They rid themselves of ๐ฉ and his $90M contract albatross. ๐
They are bringing back 26-year old Davion Mitchell๐๐ฅณ๐คฉ They signed Davion to a chump-change 2-year $24M k.
What about Terry Rozier (31 yrs old)? Trade or keep him, it makes no difference to management.
Wiggo (30)? The "Heat" "will listen" to trade offers but are also totally fine with keeping him.
Make another run at new free agent, lamed, 34-year old Dame? Maybe, maybe not. The "Heat" aren't sweating it.
How about 22-year old rising star, out-of-rotation Jonathan Kuminga?! Miami "hasn't totally ruled out" Kuminga but are "not aggressively pursuing" him, either.
There's no urgency, you see, everything is fine.
Oh, if a falling star in his prime drops onto the roof of 601 Biscayne they'll probably take him in, but other than that, they're standing pat.
They are the "...10th or 11th most talented team in the" Least and "there's nothing currently available that likely would drastically alter the team’s 2025-26 outlook." Next season, you see, like the past eleven, is pretty much set. Tenth or eleventh is totally good enough for them. A reversion to mean, 44-38, and start the parade down Biscayne!
All of the above is a "reasonable" plan, "probably the most realistic remaining path", to Barry Jackson, Miami Herald.*
Not reasonable to me, and not to a sizable segment of Heaties.
The second part of Jackson's quiescent sizing up is important too: "the most realistic remaining path". They had no choice in this path. They didn't understand (few if any did) the new CBA. So they made their big "off season" move in the winter of 2023/24 by trading a first round pick for Rozier. That put the org. right up against the salary cap, removed a draft pick, and restricted the "realistic remaining path" out of Middlesbrough. They thought also that they would grow into Duncan Robinson's contract, that with an ever-increasing salary cap $18M/year would become reasonable for one of his talents. But the salary cap rose less than expected and Donut rose less than an expected as a player. # They couldn't trade him for anything of value.
Which leads to the last: the "Heat" overvalue their personnel. Josh Richardson. Most egregiously Justise Winslow. Donut regressed every year after his big contract. Jackson's article quotes "Heat" personnel as saying that players don't reach their prime for 5-6 years. But players make their biggest jump in quality between years one and two. Prime is only important if it is quality prime. Jaime Jaquez, Jr. regressed in his second year. Portland didn't want Tyler Herro. The "Heat" say they never considered trading Tyler or Bam. That's because they overvalue them.
Keeping picks is wise if they're high lottery picks, single digits. Those in the teens and 20's rarely are the basis of a champion. This is the list of All-NBA players selected 10th or later in the draft since the "Heat" began this decade-plus of 44-38:
- Nikola Jokic, 41st, 2014
From 2014 to present these are the "Heat's" first round picks with selection position:
- 2014 P.J. Hairston, 26th (traded to Charlotte)
- 2015 Justise Winslow, 10th. Later traded to Memphis. Now with the "Wisconsin" "Herd".
- 2017 Bam Adebayo, 14th.
- 2019 Tyler Herro, 13th.
- 2020 Precious Achiuwa, 20th. Later traded to Toronto.
- 2022 Nikola Jovic, 27th.
- 2023 Jaime Jaquez, Jr., 18th.
- 2024 Kel'el Ware, 15th.
- 2025 Kasparas Jakucionis, 20th.
The "Heat" are my team. I will always be a fan barring an excess amount of stupid. I'll probably continue to follow them closely this season, at least until they flame out. But I won't be buying a ticket to see them in person until I see a Great Leap from 44-38, and I don't think that's in the cards.
The hockey "Panthers" are everything the "Heat" were and still delude themselves they can be again with this "plan." The fan base disagrees, and I am with them. What is reasonable to the geriatric, arteriosclerotic, dotards in charge is viewed by a substantial segment, which includes me, as insulting. But "Heat" games for 37 years have been the social events from late fall to early spring for the wealthy, arrive-late, leave-early season ticket holders. That, I don't think, will change. The "Heat" market is, in economic terms, "inelastic." Like management.
*I believe that Jackson is accurate in his piece, but he is a somewhat controversial figure on the Miami sports scape. Infamously, he assured readers again and again that Damian Lillard would end up in Miami and trashed other sports journalists who were more cautious (like everybody on ESPN) as clickbaiters. The "Heat" may have used Jackson as a plant. All to say, what Jackson writes here may not be wholly accurate, but as I said at the outset of this footnote, I believe that it is.
# When Donut signed his 5 year $18M per contract in 2021 his salary was 16% of the max. salary cap per team. In 2022 the salary was 13.6% of that years cap; in 2023, 12.4% of max; 2024, 13.7%.. That's a reasonable ratio, but only a bargain if player production increased. Donut's production did not. After signing his 5/yr $90M contract in 2021 Donuts ppg dropped precipitously from 13.1 ppg in 2020 to 10.9 in the first year of his new multi-year contract; in 2022, it dropped even more drastically to 6.4 ppg; 2023 12.9 ppg, his final year, this season, another regression to 11 ppg when his salary was $19.4M. We were getting less for more, and he with his production and salary were unattractive except to one team (Detroit) as salary filler under the arcane rules of the CBA. The "Heat" got nothing significant back for him.
