Okay, we’re going to talk about this because other people are. The "Heat" go on an eight-game road trip starting Saturday. They are flying with the ominous baggage of 8-7 in their last fifteen games. After Tuesday's loss I wrote,
“Something has happened. Or something that was happening isn't happening.”
And I jokingly blamed the Friday Night Massacre on Dion Waiters’ return (and on myself for following the game).
Today there was this in Ira Winderman’s mailbag column:
Q: One of your readers to "Ask Ira" suggested that Dion Waiters hurts team chemistry when he comes to the game. I think I, too, have noticed that, not only with Waiters but also with James Johnson. -- Roland, Portland.
A: The problem with James Johnson taking so long to come around with his conditioning, and with Dion Waiters taking so long to come around with his attitude, is that these on-court issues could have been sorted through earlier in the season, to see what combinations do and do not work, what alignments do and do not work, when it comes to each. Now, getting closer to the stretch run of the playoff race, the Heat still are trying to figure out roles for each. That is where each let their teammates down.
When I read that I immediately thought that the something that had happened to the "Heat" was the reintegration of these two. Doesn't this fifteen game walk down Middlesbrough overlay precisely JJ's return? (Not quite, see below.) Ira does not go there directly. The only comment he makes on team “chemistry” is that in their suspensions and benching JJ and Dion “let their teammates down,” that’s past tense, creating roster utilization issues in the present. That does not directly address the reader’s observation that whenever either JJ or Dion checks into a game now their presence “hurts team chemistry." (Although in a prior column Ira wrote that JJ had been a supportive and enthusiastic teammate on the bench when he was being held out. And JJ has issued more than one sincere, deeply felt apologies.)
God knows Dion hurt team chemistry earlier this season: In the final preseason game he bitched about Erik Spoelstra on the bench, took a shot at him in social media and lol’d Tyler Herro as his replacement. According to the cognoscenti management was so worried about Dion's effect on team chemistry that they seriously contemplated paying him to stay home.
Last season Hassan Whiteside was benched, fined, and ultimately traded for bitching about playing time. JJ and Hassan were tight.
Then there was the THC gummy bears incident on the plane before the “Lakers” game in LA. Ethan Skolnick of 5ReasonsSports wrote after that game that he had never seen this “Heat” team perform as distractedly as it did that night.
And JJ has been joined with Dion in the gummy bears incident. The rumor mill long had it that JJ had supplied Dion with the gummy bears.
And Dion refused to hand up his source to team officials.
And JJ was seen seemingly obviously high in a social media video.
And Dion was pictured on social media partying when he missed a game and told the team he was ill.
That's a lot of ands.
So, this here undersigned went a little further and looked at the game logs for the Suspension Twins. I had not remembered that JJ played in six games in November, almost every game it looks like, although there is a gap between November 8 and 22. He played 15' in the "Lakers" gummy bears game and then only 2' and 8' before he was banished until January 5. He missed the last week of November, all of December and the first few days in 2020. Anyway. If Ira Winderman does not know or is not willing to write about on court chemistry I certainly don't know. Hell, I don't even watch the games. All I can say is that in the seventeen games in which James Johnson has played this season the "Heat" are a Middlesbrough 9-8; that since being reintegrated on January 5 the "Heat" are 6-5.
Dion has only played in three games this season, the last three, all at home, two of which were losses. Those are also the only games in which both he and JJ played, so, for the record, Miami is 1-2 in games where both James Johnson and Dion Waiters played.
The only meaningful sample size here is obviously JJ's. The gross numbers don't directly address his effect, if any, on team chemistry; they do not provide cause and effect for the "Heat" downturn; in fact, I believe in my gut that this is statistical aberration, not cause and effect. However, the gross numbers are stark and they are damning: 9-8 in all seventeen games he has played, a .529 win percentage, 6-5 (.545) in 2020,--compared to 23-7, .766, when he has not played. .766 to .529. Wow. Yet, I have not read one thing that James Johnson has hurt the team in games. To the contrary, he has put up some solid numbers and made some key plays that have contributed to wins. The won-lost numbers, though, for what they are worth, are what they are.
I looked at Justise Winslow's game log for comparison. The sample size is only ten games, the "Heat" went 6-4, .600, and they are 26-11, .702, when he has not played. That's a difference, but not nearly as great, and with only ten games, and everybody thinks the team really needs Justise right now.
I was very much intrigued by the reader's observation to Ira Winderman. "Something" has happened with this team over the last fifteen games. Suddenly, they have become as unpredictable as the last three years' teams were: inconsistent effort on defense, benchings, changes to the rotation, inconsistent shooting, losing at home, losing to inferior teams. I can't figure it out but the two somethings that those Middlesbrough "Heat" teams had that this early high-flying team did not are James Johnson and Dion Waiters. And those James Johnson before-after won-lost records bother me.
