The worm has turned, trumpie. And you know it.
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
🦊Kamala 🐈⬛ 50% trumpie 🐶 48%*
This marks the first time Harris has hit 50% support (https://www.foxnews.com/category/person/kamala-harris), and the trial ballot result is identical among both registered and likely voters. That’s unsurprising given most Americans who are willing to spend time answering a political survey are also probably going to vote.
*The poll violates the Publocc Rule. trumpie will not get more than 47%.
"Walkie-talkie maker says exploded devices appear to have been knockoffs"-AP
It appears they knocked off 20 hez walker-talkers and knocked out over 450. Sad!
538
Current state of the race: Kamala 48.5%-trumpie 45.2%.
Forecast for Nov. 5: mostly blue skies.
Win probability: Kamala 64 trumpie 36. Last night at about this time it was 61-39.
Electoral Votes: 300-238
Pop. Vote: 52.3%-47.7%
Political Investors Daily Evening Report. Oh my goodness, the bottom is falling out for trumpie
52.7%-45.7%.
SEVEN full percentage points.
I have a theory
It is based on no facts. My theory is that trumpie really believes he is going to lose. Like my theory, trumpie's beliefs are of course based on no facts. That is, he doesn't believe bad polls. He doesn't believe his advisors. He bases his beliefs, and this one, on Signs, Omens.
Now this is fact: he spent three and a half years running against PoJo, and then he got Kamala. It messed with his head. Doesn't know what to make of her or what to do with her. He just knows he's afraid of her.
We've seen and heard nine years of this deranged motherfucker and to me, he looks and sounds down now, demoralized, "low energy". He's old, he is degrading mentally and physically. He's going through the motions. I don't think he has it in him to run hard.
Signs: crowd size. There is nothing more important to him than crowd size. He tried denying that Kamala's crowds were bigger but the photos, and the videos, and the TV, and and and...He can't convince himself anymore that his crowds are bigger. He doesn't even argue it anymore. He knows.
Signs. Maybe cash is an even bigger deal to him. He knows he is getting drowned in green.
Omens: The Biden debate, June 27. Home free!
Omens: The ear-piercing procedure, July 13. The high water mark. Couldn't get higher, higher than a kite. The most defiant, heroic reaction I have ever seen to a failed murder attempt. "FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!" Cover of Time. One of the iconic photos in history. No less an authority than I pronounced the presidential race over.
Omens: The RNC, July 15-18. An anointment of the Chosen One. Literally heaven-sent to his low-lifes. Still HIGHER!
Confident as he was, and had every right to be, there were still three and a half months to go.
Omens: The Big One. Biden dropped out. July 21. He did not see it coming. Has not recovered, either in his mind or in political reality. He still can hardly believe it.
Omens: the Kamala debate. He knows he cleaned Joey's clock and he knows Kamala cleaned his clock. He went into the spin room personally after the debate with Kamala! He was panicked. He had never been beaten that badly. He knew it immediately, he knows it now.
Signs: "NO MORE DEBATES!" That is a sign that he knows he got mauled in the first, knows that he can't win, and doesn't want to go to the trouble of debating again. He has come to terms with political defeat. The date in November that he's focused on now? Not November 5, November 26, the date of his sentencing in Manhattan. He is looking past the election entirely to his sentencing.
Signs: For a month or so he hasn't listened to his aides. He got a replacement. The modern Rasputin, Laura Loomer
Signs: "eating cats and dogs"..."and geese" mebbe...in Springfield, no, Dayton...mebbe.
Signs: "I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT".
Those two things, both Loomer-pushed imo, caused Normals across the country to turn off their TVs and bypass the political news in the newspapers.
It's over and he knows it.
If it's not one thing, it's another
If it's not defective pagers, it's defective walkie-talkies.
Hez, why don't you go ALL the way back--to papyrus and reeds?
What's My Line? (Week 4, scholarly tackle football)
Game Me Big Brother Actual Winner
Tenn (6) @ Oklahoma (15) Tn -3 OU-2 Tn-7 Me
USC (11) @ Michigan USC-2 Mi-2 USC-5.5 Me
Utah (12) @ Okie State (14) U-1 Okie St-4 Utah -2 Me
LSU (16)-UCLA LSU-4 LSU-8 LSU-24 B.B.
Shocked by that line
K-State (13)-BYU BYU-1 K-State-8 K-State -6.5 B.B.
WINNER: Me.
One killed, over 100 people wounded in second wave of device explosions in Lebanon
At the funeral of 3 Hez' fighters and a girl killed yesterday!😁
Okay! Let's play Pin the Tail on the Jackass
This is what the Electoral Map would look like for Kamala to get "over 400 electoral votes:
Ohio, Florida, Texas all go BLUE. Okay?
Could there be a Kamala Harris landslide in November? The data scientist who correctly called the last election is betting yes
Miller’s approach vastly differs from the most of political prognostications by relying not on polls, but the prices established by Americans wagering their own dollars on the candidates they reckon are most likely to prevail. “Political betting sites are the best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd,” he told Fortune.
He states that while polls tell you about the past, the odds on the betting sites map the future. ...
...Miller reckons that a better question than “Tell us which candidate you’ll vote for?” is “Which candidate do you expect to win?” And while the pollsters don’t pose that query, it’s just how the bettors are making a market.
[I agree that that is the better question, and agree that betting markets are better forecasters than polls.]
...
For the 2024 presidential race, Miller is once again relying on Predictit. He praises the site for “having a more stable group of investors” than the populations screened by pollsters. ...
...
It was the onstage battle in Philadelphia that wrecked the 78-year old former POTUS, according to the Miller numbers.
[I agree that the race turned there. "Wrecked", no.]
Within a day after the candidates left the podium, Harris had jumped to exactly over 400 electoral votes. The Harris endorsement from Taylor Swift, secured the day of the debate, probably helped sink Trump’s chances, according to Miller. Since then, Harris has maintained for 400-plus vote total.
[Get the fuck outta here. No matter how brilliant you are or how clever your methodology, you lose all credibility when you predict nonsense like that.]
If the situation persists, Trump faces an absolute rout. “It would be somewhere between the defeats of Barry Goldwater by Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Bob Dole by Bill Clinton in 1996,” says Miller. “We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state.”
[The problem with eggheads is that they take themselves so seriously to the point of reductio ad absurdum point. Has he even looked at an Electoral College Map? Does he know that even if Kamala wins all ten swings she ends up with 319 EVs?. I'm going to create a map that gets Kamala "over 400 electoral votes" and post it in the next post.]
...“It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris,” he marvels. ...
[No it has not and you have a bone in your brain.]
As a coda, he recalls a slogan the Johnson campaign used to bash Goldwater: “In your gut you know he’s nuts.”
["Weird" is 2024's equivalent of nuts and I agree that that '64 slogan fits trumpie-Couch at and since the debate and has left them with a weirdo ceiling of ~46%]
Miller’s markets-based analysis posits that the people betting their own money are right in predicting that by the time the candidates left the stage on September 10, millions of voters likely to back Donald Trump abandoned the ex-President, starting the shock waves that could cause an avalanche for Harris that as of now, few see building.
[That reasonably could be. The race has turned demonstrably.]
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Political Investors Daily Evening Report + Current Temperature + Forecast for Nov. 5
Investors moved their chips Kamala-way through the day. This evening the lucre is on her 51.7% 46.9%, her widest margin and, from memory, the widest for either candidate.
Current National Temperature
Conservative-biased RCP: Kamala cat 49.3% trumpie dog 47.3%. RCP's average violates my rule of poll interpretation that any poll or average showing trumpie with 47%+ overstates his real support.
Silver Bull: 48.9%-46.0/%. Consistent with the (Benjamin) Harris rule of interpretation.
ABC/538 current: 48.3%-45.3%. Ditto.
Silver Bull and ABC/538 have identical headlines:
November 5 Forecast
ABC/538 Popular Vote:
He's not getting 47.9! The 4.2% margin is however over the Silver Bull Rule that a D has to win the pop. vote by ~3.5 to win in the EC.
Their forecast calls for blue wins in every swing:
319 EVs, not a drenching that would cause a landslide but a thorough soaking still.
The Hez Pager Defect
It seems it originated in the manufacturing process, right on the shop floor! A recall notice has been issued and OSHA is involved.
Hezbollah pager explosions kill several people in Lebanon
- Hezbollah calls it biggest security breach in war with Israel
- 😂🤣👏
BEIRUT, Sept 17 (Reuters) - At least three people were killed and more than 1,000 others including Hezbollah fighters, medics and Iran's envoy to Beirut were wounded on Tuesday when the pagers they use to communicate exploded across Lebanon, security sources told Reuters.
A Hezbollah official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the detonation of the pagers was the "biggest security breach" the group had been subjected to in nearly a year of conflict with Israel.
Sorry if this is insensitive😂🤣😂🤣😂👏
From my son:
Incredible Israeli cyber warfare. They seemed to have managed to infect Hezbollah devices with malware that overheats the lithium batteries. Hundreds of reports of these devices exploding simultaneously in the pockets of operatives. Absolutely insane. I never heard of an attack like this.
Political Investors Daily Morning Report: Kamala +4, 51.2%-47.2%, a large lead
On the other hand. In conservative-biased RCP's Electoral count, Pennsylvania has flipped back to trumpie dog giving him 281 EVs to Kamala cat's 257. The flip is due to an InsiderAdvantage poll 9/14-15 of 800 LVs, M.o.E. 3.5 that has trumpie 50% Kamala 48%. The poll violates my cardinal rule that any poll that shows trumpie getting over his historical 46.8% high is not credible. IA is a two-star (out of three) firm per 538, rated 95th best. Be gone!
Monday, September 16, 2024
What Electoral College Disadvantage?
Look at this whiff me, wouldja? This is conservative-biased RCP's color-coded Electoral Vote bar.
Now look at the next-lighter shades: 52 for Kama Walz, 38 for trumpie-Couch. Those are what RCP deems "likely" for one side or the other. Those are states it doesn't pay the trailing side to put much if any resources into. That's a significant difference, too. Add those two sets of numbers together and it's Kama Walz 191, trumpie-Couch 131. On locks and near-locks Kamala is within 79 of the presidency.
Now go to the sky blue and pink. 30 for Kamala, 88 for trumpie. Those are "leans". trumpie better lean hard on them, hoo doggie!
The sky blue, the pink, and the gray are all up for grabs for either candidate. Those three shades add up to 216 Electoral Votes. trumpie has to play defense more, he has to defend almost three times the territory that kamala has to defend. And he would still need to win 50, over half, of the toss-up gray, to break even in the Electoral College and throw the election into the House of Representatives, where he would win the presidency.
trumpie would have to win 138, all the pink and 50 grays, of the truly up for grabs 216 Electoral Votes. Kamala would Walz into the presidency by holding her 30 sky blues and taking 49 of the grays, only 69 of those 216. 69 to 138 is a major advantage for Kamala Walz. RCP's shaded states map:
To my gut, the pink states, TX, FL and OH--we will do nothing in Texas, little to nothing in FL and nothing in Ohio unless the polls toss them into toss-ups. Needless to say, if trumpie lost any one of those states, which conservative-biased RCP labels as mere "leans", said trumpie would be hurtin' for certin'.
Similarly, I don't see trumpie-Couch making any feint into VA, MN and ME-2. They have other more fecund, nay desperate, states to spend their dwindling resources on: Pa., Wi., NC, Ga., Mi., NH. NV, NE-2. Conservative RCP, when they resolve to their no-tossup map, gives Pa., Wi., Mi, Mn., Va. NV, NH, NE-2 and ME-2 to Kamala-Walz. Resolving so many of the 216 up for grabs for Kamala gives her a squeaky comfortable 276 EVs.
For now, I have lost faith in Az, NC, and Ga. Ga. especially has flip-flopped but I don't have a good feeling there. NC I have no faith in, and I don't understand Az, trumpie has had a lead there for weeks, albeit a small one. 276 is a reasonable number for Kamala and does the trick and I'm not paying for a landslide.
😁
Secret Service chief makes remarkable
admission: We need a ‘paradigm shift’
You got that right, brother!
Assassination Attempt Parte Deux
1) did not have a line of sight on Trump, and never fired his weapon
2) spent nearly 12 hrs near golf course
What President Biden should do is increase trumpie's Secret Service protection and Kamala's to the equivalent of his own.
trumpie Sept. 13 in Cal.:
I want to say in California, with a very simple message for the American people, we cannot allow Comrade Kamala Harris and the communist left to do to America what they did to California. ...
You can vividly see the dystopian California landscape in the backdrop to his speech:
When you look at the kind of destruction that’s taken place, it’s all man-made or woman-made destruction too. ...
...
...we’re a nation in decline. The decline of this whole state is one of the sad chapters in what’s gone on with the radical left lunatics that we have to put up with.
THANK YOU RADICAL LEFT LUNATIC!
trumpie Aug. 5:
"STOCK MARKETS CRASHING. I TOLD YOU
"STOCK MARKETS CRASHING. I TOLD YOU
SO!!! KAMALA DOESN'T HAVE A CLUE. BIDEN IS SOUND
ASLEEP. ALL CAUSED BY INEPT U.S. LEADERSHIP!"
"Of course there is a massive market downturn. Kamala is even worse
"Of course there is a massive market downturn. Kamala is even worse
than Crooked Joe. Markets will NEVER accept the Radical Left Lunatic
that DESTROYED San Francisco and California, as a whole. Next
move, THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF 2024! You can't
play games with MARKETS. KAMALA CRASH!!!"
Aug. 15, new market high:
Today, exactly one month later:
For example, in March 2021, the National Labor Relations Board (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/25/tesla-elon-musk-anti-union-tweet-must-be-deleted-nlrb.html) ordered Tesla to have Musk delete a social media post that it saw as a threat to union organizers. As of Monday, the tweet (https://x.com/elonmusk/status/998454539941367808?lang=en) remains posted on the site.
You have to obey the laws and regulatory rules of the country you operate in. That's just basic national sovereignty. Musk did not comply with the NLRB's lawful directive to delete a post on Twitter. Instead he bought Twitter! Disobeying, and flaunting the disobdiance of, lawful governmental orders is exactly what got X banned in Brazil.
The same should happen in the U.S.
Musk initially resisted numerous calls throughout Sunday night to delete the post. In one post responding to a demand to take down his remarks, Musk doubled down (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1835537833869623681):
“No one has even tried to do so is the point I’m making and no one will.”
Someone should at least TRY to assassinate PoJo/Kamala "is the point I'm making." But "no one will." Sad!
Interesting
Iowa, Iowa!, the one-time swing that trumpie won by 9.5% in 2016 and 8.2% in 2020 is now trumpie +4 in a poll conducted by the Des Moines Register Sept. 8-11.
And, wait for it...ALASKA, trumpie +15 2016, +10 2020, is trumpie +5 in a poll conducted by Alaska Survey Research of 1,254 LV Sept. 11-12.
Political Investors Daily Morning Report: Kamala 51% trumpie 47.7%
A massive shift in 24 hours of 0.9% toward trumpie.
Sunday, September 15, 2024
At 5:20 pm I posted my first about the assassination attempt. The frisson quickly dissipated and when it did my reaction settled to,
I think the political rule of assassinations is you only get one total bounce. (Text to family and one friend at 6:37, posted here at 6:38.
So the political shelf life for this for me lasted one hour and twenty-seven mins. It has been a surreal summer but that was my unconsciously nonplussed reaction within less than an hour and a half. It was not consciously cynical, it was sincerely how I felt. Maybe the majority of American adults are still still deeply affected, I can only speak for myself. When the assassination attempt in Butler, Pa. occurred I was about broken. That was so close to a successful assassination and trumpie's truly heroic response was unique in American political history. I thought he was a shoe-in to win the presidency in November after that. This had nowhere near the same effect on me. To reiterate, I speak for no one's feelings but my own, but I have thought, what undecided voter after Butler has now decided, "One didn't push me to vote for Trump; but this second, I'm definitely going to vote for him."? I truly feel a negligible number. Who among Kamala voters will say, "I have to vote for trumpie now?" None, imo. It is only 8 hours or so after the event and who knows what police interrogation of Routh will reveal? But unless he says the Harris-Walz campaign put out a hit on trumpie, I think we have a fair handle on the motive and I don't expect the event today to have any significant effect on the voters in the swing states. All of this are my honest, sincere, reactions and thoughts.
In 2020, he [Routh] made a social media post backing Trump’s reelection, but in more recent years his posts have expressed support for Biden and Harris.
(AP)
Rus invasion of Ukraine began Feb. 24 2022 and he was a big Ukraine supporter so that apparently was the catalyst to become a Biden-Harris supporter and, apparently, his motive to try to take out trumpie today. But. That is what it looks like to me based on available light. He has a lengthy criminal record long before even 2020, including possession of weapons of mass destruction, which in NC include fully automatic weapons. He was convicted in a 3-hour stand-off with police. That conviction manifestly did not disqualify him from voting in subsequent elections. It is a muddled picture in totality but it is clear that in 2024 he was aligned with Democrats and contributed money to us. It appears reasonably clear to me that this was an assassination attempt against trumpie because of trumpie's vehement opposition to Ukraine.
FT Carolina "Panthers" 3 La-La Charge-Charge 26
This is pure schadenfreude to me, I have no interest in either team. Carolina owner David Pecker is one...no, I'll say not one of, he is THE biggest asshole sports owner. Hires and fires head coaches just about every year. DRAFTS players himself.
So, The Panthers have been outscored 73-13 this season.
And,
At times, it appeared the Panthers were playing not to let the score get more out of hand, twice running the football in the final minutes of the third quarter while down by 20 — much to the chagrin of the home crowed, the majority of which left before the fourth quarter.
Carolina didn't throw the ball down the field.
Exquisitely pleasurable.
Trump plans to visit Springfield, Ohio, the site of his baseless claims about Haitian immigrants
Former President Donald Trump plans to visit Springfield, Ohio, "soon," a source familiar with the planning said.
Good! GO ASAP!
“In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs. The people that came in. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating — they’re eating the pets of the people that live there. And this is what’s happening in our country. And it’s a shame,” Trump said on the debate stage.
Raleigh News-Observer
Ryan Wesley Routh of Greensboro is in custody after the Secret Service spotted a scope pointed at the former president while he golfing at his course in Florida. Routh, 58, has an extensive criminal history in North Carolina that includes convictions between 2002 and 2010 of possession of weapons of mass destruction, carrying a concealed gun, hit and run, possession of stolen goods and resisting law enforcement, among other charges. Routh has a second address in Hawaii. But he’s registered to vote in North Carolina as an unaffiliated voter. In North Carolina, unaffiliated voters can choose which primary they want to vote in. Routh chose Democrats when he voted this spring.
NY Times interviewed him in 2023 on Ukraine!
A U.S. law enforcement official identified the suspect as Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, of Hawaii. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because the investigation is continuing. Mr. Routh was interviewed by The New York Times in 2023 for an article about Americans volunteering to aid the war effort in Ukraine. Mr. Routh, who had no military experience, said he had traveled there after Russia’s invasion in 2022 to recruit Afghan soldiers for the fight. He told The Times he once visited Washington to meet with politicians to strengthen support for Ukraine. “I’m just a U.S. citizen that’s helping out,” he said.
AP:
Ryan Wesley Routh is the suspect's name.
Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, chair of the House Republican Conference, questioned “how an assassin was allowed to get this close to President Trump again” in light of the attempt on his life two months earlier.
“There continues to be a lack of answers for the horrific assassination attempt in Pennsylvania and we expect there to be a clear explanation of what happened today in Florida,” she added, calling on Americans to “unite behind” the GOP nominee in the November general election.
[You're DREAMING, Stefanik. I. Assassinations. Sub A. Political Capitalization. Sub i. Only one cumulative benefit per candidate. Multiple assassination attempts must not be stacked. Taylor Swift will be playing at Kamala Harris' Inauguration.]
Routh was convicted in 2002 of possessing a weapon of mass destruction, according to online North Carolina Department of Adult Correction records. The records do not provide details about the case.
But a News & Record story from 2002 says a man with the same name was arrested after a three-hour standoff with police.
The story says he was pulled over during a traffic stop, put his hand on a gun and barricaded himself inside a roofing business.
Routh was charged with carrying a concealed weapon and possessing a weapon of mass destruction, “referring to a fully automatic machine gun,” according to the News & Record.
