And now what I did not think reasonably conceivable, Dem incumbent Bob Casey in Pa. is in a dead heat with his lunatic opponent who resides in Connecticut and is being outspent by 40%. Casey self-terms as underdog but still thinks he will win.

So with all of this I will make some judgments. 

-I found Nate Silver's explanation of the lack of a post-convention bounce convincing: RFK, Jr.'s drop-out, endorsement. That has stalled Kamala's Walz. 

-Tuesday night's debate is now key.

-I am increasingly drawn to Stuart Stevens' view that the race is going to remain tight but that then there will be a pronounced shift to Kamala. I agree with Stevens that in the end Kamala will win more convincingly in the popular vote than Biden did (+4.5), and with Nate Silver's analysis that a Kamala margin over three tips the Electoral College decisively in her direction. This, from a different survey Wednesday:

Not precisely "undecided", but "persuadable". That's a lot of persuadables. If even a fraction of those 11%-15% who have an open mind changed their minds the benefiting candidate would win those states.

In the Times/Siena poll a very small number, 5%, were undecided, but even that very small number would give a decisive win if they moved heavily to one candidate. And similar to the open minders in the survey above,  "28 percent of likely voters" in the Times survey "said they felt they needed to know more about Ms. Harris, while only 9 percent said they needed to know more about Mr. Trump." That is a major, major advantage to Kamala, a major opportunity for her that trumpie does not have.

It amounts to a lotta lot of low info voters who are persuadable. Kamala has immensely more cash on hand to give these likely voters the info they say the need. She will and I think she will win this bloc decisively.

-I am worried about Pa. as every D is. I am perplexed by Az. I am suspicious of Wi, which I just don't know well. I am skeptical of Ga. Their board of elections is majority election deniers and they have stripped honest-R Brad Raffensperger of authority to certify results. Georgia is a state that trumpie could steal in every sense. Obviously, if Kamala loses all, it will be an Electoral College landslide for trumpie.

-I believe in my heart and mind that Kamala will win at least Pa. Wi., Mi. and Neb-2 and will win the White House.