Thursday, June 19, 2025

Public Occurrences June 19, 2025

Trump has been briefed on both the risks and the benefits of bombing Fordo, Iran's most secure nuclear site, and his mindset is that disabling it is necessary because of the risk of weapons being produced in a relatively short period of time, multiple sources told CBS News.

That's the chalk time period according to most, but not including U.S. intelligence which continues to assess that IRAN IS NOT ON A PATH TO MAKING AN A-BOMB!

"He believes there's not much choice," one source said.
...
Congressional committees that have been briefed by senior CIA analysts have been told the intelligence community's view remains that no order to weaponize has been given by the supreme leader and that Iran has not restarted research on a delivery mechanism for a nuclear bomb.

The CIA declined to comment.


Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Wednesday that "so far, at least, the intelligence community has stood by its conclusion that Iran is not moving towards a nuclear weapon."

"They were enriching additional uranium, but they were not weaponizing that yet, and that [decision] was left with the supreme leader," he told reporters. "If there has been a change in that intelligence, I need to know..."

...
Iran — which has long insisted the program exists solely for peaceful purposes — said Wednesday it "does NOT negotiate under duress," and said it would "respond to any threat with a counter-threat."

He DOES have a choice! His own intelligence says Iran "is not moving towards a nuclear weapon."

Iran has prepared missiles and equipment for strikes on U.S. bases in the Middle East if the U.S. joins the Israeli campaign, according to a senior U.S. intelligence official and a Pentagon official briefed on the matter.

THERE is the rub! Is this "yellow cake" Parte Deux? If Trump hits Fordo unnecessarily and American troops are killed in retailiatory strikes, Mr. No More Foreign Wars will have yellow cake on his face and blood on his hands.

8:32 pm:

Yesterday, in Financial Times,

Today, Iran... is, by most estimates, weeks away from having enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon.

FT


Trump seconded that opinion:

“I think they were a few weeks away from having one,” he said Wednesday, seemingly referring to the period before Israel first struck Iran’s nuclear program last week.

Israel attacked last Friday, June 12. That takes care of one week.

Yet today, Trump said he was giving himself a breather. 

“I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.” 

That's three weeks. Three is "a few". If he takes the full two weeks D-Day is July 3. 

You don't have to be Gauss to guess that that's cuttin' it pertty close.