So why is Nate Silver a snake oil salesman? Because the external referrent for his percentages is his computer model, not reality, which means that his percentages are never wrong. Which also means that his percentages are never right! The percentages are not a prediction, they're a forecast. When the Niks had an 80% win chance in the second quarter that meant that in 100 model runs with the lead whatever it was, the Niks won 80 times. They also lost 20 times. Both of those were true, Silver would say, then, in the 2nd quarter. When Peaceniks had an 80% chance in the 4th quarter, that too was true. The model (closed loop referrent) said so. Didn't mean the team with a 80% chance would win, not like my statement in the title, "Niks gonna lose", just that the forecast called for an 80% chance of it raining apples in the 2nd and an 80% chance of a splash in Manhattan in the 4th. Never wrong, never right, always horse shit.