Paragraph head bolding in original. Underlining added. Bolding in paragraph text added.
Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since Sunday, June 4.
...
Ukrainian forces conducted a limited but still significant attack in western Zaporizhia Oblast on the night of June 7 to 8. Russian forces apparently defended against this attack in a doctrinally sound manner and had reportedly regained their initial positions as of June 8.
...
Ukrainian forces also reportedly lost Western-provided vehicles on June 8.[7] Losses are inevitable during any military undertaking. Ukrainian forces will suffer losses, including of both Western and Soviet equipment, during any offensive operations. Western equipment is not impervious to damage any more than the equipment that the Ukrainians have been using and losing since February 2022. The loss of equipment — including Western equipment — early on in the counteroffensive is not an indicator of the future progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. It is important not to exaggerate the impact of initial losses of Western or any other equipment, particularly in penetration battles against prepared defensive positions.
This is a noteworthy shift in tone for ISW, a shift that is mirrored in substance below. Each of the bolded clauses in the above paragraph indicates the tonal shift and is most marked in ISW Director of Strategic Initiatives Jennifer Cafarella's tweet here:
Deep breaths everyone. One engagement won’t determine the outcome of the war or even the offensive. Far from it. At ISW we call it like it is. The Russians repelled this specific attack. It happens. It’s war.
1:56 PM · Jun 9, 2023 14.8K Views
My takeaway: the counteroffensive got off to a bad, and worse than expected start. More below from ISW.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) responded to the Ukrainian
attack with an uncharacteristic degree of coherency and praised
Southern Military District elements for repelling the attack and
regaining lost positions.
The overall Russian response to the attack, both among various milbloggers and the Russian MoD, was notably coherent and relatively consistent with the available visual evidence, which may suggest that Russian forces were not surprised and reacted in a controlled and militarily sound manner. ...the Russian information space reacts with a high degree of chaos and incoherence when taken by surprise by battlefield developments that do not allow the propaganda apparatus to develop a clear line.[11] By contrast, the Russian responses to this attack suggest that Russian forces defended in the way that they had prepared to...Continuous Russian missile and drone attacks against Kyiv and critical Ukrainian infrastructure may have fixed Ukraine’s more advanced air defense systems away from the frontline... ISW’s previous assessments that Russian air and missile attacks were not setting conditions to defend against the Ukrainian counter-offensive may thus have been inaccurate. ...CNN additionally reported that an anonymous US official said that Russian landmines degraded Ukrainian armored vehicles.
