Tax problems looming for Heat: Why big move is needed this year and the risk Miami runs
If Oladipo opts out - a good possibility if he continues playing well - the Heat would still be at least $6 million over the tax line and would have only these seven players under contract:
Jimmy Butler ($45.2 million), Bam Adebayo ($32.6 million), Kyle Lowry ($29.7 million), Tyler Herro ($27 million), Duncan Robinson ($18.2 million), Caleb Martin ($6.8 million) and Nikola Jovic ($2.4 million). An eight player would be under contract if the Heat exercises its $1.9 million team option on Haywood Highsmith.
So Miami - without trimming payroll - would be in line to pay about a $10 million tax bill if its keeps its current roster but does not re-sign Oladipo, Strus, Vincent and Yurtseven and replaces all of them with inexperienced, minimum salary players and a 2023 first-round pick. That’s not realistic.
If the Heat decided to spend $12 million to keep Oladipo - but not Strus, Vincent or Yurtseven - that would result in a tax bill topping $40 million. That’s not realistic, either.
So something must change.
…if Oladipo opts in (a possibility if he’s injured again) and the Heat kept this same roster intact and re-signed Strus but not Vincent or Yurtseven?
If Strus signed a deal starting at $7 million next season, the Heat’s luxury tax next season - with all of its other players under contract, including Oladipo opting in - would mushroom to more than $50 million.
What if Oladipo opts out and the Heat gives him $12 million, Strus and Vincent $6 million apiece and Yurtseven $3 million?
That would be a tax bill in the range of $94 million. There’s a better chance of a snowstorm by Miami-Dade Arena than the Heat paying that kind of tax bill for a non-championship team.
That’s why the Heat must trim payroll if it has any intention of keeping even two among Oladipo, Vincent or Strus and avoid paying a big tax. Even if the Heat parts with all of those players, signing anyone above the minimum to replace them would result in a large tax bill.
How did the Heat get itself in this situation? By agreeing to pay four players [Jimmy Butler ($45.2 million), Bam Adebayo ($32.6 million), Kyle Lowry ($29.7 million), Tyler Herro ($27 million)] between $27 million and $45 million next season, and by giving Robinson a deal that pays him $18 million next season.
