimes it don't. I looked up at the score before I wrote that sentence and I still don't see how all that brick adds up to a MIA 13 point win. But somehow it do. 

Never expected that at HT. 

KD is saying all the right things. "We can't wait on Kyrie Irving to come save us. We have to play better." Which, duh. That mental midget head case needs to save a team with Kevin Durant and James Harden on it? Gimme. But it has has to be getting very frustrating for everyone connected to the team. There are protests in support of Bed Bugs outside Barclays every night of home games; the team, projected to win the conference by many, is 2-3. They were 3.5 point favorites to win tonight and they lost by two touchdowns and a missed PAT. I'll bet there are chants of "We Want Kyrie" inside the arena. Management has got to be feeling the heat of the protests and the poor start. It was they, who, to the applause of all cognos (who don't write the checks, btw), suspended Kyrie from all team activities home and away on the "you're either in or out, no half-ways" principle and have to pay the half man king of the punk asses for the away games he is eligible to play. And if management relented and let him play on the road, how would that sit with Kevin, James, and the others? If I were the players, I'd be pissed. I wouldn't be all "Kyrie! Bruh! Welcome back. We missed you!" Nah-ah. I'd resent him. Wouldn't management thus have concluded the team does need this moron to come "save" this coalition of the willing who aren't winning? In this management calculus they are up against the stubborn fact that Kyrie Irving is a great basketball player, GREAT. They'e paying half-price for a zero percentage performer. That is a bottom line that defies sense. I'd rather trade his bed bug bitten ass to a team that doesn't have NYC's COVID mandate and get something for him. All in all, and in all ways, things are pretty rotten in the Borough.

Izzy Abanikanda is not going to play Saturday. That's not official-official, that's me-official. And I would rather lose to Miami than win with a not-100% Izzy. This isn't that former agricultural college down the pike a few hours, this is the University of Pittsburgh and we don't play like that. Head coach Pat Narduzzi said whether Abanikanda--or any other player--plays or not is 100% up to the team medical staff and the coaching personnel have zero input. That is how it should be.

My frustration with Abanikanda not playing therefore has nothing whatsoever to do with the player or the medical staff. It does have to do with the offense and the offensive play calling.

The two skill positions most vulnerable to injury are quarterback and receiver. Football fans and analysts will agree that the one play with the highest risk of devastating injury is the receiver over the middle. The QB gets hit on the majority of offensive plays, far more often than any receiver does, and any running back. Both receiver and QB frequently do not have the defense even of anticipation--on throw-hit and catch-hit plays they are looking away from the tackler at the ball. The QB is stationary and is not uncommonly blindsided. The running back always has the defense of anticipation. He gets hit on every play he carries the ball but he can see the hit coming and lower his shoulders. Not so the receiver over the middle. He often has a tenth of a second after catch until collision. He can't prepare himself. What makes the receiver over the middle play call so dangerous is equal and opposite physics. The QB is a statue at his most vulnerable. The receiver however is almost always going with momentum directly into the path of the tackler, with opposite momentum. Izzy Abanikanda was "dropped," was "blasted", on two slant routes coming out of the backfield.

The running back out of the backfield was institutionalized in tackle football by the West Coast Offense which about obsoleted the running back position. The West Coast is a move toward positionless football: quarterbacks who run, running backs who receive, it's more and more androgynous. In short yardage situations the West Coast calls for little dink passes to receivers, sometimes playing the receiver position, sometimes running backs used as receivers. Abanikanda ran the ball 78 times this season; he was a receiver 13 times. He was used as a ball carrier exactly six times more frequently than as a receiver. I take it on faith that that is a normal ratio for whatever scheme Mark Whipple operates but it's too small a ratio. Why do you have receivers? How many times was Tony Dorsett used as a receiver?

This is my problem. Izzy Abanikanda is a special back, he is only a redshirt freshman, he has three years left at Pitt. 78 rushes in seven games is far from overuse of a running back. But when you have a special talent, when that special talent gets hit 78 times (and with Izzy many more than that because he's so elusive) why are you sending him out of the backfield on little dinky slants over the middle where he is guaranteed to get "dropped" and "blasted"?  How about a pass to him in the backfield where his momentum is taking him horizontal to the vertical tackle? Why send him into congested defenses where his momentum and the tackler's are going to be equal and opposite? Why, especially, do that at the end of the third quarter when he had already been "dropped" on a similar play and by the same tackler at the end of the second quarter? Or pass the ball to your damn receivers! You got a "free and angry" one in Melquise Stovall tailor made for West Coast dinks. Does Melquise run the ball too? No, of course not, he's a receiver. Exactly! Then don't send Izzy on slant over the middle to get "blasted."