Monday, September 30, 2024

Polls Wobble, Don't Flip, Race Unchanged, Kamala Will Win

Of course the polls are going to wobble. Every day there is a new one. Days are different. So are polls. Polling two days ago by abc pollster is going to be different than yesterday's by xyz pollster.

The race is extremely tight, both nationally and in the 6-7 swing states so I get it. A 0.1 change in Pennsylvania, for instance, buoys one side and depresses the other.

It is for these reasons that it's important to keep in mind that the race has not changed. It is extremely tight only in Harris' margin of victory. The normal polling wobbles have not flipped the national popular vote from Harris to Trump and back again. Harris has been the national popular vote leader for a very long time. Likewise, she has been the winner in the Electoral College on the vast majority of days. Put in a nutshell, all the data taken as a whole, and over time, is overwhelmingly consistent with Kamala Harris being the next president.