For two weeks since Hamas’s political leader was assassinated in Iran, the Islamic republic has kept the region on edge.
Almost every day, a new threat emerges from one of its senior political or military officials vowing to punish Israel for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh while he was on an official visit to Tehran. The powerful Revolutionary Guard has announced new military exercises, airlines have rescheduled flights and those likely to be affected have had time to ponder how Iran might respond — but with few clues as to how or when.
And this is exactly how Iran’s leadership wants it, according to a regime insider. “There may be no attack at all, or there could be one tonight,” he said. “Waiting for death is more difficult than death itself.”
He continued: “Iran has launched a psychological warfare campaign to keep Israel’s military, security, and logistical capabilities on edge, denying residents of the occupied territories any sense of calm.”
The challenge for Tehran is how to respond robustly to appease its hardline constituency and the regional militants it backs while avoiding the direct conflict with Israel and its ally the US that it has long sought to evade. The regime’s primary objective is the survival of the Islamic republic, along with addressing the economic hardships that have fuelled public dissent.
Amid a sense that retaliation may be close, many Iranians are troubled by the looming possibility of war with Israel, a conflict they see as both unnecessary and potentially devastating to an economy on the brink.
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After Israel killed several Revolutionary Guards commanders in an attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria, Tehran responded by launching hundreds of missiles and drones into Israeli airspace, most of which were intercepted by Israel and its allies, notably the US. That attack was clearly telegraphed in advance, and Iran claimed that its actions were intended to demonstrate its readiness for direct confrontation with Israel should it go further.
Yes, it was.
...the killing of Haniyeh in Iranian state-provided accommodation has taken tensions to new heights. ...Iran has accused it of orchestrating the killing and warned that the country had again crossed a line, making retaliation inevitable. Diplomats say Iran is keeping its cards close to its chest.
Iranian analysts say the Haniyeh killing was all the more humiliating because it occurred in the capital just hours after Haniyeh had attended Pezeshkian’s inauguration. The new president took power last month with a promise to resume nuclear talks with western powers and secure relief from US sanctions.
Israel had to kill Haniyeh, but. But, in my opinion, Netanyahu deliberately chose Tehran and this time 1) with intent to humiliate Iran, and 2) to scuttle any possibility of a renewal of JCPOA. President Biden said after the assassination that Israel's assassination "didn't help" efforts to end the Israel-Hamas war.
The US has sent back-channel messages to Iran urging it not to escalate and warning that a retaliation is not in Tehran’s interests, while Washington has built up its military presence in the region to help defend Israel.
On Monday, US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told journalists that “it’s increasingly likely that there will be an attack” by Iran or its proxies, and that it “could be this week”.
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A statement by the Iranian mission to the UN on Friday hinted that the Gaza ceasefire talks could affect the timing of any response, but the message was typically ambiguous.
“Our priority is to establish a lasting ceasefire in Gaza; any agreement accepted by Hamas will also be recognised by us,” Iran’s statement said. While it said the country’s retaliation was “a matter totally unrelated to the Gaza ceasefire”, it added that “our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire”.
The regime insider said that while Iran would “keep its finger on the trigger”, it would also want to “see if Israel will first compromise on Gaza, forcing Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire, and second, if the US and western states will return to negotiations to revive the nuclear accord”.
Yet Iranian politicians are wary that Netanyahu might benefit from dragging Iran into a war that could prompt US intervention.
Yes, those are the two considerations. Netanyahu does not want either a ceasefire in Gaza nor a resumption of JCPOA. If he can goad Iran into attacking, the U.S. is already in the Gulf and would respond to protect Israel.
Ahmad Dastmalchian, Iran’s former ambassador to Lebanon, said Tehran believed that Netanyahu had tied his political survival to a regional war.
“He will do all he can to drag the region into a bloody fight,” he said, while adding that Iran and its proxy forces “know better than to play that game”.
I agree with everything that guy said.
