bad, surprising (to me) for the democrats. two post-gop convention polls have bush up DOUBLE DIGITS. kerry got NO bounce out of the demos convention. i, and most of the cognescenti, chalked that up to the unusual extent to which voters had made up their minds this year. polarized electorate, etc. not so apparently.

heard on npr that every candidate who has led in the polls on labor day went on to win in november. but no candidate who had been the leading money-raiser in the year preceeding an election had ever lost his party's nomination. until howard dean this year. so this is not a "normal" year.

still, big meeting coming up in the kerry campaign supposedly leading to a "reorganization." after iowa kerry fired his campaign head and bought in bob shrum. although long a top strategist, shrum had never won the "big one," i think the nomination, not the presidency. so shrum maybe out.

-benjamin harris