Boston 7 zip

 Reiter's pick: Celtics in 7.

… Jayson Tatum is the series' best player, the Celtics are too deep and too talented, and they beat a worthy but lesser foe.

Botkin's pick: Celtics in 6. From a matchup standpoint, Boston's double bigs intrigues me the most in this series. With Robert Williams roaming around, Jimmy Butler may find life more difficult in the paint, and I think Miami's 3-point shooting looks more like it did in the regular season against all of Boston's length and versatility on the perimeter. I don't know who the best player in this series is, Butler or Tatum, but after that it's the Cetlics who are clearly more talented. Maybe I'm just a talent snob and am too easily dismissing Heat Culture and Eric Spoelstra's coaching, but I think Boston wins this series relatively convincingly.  

Kaskey-Blomain's pick: Celtics in 6. The Heat have had an impressive run this postseason, but it ends here against a more talented Celtics team. The Celtics bested the Heat in the Eastern Conference finals last season, and the outcome will be the same this time around. Boston has a deeper roster, and they match up well with Miami. Jimmy Butler will likely lead the Heat to a victory, or two in the series, but they don't have enough firepower to make it to the Finals. 

Wimbish's pick: Celtics in 6. 

… they don't really match up well against the Celtics...

 

 

Those are all reasoned, reasonable, informed predictions. They may prove to be wrong but that is all you can ask of predictions. I was particularly impressed by the emphasis on the match up mismatch component of three of CBS' analysts' predictions. ESPN's experts also were reasoned, reasonable and informed and it is not to prefer the unreasoned, unreasonable and uninformed to recall that ESPN's 'xperts picked Beer to beat the "Heat" 17-0 and picked the "Knicks" to win 12-5. Those predictions were still reasoned, reasonable and informed. They were just wrong, as reasoning, reasonable, informed humans sometimes are.

I predicted the "Heat" last night. My prediction was not nearly as reasoned, reasonable and informed as CBS' cognos. The predictions of an ultra-fan should be discounted. Passion clouds judgment, not sharpens it. Following only one team ultra-closely can give one an non-analytical feel, however. For instance, there was no doubt in my mind that the Florida "Panthers" were going to win game 3 against Toronto and I blogged my feelings: "Panthers" gonna wait until the last minute just to see the Blue Maple Leafs cry". Ooh, we're going to wait for OT! CRUEL! I ♥️ it. That's how certain I was. I punctuated my feelings by typing "Panthers'" goals small-case, "goal", i.e. expected, and with yawn emojis. I wrote that both the "Heat" and "Panthers" had "tilted" Beer and the "Bruins"; they implanted fear and doubt in their opponents' minds. 

There is some kind of weird, harmonic convergence thing going on in South Florida this spring. This feel has evidence backing it. The regulars in both the NBA and NHL are 82 games, a gantlet that is physically and emotionally torturous. Last season both the "Heat" and "Panthers" had the best records in their conferences (the "Panthers", best in the NHL) in the regular season. Neither matched expectations in the playoffs (the "Heat" nearly did). Both had faith-destroying regular seasons this season. Both barely made the playoffs. Is there not some cause-and-effect there? Maybe the lesson each intuitively took from the regular season last season was not to go at it so hard in this regular season? This playoff season each faced the favorite to win the league title in the first round. Now, how do you get a gentleman's sweep and a road G7 win from that evidence? You can't. You have to take recourse in the ineffable to get there.

"Feel", hate, feelings, are real but yet intuitive and squishy, not evidence-based. Here's real feel: "Maybe they just want it more."-Julius Randle.

The "Heat" are playing with hate. Maybe they conserved themselves physically and transferred that energy into the emotion of hate in the playoffs? There is no team that they hate more than the "Celtics, and the "Celtics" are the most tiltable team in the NBA. They are also Team Amnesia and can shake off victory and defeat as if it never happened. 

There is also a weird feel that "Celtics" players have for their dunderhead coach, Joe Mazzulla. The fact that JoeMaz is so bad makes the players feel good about him. They're protective of Mazzulla, defensive about criticism of him. That weird feel is real. That's BAD for the "Heat." Miami has got a big advantage in coaching in this series that is totally evidence-based. But it may not make a difference. The difference may come down to the "Celtics" undeniable talent advantage. I don't feel that it will, I can't argue the evidence, I just "feel the Heat down in my soul" are going to win the series.