Not Too-Too Important Tuesday is half in the books, and by far the largest half. Donald Trump lapped the field and more in Mississippi, achieving his highest vote percentage so far, 47%, and took all twenty of the state's delegates. There was an insufficient number of polls for RCP to calculate an average in Mississippi so we don't know for sure if he beat his polls, which he had not done anywhere on Semi-Super Saturday, and which was taken universally as a sign that the cumulative effect of the heavy barrage of criticism Trump faced in the week preceding Saturday was taking a cumulative toll. It is this strategy, outlined by Mitt Romney, that is the Republican establishment strategy to deadlock the convention to the extent that there is a Republican establishment and to the extent that is considered a strategy worthy of the name. Whatever the polls in Mississippi might have indicated had enough of them been taken, the mother-fucker got 47% of the vote.
Ted Cruz finished second in Mississippi with an impressive 36.4% of the vote but 11% behind Trump and won no delegates. That is a bit of a silver lining but the silver is considerably tarnished.
However, there is a deeper meaning to today's numbers. Marco Rubio is dead and with him died Romney's strategy which is linchpinned to Rubio winning Florida in a week. He is 16% behind the Trumpster Fire in the Asshole of America.
Rubio made the most creative, psychologically pointed, and humorous attacks on Trump and yet both on Saturday and tonight Rubio has fallen. Tonight he has fallen to Ben Carson suspend-the-campaign levels, fourth place, 5%, of the vote in Mississippi, behind Kasich, one-seventh of second-place Cruz and less than one-ninth of Trump's percent. Put a fork in Rubio, he's done.
In Michigan Trump has won with 36.8% with 92% of ballots counts, .5% under his polling average, Cruz finished second, besting his polling average by nearly 5%, Kasich finished third with 24.4%, less than 1% under his polling average but Rubio finished almost 1% under his 10% poll standing. Trump won 21 delegates in Michigan, Cruz, runner-up won 12, Kasich, in third place, won 15 delegates, 3 more than Cruz with .4% less of the vote.
There are two other contests tonight yet to declare a winner. The polls don't close in Hawaii for over an hour. They're closed in Idaho and though no one has been declared winner, Cruz, who has led all night, has a 11.5% lead over Trump. Rubio is third with 18.5% at the moment. 32% of Idaho's votes have been counted.
The deeper meaning of tonight's small sample of Republican voting states is that Rubio is dead and the establishment strategy is looking more the laughing stock than when Willard trotted it out. Cruz has established himself clearly as the alternative to Trump among the "radicalized, revanchist," i.e. "moron" vote within the GOP.
The other linchpin state to the establishment strategy is Ohio and there Kasich, in his home state, trails Trump by only 4%. But: the establishment strategy required Trump be beaten in both Florida and Ohio and right now his lead in Florida is prohibitive over Rubio and Kasich is losing his home state to Trump. Again, only Cruz has held serve in his home state.
It's Cruz or Trump.
In the less dramatic Democratic primaries Bernie Sanders finally eked out victory in Michigan over Hillary Clinton, who won 83% in Mississippi and took the majority of the night's total delegate haul.
Addendum and last word for tonight: still no victor declared in Idaho but Ted Cruz' lead has expanded a tiny bit, he now has 41.5% to Trump's 29.2% with 40% ballots counted. Hard to see Trump pulling Idaho out but the 'Xperts have not called it for Cruz at this final word.
*UPDATE: Cruz crushed Trump in Idaho. For the night Trump ended with 71 delegates, 47% of total, to 55 for Cruz.
Ted Cruz finished second in Mississippi with an impressive 36.4% of the vote but 11% behind Trump and won no delegates. That is a bit of a silver lining but the silver is considerably tarnished.
However, there is a deeper meaning to today's numbers. Marco Rubio is dead and with him died Romney's strategy which is linchpinned to Rubio winning Florida in a week. He is 16% behind the Trumpster Fire in the Asshole of America.
Rubio made the most creative, psychologically pointed, and humorous attacks on Trump and yet both on Saturday and tonight Rubio has fallen. Tonight he has fallen to Ben Carson suspend-the-campaign levels, fourth place, 5%, of the vote in Mississippi, behind Kasich, one-seventh of second-place Cruz and less than one-ninth of Trump's percent. Put a fork in Rubio, he's done.
In Michigan Trump has won with 36.8% with 92% of ballots counts, .5% under his polling average, Cruz finished second, besting his polling average by nearly 5%, Kasich finished third with 24.4%, less than 1% under his polling average but Rubio finished almost 1% under his 10% poll standing. Trump won 21 delegates in Michigan, Cruz, runner-up won 12, Kasich, in third place, won 15 delegates, 3 more than Cruz with .4% less of the vote.
There are two other contests tonight yet to declare a winner. The polls don't close in Hawaii for over an hour. They're closed in Idaho and though no one has been declared winner, Cruz, who has led all night, has a 11.5% lead over Trump. Rubio is third with 18.5% at the moment. 32% of Idaho's votes have been counted.
The deeper meaning of tonight's small sample of Republican voting states is that Rubio is dead and the establishment strategy is looking more the laughing stock than when Willard trotted it out. Cruz has established himself clearly as the alternative to Trump among the "radicalized, revanchist," i.e. "moron" vote within the GOP.
The other linchpin state to the establishment strategy is Ohio and there Kasich, in his home state, trails Trump by only 4%. But: the establishment strategy required Trump be beaten in both Florida and Ohio and right now his lead in Florida is prohibitive over Rubio and Kasich is losing his home state to Trump. Again, only Cruz has held serve in his home state.
It's Cruz or Trump.
In the less dramatic Democratic primaries Bernie Sanders finally eked out victory in Michigan over Hillary Clinton, who won 83% in Mississippi and took the majority of the night's total delegate haul.
Addendum and last word for tonight: still no victor declared in Idaho but Ted Cruz' lead has expanded a tiny bit, he now has 41.5% to Trump's 29.2% with 40% ballots counted. Hard to see Trump pulling Idaho out but the 'Xperts have not called it for Cruz at this final word.
*UPDATE: Cruz crushed Trump in Idaho. For the night Trump ended with 71 delegates, 47% of total, to 55 for Cruz.
