Abdul El-Sayed is not going to win Michigan by 11 points (final NYT/Siena poll).
El-Sayed led Haley Stevens by 10.2 points in the final primary polls. He won by 1%. It is the greatest polling error in my memory and I cannot account for why the polls missed so badly.
In RCP's six polls (of varying quality) taken Oct. 26 and later, El-Sayed leads by an average of 5.83%. None of these most recent polls measure the impact of Stevens "despicable betrayal" by endorsing MAGA Mike Rogers.
It says here that we are deluding ourselves that Stevens will have no effect in tomorrow's voting. But there are those of us who believe that it helps El-Sayed. My fellow true blues, that is not reasonable. It is reasonable that it hurts Abdul.
I am left haunted by the unaccountable, extreme polling error in the primary, the nearest analog to the polling in the general election. El-Sayed's support could be over-stated by five ponts and he would be Senator-Elect. But if his support is overstated by 6%, MAGA Mike is the Senator-elect.
This race, imho, is going to be tighter than a ten-year old's asshole. El-Sayad will win or lose by 1%-2%. Close does not count in elections. We should not care if El-Sayad wins by one vote.
Hedging is the forecaster's cowardly streak. I am no braveheart but I will predict a winner: El-Sayed by 1%-2%. The outcome could so easily be the opposite but the polls in the midterms in the last few cycles have been accurate. ...I just can't explain those primary polls.
So I have chosen: El-Sayed close, by 1%-2%. Just my judgment by available light. I wear my nickname "Mr. Wrong, Always Certain" with a bow to reality. This is what I truly believe and I've given it enough thought to be satisfied that I can't do any more.
Good night, if I was religious I would pray for El-Sayed to win. Good luck Abdul, I am with you. But Democrats, steel yourself against a closer, much closer outcome than in our hopes. I love you all Blues.