THE FINAL 2026 RATINGS: Democrats Favored to Capture House, Senate, and Gubernatorial Majorities
Senate: 6 flips to D, 53 Seat Majority
The Senate
Suggesting that Democrats enter Election Day as narrow favorites to flip Senate seats in Kansas, which has the longest streak of electing Republican senators in the country, and Texas, which has the longest streak of electing Republicans in all statewide races, just seems, on a gut level, insane. And perhaps it is.
But the horrible electoral environment for Republicans paired with the astoundingly weak candidacies of Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-TX), plus the impressive showings from pastor Adam Hamilton (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D), makes this a possibility. We have been stunned at how many people we respect think Democrats will win both of these races (this is both from our own discussions and also what we have gleaned from others’ reporting).
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While we had moved toward favoring Democrats in the Senate over the past several weeks, we have more Leans Democratic races than we expected we would (as recently as six days ago, we wrote that we thought we would land at a more modest 51 or 52). It wouldn’t take much—some understatement of Republicans in polls combined with strong GOP Election Day turnout—for Republicans to save some of these races, and even their majority. But the bulk of the evidence we have points to the Democrats in the Senate, and not just by a single seat.
House: 24 flips to D; 239 Seat Majority
Governors
The Governors 5 flips to D, 1 flip to R
The last time Democrats held a majority of the nation’s governorships was during a stretch in the late aughts, beginning with the blue wave of 2006, when they captured 28 states, and ending with the red wave of 2010, which left them with just 20. Our ratings suggest they could get to a majority once again, and then some.