Institute for the Study of War report Oct. 3, 9 p.m. (pretty current)
Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours. ...Ukrainian troops are continuing to push east of Lyman and may have broken through the Luhansk Oblast border in the direction of Kreminna.[2] As ISW has previously reported, the Russian groupings in northern Kherson Oblast and on the Lyman front were largely comprised of units that had been regarded as among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces before the war.[3] Elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army reportedly withdrew from Lyman to rear positions near Kreminna before October 2.[4] Russian sources previously reported that elements of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), especially the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, are active in Kherson Oblast.[5] Both the 144th Motorized Rifle Division and the 76th Guards Air Assault Division were previously lauded as some of Russia’s most elite forces, and their apparent failures to hold territory against major Ukrainian counter-offensive actions is consistent with ISW’s previous assessment that even the most elite Russian military forces are becoming increasingly degraded as the war continues. This phenomenon was also visible in the collapse of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army earlier in the Kharkiv counter-offensive.[6]
All of the above informs "Ukraine is Winning the War." Below is inside baseball stuff that is not without interest to show the lengths Putin is going to confuse critics.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may be continuing efforts to redirect blame for recent Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian outlet ะ ะะ (RBK)...reported on October 3 that Lieutenant-General Roman Berdnikov has replaced Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlev as commander of the Western Military District...[7]...Zhuravlev has not been seen for some time... Putin may be attempting to redirect the growing anger for Russian losses in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman by assigning a new face... This announcement may also be an effort to shield Colonel General Alexander Lapin, commander of the Central Military District (CMD), from widespread criticism for recent Russian failures around Lyman.[9] Putin may seek to shift the blame for future Russian losses in Kharkiv and possibly Luhansk Oblasts to Berdnikov. Criticism of Lapin in recent days has served as a catalyst for wider breakdown within the Russian nationalist information space, and Berdnikov’s appointment may be intended to distract and redirect that growing dissatisfaction.
It has been awhile since I have read an ISW report so for my sake as much as readers': Putin replaced Zhuravlev, who is in parts unknown currently, with Berdnikov. This was in an attempt to deflect blame for Kharkiv and Lyman from Zhuravlev with a New! Improved! military leader in the West. You won't have Zhuravlev to kick around any more. And the Berdnkikov appointment could be to shield Lapin for Lyman. Putin may direct blame for furthur losses in Kharkiv and maybe Luhansk on Berdnikov. So Putin is offering the Russian public and cognos a game of whack-a-mole ultimately to protect Lapin as criticism of him has caused the Russian nationalist disinformation campaign to suffer.
I would add that Russian forces in their degraded and demoralized state are not going to be assisted by the weather in and around Kyiv.
For Sept the average high was 68 F and the average low 60 F: ideal temperatures.
In October however the temps get chillier, averages of 55 and 41.
In November, 42 and 33. That’s very uncomfortable to be outdoors.
For December the average high is 33 and the low 25. That leads to frostbite and you can never get warm with the temperature only getting, on average, one degree warmer than the freezing point.
January’s in Kyiv are 31 and 22; February’s 33 and 21.
Russian forces had a devil of a time in the Kyiv weather at the start if the war in late Feb. but the weather eased in March and then got balmy with April forward. In other words the Russian army missed the harshest months of December, January and most of February at the start of the war and they still had great difficulty. They now face five straight months of deteriorating, and colder, weather. Good luck with that, Rooski. In sum:
Glory to Ukraine! ๐ป
