I been thinkin' 'bout this:
Thursday, September 22, 2022
“Russia has chosen its path. There is no way back.”
Dmitry Medvedev [once part of the Putin-Medvedev "tandemocracy"] , deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, wrote Thursday in a post on Telegram that territory in eastern Ukraine would be “accepted into Russia” after the completion of staged “referendums” [on Friday] and vowed to strengthen the security of those areas.
To defend that annexed land, Medvedev said, Russia is able to use not only its newly mobilized forces, but also “any Russian weapon, including strategic nuclear ones [Nukes, if used in Ukraine would be termed "tactical"] and those using new principles,” a reference to hypersonic weapons [for which the U.S. has no defense].
“Russia has chosen its path,” Medvedev added. “There is no way back.”
Putin's most recent statements about nukes are thereby clarified by Medvedev to threaten a hypersonic nuclear attack on the United States. But maybe Putin's bluffing? Yeah, right?
Truthfully I didn't doubt the sincerity until I read some American general say he wasn't "worried." It does read a little blustery. Putin himself has issued these threats several times so it is not new. It is true that Putin's doctrine calls for use of his entire arsenal if the "motherland" is threatened and Putin doctrine is territory seized becomes the motherland. Could be that our guy is falling into the "cry wolf" dilemma but lordy the real motherland has been struck repeatedly by Ukraine and Putin hasn't used nukes on Ukraine much less any NATO country including the U.S.
If it's a bluff, what's Putin's real game? Nobody, least of all Putin, expected Ukraine still to be fighting--and winning!--seven months in. I am really surprised he has let it get this far without using the ultimate weapon. Russia and Putin personally have been humiliated. The Russian army is a laughing stock, incompetent, and has been all but destroyed. Any fantasy of a "Greater Russia" beyond Ukraine is impossible with this army.
There were protests at the beginning in February. Fine, Putin just arrested everybody. Maybe the 300,000 men he has drafted will turn the tide but when the announcement was made there were humorous and ominous (for Putin) reports of a mad dash for the airports by Russian civilians. Now today a report that men particularly are getting out of Dodge. George Conway tweeted brief footage of a riot between draft-age men and Russian police forcing them onto buses. There's real unrest.
In the beginning you could argue with a degree of plausibility that Putin was being misinformed at how badly things were going. Not now. Palace coup? Be a good time for it: Putin is out of the country for two weeks. I haven't read anybody predicting that. I don't know and have no brilliant outsider ideas what Putin's game is, but it wasn't this.