On the other hand...
The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi, reiterated Thursday that the damage done by Israeli and U.S. strikes at Iranian nuclear facilities “is very, very, very considerable” and that he can only assume the centrifuges are not operational.
“I think annihilated is too much, but it suffered enormous damage,” Grossi told French broadcaster RFI. The IAEA has not been allowed to visit any of the Iranian facilities to do an independent assessment of the damage.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, also conceded Wednesday that “our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that’s for sure.”
8:57 pm
I thought I had read that these bunker buster bombs (GBU-57s) had not been used in real life previously. Turns out I had read that. The Guardian, June 18:
The effectiveness of GBU-57s has been a topic of deep contention at the Pentagon since the start of Trump’s term...
...
...defense officials who received the briefing were told that using conventional bombs, even as part of a wider strike package of several GBU-57s, would not penetrate deep enough underground and that it would only do enough damage to collapse tunnels and bury it under rubble.
Which is exactly what the after-the-fact preliminary damage assessment concluded.
The difficulty with using the GBU-57 to target Fordow, according to the two officials familiar with the DTRA briefing, lies in part with the characteristics of the facility which is buried inside a mountain – and the fact that the bomb has never been used in a comparable situation before.
“It would not be a one and done,” a former Dtra deputy director, retired Maj Gen Randy Manner, said of the GBU-57’s limitations, adding that Fordow could be quickly rebuilt. “It might set the program back six months to a year. It sounds good for TV but it’s not real.”
"Sounds good for TV but not real"
The effectiveness of GBU-57s has been a topic of deep contention at the Pentagon since the start of Trump’s term...
...
...defense officials who received the briefing were told that using conventional bombs, even as part of a wider strike package of several GBU-57s, would not penetrate deep enough underground and that it would only do enough damage to collapse tunnels and bury it under rubble.
Which is exactly what the after-the-fact preliminary damage assessment concluded.
“It would not be a one and done,” a former Dtra deputy director, retired Maj Gen Randy Manner, said of the GBU-57’s limitations, adding that Fordow could be quickly rebuilt. “It might set the program back six months to a year. It sounds good for TV but it’s not real.”
Which is exactly what it was.
Guardian:
8:01 pm
Trump Admin Conclusions that Operation Midnight Marshmallow "obliterated" Iran Nuke Sites Based on AI Models
Guardian:
Defense chief says US bombings degraded Iran’s nuclear sites, citing AI models over leaked intel doubts
[Hegseth]and the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Gen Dan Caine, largely based that assessment on AI modeling, showing test videos of the “bunker buster” bombs used in the strikes and referred questions on a battle damage assessment of Fordow to the intelligence community.
...
Caine said the strikes were successful insofar as the attack matched a model developed by the Pentagon that he said predicted the destruction of the Fordow site. ...“The majority of the damage we assess based on our extensive modeling of the blast”...
3:43 pm
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: ...the US "gained no achievements" from strikes on its nuclear facilities...
US gained nothing from strikes, Iran's supreme leader says
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: ...the US "gained no achievements" from strikes on its nuclear facilities...
...the strikes did not "accomplish anything significant" to disrupt Iran's nuclear programme, and described the retaliation against an American air base in Qatar as dealing a "heavy blow".
Axios
There is more truth in his statements than in Trump's (except for that last, the telegraphed strike in Qatar).
8:06 am
Yes, and like most media battles, he wins:
