Once unthinkable, Democrats now see narrow
path to keeping the House
While Democrats acknowledge they still face major hurdles, there has been an unmistakable mood shift, according to interviews with candidates, strategists and officials
Democrats are voicing growing confidence about limiting losses in the House and potentially even salvaging their majority in the midterm elections, with candidates and allied groups making moves to capitalize on a backlash to abortion restrictions, signs of improvements in the economy and opposition to Donald Trump.After months of gloomy predictions, Democrats are investing anew in flipping Republican seats. They are also directing more money to protect a roster of their own endangered incumbents — a list party officials said noticeably shrank since the spring. And they are trying to frame contests around abortion rights, putting Republicans on the defensive for strict opposition to the procedure in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade.
Democratic fundraisers have reported an uptick in donations over the last month, and at least one of the party’s biggest donors is considering pouring more money into House races, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is privately voicing more confidence about the House landscape and opportunities to go on offense, people familiar with the conversations said, while President Biden’s White House has grown more optimistic in its outlook. One Biden adviser reacted with umbrage at a private meeting with reporters this month to the suggestion that Republicans were likely to win back control of Congress.
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“I definitely feel a different energy than even three months ago, but certainly six months ago,” said Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) one of the year’s most vulnerable incumbents. Seeing a “narrow” path to keeping the majority, Slotkin added: “Six months ago I think people were putting safe bets on a real blowout. And I don’t see that happening.”
One House Democratic strategist, who like others interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly, was blunter in assessing what it would take to win the 218 seats required to control the House, in a chamber of 435 members. “The range has shifted. The world we were living in before, if we ended up in the 200s that was pretty good,” said the strategist. “Now it is much more that the majority is in play. We have a path. It is there.”
Democrats are defending only a five-seat majority in the House, putting Republicans well within reach of winning back control. Nonpartisan analysts still regard the GOP as the favorites and history shows the president’s party does not tend to do well in a first midterm. Republican strategists pointed to continued opportunities to make gains where Democrats are on defense...
That is true. Cook's latest, adding up R Solids, Likely's and Leans has a R majority of 214, four shy of majority. D Solids, Likely's and Leans total only 188. To keep the House D's would have to win 30 of 33 Tossup races, which is close to the definition of impossible. Now, if they can flip one or two of the R Leans then the number of tossups they have to win goes down one or two. So still exceedingly unlikely.
“Every great team experiences some adversity,” Rep. Tom Emmer (Minn.), the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, wrote in a memo after a special election loss this past week in New York’s 19th Congressional District. Trying to calm Republican nerves, much as Democrats had been doing last year...
Yet several Republican strategists have expressed concern about winning the House with only single-digit margins, which would make it harder for Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to easily ascend to speaker and could complicate the party’s ability to rally for even routine partisan votes. Those same strategists had hoped earlier this year to win a margin of 20 or more on the backs of a soured national mood and rising inflation.
In the battle for the Senate, Democrats started seeing signs of encouragement earlier this summer, due to unsteady Republican candidates and other factors that are also starting to show up in House races, party strategists said. Abortion has been a major driver of the improved Democratic outlook, they noted, with the Supreme Court decision in June to strike down the constitutional right to abortion as a key inflection point that angered many voters.
But the weak R candidates in the Senate and what D's claim they are seeing in the House too, "weak R candidates" is euphemism for Trump-endorsed candidates. If by some near-miracle D's pull this off and retain control of both legislative chambers I am prepared to say Trump is finished as the hidden mailed fist behind R's. D retention of both chambers would be a cataclysm for Trump's influence and you'd see disgusted R's begin to cut lose. I believe that, beyond probably to clear and convincing. It is very, very unlikely but there is a narrow path but a path, and that D's have not had previously.
In four special elections for House seats since that decision — including in New York’s 19th District, where the party’s candidate centered his campaign on abortion — Democrats outperformed Biden’s 2020 showing. The resounding defeat of an antiabortion ballot measure in conservative Kansas was more evidence of the galvanizing effect of the court’s decision...Democrats in recent days have launched ads in several battleground House races attacking Republicans for embracing strict antiabortion stances. ...
Beyond abortion, Democratic strategists said they have found the reduction of gas prices and the slowing of inflation as helpful to their chances. Democratic strategists said they have come to feel, for the moment, that they can fight Republicans to something of a draw on the economy...
Party leaders have sought to channel these developments — along with recent legislative accomplishments on health-care and climate change as well as the high-profile House committee hearings about the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob — into a simple argument they are putting before voters: Republicans are extreme and Democrats have delivered.
The word you are looking for is FASCIST, or at least SEMI-FASCIST. No one likes to be called a fascist and it puts Republicans on the defensive. The label has the virtue of being true and it has stuck. Republicans have seen fit to defend themselves, "We are not fascists." Like Nixon, "I am not a crook," you want Republicans mentioning the word fascist even to deny it.
House Majority PAC, an outside group charged with helping Democrats hold on to the chamber, is investing in three GOP-held seats, according to data from the commercial tracking company AdImpact. The new buys are intended to boost Democratic challengers in California’s 22nd Congressional District, Ohio’s 1st Congressional District and New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District. All are Republican-held seats where Biden won in 2020.
The House Democratic strategist who said the majority was in play said the shifts in the national mood had not yet resulted in expanding the Democratic battlefield. But they had reduced concern about some safer incumbents who appeared vulnerable at the beginning of the summer, allowing for more resources to be devoted to borderline seats.
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“With 80 days to go, we like very much the way this is going,” said Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), chair of the DCCC, in an interview.
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Following a string of Democratic retirements and the decennial redistricting process, Republicans were left with an open path to the majority, which GOP officials said still exists — even if it doesn’t extend as deeply into Democratic turf as many hoped. The NRCC recently circulated a list of 74 seats they’ve targeted, including nine pickup opportunities in districts that Trump won by more than five points. Democrats are also eying several pickup opportunities in districts Biden won comfortably.
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In an encouraging sign for Cartwright and other Democrats, Biden’s job approval ratings, while still negative, have shown signs of improvement. A recent Gallup poll showed it ticking up six points from July to August, rising from 38 percent to 44 percent, boosted by gains among independents.
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At the White House and in Biden’s inner circle, top aides have become more bullish about the House. “Look, the generic data on the House side is in our favor right now,” a Biden adviser said at an Aug. 11 meeting with reporters. “I can tell you, this thing is very competitive across the country. You guys have not caught up to this yet.”
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“There is a big difference between having a zero chance of success and a 30 percent chance of success,” said Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic lobbyist who previously worked in House leadership staff. “And if we do the right things over the next month, and go out and sell the accomplishments of the last year, we could have a 50 percent chance. Certainly everything is moving in the right direction, and there is room for it to move more.”