Friday, September 13, 2024

RCP (conservative biased): Pennsylvania goes blue, Kamala Wins Presidency

HOWEVER. BUT. There is no new Pa. poll. RCP crudely lops off the most remote poll or two in drawing their map.🙄


 

And for the first time since PoJo withdrew and she became the nominee, she has a slight lead in the subtly shaded tossups map.


RCP's national, conservative-biased, average is Kamala +1.5, 48.5%-47%. I evaluate trumpie's share by the hard ceiling rule. Any poll that has him 48+% I don't consider since he has never gotten 48% of the national vote in either of his two previous runs. This 47% share passes muster.