"The Perot Prelude" has gotten four times the reads that a post 24-hours old usually gets so when I got up this morning I googled "perot trump" and indeed, I had not missed much in my reading. There is, from memory, a March Politico article that draws the parallels to Trump's campaign-and which goes on to say that the political media have "missed" this link. Maybe because Perot created a third party for his run, the Reform Party...which Donald Trump was a registered voter in...rather than take over one of the two established parties as Trump has done.
Well, that does not seem of great moment to me. What was Perot to do in 1992, run against a sitting Republican president in the Republican primaries? That seems the path of greatest resistance and Pat Buchanan already had trod that difficult path, a snowy path in New Hampshire it was, where Pat's 37% nearly knocked the splash out of Poppy's coffee.
I don't remember much about Jerry Brown's run that year in God's Party, only his constant fundraising appeals to "call that 800 number" every time he gave an interview. Jerry still had moonbeams floating around in his head so it don't matter, I'll take Wikipedia's word for it that his candidacy too was "populist." Brown had zero impact on anything in '92.
Which is to say that Perot '92 and the Reform Party were all about Perot, just as Trump '16 and the Republican Party are all about Trump. They make similar appeal to the same old racist, nativist pale skin constituency and have startlingly similar resumes and mental defects. Perot peaked in the polls in July at 39% nationwide. Trump's current RCP average is 40.9%. Now that will rise! I expect Trump to leave the Pawn Shop with a lead over Hillary Clinton. Perot, of course, got no such convention bounce in '92 on accounta there was no convention! There was no Reform Party yet. And Perot didn't get a bounce from dropping out (lol Perot). But Perot was also smoking the field in the Summer of '92. In a race among three "serious" candidates Ol' Jug Ears led HW by 8% and Bill Clinton by 14%! In 2016's two-person race Trump's 40.9% is good for the silver medal by about 5%. I fully expect (with Trump it was only "expect") Hillary Clinton to regain, and hold for the duration, her lead after the Democratic Convention July 25-28. And then it will be the guns of August. And all guns will be trained on Herr Trump.
Thus imagine my surprise at reading "The Coming Political Realignment" by David Brooks about a week ago. Trump has made a "revolution."...Oh, just take me out and shoot me...Democracy in America will never be the same...No, give me your gun and I'll shoot him (just kidding!)...The old left-right, big government-small government cleave is so 20th c. Get with the times. Or the Times. In fact, it's not just in the colonies, it's worldwide, the new in-out cleave. Brexit! Austrian rightists! Italian rightists! (I thought left-right was old hat but Dave is a great synthesizer.). All nationalist (Are there non-nationalist rightists? Where?), all anti-immigration (same question).
Now, forget that the Republican Party has been in continuous existence for 150 years. That's old news, that was ante-Trump, ante-"revolution." Forget that Trump was a Reform Party member for three of those 150 years (and a recent, not a remote, three) and a Democrat for twenty-seven (including 2001-09). Forget that the Reform Party ceased as a functional vehicle for travel on the path to the presidency apres Perot. Forget that a not insignificant number of Bull Elephants are waiting for the storm to pass, even if that is four or eight years! to reclaim "their" party. And, forget Groundhog Day and that halcyon Summer of '92.
Dave does forget, or he doesn't mention Perot anyway. Dave's "revolution" is all about the 21st century. About the "trend" worldwide, because it's a small world and we're all interconnected and the trend is toward disconnectedness and borders and walls and swarthy others from whom we want to disconnect.
That's his argument. Okay, fine. Is that the lesson of Brexit? Most would say, Dave says, Trump says, "Yes!" That was the lesson most took from Brexit the day after Brexit. "See? Trump was right! Borders! Walls! Sea walls! Chunnel walls! Pak go home!" That's the trend, catch the wave or drown. And then, hoo-doggie, buyer's remorse. Frigging Oh!-Just-take-me-out-and-shoot-me buyer's remorse. The decapitation of three of the UK's political parties, the break up of the UK itself?, currency devaluation, stock market plunge, turmoil, chaos, primordial Chaos. Get your stumpy little finger off that Article 50 button! Trump's seperated-at-birth New Yawk twin Boris Johnson? Pariah. Within two days the lesson of Brexit did a 180, from "See! Trump was right," to a "See! That's what you'll get with Trump" television ad.
Now, Britain will exit the European Union, somebody eventually will push the Article 50 button, but the lessons of Brexit for American politics-The lessons are murky, is what they are-, what the lesson of Brexit for America is not is Dave's realignment revolution. Hell, there's not going to be a realignment of the parties in the UK! The left-right cleave is still there in British politics HOO-DOGGIE! even as Brexiteers came from both sides, but mainly the Conservatives, just as Perot's and Trump's support came, or comes, from both American parties but overwhelmingly from racist, nativist, uneducated pale faces whatever political wigwam they slither back to at night, I say, there is no Bull Moose party in Britain to supplant Labour or the Tories, the next PM will be a Conservative woman and they'll have an election someday and the new PM will be either the Tory or the Labour leader not the Bull Moose or Reform or Liberal Democrats leader. Brexit won with 52% of the votes of all the King's men (and women). Donald Trump has got 40.9% in the polls now and he ain't gonna win!
There is not going to be party realignment in America as a result of Donald Trump; the UK Independence Party leader did not survive his Brexit moment, his and his movement's raison d'être died at the moment of glorious victory; and Donald Trump's moment, whether that be four months or even four years (Not eight years, though. If he got elected and then re-elected, he will have realigned the parties, I concede.) will pass and the two parties will pick up the pieces afterward. Trump's moment is, like Ross Perot's, one man's moment. It is not even the one-issue political movement of UKIP; it is not the comprehensive hard right ideological movement of Le Pen's National Front. Trump's is a moment, a one-man "movement," which, like Perot's, will die politically with the man's political death and which will be soon, four months hence. And this time we shall drive a stake through the heart to make sure.
Well, that does not seem of great moment to me. What was Perot to do in 1992, run against a sitting Republican president in the Republican primaries? That seems the path of greatest resistance and Pat Buchanan already had trod that difficult path, a snowy path in New Hampshire it was, where Pat's 37% nearly knocked the splash out of Poppy's coffee.
I don't remember much about Jerry Brown's run that year in God's Party, only his constant fundraising appeals to "call that 800 number" every time he gave an interview. Jerry still had moonbeams floating around in his head so it don't matter, I'll take Wikipedia's word for it that his candidacy too was "populist." Brown had zero impact on anything in '92.
Which is to say that Perot '92 and the Reform Party were all about Perot, just as Trump '16 and the Republican Party are all about Trump. They make similar appeal to the same old racist, nativist pale skin constituency and have startlingly similar resumes and mental defects. Perot peaked in the polls in July at 39% nationwide. Trump's current RCP average is 40.9%. Now that will rise! I expect Trump to leave the Pawn Shop with a lead over Hillary Clinton. Perot, of course, got no such convention bounce in '92 on accounta there was no convention! There was no Reform Party yet. And Perot didn't get a bounce from dropping out (lol Perot). But Perot was also smoking the field in the Summer of '92. In a race among three "serious" candidates Ol' Jug Ears led HW by 8% and Bill Clinton by 14%! In 2016's two-person race Trump's 40.9% is good for the silver medal by about 5%. I fully expect (with Trump it was only "expect") Hillary Clinton to regain, and hold for the duration, her lead after the Democratic Convention July 25-28. And then it will be the guns of August. And all guns will be trained on Herr Trump.
Thus imagine my surprise at reading "The Coming Political Realignment" by David Brooks about a week ago. Trump has made a "revolution."...Oh, just take me out and shoot me...Democracy in America will never be the same...No, give me your gun and I'll shoot him (just kidding!)...The old left-right, big government-small government cleave is so 20th c. Get with the times. Or the Times. In fact, it's not just in the colonies, it's worldwide, the new in-out cleave. Brexit! Austrian rightists! Italian rightists! (I thought left-right was old hat but Dave is a great synthesizer.). All nationalist (Are there non-nationalist rightists? Where?), all anti-immigration (same question).
Now, forget that the Republican Party has been in continuous existence for 150 years. That's old news, that was ante-Trump, ante-"revolution." Forget that Trump was a Reform Party member for three of those 150 years (and a recent, not a remote, three) and a Democrat for twenty-seven (including 2001-09). Forget that the Reform Party ceased as a functional vehicle for travel on the path to the presidency apres Perot. Forget that a not insignificant number of Bull Elephants are waiting for the storm to pass, even if that is four or eight years! to reclaim "their" party. And, forget Groundhog Day and that halcyon Summer of '92.
Dave does forget, or he doesn't mention Perot anyway. Dave's "revolution" is all about the 21st century. About the "trend" worldwide, because it's a small world and we're all interconnected and the trend is toward disconnectedness and borders and walls and swarthy others from whom we want to disconnect.
That's his argument. Okay, fine. Is that the lesson of Brexit? Most would say, Dave says, Trump says, "Yes!" That was the lesson most took from Brexit the day after Brexit. "See? Trump was right! Borders! Walls! Sea walls! Chunnel walls! Pak go home!" That's the trend, catch the wave or drown. And then, hoo-doggie, buyer's remorse. Frigging Oh!-Just-take-me-out-and-shoot-me buyer's remorse. The decapitation of three of the UK's political parties, the break up of the UK itself?, currency devaluation, stock market plunge, turmoil, chaos, primordial Chaos. Get your stumpy little finger off that Article 50 button! Trump's seperated-at-birth New Yawk twin Boris Johnson? Pariah. Within two days the lesson of Brexit did a 180, from "See! Trump was right," to a "See! That's what you'll get with Trump" television ad.
Now, Britain will exit the European Union, somebody eventually will push the Article 50 button, but the lessons of Brexit for American politics-The lessons are murky, is what they are-, what the lesson of Brexit for America is not is Dave's realignment revolution. Hell, there's not going to be a realignment of the parties in the UK! The left-right cleave is still there in British politics HOO-DOGGIE! even as Brexiteers came from both sides, but mainly the Conservatives, just as Perot's and Trump's support came, or comes, from both American parties but overwhelmingly from racist, nativist, uneducated pale faces whatever political wigwam they slither back to at night, I say, there is no Bull Moose party in Britain to supplant Labour or the Tories, the next PM will be a Conservative woman and they'll have an election someday and the new PM will be either the Tory or the Labour leader not the Bull Moose or Reform or Liberal Democrats leader. Brexit won with 52% of the votes of all the King's men (and women). Donald Trump has got 40.9% in the polls now and he ain't gonna win!
There is not going to be party realignment in America as a result of Donald Trump; the UK Independence Party leader did not survive his Brexit moment, his and his movement's raison d'être died at the moment of glorious victory; and Donald Trump's moment, whether that be four months or even four years (Not eight years, though. If he got elected and then re-elected, he will have realigned the parties, I concede.) will pass and the two parties will pick up the pieces afterward. Trump's moment is, like Ross Perot's, one man's moment. It is not even the one-issue political movement of UKIP; it is not the comprehensive hard right ideological movement of Le Pen's National Front. Trump's is a moment, a one-man "movement," which, like Perot's, will die politically with the man's political death and which will be soon, four months hence. And this time we shall drive a stake through the heart to make sure.