If I were a betting man, and I am, I'd put $1,000 on it.
The polls are in a dead heat, which is an improvement for the president.
There was a segment on The New York Times' EXCELLENT The Daily radio podcast today. It was on "Trump's Plan to Take Away Biden's Biggest Advantage". I caught the tail end of it in the car and was darkly intrigued. "What could Biden's big advantage be?" "What is Trumpie's plan?" I then listened to the whole thing when I got home.
Biden's biggest advantage, besides a booming economy, champion of the toughest border control policy in 50 years (stymied by Trump), ending the COVID health crisis, defense of America and democracy at home and abroad, competence, integrity, intelligence, no, they're not talking about those things, they mean his biggest campaign advantage: a humming political machine that is miles ahead of Trumpie's which is characteristically a Great Shit Lake. This political machine, a combination of the president's campaign, the DNC, and the Democratic state orgs is seamlessly aligned, integrated like a Fortune 500 company flow chart, is raking in multiples of the money the Trump Crime Family "Enterprise" is, already has opened 34 offices in Wisconsin to Trumpie's zero or a non-zero single-digit number, has similar advantages in the other swing states, e.g. Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and is just getting started. Trumpie fired the opening salvo of the fall campaign on the electronic television machine, a $300,000 ad buy on "Black" media. Biden responded with a $30,000,000 ad buy. That's 100-1. And they're just getting started.
So what's Trumpie's plan? The Daily piece said he's "more confident than ever", more confident than he was in 2016, more confident than even in 2020 when he lost the vote both times. So Trumpie's plan, which he just got started on, is to take over the RNC, which he has just done, installing his daughter-in-law as vice-chair, making the RNC a wholly owned subsidiary of the Trump Crime Family “Enterprise” dedicated to the political fortunes of one candidate and one candidate alone, ignoring, totally ignoring, the down ballot candidates and state orgs whose responsibility it is to elect those unfortunates. Armed with Trumpie's supreme confidence, his famous political "instincts" which are "enhanced" in his assessment and his alone, and with a confidently held belief that Biden’s negatives on the top-enumerated issues are so insurmountable that it really doesn’t matter what Trumpie’s campaign does, he’s a shoe-in even if they do nothing, which they are doing worse than, Trumpie is making a "big bet" that he can make the Republican political machine as formidable as Trump University, Trump Steaks, Trump Atlantic City, Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad “Death Star” Pascale, Trump’s 2020 legal team, and so forth and rake in so much money that he may be able to meet his bond to appeal his civil judgment in New York which, with interest, approaches half a billion dollars, which “component” of the plan co-chair Lara recently “walked back” and said they would never use RNC funds for so craven a purpose, and WHATEVER IS LEFT OVER Trump and the Trump “Enterprise” will devote ENTIRELY to his campaign, and his alone, to regain office and kill the Republican Party and end Democracy in America or buy a one-way first-class, coach in a pinch, plane ticket to Moscow.
So I'm putting $1000 down that President Biden will beat the Manhattan street watch vendor and his "plan".