Bronze:
🕒 Last update: 1:00 p.m., Saturday, August 31: Another day of slight decline for Kamala Harris, and it’s the same culprits — the convention bounce adjustment, which you’re welcome to argue with but I defend in the new edition of SBSQ, and the polling in Pennsylvania, where we added two new polls showing Trump slightly ahead. Democrats shouldn’t worry so much about the Trafalgar poll; it counts as a Republican poll by our standards and the model accounts for its strong GOP house effect. But a Wick poll showing Harris down a point in the multiway matchup isn’t great for the vice president, especially considering it shows that she would have run much stronger with Josh Shapiro on the ticket.
Electoral College map per above per Bronze
I'll take that dos tomorrow.