If we assume the chalk the Ferocious Four will be 1) Georgia 2) m 3) W 4) Half Ass U.
But if we assumed the chalk yesterday afternoon W wouldn't be there and we'd have a debate. UGA is a 4.5 point pick over Bama at 4 pm. O was a 10 point favorite over W--more than double UGA's spread. If Alabama wins, as W did as a dog, who are the FF? The SEC is so concerned that in that eventuality the best conference in the land might get shut out that its commissioner and Nick Saban have both made statements to try to defuse the very idea. The concern is centered on Texas, who, by the way, are lambasting Okie State 42-14 as we speak. Texas beat Alabama convincingly in Tuscaloosa on Sept. 9. The CFP tie-breaker is head-to-head. That's why for each of the CFP's rankings through the weeks Texas has been ahead of Bama. It would make for some squeaky bums in the committee room if Alabama jumps Texas. It would lead to out-and-out-outrage, actually.
Further: If we assume that Bama beats UGA in a close game, what do you do with UGA. If the game ends up, say, 35-31 Bama, do you drop the two-time defending national champions and winners of twenty-nine straight all the way down to fifth? That seems an egregious penalty.
But, if in a close loss, the committee keeps UGA in, at say fourth, that would land the SEC TWO slots in the playoff, both going to one-loss teams, one a conference runner-up, keeping 12-1 Big XII champion Texas--who beat Alabama--out, and would knock an undefeated Power 5 conference champion (assuming they beat Louisville tonight) OUT of the playoff. There's outrage and then there's 13-0 ACC champion Florida State dropping while winning out.
These are the judgments of men and women, there is no formula that spits out the answer. We do have criteria, though: the best four teams (not most worthy), conference champion, strength of schedule. Head-to-head is a tiebreaker.
The case for Alabama is that with an upset of Georgia in the last game of the season and a conference championship they would have the best win of any team in the country and the "best" loss, to currently seventh, sure to be at least fifth, Texas three months ago.
The case for UGA would be four wins and one loss against five teams ranked in the top-20 at the time of play. The case against: not a conference champion, recency bias.
The case for Texas: 4-1 against top-25 opponents. The case against: that one L to Oklahoma, 12th at the time of play.
The case for Half Ass U: conference champion, undefeated, 3-0 against top-20 opponents when played, including a shellacking of then fifth LSU on a neutral field in the first game of the season.
There is one significant subset to the committee's plus ultra: the injury to Jordan Travis. Are the "Seminoles" without Travis really, indisputably, one of the four best teams in the country now?
In the event of this hypothetical, close Alabama win, I think the committee will stiff FSU and Texas in favor of:
1) m
2) Washington
3) Alabama
4) Georgia
Let the outrage begin.