I confess I elided over or didn't let the line on the PAC-12 championship game sink in. In Las Vegas:
Oregon (#5) -9.5 Washington (#3)
Shocking. I get that it's a rematch (W won 36-33 in Seattle Oct. 14). I get that W eked by Wazzu last weekend, also at home. To me, the added motivation and the squeaker don't explain such a heavy line. I even checked to see if W's QB Michael Penix, Jr. was a scratch. He's not.
I would like to let this percolate a day but I can't. The game is tonight at 8. I'm going to pass.
1.0
Highly unlikely I will be playing this Championship Weekend. A contracted slate of the highest profile games seldom yields an exploitable House distortion. Only one game is on my radar.
Looking hard at
Iowa vs Michigan-22. With the head Stalion back Iowa's only winning chance is a Michigan plane crash on the way to Indianapolis. But that line! That is literally closer to the over/under in Iowa games this year. Do you know what Iowa's first half over/under is? .5! Half a point! So the collective wisdom of investors is that the final score will be something like 22-0, 23-1 (one point safety) or 24-2. Even an Iowa field goal would do violence to the judgment that Iowa will only score zero or one point by halftime. It's just too weird, Iowa is just too weird for me to wrap my brain around this game.