One can see from the first post today the approximate time the undersigned went to bed. Shan't be a repeat tonight. G'night.
Monday, February 28, 2022
Everybody but Uterine Device played for Miami--OY vey, K. Guy, H. Highsmith--the whole "Thrillers" roster. The "Heat" led by as many as 23 midway through the 4th when Spo emptied his bench and eased to a 112-99 win over the supposably second-best team in the East. Couldn't be a better start to the four-game gantlet except that...
Kyle Lowry didn't play. "Personal reasons." Missed fourteen games earlier for "personal reasons." Maybe management has details. The fans don't. As one of those latter it is greatly frustrating to be greatly frustrated with the ambiguity when team had these four-in-six days really important games. It tempts you to speculate, it do, but I won't fall into that trap. You can't win. It must be that the catch-all is in the Association's CBA with the NBPA.
"Male Deer" played up tempo Chazz in Beer, and blew the wings off the "Buzz" 130-106. Chazz is in free-fall, 2-13 in their last 15. Chump org, Chazz, chump org.
As are, and as is, Lake Mistake and its "Cadavers", who have lost 4 of 5, including tonight to the Minnesota "Fighting Saints" by the Lake 127-122. Those two interesting teams play Wednesday night, also by the Lake. Good seats available at popular prices.
Ruptures blew out the "Nets" in Brooklyn 133-97. Tonto is a schizoid team, 6-4 in their last 10 and sitting 7th. BKLYN is the most dangerous team in the Association when fully healthy and will get talisman K.D. back this week. They are 8th.
🎵 Can you feel the "Heat" down in your soul?🎵
4 Big Ten teams make top 16 of women's reveal-ESPN
Drinking does not go with headline writing, Espo.
Russia Uses Cluster Bombs in Kharkiv
Russian forces have been shelling the outskirts of Kharkiv, an eastern Ukrainian city with 1.5 million people, since launching the invasion last week. But they appeared to be avoiding heavily populated areas.
On Monday, the fifth day of the Russian assault, that
changed when Kharkiv was hit by a barrage of rockets...[raising] new alarms about how far the Kremlin was willing to go to subjugate its smaller neighbor.
[Igor] Terekhov [mayor of Kharkiv] said four people had been killed when they emerged from bomb shelters to find water. And he said a family of five — two adults and three children — was burned alive when a shell hit their car. Another 37 people were wounded, he said.
…
“We are convinced that this was a cluster munition attack,” Stephen Goose, a munitions expert at Human Rights Watch, said in an email.
The indiscriminate nature of the Kharkiv assault, made clear in videos verified by The New York Times, may indicate impatience by President Vladimir V. Putin with his military’s progress…
On Monday, the fifth day of the Russian assault, that
changed when Kharkiv was hit by a barrage of rockets...[raising] new alarms about how far the Kremlin was willing to go to subjugate its smaller neighbor.
[Igor] Terekhov [mayor of Kharkiv] said four people had been killed when they emerged from bomb shelters to find water. And he said a family of five — two adults and three children — was burned alive when a shell hit their car. Another 37 people were wounded, he said.
…
“We are convinced that this was a cluster munition attack,” Stephen Goose, a munitions expert at Human Rights Watch, said in an email.
The indiscriminate nature of the Kharkiv assault, made clear in videos verified by The New York Times, may indicate impatience by President Vladimir V. Putin with his military’s progress…
Yes, indeed.
Disney Steps Up
Feb. 28, 2022, 8:47 p.m. ET29 minutes ago29 minutes ago
Brooks Barnes
Disney will pause theatrical movie releases in Russia.
Grateful to you, Brooks!
"Russia's economy shudders"
...the [Russian economic] situation deteriorated markedly on Monday, with the Russian central bank raising its key interest rate from 9.5 percent to 20 percent, a move that could be seen as a way to deter people from withdrawing more money from domestic banks. And officials also kept the Moscow stock exchange closed Monday and Tuesday, a step that delayed an even greater flight of money.
...
Under the new [financial] regime, all people in the United States and European Union are banned from trading with Russia’s central bank. The sanctions also apply to Russia’s Finance Ministry and its sovereign wealth fund.
Hoo doggie.
The restrictions amount to choking off Russia from the international financial system.
...
The U.S. and its allies have not blocked Russia from exporting energy, however, as Europe in particular heavily relies on Russian gas.
What if Russia does? Did we think that through?
...
Adam Smith, a partner at Gibson Dunn and a former sanctions official in the Obama administration, said the attack on Russia’s central bank [Let's call it what it is and an "attack" is what it is.] reflects just how quickly events have moved in Eastern Europe. Smith emphasized that such moves have typically been off the table because central banks play such a crucial role in a nation’s economy, noting that going after them includes “severe and potentially unknowable collateral effects.” In this case, Smith said, it’s possible the sanctions will make it more difficult for Europe to buy oil and gas while also hurting the average Russian economically.
So no, we did not think that through.
...
Two senior administration officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe the White House’s announcement, said Monday that the freeze was immediately effective and intended to prevent Russia from recalling its international reserves from around the world.
The punishments reflect the extraordinary outpouring of support for Ukraine in the West, but they also carry the risk of further escalating hostilities with Moscow. Putin has responded to Western statements in recent days by putting the country’s nuclear forces on alert.
The banking restrictions are arguably the most serious form of economic
retaliation yet approved by Western powers in response to Russia’s
attack on Ukraine. They are aimed at preventing Putin from using his
nation’s sizable financial reserves — totaling more than $600 billion —
to stabilize the Russian economy in the face of other sanctions and
economic measures imposed by the West.
“In one fell swoop, the U.S. and Europe have rendered Putin’s war chest
unusable. … That the U.S. and Europe have done this in unified fashion
sends a crystal-clear message that Russia will face dramatic costs so
long as Putin’s war of aggression continues,” said Edward Fishman,
former Russia and Europe sanctions lead at the State Department. “This
action represents a sea change in U.S. and European strategy. Just 72
hours ago, a step like this was unthinkable.”
Putin’s bank reserves were intended to buffer the impact of such a blow. “The steps being announced will undermine Russia’s ability to prop up the ruble,” said Richard Nephew, a senior research scholar at Columbia University. “The Russians won’t be able to defend the currency easily, and its value will tank.”
Some critics have wondered how Putin may react to the attack on Russia’s economy. Mark Weisbrot, a liberal economist and a director at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, said putting sanctions on the reserves could lead to an “economic collapse.”
“The Biden administration needs to de-escalate this conflict and move toward a diplomatic solution before it is too late,” Weisbrot said.
Isn't it already too late? Even if we had the will to negotiate, what is our strategic goal in the negotiations? As I asked apocryphally in an earlier post, what if Russia agreed to leave Ukraine tomorrow if we remove all of these sanctions? Do we accept? They are not going to leave tomorrow of course, and the point is even if they did we would not remove the sanctions. Then two months from now when Russia gets its money back it re-invades.
“It has historically been viewed as almost beyond the pale [Like resorting to nuclear weapons, Mark?] — the thing to do when sanctions, and diplomacy, have been seemingly exhausted,” Smith said. “That the international community was willing to go this far, and suffer the consequences of doing so … suggests just how far this crisis has gone in just its first week.”
Ah, that's the rub, isn't it? Did we willingly, knowingly and intelligently--not emotionally--sign up to "suffer the consequences"? The answer is no. And if Putin shuts off gas to Europe the U.S. can't make up the difference. Think OPEC will give Europe a break on prices? Hmm, I wonder!. So we tank Russia's economy, Russia tanks Europe's economy, that tanks the American economy and voila China rules the world!
Anonymous Steps Up
The collective has declared cyber war on Russia and DDOS'd kremlin.ru, the Ministry of Defense, Russia Today, and my favorite,
Someone hacked into Russian state TV channels. They feature Ukrainian music and national symbols. 🇺🇦
— BECZKA (@beczka_tv) February 26, 2022
Internet users suspect that this may be another action by the hacker group #Anonymous, which declared a cyber war to Russia in connection with the attack on #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/XaoclymVTs
😁😂👏
Leo Bersani: “There is a big secret about sex: most people don’t like it,” Dead at 90
An all-time great quote and one which, I think, is true. Professor Bersani, who taught at Berkeley, died in a care facility in Arizona on Feb. 20.
HUGE Week for the “Heat”
Tonight in Bang Bus against the second-place “Male Cows.”
Wednesday in Beer against the 5th-place and defending champs “Male Deer.”
The next night in the Borough against eighth BKLYN.
A day off and then Jo and the Beard, third, come banging on the Bus.
Miami has twenty-one games left. These four (19% of the remainder) in six nights will go a fair way toward setting the existing seating order in the East or resetting it.
The West Has Given Putin No Off Ramp
He escalated over the weekend and is continuing today on his course with even greater brutality.
In negotiations where so much has already happened, but where the worst is yet to come; where nuclear brinksmanship has already taken place; in any negotiation there is pride involved; if there is genuine desire to negotiate, the side with the upper hand must throw a sop to the weaker. Kennedy thoroughly humiliated Khrushchev in 1962, but even then, in a secret side agreement, he removed missiles from Turkey.
The West made decisions while feeling extreme emotion. They were tactical and emotionally reactive. What is the West's strategic goal? Even if it is as simple and as unrealistic as "Russia go home", if Russia did that today would the sanctions be lifted? What if, infinitely more likely, Russia conquers Ukraine and then exits? Do the sanctions continue then? For how long? Are the Russian people to be starved, their economy driven back to 1998?--which I am fine with, by the way. The point is the West has not thought this through several tactical steps: "We do this, they do that, we, they...Russia exits, we lift sanctions."--because we have no clear, thoughtful, realistic strategic objective Putin does! His objective, at the least, is a rollback of NATO. Our strategic goal should be determined first. Then the tactical steps to get there developed. Those steps must lead--quickly--to a path marked with candy to incentivize Putin to detour.
Day 5, Feb. 28
Russian convoy north of Kyiv is now stretched out over at least 17 miles.
… The line of vehicles is so extensive that it was not entirely captured in today’s satellite imagery. In some areas, the vehicles are two to three rows deep.It is unclear if the convoy is planning to go toward Kyiv’s city center or if it will possibly join forces with other Russian troops to encircle the city.
It is hopeless. There is no chance Ukraine can resist anywhere near the full might even of Russian conventional forces.
Day 5, Feb. 28
Switzerland says it will freeze Russian assets, setting aside a tradition of neutrality.
GENEVA — Switzerland, a favorite destination for Russian oligarchs and their money, announced on Monday that it would freeze Russian financial assets in the country, setting aside a deeply rooted tradition of neutrality to join the European Union and a growing number of nations seeking to penalize Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.
After a meeting with the Swiss Federal Council, Switzerland’s president, Ignazio Cassis, said that the country would immediately freeze the assets of Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail V. Mishustin and Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov, as well as all 367 individuals sanctioned last week by the European Union.
After a meeting with the Swiss Federal Council, Switzerland’s president, Ignazio Cassis, said that the country would immediately freeze the assets of Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail V. Mishustin and Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov, as well as all 367 individuals sanctioned last week by the European Union.
Day 5
Reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelensky signed an application for Ukraine’s membership in the European Union.
Day 5
19 minutes ago
Reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine
Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Belarus have ended, and delegations are returning to capitals for consultations. The end of the discussions coincided with what was reportedly a renewed bombing of Kharkiv as well as explosions in Kyiv.
Day 5
The ruble crashes, the stock market closes and Russia’s economy staggers under sanctions.
… the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West over the weekend were shaking the foundations of Russia’s economy. The decisions by the United States, Britain and the European Union restricting the Russian Central Bank’s access to much of its $643 billion in foreign currency reserves have undone much of the Kremlin’s careful efforts to soften the impact of potential sanctions.
…
“So, has Russia become Venezuela or is it still Iran?” the morning-show host on the liberal-leaning Echo of Moscow radio station asked an economist on Monday.
“We’ll go through the Iran phase, but what happens after that is hard to say.”
…
…some analysts fear that Russia’s economic instability could lead Mr. Putin to escalate his conflict with the West using new military threats or other means, such as cyberattacks.
…
But there was also extreme uncertainty inside Russia as the value of people’s savings evaporated and the interconnections with the Western world that Russians had come to take for granted in the last three decades rapidly broke away. …
“Times change, much has happened, but one thing has not changed,” a reporter on the state-run news channel Rossiya 24 said on Sunday. “When a united Europe tried to destroy Russia, this always ended up bringing about the opposite result.”
[Putin’s nuclear high alert order] highlighted anew the question, coursing through the American intelligence community, about the state of mind of the Russian leader, a man previously described as pragmatic, calculating and cunning. The former director of national intelligence, James R. Clapper Jr., said in public today what some officials have been saying in private since the Russian leader began accusing Ukraine of genocide and claiming it was developing nuclear weapons of its own.
“I personally think he’s unhinged,” Mr. Clapper said on CNN. “I worry about his acuity and balance.”
…
Now the question is how General Gerasimov will translate Mr. Putin’s vaguely worded order for “special combat readiness” into action. The answer should be clear in the next day or two.
A vast nuclear-detection apparatus run by the United States and its allies monitors Russia’s nuclear forces at all times, and experts said they would not be surprised to see Russian bombers taken out of their hangars and loaded with nuclear weapons, or submarines stuffed with nuclear weapons leave port and head out to sea.
Both Russia and the United States conduct drills that replicate various levels of nuclear alert status, so the choreography of such moves is well understood by both sides. A deviation from usual practice would almost certainly be noticeable.
…
Mr. Putin’s outburst reminded many nuclear experts of one of Mr. Trump’s tweets [my button’s bigger than Kim Jong-Un’s button and my button works facepalm 🤦].
In video of a meeting with Mr. Putin, Russia’s top two military chiefs looked stricken as he ordered them to place his nation’s nuclear forces into a “special mode of combat duty.”
They did. I watched that and they looked—I hadn’t thought of “stricken,” that is the perfect word—taken by surprise, shocked, duty-bound, as if they had been struck a blow. Their faces betrayed grave misgiving. There may be some serious but quiet opposition among Putin’s top advisors.
Sunday, February 27, 2022
… an onslaught of Russian tanks and assault vehicles captured on video storming toward the capital, Kyiv, has triggered fears of further bloodshed.
…
Ukrainian officials have charged that Russian soldiers have indiscriminately fired on ambulances, kindergartens and residential neighborhoods. At least 353 civilians have been killed in the four days since the invasion began, Ukrainian officials said Sunday.
Just as unnerving for the United States and its allies was Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that he had moved his nuclear deterrent forces into alert, heightening worries of nuclear superpowers forced back into brinkmanship.
Putin’s action came as Russia faced an increasingly devastating package of sanctions from the United States and European allies designed to block the Kremlin from its vast currency reserves in the West and sever key Russian banks from SWIFT…
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that Russia had ambushed cities and slaughtered civilians…
“They are fighting against everything alive,” Zelensky said. “They kill our children, destroy our homes, try to blow up everything…
Also foreboding was word from U.S. officials that Belarus…is preparing to send soldiers into Ukraine as soon as Monday…
I don't know what to think about this, folks, I really don't. I'm proud and worried.
Historic sanctions on Russia had
roots in emotional appeal from Zelensky
A video call by the Ukrainian wartime leader prompted jaded European leaders to act
Thursday night... the presidents and prime ministers quickly approved sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and some of Russia’s biggest banks. Talk of barring Russia from the global financial messaging system known as SWIFT, however, stalled amid skepticism on the part of Scholz and the leaders of Austria, Italy and Cyprus...
Then Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dialed into the meeting via teleconference with a bracing appeal that left some of the world-weary politicians with watery eyes. In just five minutes, Zelensky — speaking from the battlefield of Kyiv — pleaded with European leaders...
“It was extremely, extremely emotional,” said a European official briefed on the call. “He was essentially saying, ‘Look, we are here dying for European ideals.’” Before ending the video call, Zelensky told the gathering matter-of-factly that it might be the last time they saw him alive, according to a senior European official who was present.
Is "extremely, extremely emotional", and "teary-eyed" the state to be in when making what may be life-and-death decisions? It is awful of me to point this out but it is what immediately came to mind: Zelensky was an actor.
...Zelensky’s personal appeal overwhelmed the resistance from European leaders to imposing measures that could drive the Russian economy into a state of near collapse.
...
The actions culminated on Saturday, when the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and the European Union announced they would bar several major Russian banks from...SWIFT...
The unprecedented moves led Russians to crowd ATMs in a desperate bid to withdraw cash...
Muscovites at a bank Sunday.
...and sparked a furious response from Putin, who
called them “illegitimate” and ordered his nuclear forces to a higher
state of alert.
So nuclear high alert was in response to SWIFT. Folks, did we really, unemotionally, want to do this?
The latest sanctions mean the Western allies are effectively waging financial war against Russia...
“We’re not going to fight with bullets. We’re going to choke them
financially,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn
Global Forex.
That looks like a distinction that went right over Putin's head, Marc!
...even before they have taken effect, the Russian financial system is wobbling. The ruble, which already was near a historic low against the dollar, plunged in informal trading in Moscow. “The Russian ruble has been crushed and it’s going to get crushed further,” said Chandler.
Marc. Shut. The. Fuck. Up.
...Sunday, the fraying of Russian ties with the global economy accelerated. The European Union closed its airspace to Russian aircraft and announced it would fund the purchase of weapons for the first time in what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called a “watershed moment.”
It's a fucking watershed, Ursual! Do you know what is on the other side?
The oil giant BP said it would “exit” its nearly 20 percent stake in the Russian energy company Rosneft. Two directors from BP...have resigned from the Rosneft board. FedEx and United Parcel Service also announced they have suspended shipments to Russia.
On Saturday, the credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut the Russian government debt rating to “junk.”...
...the Western sanctions campaign is closing like a vise on the Russian economy.
“There’ll be a huge sudden spike in the cost of living... huge change in
the availability of ...medicine and
technology, and a huge jolt to the economic power structure,” said Adam
Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
“You are essentially directing a financial crisis in another country.”
We all okay with all this hugeness? I am NOT. This is a fucking MISTAKE!
...in 2014 following the Russian takeover of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, Putin... stockpiled foreign exchange reserves and shifted away from the dollar.
It was a costly strategy. Even as the Russian central bank accumulated $630 billion in reserves, up from just $356 billion in 2015, Putin presided over average annual economic growth of just 0.8 percent. Russia sold off most of its U.S. treasury securities in recent years and bulked up on gold, which now accounts for 20 percent of its total reserves, according to the Institute for International Finance.
But Russia would need to sell that gold for dollars, euros or yen before it could use those reserves to support the ruble. And the sanctions, which Japan joined on Sunday, make that impossible. “It’s still legal tender, but you can’t spend it,” said Posen, a former member of the Bank of England’s policymaking committee.
For millions of Russians, the looming economic calamity threatens to turn the clock back. Russians have a visceral memory of the country’s 1998 financial crisis, when Moscow devalued the ruble and defaulted on its foreign debt. The economic blow wiped out the savings of millions of people.
...In an interview two years ago with the Russian state news agency Tass, Putin said that during the 2008 global financial crisis, he thought, “What I will not allow is a repeat of the 1998 situation, when all citizens completely lost their savings.”...
Russia largely doesn’t manufacture consumer products such as cars, electronics, computers and appliances, leaving consumers vulnerable to sudden price hikes as the ruble sinks.
If it does, the seeds of Russia’s latest economic catastrophe will have
been sown over the past week, as European officials gradually faced a
reckoning...
IT WAS THE WRONG FUCKING RECKONING! RECKON WITH NUCLEAR OBLITERATION! YOU WENT TO THE MOVIES AND GOT ALL TEARY-EYED. I AM PROUD THAT YOU STOOD UP FOR UKRAINE DESPITE SELF-INTEREST. I AM WORRIED THAT YOU STOOD UP FOR UKRAINE AGAINST SELF-PRESERVATION.
Without SWIFT, Russian institutions will be forced to fall back on a
telex network and other less convenient and more costly alternatives.
Fax machines? Abacuses?
[One European] official said that Europeans are trying to hit Russia with sanctions
that are tough enough to bite without provoking a wider war. “Everyone
understands this is a situation that has conflict potential and that has
to be taken into account,” the official said.
I think you have an incomplete understanding of that, European official. Quasis you need to step up, seriously. Do you still have that same goddamned headline up?...They do! Weak, Quasis, we-ick. Oh, this was the 25,000th post on this blog.
DON'T GO VOLO!
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Earlier Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine and Russia would conduct the first diplomatic talks since the Kremlin-launched invasion at the Ukrainian border with Belarus.
Quasis, you gotta step it up here, my God man. You have the same headline you did an hour ago.
We Are Clueless
KYIV, Ukraine — President Vladimir V. Putin further escalated the Ukraine crisis by placing his nuclear forces on alert, threatening the West as it increasingly rallies behind Ukraine as its citizens and its military fight back against the Russian invasion.
In brief remarks aired on state television, Mr. Putin told his defense minister and his top military commander to place Russia’s nuclear forces on alert.
...
“Just this morning, President Putin put Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert, even though he is invading a country with no nuclear weapons and is under no threat from NATO,” [Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador] said, calling it “another escalatory and unnecessary step that threatens us all.”
It does seem "unnecessary" that Putin would nuke Ukraine, which, as you say, possesses no nukes of its own. And in reality Putin is under no threat from NATO as you say. But that is not what he says, is it? He says a Ukraine in NATO is an "existential threat" to Russia, right? And he has long viewed NATO's creeping expansion as a threat, correct? President Biden said Putin's aim is to redraw the post-Soviet map of Europe. Since that is the case isn't Russia's seizure of Chernobyl consistent with that larger aim?
But Ambassador, President Biden, I go further. I ask you to lift your eyes to "the empire of lies". Isn't putting his nuclear forces on high alert, which you Ambassador, rightly call a
step that threatens us all", consistent with the U.S. being Putin's true aim? If so a high nuclear alert footing would be intentionally escalatory and necessary, wouldn't it? Consider: Is putting his nuclear forces on high alert consistent with an intent to nuke poor, little Ukraine? I don't think so and I don't think either of you think so. Would nuclear high alert be consistent with an intent to nuke European NATO countries? Sure, but Britain and France have their own nukes. He could obliterate both countries and their nuclear retaliatory capability certainly. But why would he deliver a first punch on European NATO when doing so would automatically bring the U.S. and our nukes raining down on him in a counterpunch? That really doesn't make sense. If, however, Putin launched a preemptive
thermonuclear strike on the United States and obliterated us, it would be "unnecessary" to nuke Europe, wouldn't it? Why not go whale hunting?
The Met Opera Steps Up
2 hours ago
The Metropolitan Opera says it will cut ties with pro-Putin artists.
Javier, do you have any word on what the Metropolitan Museum of Art will do? The New York Mets? Thank you for your news stories.
Don't Go Volo!
I am probably not the first, in which case I add my name to those who came before me, who is dubious of President Zelensky meeting with a Russian delegation on the Ukraine-Belarus border to “negotiate" when Russia has stated that its war on Ukraine will continue with the talks, when there is this enormous convoy of Russian reinforcements Kyiv-bound, when Putin has recently and repeatedly referred to Zelensky and his ministers as "drug-addicts and neo-Nazis," and when the U.S. State Department has concluded that the bilateral negotiations before the war were a "sham" by Russia. All told, I would think it more likely that these negotiations are a ruse to arrest Zelensky.
The Russians Are Coming!
The images, captured by the U.S. firm Maxar Technologies, show a line of Russian military vehicles — stretching for more than three miles — traveling in the direction of Kyiv. At the time the photographs were taken, on Sunday morning, the convoy was northeast of the Ukrainian city of Ivankiv, about 40 miles from the capital.
The convoy includes fuel, logistics and armored vehicles, such as tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and self-propelled artillery, Maxar reported. Separate video circulating on social media Sunday also appeared to show a number of Russian vehicles traveling through Ukraine…
An Isolated Putin Grows More Isolated--And More Removed From Reality
Putin Seems to Sideline Advisers on Ukraine, Taking a Political Risk
...
An early sign that something might be amiss came on Monday in a televised meeting of Russia’s Security Council. Mr. Putin seemed to expect all of the assembled officials to unquestioningly advise him to recognize the independence of Russian-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine — a public show of elite support for war, just days before it began in earnest.
But Sergei Naryshkin flubbed his line.
Mr. Naryshkin, the director of foreign intelligence, stuttered uncomfortably when Mr. Putin asked him about recognizing the separatists’ claims. Then he seemed to overcorrect, saying he thought Russia should recognize the breakaway republics as “part of Russia.” Mr. Putin snapped impatiently that Mr. Naryshkin should “speak clearly,” then said dismissively that annexation “was not under discussion.”
I saw that exchange; to my eyes and ears Putin did not "snap impatiently", but I am not an expert Putin observer.
The moment seemed so significant because all authoritarian leaders rule by coalition, even if, like Mr. Putin, they often appear to be wielding power on their own.
...
...the exchange with Mr. Naryshkin, gave the impression that Russian president had kept this crucial group out of the loop on his plans.
“He seemed to be humiliating some of these people, — particularly in the way he spoke to Mr. Naryshkin...
I have read that previously. I did not see that either, but (see above)
...even the seating arrangements of Mr. Putin’s recent meetings, in which he has placed himself at a literal distance from his advisers, convey an image that he is separated from everyone, including his elite coalition. It could be because he wanted to avoid catching the coronavirus, reportedly a significant fear for the Russian leader. But some observers...believe Mr. Putin intended to convey the impression that he is the king, and his advisers mere courtiers — a message they might not appreciate.
I am not (see above agayne) but I am uneasy with this armchair psychoanalysis, and there has been much of it, when there is any rational explanation to the contrary, in this case not wanting to catch COVID. The social distancing was extreme, as it was in his meeting with Macron, and is paranoid. I don't see the reason to go from that armchair diagnosis to deliberately conveying the impression that he is king.
...
... public anger over the war could undermine [him], and even become a political liability. The war will strain the Russian economy. And it has already been a blow to Mr. Putin’s public image as a careful and pragmatic steward of Russian interests.
There was low public support for war in Ukraine even before casualties began to mount. A long-running academic survey found in December that only 8 percent of Russians supported a military conflict against Ukraine, and only 9 percent thought that Russia should arm Ukrainian separatists.
...Putin’s actions this week suggest he is concerned about the consequences of public anger. On Thursday and Friday, the police arrested hundreds of people who turned out to protest the war in cities across Russia. On Saturday, the government limited access to Facebook and other media sites for the apparent offense of posting stories “in which the operation that is being carried out is called an attack, an invasion or a declaration of war.”
... the stakes for Mr. Putin in maintaining his relationship with his inner circle: “Because of the resources and access that they have, elites pose the biggest threat to authoritarian leaders. Retaining the support of elites is thus crucial to remaining in power.”
I thought of this when I read that the U.S. and others had targeted Putin and Sergei Lavrov personally with sanctions. Thomas L. Friedman had written correctly that Putin is now an international pariah. Now, so is Lavrov. I can't imagine that Lavrov, the face of Russian diplomacy to the world, respected for his penetrating negotiations, is okay with becoming Ribbentrop.
And wars often pose a particular threat to leaders’ relationships with elites. “The relationship between authoritarian rulers and their core of elite supporters can be strained when dictators wage war abroad — particularly where elites view the conflict as misguided”...
Public anger over war can also increase elites’ perception that a leader is no longer an effective protector of their interests. And if the United States and Europe manage to impose effective sanctions on members of Mr. Putin’s elite coalition, that could make the war costly for them as individuals, as well as risky for Russia.
...
Elite dissatisfaction could affect [Putin's] responsiveness to targeted sanctions, for instance, or the constraints he might face on resources for the conflict in Ukraine. It also could affect whether he has the political capital to stay the course if domestic opposition grows.
“Two-thirds of authoritarian leaders are removed by their own allies...If he tightens the screws too much, if he tries to really increase his power at the expense of the ruling authoritarian coalition, then he is threatening his own position.”
I confess that I have had this thought bubble. The Soviet Politburo got rid of Khrushchev after the Cuban Missile Crisis fiasco. It is my sense that Putin's oligarchy is not 100% behind this war with varying degrees of dissatisfaction, I would think most so with Lavrov. It is embarrassing, humiliating, to carry water for a man who is making irrational decisions--just ask those who worked for Trump!--and becoming an embarrassment and pariah yourself, but in no case is it my sense that it rises in any of them to actionable dissatisfaction. How many of Hitler's aides took action to remove him? Trump's? To a standard of beyond a reasonable doubt I believe that we are stuck with Putin and the consequences of whatever mental deterioration he is experiencing.
Careful...
E.U. to ban Russian flights from airspace...
European leaders on Sunday announced strong new measures in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including closing E.U. skies to Russian aircraft, blocking some Russian media and financing weapons for Kyiv.
The EU said that for the first time, it would “finance the purchase and delivery of weapons to a country under attack,” in this case, Ukraine.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said at a news conference in Brussels that E.U. airspace will now be closed to all Russian owned, registered or controlled aircraft, including “the private jets of oligarchs.”
The bloc of 27 nations plans to ban media outlets Sputnik, Russia Today and their subsidiaries so that they can “no longer spread lies to justify Putin’s war,” she said. “For the first time ever, we will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and other equipment for a country that is under attack,” she added.
“As the war in Ukraine rages on, and Ukrainians fight bravely for their country, the European Union steps up once more its support for Ukraine and the sanctions against the aggressor — Putin’s Russia,” Von der Leyen said.
Putin put his nuclear forces on alert in response to "aggressive statements from the West." On the first day he warned every nation not to "interfere" in the war, reminding all that Russia had a formidable nuclear arsenal "to defend itself." Are not the U.S. announcement that it would send $300M in military equipment to Ukraine, and now the EU's similar commitment, both "aggressive statements" in Putin's mind? Are not both "interference" in the war? Must needs be very careful here not to give him what he wants, nuclear war.
… Russia still has significant “operational advantages” over Ukraine, and would likely learn from errors that had slowed their advance in the days ahead.
The Russians have faced logistical challenges in sustaining support for the units operating in Ukraine, the senior defense official noted. The Pentagon has also determined that some, though not the majority, of the more than 320 missile launches Russia has undertaken against Ukraine have suffered failures.
Russia has put about two-thirds of the fighting force it had amassed around Ukraine into the country already… the third Moscow had yet to commit to the fight still represents “a lot of combat power.”
Goodness gracious. One-third Friday, all Saturday, two-thirds today. I appreciate the difficulty in getting it accurately but goodness gracious.
Russian Delegate to U.N. climate meeting: "no justification for attack"
The head of the Russian delegation at a major United Nations climate meeting apologized Sunday for his country’s invasion of Ukraine, telling hundreds of government ministers and scientists, “those who know what is happening fail to find any justification for the attack.”
Russia’s Oleg Anisimov’s unexpected remarks came during a virtual meeting of delegates from 195 nations who had convened to finalize a major assessment of how climate change will affect the globe in the coming decades, according to two participants who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk about the closed-door talks.
...
The comments by Anisimov, a scientist at the state hydrological institute, mark a rare public rebuke of the Russian invasion by a government official. His apology came after an impassioned speech from his Ukrainian counterpart, Svitlana Krakovska...
Russia’s Oleg Anisimov’s unexpected remarks came during a virtual meeting of delegates from 195 nations who had convened to finalize a major assessment of how climate change will affect the globe in the coming decades, according to two participants who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk about the closed-door talks.
...
The comments by Anisimov, a scientist at the state hydrological institute, mark a rare public rebuke of the Russian invasion by a government official. His apology came after an impassioned speech from his Ukrainian counterpart, Svitlana Krakovska...
Germany Steps Up
The government announced a dramatic increase in defense spending. And, 100,000 Germans gathered in protest at the Brandenburg Gate, 80,000 more than authorities expected.
Russian President Vladimir Putin [said] Sunday that he had put his nuclear deterrence forces into high alert, attributing the move to “aggressive statements” from the West against Russia. The White House called the order an example of “manufacturing threats that don’t exist.”
That's his aim. He's itching for nuclear war with the U.S. Has Putin bluffed in Ukraine? Not once. “Manufactured threats that don’t exist,” they are, deliberately manufactured to trigger nuclear war. That is what Putin wants and we have to take it seriously.
Kyiv endured another night of Russian strikes. In the early morning hours of Sunday, an oil depot was struck, lighting up the night sky. But Ukraine has maintained control of its capital as fighting intensified.
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It was unclear how much of the country remains under Ukrainian control and how much Russia has seized.
Reporting from London
Britain's Ministry of Defense saidfighting overnight in the Ukraine capital, Kyiv, had been less intense than the night before.
Emma on the spot…in London.
Saturday, February 26, 2022
Last Call
No change in the headlines bees and gees.
Haven't done a COVID-19 update since this war shit began. Here's a reader's digest summary of where we were last night:
Cases have dropped over two weeks 63% and in the 7-day daily average were 68,642. By the look of the Cases graph that is down from the Feb. 24 it.
Hospitalizations are down 44% with the 7-day, 55,708. That also per graph is down.
Deaths also dropped, a 23% decline and are 1,896/day from Feb. 19 through the 25th. Also down, only 2/day from the 18-24th.
The "Heat" could not get it up in the 1Q agin' San Antone tonight, falling behind 40-28; then rallied for a 61-58 lead at the half. The "Spurs" were behind 2 entering the 4th and have gotten boned hard since. It's now 123-110 Miam-uh with 6' left to play. "Heat" have scorched them 24-13 halfway through the 4th. The "Spurs" are not good, and Miami is very good and this one is ovah.
Night, termites.