Saturday, August 31, 2024
Investors: 49.3% Tie
Bronze:
🕒 Last update: 1:00 p.m., Saturday, August 31: Another day of slight decline for Kamala Harris, and it’s the same culprits — the convention bounce adjustment, which you’re welcome to argue with but I defend in the new edition of SBSQ, and the polling in Pennsylvania, where we added two new polls showing Trump slightly ahead. Democrats shouldn’t worry so much about the Trafalgar poll; it counts as a Republican poll by our standards and the model accounts for its strong GOP house effect. But a Wick poll showing Harris down a point in the multiway matchup isn’t great for the vice president, especially considering it shows that she would have run much stronger with Josh Shapiro on the ticket.
Electoral College map per above per Bronze
I'll take that dos tomorrow.
Aggies (20) 6 The University of Our Lady of the Lake (7) 6, 11:14 3Q. THEY CAN'T PLAY!
THIS IS AS BORING AS FOLLOWING A "STEELERS"-IOWA GAME!
Aggies 6 The University of Our Lady of the Lake 6 HT
Is tackle football really the right sport for ladies?
This is the most painful, poignant, heart-breaking, loving tribute I have ever seen
"Thank you for the best years of my life. Despite losing you, I am still the luckiest girl in the world to have been yours. I love you so so much. You were perfect. Some days it felt too good to be true. I love every single thing about you. You are my forever and I can't wait to be with you again. I love you so much forever and ever. The absolute best dad in the world. So caring and loving. The best partner to go through parenthood with. John never missed a single appointment. Was the best at putting the baby to sleep and the Apple of Noa's eye. I love how much she looks like him. We are going to make you proud. We love you so so so much daddy."
Meredith Gaudreau, widow of Columbus Blue Jacket player Johnny Gaudreau, killed with his brother Thursday night while riding their bikes by a drunk driver.
I saw this much earlier today and couldn't post it. About made me cry. Oh, to be loved like that!
On the eve of the Christian sabbath, too. SAD!
Sinner coasts as opponent left 'a little bit clueless'
"Executive Head Coach" 🙄
Ron Roberts from Auburn. Roberts is a grizzled veteran in the business and was the defensive coordinator last season for the Tigers. His title at Florida is are 1) Inside Linebackers Coach along with being listed as 2) the Executive Head Coach/3) Co-Defensive Coordinator.
Napier was asked about the Executive Head Coach title during his press conference on Wednesday.
"There is a mentor-like relationship there and a ton of respect there (between Ron Roberts and Austin Armstrong) [the afore-self-mocked dough boy]…. (Roberts) has mentored a million defensive coaches in his career."
Napier would later go on to explain what the role of Armstrong and Roberts would be given what seems like two job titles that would clash against each other.
"Austin (Armstrong) calls the plays, but we are getting a guy who can coach the coaches… (Roberts) is the head coach of the defense to some degree."
...
This is going to continue to be a topic of conversation because 👉if Florida comes out against Miami and lays an egg on defense,👈🥚
or frankly lays an egg against anyone this season, questions will be asked as to who is calling the plays.
It's also possible Napier is ahead of the game and 👉sees a vision the rest of us don't.👈
The University of Our Lady of the Lake (7) 3 Aggies 3
I'm against men transitioning to women to play sports. UNFAIR advantage! But I guess it's okay if they play only other trans teams.
AP doesn't write shit like this unless it's real
...[the] fact his buyout is common knowledge points to how dysfunctional his tenure has been.
This year was supposed to be different. He layered nearly every aspect of the program, hiring a new defensive coordinator, a new special teams coordinator, a new strength and conditioning coach and a new nutritionist.
I don't even know what the fuck "layered" means in a football program. I sure as hell wouldn't have thought it meant hiring a "NEW nutritionist."
Little looked different to begin Year 3...
Among the most egregious miscues: Napier, who retained play-calling duties despite outside cries for him to give them up, dialed up runs on two third-and-5 plays. And his defense committed two roughing the passer penalties to extend first-half drives that led to touchdowns.
The takeaway
...
Florida: The Gators showed no progress on the defensive side of the ball despite spending significant capital to upgrade that side of the ball.
Interception returned 67 yards to Gators 28
What a nightmare for Florida fans. Just a fucking nightmare.
This is Billy Naps' DC but it could be Billy hisself coming in talking about having an army of staff and analysts for "modern football". Both of them, they're really the same guy, baffle you with bullshit because they can't dazzle you with brilliance. They're snake oil salesmen. That was my first impression of Billy Naps and it hasn't changed, it has been reinforced. Guys like these two, I don't even know this dough boy's name, if I interviewed either of them for a garbage collector job, he's be escorted out of the office in a strait jacket by security.
"We made a handful of explosives" in a HT interview will get you fired, too
Brandon Walker
@BFW
Reminder: Florida fired a coach who won 30 games in his first three years to hire Billy Napier.
5:18 PM · Aug 31, 2024
·
23.3K Views
HT FU 10 UMG (19) 24
The Gardeners are DOMINATING. 1st downs: 16-7, TOP: 19:18-10:42; Total yards: 283-145.
Is-Florida-Gators-a-good-school 10 No and Neither-is-Miami-Gardens 17, 2:38 2Q
71-yard run for that TD. That's impressive with those short, stubby legs.
Neb 16-7
Faux:
WORTH EVERY PENNY
(their freshman QB who originally to Ohio State, then Georgia, before signing with Neb.)
Nebraska 7 UTEP 7, 10:48 2Q
On 2nd and 7 at the UTEP the Neb. running back ran to the "Miners" 3 where he promptly fumbled into the end zone and recovered by UTEP.
The point of this is that the game cannot resume until 30' after the last lightning flash.
Rich Scarcella
@nittanyrich
The delay here is now 90 minutes old. And we just saw another lightning bolt. #PennState
3:34 PM · Aug 31, 2024
·
480 Views
So this means the game cannot restart until 4:04 at the earliest.
Pushing Buttons
“Donald Trump is surrendering to his advisors who won’t allow him to debate with a live microphone. If his own team doesn’t have confidence in him, the American people definitely can’t. We are running for President of the United States. Let’s debate in a transparent way — with the microphones on the whole time.”-Kamala on X.
“The memo sent by ABC is a draft set of rules that both campaigns need to sign off on and indicate agreement. We have not done so because we think both candidates have expressed a clear desire to have hot mics. Not clear why Trump staff is overruling their principal, who should be capable of making up his own mind.”-Harris spokesperson Brian Fallon wrote on X.
I LOVE it.
Pitt 42 Kent 24, 3:34 3Q
They've been in delay down Morgantown way since 2:04 ET. It's weird that this game, played "in a lonely field beyond Fort Pitt" is not delayed and that one is. Pittsburgh and Couch Burn are 90 miles apart as they swing from tree to tree and the storm cell causing the lightning is a little closer to us than is is to them.
Hammerheads 1 City 2, 53'
Erling with both our goals.
FT Wolverhampton Wanderers 1 Nottingham Forest Sheriffs 1
Tackle
Jawja (1) 6 It's Probation Time Again Y'all (14) 0, HT
Couch Burn 6 Paterno-Sandusky (8) 20, HT
The Powerful "Panthers" of Pittsburgh 28 THE Kent State "Golden Flashes" 14, HT
I believe Bleak House, yes, I am reading it again, to be Dickens' finest work, and chapter one to be the finest chapter in his finest work. I lost my original, tattered paperback a month or so ago and bought a new one. The new had the effect of a first reading, without the underlining and dog-eared pages of my original copy. I saw different things. Thought I saw other things that weren't there. For somehow, I restarted reading not with chapter one and got all the way up to page 155. I thought I had found a mistake on the master's part, a mention of Mr. Tulkinghorn before he had been introduced. I realize that seems conceited on my part but. Dickens wrote this and other of his books in serial fashion in periodicals. That mode gives the book a herky-jerky feel, as if he forgot what he wrote two or three weeks before. There is no doubt that the mode of serialization does give that disjointed feel to Bleak House, also to account for its 850-page length but I was wrong, as I discovered re-reading from the beginning, that he had made the glaring mistake with Tulkinghorn.
What I have noticed on this re-read are certain consistent themes woven in and out of the various chapters. Children are a prominent, often dominant, theme in many of Dickens' works. Children are not, I would say, the red-lights-blaring dominant theme of Bleak House, as they are in, e.g. David Copperfield or Oliver Twist. Children are colored a bit more subtly in Bleak House. There is the man-child Harold Skimpole, a man who uses his child-like breezy carelessness as a mask for the devious man concealed beneath. Don't ever remember a real child in Dickens colored darkly with some black.
There is Esther Summerson, of course, her surname a play on her disposition. But in Esther's mother, Lady Honoria Dedlock, all stern, elite mask, very early on Dickens' glimpses us a look at children and Lady Dedlock. From her window in Chesney Wold, "My Lady Dedlock (who is childless)..." sees a young child of estate workers running in the rain to greet her father as her mother gives chase. This puts Lady Dedlock "quite out of temper" and she says she has been 'bored to death'. For what reason she and her husband, Sir Leicester, go (flee) to Paris. That's on pages 10 and 11. Much later on, p. 152, in Paris, Lady Dedlock sees the poor "gay...playing with children" and is "bored to death". Even her own maid is having fun, for which Lady Dedlock "almost hated her". "She cannot, therefore, go too fast from Paris...the imperfect remedy is always to fly".Lady Dedlock continues to flee throughout the novel, flees to her own child, Esther, and then flees away from all, child and adult, to her death in the graveyard where Esther's father was buried.
I didn't notice on prior readings how subtly Dickens uses children to color Lady Dedlock's character.
This Morning
Biased RCP's biased average of the good, bad, and biased polls has Kamala up a smidge to +1.8 nationally, +0.2 over all swings, ahead in three, behind in three, tied in Nevada, 270 EVs and the presidency.
And Nevada investors putting a leetle more money on the blues to win the White House, 49.5%-49.3%.
538 has the Kama Walz +3.3 nationally.
You see this skit all the time truncated at the end of the original joke. But the shortened version doesn't do Louis' comedic genius full credit. He finishes original gag and then walks to his stool. "Well, it didn't really happen." Audience laughs. Pauses, picks up water bottle, takes a swig. Audience laughs and claps. "This is what really happened, I'm not going to lie to you again." He ADMITS to the audience that he just lied to them! You get to see how his mind work. He tells the audience how his mind works. "We're really the same people, it's kind of hard to lose an argument when rhe other person is you too." A comedian telling an audience how his mind works...Admitting to his audience that he lied because, "It's as true as anything that really did happen." "Anybody somebody says something to me I just decide what they said anyway." Rare, rare, rare, that.
Louis CK, "My neighbor George", live in Arizona.
The Little Engine That Can't
Sorry, sorry Arsenal are choking a little early this season. A 1-1 draw with Brighton AND Hove White People sticks in their craw.
Pitt leading rusher Rodney Hammond Jr. declared ineligible--Espo
Gonna be a longgg season for mi el "panteras."
Mr. "RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING!!!"🙄
Aug. 5:
Aug. 30:
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all time high of 41,585.21 before closing at 41,563.08, up 0.6%. It was the blue-chip index’s fourth record close this week and 26th this year."
WOLF! WOLF!
This Nails It. It's Weird.
Who does that? I really want you to think about this for a minute. Do you know anyone in your life who would pose for a photo in a cemetery giving the thumbs-up?
I do not.
Interesting
Harris got a polling bounce before her convention, not after
Trump got a small boost after the RNC, but Harris's candidacy reset the race.
Ever Heard of New York Times Pitchbot?
I haven't subscribed to NYT for, oh about a year. Their McDonalds commercial writ large Editorial Board, their twee double-headed endorsement in 2020,
their "quasi-official" entitlement, their forced homogenization of differences between Democrats and Republicans, their maniacal mission to listen to Trump low-lifes, to give voice to those best left dumb, to point out the "fun" of Trump rallies, their "Here's what you need to know" pedanticism, Nicholas Kristof. ...My indictment is lengthy.
Anyway, New York Times Pitchbot parodies all things Timesian:
Okay, so that's the template. The template is the Times' template. More:
So he, the creator of New York Times Pitchbot is a math professor, takes these Timesian things and parodies them, or, sometimes, they parody themselves. Viz.
The Times self-parody'ing:
Doug J. Balloon, or Mr. Balloon as the Times' stylist would insist he be called, expanded into other fecund fields:
I hope Kamala's next sit-down is with New York Times Pitchbot.
Thursday, August 29, 2024
ABC/538 Weighted Average National: Kamala +3.5
Pa. Kamala +1.8
Az. Kamala +0.4
Ga. Kamala +0.7
Mi. Kamala +3
Mn. Kamala +9
Nv. Kamala +1.4
NC trumpie +0.2
Va. Kamala +3
Wi. Kamala +3.6
ABC/538 EVs Kamala 303
Bronze
Pennsylvania may be a problem for Harris
The Electoral College/popular vote gap is increasing in post-DNC data.
...Kamala Harris had one of her worst days in some time in our forecast on Thursday despite gaining in our national polling average.
Harris is ahead by 3.8 points in our national poll tracker — up from 2.3 points the day before the Democratic Convention began — which does suggest some sort of convention bounce. However, she’s fallen to a 47.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College versus 52.4 percent for Donald Trump.
...
There’s another, longer-term concern for Harris, though: it’s been a while since we’ve seen a poll showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than a third of time in our model. Today, in fact, we added one post-DNC poll showing Pennsylvania as a tie, and another (conducted during the DNC) showing either a tie or Trump +1, depending on what version you prefer.
The model puts a lot of weight on this recent data because of all the changes in the race. And you can see why it thinks this is a problem for her: if she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November.
Harris has had weak numbers in Pennsylvania recently
The 2024 Pennsylvania presidential general election polls in our model and how influential they are
Okay, well, that bottom line hypothetical, I reject. I mean, yes, I agree that if she wins the pop vote by 1%-2% then yes, of course, the odds are great that she would lose in the EC, duh. My point of disagreement, my point of agreement with Stuart Stevens, is that the election in the pop vote is not going to be nearly that tight. It's going to be greater than Biden's margin and that was 4.4%!
I entirely agree with Bronze that Kamala has a Pa. problem. And the commonwealth is, well The Keystone.
RCP Aggregate
National: Kamala +1.8 That's up.
Top Battlegrounds: Kamala +0.6% (first time I can remember her leading trumpie in aggregate in the battleground states)
Battleground states:
Wi. Kamala +1.9
Pa. Kamala +0.8. First time that I can remember that she has led Pa. by RCP's reckoning. Pa. with the other blue wall states gives her the presidency.
Mi. Kamala +2.3%
Az. trumpie +0.4
Nv. trumpie +0.3
NC trumpie +0.3
Ga. tie 48.1%-48.1%. Don't ever remember Ga. being tied in RCP.
Electoral Votes: kamala 270
Now, THIS is really interesting. The polls today show a marked change for kamala. But Las Vegas investors actually favor trumpie with their money, 49.3%-49.2%. I trust the people who put their money where their mouths are more than the polls! I wish it wasn't so, it is the most infinitesimal amount, it may not be so tomorrow, but tonight, I agree with the bettors that kamala is the slightest underdog to win the presidency.
Ah! I actually had a similar thought*
Stuart Stevens, a member of the anti-Trump Republican group, the Lincoln Project, and a strategist for Mitt Romney’s failed 2012 presidential bid, challenged widespread predictions of a close election by suggesting that Trump’s approach would eventually alienate voters and enable Harris to win convincingly. (1)
“There’s been a lot of talk – it’s sort of a universal truth – that this election is going to be close,” he told CNN. “I have a different opinion. I think it’ll be close till about October 20th, and then I think it’s going to be like Carter versus Reagan, that the bottom is going to start to drop out [of Trump’s campaign].(2)
“I think this is going to be a race that Democrats are going to win by more than Biden did,” he added.(3)
Updated:
1) I agree--in the popular vote. In the EC I can't see Kamala getting more than 303 EV's. 303 would require her to win Pa., Mi., Wi., Mn., Ga., Az., and Nv.--and she would still fall short of Biden's 306. To top Biden she would have to win NC in addition.
2) Why Oct. 20? That's cuttin' it a little close, Stu! In any event, the bottom is not dropping out like Carter-Reagan! You mean an EC landslide, too??? 489 EV's?! No.
3) I agree completely that she will win the pop. vote more decisively than did Biden.
One paragraph:
...
Then this paragraph:
The U.S. diplomatic scramble, combined with displays of military force, shows that the United States is determined to prevent a wider conflagration — and prepared to strike powerfully in support of Israel, if necessary.
Completely different. I'm for the first paragraph and four square against the second. I'm not fighting Israel's war against Iran.
Investing College Tackle Football
I don't bet on my team, but if they weren't my team I would take Kent State to cover 24.5 against my "Panthers" Saturday.
Nebraska -27.5 UTEP. Nickel on UTEP.
Georgia (1)-Clemson (14). Dang. Marquee game in Week 1! Ugadawgs -13.5. No play.
Flarida-Miami Gardens (19). Gardeners -2.5
Half Ass U (10) -16.5-BC Pigeons. No play.
Couch Burn-Paterno-Sandusky U -7.5. No play...I don't think. If I played it would be Lasch and the over.
City Champions League Matches
MANCHESTER CITY
Home opponents: Inter, Club Brugge, Feyenoord. Sparta Prague
Away opponents: PSG, Juventus, Sporting Lisbon, Slovan Bratislava
I'll take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
National (WSJ (quality), 8-24/8-28, 1500 REG (not LIKELY) voters, 2.5 M.o.E. Kamala 48% trumpie 47%
There is NO evidence of a post-convention bounce for kamala.
trumpie reposts QAnon
WWG1WGA! RETRUTH IF YOU AGREE.
The acronym is short for the QAnon slogan: “where we go one, we go all.”
He similarly reposted another QAnon phrase:
“nothing can stop what is coming.”
In yet another incendiary communication, Trump posted manipulated images of some of his favourite targets – including the entrepreneur Bill Gates, Anthony Fauci, who spearheaded the US vaccine effort against Covid-19, Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi – imprisoned and wearing orange jumpsuits.
The post – originally posted by another user – featured photos of Harris and Hillary Clinton alongside the comment: “Funny how blowjobs impacted both their careers differently…”
On 18 August, he shared a video by the Dilley Meme Team, a group of rightwing content creators, to the soundtrack of a parody of the Alanis Morrisette song Ironic that contained the lines, “She spent her whole damn life down on her knees”, as an image of Brown appeared behind a picture of the US vice-president and her husband, Doug Emhoff.
(The Guardian)
Advantage Trump
The quality polls released yesterday and today give scant, if any at all, evidence of a post-convention bounce for Kamala Walz and no comfort at all that she will win the presidency in the Electoral College.
Emerson (quality) Swings
Yes, toss-ups all and all within M.o.E. But we torture ourselves, take the meaningless leads as set in stone and construct our Electoral College map:
Official U.S. Army Statement on Trump-Arlington Incident
Arlington National Cemetery routinely hosts public wreath laying ceremonies at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier for individuals and groups who submit requests in advance. ANC conducts nearly 3,000 such public ceremonies a year without incident.Participants in the August 26th ceremony and the subsequent Section 60 visit were made aware of federal laws, Army regulations and DoD policies, which clearly prohibit political activities on cemetery grounds. An ANC employee who attempted to ensure adherence to these rules was abruptly pushed aside. Consistent with the decorum expected at ANC, this employee acted with professionalism and avoided further disruption. The incident was reported to the JBM-HH police department, but the employee subsequently decided not to press charges. Therefore, the Army considers this matter closed.This incident was unfortunate, and it is also unfortunate that the ANC employee and her professionalism has been unfairly attacked. ANC is a national shrine to the honored dead of the Armed Forces, and its dedicated staff will continue to ensure public ceremonies are conducted with the dignity and respect the nation’s fallen deserve.Respectfully,U.S. Army Public Affairs
The vice president's small lead was fueled by big shifts among some key demographic groups traditionally crucial for Democrats, including Hispanic and Black voters and young people. Among those with annual incomes of less than $20,000, in the biggest change, a three-point Trump edge over Biden in June has become a 23-point Harris advantage over Trump in August.😳
Now THAT is amazing. In the Suffolk/USA Today poll released today that has Kamala with a 5-point lead nationally.