The gambling man must believe. With belief, win or lose, he will have no regrets. Without it, he has no business gambling. Last week I really believed Las Vegas was clearly wrong on multiple games--didn't help me! I broke even--but if you don't play when you have an abiding conviction then you're not a gambling man. If you gamble because that's what you do, gamble, then you're an addict.
I often get an instant feel for whether the line is right or wrong. Do your due diligence for sure, but don't convince yourself of a play. An abiding conviction is not forced. If you don't feel the play then have the discipline not to play. To a gambling man not playing is a play. This week when I first saw the lines the only one that stood out was Auburn-Georgia and my inclination was not to play at all. I would have been proud of myself.
With those thoughts let us sit at the table and do or not do.
Home teams first:
#22 Arizona State-12.5 Stanford. I think that line is too much. Do I think that line is so too much that I take the "Trees"? No. Pass.#7 Ohio State-21 Maryland. I really think the "Bucks" are going to make turtle soup of Mary, as they did blowing the spread to smithereens at Rutgers last week. But a three TD win, 28-7, 42-21, is killing a team. Do I have an abiding conviction it's going to be more like what Iowa did in MD last week, 51-14? I do. “Bucks” coming together. Neither new QB probs nor D deficiencies in last week's brain bowl in Piscataway. Five on OSU giving the points.
Rutgers #11 Michigan State-5.5. Which is more likely, East Lansing Spartak 13 Rutgers 7, 16-10. Or 17-14? The former. Putting a nickel on "Sparty" to cover.
#18 Auburn #2 Georgia-15.5. Jawja reads as the best team in the land to me. Balanced, no weaknesses and playing with the ferocity of junkyard dogs. They have also played ONE true road game this year--at Vandy. The atmosphere on the Plains gonna be different than that one, and than UGA's game agin' Clemson in Charlotte. "War Eagle Tigers" played the game of the year in Towel-Snappy Valley and lost 28-20 (which was outside the spread). Played on the Bayou last week and won. "Dawgs" D makes you welp. Some dope said last week, "I'll never bet against the "Dawgs" again." That's a helluva lotta pints though. 24-8 or 28-14? Gambler's adage: "Take the home dog." Nickel on Allbern.
*Updated: UConn's head coach, two assistants, and two players have tested + for COVID-19 and will not participate in tomorrow's game at Massachusetts. I don't know specifically why UConn has suddenly begun playing better but I would have to think that it has something to do with the coaches. I'm passing on this game.
#16 Kentucky-3.5 LSU. Fat Head Ed fittin' to git fried in his own grease. Will if he loses this one. O problems. Stupid vs Stoops. Kentucky isn't sixteenth best in the country. Can the "Wildcats" play wild and possessed like they did last week in Mullet vs Stoops? No chance. Pass.
