1,021:Reported day’s Deaths, so far, Aug. 15, at post time, the fifth straight day (following the reporting pattern) of 1,000+. The undersigned expects Sunday’s daily total and Monday’s to be about half that. If that prediction is accurate we should hit 170,000 tomorrow, Sunday, when I will have a “special” post naming names, as I promised, of alleged experts, like Dr Deborah Birx-Mengele, who have done particular public disservice by their quackery. That special post is drafted and ready to hit “publish” when the number mentioned is reached.
169,467: Cumulative Death toll since Feb. 6. I promised though:
169,467: Cumulative Death toll since Feb. 6. I promised though:
That was two days ago. I read the article, the calculation is based on CDC data of “excess deaths,” which is an accepted methodology to determine the “real” number. There is unanimous conviction that going with only the precise number of “confirmed” Deaths, as Johns Hopkins does, produces a falsely precise undercount. Publocc goes with Hopkins as the precise undercount gold standard.
Lastly the seven-day average is an excellent tool to even out the reporting anomalies and so through Aug. 14:
Plateauville.
The Deaths seven-day average though ticked down the last line increment, making it look more like one of rhose earlier anomalous peaks. Per above, I expect that line to continue to drop over Sunday and Monday, and it may continue to drop even when the Tuesday-Saturday reporting comes in. The huge lump of Cases in mid-July is being digested and we are now on the beginning of that bulge’s downslope. If this reading is more or less correct, and God knows it may not be! then we would expect the Deaths average line to continue to drop, in squiggles, the reporting anomalies will squiggle it up some days but we should be on a clear downward trend for the next two weeks or so. Having said all of that I will of course be proved to be an Idiot Blogger once agayne. Naming names.