Saturday, June 01, 2024

Okay, I read the Reuters poll

Exclusive: One in 10 Republicans less likely to vote for Trump after guilty verdict, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds


That’s their headline.

The two-day poll, conducted in the hours after the Republican presidential candidate's conviction

Head-to-head, Biden 41% Trumpie 39%. Within margin of error (2%). “In line” with their April poll showing 40%-40%. So the needle didn’t move out of line immediately after Convict34.

Reuters own report leads with,

Ten percent of Republican registered voters say they are less likely to vote for Donald Trump following his felony conviction…

So that’s bad news for him.

The potential loss of a tenth of his party's voters is more significant for Trump than the stronger backing of more than a third of Republicans, since many of the latter would be likely to vote for him regardless of the conviction.

Among independent registered voters, 25% said Trump's conviction made them less likely to support him in November…

The verdict could shake up the race between Trump, who was U.S. president from 2017-2021, and Democratic President Joe Biden. U.S. presidential elections are typically decided by thin margins in a handful of competitive swing states, meaning that even small numbers of voters defecting from their candidates can have a big impact.

So, instant reaction: The instant polls show that Trumpie was hurt a little. Now to see if these have legs.