Israel Kills Ali Larijani, Iran's Top Security Official, Gholam Reza Soleimani, Head of Feared Basij Force
This picking off of the leadership may work. The accepted theory is that you can kill dictatorships by killing the dictator (Ayatollah Khamenei). That was the theory behind the Stauffenberg plan. And, perhaps it's necessary to kill the top lieutenants, too. Israel had great success whacking the Hamas leadership, and of course the unfortunate page malfunctions, had a chilling effect on the apparatchiks. The reverse is that you can kill the chosen leader of a democracy but you will not kill the democracy. However, but. I don't know that the dictatorship theory has ever been proved. Iran moved to a successor for Ayatollah Khamenei with alacrity.
But there is an uncertain end game in dictatorships. Is it regime change? Who is the replacement American and Israel have in mind? It certainly wasn't Khamenei's son, however debilitated by the strike on his father he may be. Is the replacement the Shah's son? In short, what are you changing the regime to? To use a puerile analogy, which nonetheless may have force, when a major sports team axes its head coach, it best have a replacement ready to step in when the axe falls. As high a regard as I have for the Iranian people, I don't see Federalist Society sleeper cells ready to burst forth. I don't see an Anwar Sadat (who was murdered by his military, btw) shooting up from the rubble ready to make love not war with the Israelis and Amerks.
And has air power, i.e. without ground troops, ever precipitated regime change? Israel killed 72,000 Palestinians in Gaza, 80% of them civilian, 30% children. Gaza had 2.1M-2.3M residents before the war. Iran has 93M. Gaza was raised by air and Israel invaded with ground forces. Israel has 10M people. It is not impossible for a country of 10M to invade and rule a country of 93M with the 10M's regime of choice.
So, I like Israel targeting Iranian leadership more than I like anything else Israel has done (and I don't like almost all of it) but I do not know, I literally don't know what the end game of either the U.S. or Israel is, i.e. whether the successor regime (if it comes to that) is even a thought for the two aggressors.
Finally, tonight, this morning, there is a competing theory, it is my own (as far as I know): "Better rubble than rabble", i.e. nuking Iran, as the U.S. did Japan. Go on killing leaders, scientists, generals, fighters as soon as they spring up without getting bogged down in a ground "quagmire" that you cannot win, but if you're not making the requisite progress, mushroom clouds and irradiation are much quicker. To be sure there is the inconvenience of travel in one's golden years when one has one corruption trial looming at home (or 34 felony convictions already on your rap sheet) and warrants out for your arrest on war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide internationally, with non-understanding officials in Europe, Canada, and New York City ready to snap handcuffs on you, but if you book your travel prudently, as Henry Kissinger did, perhaps it's no big deal.
Anyway, Trumpanyahoo, do be prudent negotiated these land mines, and those in the Strait of Hormuz. Good night. I hate you.
9:37 pm:
Meteor Startles ClevelandWhat? It's a public occurrence. Shut up.
Trump fumes at NATO for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz
11:51 am:
‘Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation’: Trump-appointed intelligence official resigns over Iran war
“After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today,” Joe Kent wrote in a post on X.
“I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby,” Kent added in the resignation letter he attached to the post.