Miami has never quite rebounded from Butler’s missed 3 at the end of Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals last May.
That's what I have said. I chalked it up to physical and emotional fatigue. Here, Joe Vardon says 601 Biscayne didn't repair the roster:
...how they respond in the aftermath. The Heat simply didn’t rebound properly.
It started by losing P.J. Tucker to free agency and the Philadelphia 76ers. Tucker is just one player, and he was with the Heat for only one season, but he was the perfect complement to Butler and Bam Adebayo in Miami’s defensive scheme. Miami didn’t replace him from the outside and jostled all year between Caleb Martin, Max Strus and, eventually, Kevin Love as starters in Tucker’s spot. None can quite do what Tucker does, a problem that was exacerbated by other lineup changes the Heat were forced to make.
Oh here we go, the P.J. Tucker Experience. After our Bubble burst and Jae Crowder went to PHO it was the Jae Crowder Missing Link that was responsible for the drop-off in 2020/21. Look, Vardon has forgotten more hoops than I'll ever know but in my opinion he is wrong here. No one else on the roster "can do quite what Tucker does." Bullshit. Imo.
Vardon writes besides missing the P.J. Tucker Experience there was disappointment with,
Kyle Lowry...There was and there is but Vardon is contrasting 53-win 2021/22 Miami and 44-win 2022/23 Miami and Lowry was achingly, infuriatingly absent for many of those 53 wins, too.
We didn't miss the Kyle Lowry Effect so much because,
His replacement, Gabe Vincent, averaged a career high in points and was only slightly less efficient...
But with no Tucker, and no Lowry (at least not the one they were hoping they’d get when they signed him...), a lineup in which Herro (an offensive juggernaut and defensive liability) was starting at off guard was more vulnerable. The Heat slipped five slots in defensive rating, from the fourth-best team defense last season to No. 9 this year. ...
Then there is the regression in 3-point shooting:
Duncan Robinson...
Victor Oladipo...
Agreed. Management should have seen the coming of Donut's collapse and Vic got hurt in like his fourth game with us. But again, Donut's Bubble started leaking when Spo disappeared him in the playoffs in 2019/20. Donut is worse this year but he was awful last year, too! We didn't have Vic in the Bubble year. Ergo, Donut and Vic, who has played some this season, are not the answer.
...
Vardon writes that the "Heat" were emotionally hung over from last season's Game 7 loss to Boston.
Losses like that are difficult to swallow for anyone who endures them. It’s not a new phenomenon to the Heat.
I don't think that Game 7 explains this season. I don't know what Vardon means by that last sentence.
...
An emotional letdown was followed by something similar in performance from a number of Miami’s important starters and role players. That’s how a group that is mostly unchanged from the team that was the No. 1 seed in the East in 2022 is now on the verge of missing the playoffs entirely this season.
So Vardon goes from the general, the team collectively, was emotionally hung over, to the specific, "something similar in performance" from key players.(?) What is "similar"? I take it in context that Vardon is writing that there was a team emotional letdown and then a performance letdown, not that the emotional bummer was more acute with key individuals. Donut regressed--further; that is not a "letdown", though. That continued a trend. Tyler Herro has not suffered a performance letdown. If we hadn't had Tyler we'd have scored at a college level in some games this season. Lowry continues a trend. Vic was a little help this season. I have read, and I accept Vardon if he goes on to say that Gabe Vincent has regressed, that Caleb Martin has regressed, Strus too; Bam, I don't know what to make about Bam. He disappears in some game. Somebody named Clint Capella had 22 rebounds against Bam in the ATL loss. Bam has not turned into a dominant 5 but nobody expected him to be Kareem or Shaq, the guy is 6'9" in his bare feet! Lovey Dovey Turtle Dovey, obviously we didn't have him last season. Vardon would say, "That's right! You had P.J. Tucker!" I don't buy it, I don't take that as explanation even when offered to me free. Put all of Vardon's indictees into one pot and you don't fall from 53 to 44 wins
However, imo there is a link that Vardon does not see in that pot of P.J., Caleb, Max, Gabe, Kevin and Vic: Culture. Pat Riley disdains the draft, gives away draft picks with impunity for ol' heads, Riles loves ol' heads, vets, guys who have been through it. If he can't get an ol' head Riles wants young "diamonds in the rough" like Donut (Michigan's SIXTH MAN!), Caleb, Gabe, Max, G-Leaguers then and now. Vardon does not see that opposing teams adjust to the new guy. How many times has a Heater burst on the scene, Young Whiteside, Donut, Omar Yurtseven, Josh Richardson, Caleb, Max, Gabe, fucking Dewayne Dedomn!, and then their bubbles burst as opposing teams figure out the games of these one-trick ponies. It's all smoke and mirrors and then after a year or two they're traded and they go back to being G-Leaguers.
“At least we have a lot of experience,” Spoelstra said.