*

 

*After finishing this article I had an epiphany. We have a strategy, the only one we rightfully should have: stay out of Ukraine and punish Russia with the sanctions we promised for the war. We're the toll-taker on the turnpike. To pass through you have to pay. You can't go back in time. You pass through, you pay. Forever. We have accomplished that strategy. There is no endgame, there are no off-ramps, it's done. So why are we busting yeast cells over how long to maintain sanctions? Forever! No more trade, no more "economic integration", no more coupling Ukraine with NATO roll-back, no more diplomatic relations, DONE! Be done with Russia. I've altered the original post, published at 11:54 a.m.

 

 

 

 

When Russia first invaded Ukraine two weeks ago, the near-unanimous global assumption was that it would score a quick and easy military victory over its neighbor to the west.

But now — with the Ukrainians waging a fierce resistance and Russian forces bogged down outside nearly every major city — the Biden administration and its allies say they see no clear end 

Then provide one. You have agency here. What do you want the end game to be? That is called the "strategic goal." Have we provided Putin off ramps? If so, what are they?

 to the military phase of this conflict, according to interviews with 17 administration officials, diplomats, policymakers and experts. The situation seems destined to result in an even deadlier and more protracted slog, wreaking devastation in Ukraine and causing a massive humanitarian crisis.

Shit is not "destined" to happen!

As the war enters its third week, President Biden and his team are also entering a murkier, more difficult stage of the conflict, where the new challenge is how to control the largely uncontrollable: Russian President Vladimir Putin and his endgame, whatever that may be.

The Biden administration has successfully encouraged NATO and other Western allies to use nearly every available lever of power to sanction and punish Putin, but those efforts so far have had little discernible influence over the Russian president, who has only escalated his military offensive on cities and towns across Ukraine.

No. 

...
“The longer that this goes on, the likelier it will be that Russia ends up being defeated, but also more likely that more people will die,” said a European diplomat, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment of the crisis.

 

That's a real trade-off. What is it you want? Russia defeated or save lives? If Russian defeat, then it's going to cost lives. If saving lives, which I want, then why not do this: Talk to Volo [This is when I started to realize: we can't make this decision for Ukraine. Only Ukraine can make the decision how many Ukrainian lives are to be saved or lost.] about the rest of the Ukrainians leaving, like Moscow emptied on Napoleon's approach. Putin gets the territory of Ukraine. The sanctions remain in effect in perpetuity. Russia is reduced to its 1998 state. What's wrong with that?

Jim Townsend, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy, said that right now, “everyone is kind of feeling their way forward.”

“The endgame is going to be pretty complicated, and the endgame is going to have to deal with Putin as who he is, and it’s also going to have to deal with getting Ukraine back on its feet and also deal with what to do with these sanctions,” Townsend said.

You have my suggested end game. You're welcome.

The current U.S. strategy, according to senior Biden administration officials, is to ensure that the economic costs for Russia are severe and sustainable, as well as to continue supporting Ukraine militarily in its effort to inflict as many defeats on Russia as possible.

That's not a strategy with an end game and therefore not a strategy.

And despite repeatedly engaging in diplomatic efforts with Russia in the run-up to the invasion, Biden officials have largely not pursued diplomacy with Putin since the conflict began, citing the Kremlin’s lack of seriousness about such negotiations as the reason.

I have thought many times. Somebody needs to call but, but Macron did call and Putin didn't budge.

Now entering the third week of the crisis, for instance, the Biden administration has yet to engage directly with the Russian government over an off-ramp to curb the violence or any initial steps to bring an end to the war.

There's danger here now: Munich. The U.S., nor France, can be negotiating or even calling, for Ukraine, and Ukraine and Russia are talking. [It began to sink in.]

A senior State Department official added that there are few “indications that the Russians are in any mood for serious diplomacy at the moment.”

So why would we call? The first clause in  This is our "strategy": to stay the hell out of Ukraine. We have accomplished that. If Zelensky wants us to do something like call or meet with Russia, he's been pretty forthright about asking!