Boy oh boy

Beer beat Rust 120-119 (OT) and Motown beat the 7' 6"'ers 102-94.

Rebounds the story in BKLYN. The "Nyets" shot better overall and from range, and had fewer turnovers but got KILLED on the boards 57-41. Kyrie didn't shoot well again and again this was at home. He was 9/22 tonight. Don't understand these "Nyets"! This was a big ass game against the defending world champions and was on their home floor. BKLYN is 1-2 with Irving full time. They're in a three-way tie for eighth with Chazz and HotAtl all having identical records.

And then there's Phil. They've lost three in a row down the fucking stretch--two to last year's finalists now! But not tonight. Everybody played, their big three. Joel was a monster, Electric Maxey had little juice and Beard was horrible. Defense killed them tonight. Is that a recurring theme or is that BKLYN? I forget. Anyway it was the plot line tonight. Motown--this team is 21-56 okay?--that team shot a perfect 50% against Philly. I mean are you fucking kidding me? And Mo took 13 more shots! They made half of 82 while Phil made 44.9% of 69. How did they get 13 more shots? They had six fewer turnovers but Philly only had 15. Rebounding was almost identical (Phil +1). Six more possessions and less rebbe does not equal +13 shots. I don't know. All I know is if Mo had shot what Phil shot they would have scored 74 points (factoring every make a two only).

Lake Mistake lost in HotAtl. La-La Clip-Clip lost in Wind to Male Cows.

Philly has 3 L's in 3 and are 5 L's in their last ten. They're a fading fourth with six games left. BKLYN has five left and are in a three-way tie for eighth--which means a three-way tie for tenth. They better be careful! They're 6-4 in their last 10 while they're tie-mates are 8-2 (Chazz) and 7-3 (Atl). These were the teams involved in the Big Trade, you know? A lot more was expected than this shit. I don't know what Bed Bugs problem is and I don't know why this team can't play D at this fucking time of year. Good grief.

Maybe the Fair-to-Middling Four--Mistake, Rus-Chazz-Atl--don't care? They have no shot of avoiding the play-in and are in no danger of falling out to eleventh. So...what are we fucking playing for, home court ad? Weee! I don't know. BKLYN and La La Lake-Lake are easily the most disappointing teams in the Association this season and at least the "Nyets" have an excuse. "Lakers" have ZERO. They're getting creamed again tonight in Salt.

Half-time in the borough and the Nyets are lookin' better, holding a 60-56 lead over the "Male Deer."

Halfway through the 3rd in Motown Philly is havin' its hands full with those pesky Pisstons, 69-64.

War Day 36, April 1

Beer at Rust. That's a beeg 'un in the Association tonight. Beer is in second place to Miami, even in the loss column and having played two fewer games. This is one of the make-ups. With a win they move within one-half game of the "Heat." For Rust, man oh man. They sit eighth and are closer to tenth than seventh. Once NYC made a vaccine mandate exception for athletes and entertainers I though Rust would be rolling. They did roll all over Miami in a frightening demonstration of their capabilities. But after that Miami Massacre they lost at home to Chazz. Before the Miami game they lost at Memphis. And after the Chazz loss they barely got by worthless Deetroit. They're not playing defense, that's the issue with them. Deetroit shot 48.5% against them, Chazz only shot 42.8% but from range they drilled 53.1%, an amazing stat. Miami was terrible but the Grizz lit them up for 50% behind the arc. You can't let Deetroit shoot 48.5% against you and you can't let any team shoot 50%+ from three against you. I don't know what the problem is. Kyrie is a good defender, no? I think he is. Kevin is the Big but Kevin plays around the line a lot. I didn't expect them to struggle on either end of the court when Kyrie was back. Hell, they were a pre-season favorite to win a championship! I don't understand Brooklyn right now.

LeBron James

Windhorst: LeBron James ‘Wears Team Out’ in Four Years Everywhere He Goes

Dang, that is really weird. Windy said nearly the identical thing about Jimmy Butler two days ago:

“The Jimmy Butler-Erik Spoelstra thing, ya know, Jimmy Butler grinds on his teammates. I mean, he brings a lot to the table. There’s been several organizations that have been like, ‘We are ready for him to be out of here.’ And there’s been organizations where he’s been ready to be out of there. There is not a long history of harmonious marriages there for Jimmy. 

European Energy Crisis

Putin signed an order today that all foreign payments for Russian energy must be made in rubles from accounts opened with Russian banks. To European outrage that the payment regimen is contrary to contracts already signed Putin said in a nationwide address simply, “that is, existing contracts will be stopped.” 😂 I’m sorry but I do find this humorous. The new payment regimen goes into effect tomorrow. If payment is not made in rubles the energy will not be delivered. One-third if Europe’s energy comes from Russia.

 

Russia holds onto positions near Kyiv

Russian troops not withdrawing but regrouping in Ukraine, says Nato

 

L' affaire Putin Misinformed

The Guardian, the Intercept, one of those Glen Greenwald properties published several months ago a purported signed Kremlin document ordering FSB interference in the 2016 election. Corroborating info we already knew or suspected to a reasonable certainty, coming from who it did and how it looked, it seemed the real thing. 

But no one else picked it up.

Then there were skeptical questions. Was there ever really going to be an order reduced to writing and actually signed by Vladimir Putin? Was there anything really new in the substance reported?

Then there was the maladroit tease. The document referred to an appendix that contained all the dirt on Trump but which the document authors deemed too sensitive to include with the document.

It was a little too much. Finally, a WaPo reporter mentioned those question marks and noted that the Greenwald properties reporter was the same guy who had been duped into publishing a previous false story.

L'affaire Putin Misinformed reminded me of that election interference story. Although for at most a couple of hours it was the banner lede in the Times, there was scant other mention of it and what there was for the most part merely cited to or quoted from the Times article. Then no later than 5:55 p.m. the banner was removed.

The immediate sources, John Kirby and Kate Bedingfield are immaculate. But neither of them was the original source. The original source was a declassified document. It seems likely that reporters were given an actual copy of the document but even that is unclear. There was no mention in the reporting when the document was originally composed and, of course, we don't know who the spook was who composed the document or his source or sources.

Then there was the similar but not exact reporting by WaPo and similar but not exact statements by GCHQ.

What was reported?

Putin isolated. Knew that.

The house arrest of Putin's intel chief and deputy. Knew that.

The two-week disappearance of Sergei Shoigu, the Defense Minister, check. That there was "tension" between these two bosom buddies, we could kinda figure that one out our ownselves.

The use of conscripts without Putin's knowledge was reported by the Kremlin in early March.

Putin knew that he had not yet been invited by his Ukrainian hosts to a celebratory fete on their liberation, so he knew that this was maybe taking a little longer than he had expected.  

One new thing only did we learn: that Putin is presently still being misinformed. 

That led to skeptical questions: Like, how is that even conceivable?  Presumably Putin has a TV and can, unlike his prisoner-citizens, turn on the BBC or CNN. Tools of the enemy they may be but even the most ardent opponent (harumm!) of dezinformatsiva might want to take a gander for five minutes or until the next commercial break and during said commercial break might ask Sergei or the other Sergei, the house-arrested Sergei, perhaps his replacement, "How's tricks?"

By mid-evening last night I was questioning the original source, Our Man in the Kremlin. Was he planting false information to make his boss, probably Shoigu, look good? And late last night I actually had the thought, "Was this story an attempt by Putin loyalists in the Kremlin to root out the mole?" You give your main suspect, and only him, one new piece of information. He then passes it on to our spook who forwards it to the Pentagon which declassifies it for Kirby and Bedingfield to make public and voila! You've got your mole.

The declassified report cannot be disproved any more than it can be proved. The New York Times wrote the conclusive addendum to this story last night,

It was not clear whether the release of the declassified intelligence was intended to sow anxiety within Mr. Putin’s circle as part of a broader information battle between the United States and Russia over Ukraine...Nor was it clear if the intelligence was accurate.

That's as clear as it's gonna get.

 

Moscow calls U.S. intelligence on Putin’s military advice a ‘complete misunderstanding.’

“It turns out that neither the State Department nor the Pentagon have real information about what is happening in the Kremlin,” Mr. Peskov told reporters. “They do not understand President Putin, they do not understand the decision-making mechanism and they do not understand the efforts of our work.”
…
…Peskov said the United States was grossly misinformed.

“This is not only unfortunate, but also a cause for concern,” he said.

COVID-19 BIDEN+434 (March 30)

A mini-roundup at this hour. 

Cases are down 12% in the last two weeks.

Hospitalizations are off 33%

Deaths are down a massive 44% to 702 ave/day, lower than the lowest point in the Fall of 2021, lower than anything since the trough in July 2020 after 46-1 gave up and the drastic upturn in the late summer of that year began; lower than anything since the lowest point in the pandemic in early May through mid-August 2021 as, asleep at the wheel as Delta dawned, we allowed Deaths to rise dramatically to 2,109/day on Sept. 22, 2021. No sign of BA.2 rise in the data in any of the three categories.

The present is bright and looks to be getting brighter. March 30 was a full reporting day, also, the first of the week.

FT: Boston 98 Miami 106

The back-and-forth game had very much the intensity of a playoff matchup, featuring nine ties and 16 lead changes.

Miami...opened an 11-point cushion at the start of the third quarter.

The Celtics answered, running off 16 straight points to nudge back in front and eventually carried a 83-79 lead into the fourth.

The "Heat" continue to have these spells They gave up 19 unanswered to Golden States that led to the bench meltdown.

It grew to 90-85 with 7:40 remainin...

But,

The Heat stayed composed and responded with 12-3 spurt to take a 98-93 lead on a short jumper by Butler.

Oh, what a pleasure to read that! Oh! An inspiring performance by Miami. 

The Composer had a full stat line: 14 points in 32' on 5/10 (4/9) shooting, 7 rebbes, 1 ast, 3 steals, 2 blocks, and 2 t.o.'s. He was team high with a +17. Did a little bit of everything.

The man who he replaced, Donut, was the last man off the bench. He had 5 points on 2/5 (1/4) in 15', 1 block, 1 t.o. 

Tyler played starter's minutes, 32', more than starter PJ, and had an excellent, rounded game, 12 pts on 5/14 (2/6), 10 rebbes, second to Bam's 12, 5 asts, 2 t.o.'s. Tyler was involved.

Kyle played 36', scored 23 on 8/16 (6/12)--phenomenal shooting by our PG, and dished 8 asts to only 1 t.o. What a game by Kyle! Whew!

Bam had 17 and 12 in 33' and 8 asts and 2 steals.

Miami shot well, 48.1% (38.2%) and played good D against an explosive "Celtics" team, holding them to 41.2% (29.7%) at home.

As complete a game in as big a game at this stage as could be dreamed of. WHAT a performance by the team and the individual players, all of whom contributed in multiple ways. Man, clap, clap, clap to the "Heat" tonight.

Erik Spoelstra is no stranger to tinkering with his team’s lineups late in a Miami Heat campaign.

No! Not hardly. Before this season, that is. Spo’s feet have been set in concrete all season with Donut in the starting lineup—until these last two games. The Composer has started while Donut has moved to a cushion on the bench.

This is a really informative, analytical article by Naveen Ganglani at https://www.hothothoops.com/platform/amp/2022/3/30/23003936/miami-heat-new-lineup-seems-here-to-stay-max-strus-nba. Have to check that site out more often.

“Heat” Bake Beans!

Full-time in the Hub and Miami gets a HUGE win, 106-98. Heaters took it to ‘em in the 4th 27-15. Wow, what a performance. Boston is now in 4th place in the conference, two games back of Miami. Let’s Go “Heat”!

Russia steps up attacks amid reports of rifts inside Kremlin.

One American official said there was “now persistent tension” between the Russian president and his Defense Ministry. 

…

The intelligence, according to multiple American officials, showed Mr. Putin’s isolation and what appeared to be growing tension between him and the Ministry of Defense, including with his defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin inner circle and had been rumored to be a possible successor one day to Mr. Putin.

…

It was not clear whether the release of the declassified intelligence was intended to sow anxiety within Mr. Putin’s circle as part of a broader information battle between the United States and Russia over Ukraine, the source of the worst tensions between the two nuclear powers since the Cold War. Nor was it clear if the intelligence was accurate.

Oh Quasis, nice. Excellent reporting there. That also reinforces something I forgot, that today’s reporting was based on declassified material, not on Senior Defense Official. How up to date the declassified material is is not given.

Beans 96 “Heat” 97, 3:34 4Q, “Heat” Full TO

No, it's fucking not. The last "Senior Defense Official" transcript is from March 28. Fucking fucking fuck.

U.S. intelligence thinks that Russian President Vladimir Putin feels misled by the Russian military, a U.S. official said in a statement Wednesday...

What do you mean, "thinks"? What the fuck do you mean? WAS HE MISLED OR NOT!
...

In the lead-up to Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence emphasized that Putin was being misled by his close advisers about the feasibility of a multi-front invasion of Ukraine.

That information is part of what led U.S. officials to be so concerned about the possibility of an invasion, because the Biden administration came to believe that Putin was not receiving a full picture of how difficult such a broad military operation would be.

Okay now wait: One, we took this intel before THE FUCKING UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL! WE NEVER SAID at the U.N. that Putin was being misled about feasibility. Putin's U.N. representative DENIED an invasion was in the works. Two, my memory is not perfect but I don't remember any revelation in any forum then that Putin was being misled about feasibility. It was all "We think he's going to"; "He's going to." And feasibility? Blinken told Congress after the invasion began he expected Kyiv to fall "within days." It was damn feasible to Blinken then! Three, why didn't we tell the world AND THEREFORE PUTIN that the invasion was infeasible? THAT would have stopped him or at least paused his ass. "In the lead-up to Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence emphasized that Putin was being misled by his close advisers about the feasibility of a multi-front invasion of Ukraine." We didn't fucking say that, not to anyone, anywhere, anytime BEFORE TODAY.

Okay now what about this: "That information [that Putin was being misled re feasibility] is part of what led U.S. officials to be so concerned about the possibility of an invasion."  Deconstruct: Putin didn't know the intended operation was not feasible. Therefore, we were even more concerned that he would invade. Okay. That makes some sense. Okay and we wouldn't have told him because we didn't want to give him a chance to recalibrate. But...that might have prevented the war! It might have prevented the destruction of so much of Ukraine, saved thousands and thousands of Ukrainian lives, prevented the rapes of Ukrainian women, prevented children from getting killed, prevented the danger of World War III. To me, this is the operative clause: "...the Biden administration came to believe..." They didn't believe that then; only later. Have we EVER told Putin, "You're getting your ass kicked, DO YOU KNOW THAT?" 

Finally, it is clear to me now that our sources inside the Kremlin are extremely high up, probably in the Defense Ministry, maybe the Defense chief himself who supposably had a "heart condition" and went MIA for two weeks, or his right-hand man. Thus, "tension" between him and Putin. But that raises another plausible scenario: that our source(s) are trying to protect themselves; that is, that this might not be true. A couple of weeks ago there was an article, I think in NYT, some American guy in a position to know told the Quasis that we were looking very closely for any cracks in Kremlin leadership and so far (at that time) were not seeing any. 

How to understand all this? I don't know but I am 50%+1 convinced that the New York Times did not remove their banner headline because of the press of other news.

“Putin didn’t even know his military was using and losing conscripts in Ukraine, showing a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian President,” the U.S. official said in the statement, speaking on the condition of anonymity under rules set by the Biden administration.

Okay, you know what, this is going to be in that Senior Defense Official transcript from today. I'm going to check that out and if so copy and paste the whole thing in another post. I want to know exactly what this motherfucker said.

 

 

 

 

Now that banner headline has been removed, replaced by no banner headline. An hour and 10 mins after I first saw it it's been downgraded. (?)

 

What?

The unveiling of U.S. intelligence that Putin has been misinformed is part of a monthslong U.S. campaign.

The declassification of U.S. intelligence assessment suggesting that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had been misinformed about his military force’s struggles in Ukraine is part of a monthslong campaign of information warfare by the Biden administration.

Not disinformation.

The effort began before the invasion, with the systematic release of classified information designed to disrupt Russia’s attempts to create false pretexts for an invasion by revealing Mr. Putin’s tactics.

Okay, now I understand.

White House officials said on Wednesday that they released the intelligence about the Russian leader being misinformed so that there could be a “full understanding” of how Putin has miscalculated.

Well, I'll tell you what, there ought to be a Nobel Prize for Spookery. This has just been pleasantly shocking. I joked one time that we have a recording device in Putin's mouth.
...

Ms. [Kate] Bedingfield [White House communications director] declined to say what the White House hoped to accomplish with the release of the intelligence, 

"Hoped to accomplish?" Isn't a "full understanding" an accomplishment?

which also suggests that Putin is now in a state of tension with his top military officials. ...it helps to bolster the public relations case...

There they go again, why do they keep making it sound like a propaganda campaign, "building a case," "public relations case"? Does the New York Times doubt this information, that is what I want to know.

...that administration officials have been making for days, which is that the war has been a catastrophic mistake for Mr. Putin.“Putting forward this information simply contributes to a sense that this has been a strategic error for them,” Ms. Bedingfield said.

 

What American intelligence sources there might be in the Kremlin is a tightly held secret.
But since Russia began its troop buildup along Ukraine’s borders last year, U.S. intelligence
officials have accurately predicted Mr. Putin’s moves.

I know, RIGHT?! Our intel is fucking unbelievable.

Oh Wait: Not "Was" Misformed; "Has Been", "IS" Misinformed About Russia's Military Losses (!)

 

Putin’s misinformed on Ukraine.

...

American officials said that Putin’s strict isolation during the pandemic and willingness to publicly castigate advisers had contributed to him getting incomplete or overly optimistic reports about the progress of Russian forces, apparently leaving him genuinely unaware that the Russian military had been using conscripts in Ukraine or that drafted soldiers were among those killed in action. 

...

WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military’s struggles in Ukraine, according to declassified U.S. intelligence.

The intelligence, according to multiple U.S. officials, shows what appears to be growing tension between Mr. Putin and the Ministry of Defense, including with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle.

Speaking in Algiers, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken acknowledged Mr. Putin had been given less than truthful information from his advisers.
...

In a news conference on Wednesday afternoon, a Pentagon spokesman, John F. Kirby, said that the Defense Department believed that Mr. Putin has not had access to an accurate account of his army’s failures in Ukraine.

“We would concur with the conclusion that Mr. Putin has not been fully informed by his Ministry of Defense, at every turn over the last month,” Mr. Kirby said.

“If Mr. Putin is misinformed or uninformed about what’s going on inside Ukraine, it’s his military, it’s his war, he chose it,” Mr. Kirby said. “And so the fact that...he may not fully understand the degree to which his forces are failing in Ukraine, that’s a little discomforting, to be honest with you.”

Both points are true. The most important thing is that Ukraine is, like, an independent country. Putin knew that. He knew that he invaded an independent country. It is, I would say, very "discomforting" that he didn't know his army was getting shot up.
...

Putin seemed genuinely unaware that the Russian military had been using conscripts in Ukraine, and that drafted soldiers were among those killed in action, according to the U.S. officials. Mr. Putin’s ignorance showed “a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian president,” according to a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the declassified, but still sensitive, material. There “is now persistent tension” between Mr. Putin and the Defense Ministry, the official said.

The American intelligence assessment also said that Putin had an incomplete understanding about how damaging Western sanctions had been on the Russian economy, officials said. 

This is shocking, absolutely shocking. All of it.

With evidence of Mr. Putin’s frustration growing, the United States has in recent weeks been building up an intelligence case that he had not been getting accurate assessments from the Ministry of Defense and other senior officials.

What does that mean, "been building up an intelligence case"? It suggests they're making a case on some intel while ignoring other.

 The U.S. officials believe that Mr. Putin is continuing to be misled and that senior advisers are unwilling to tell the truth.

I am growing a little skeptical of this. Do you mean to tell me that Vladimir Putin does not have access to the BBC, to The Times of London, the New York Times, CNN, even Fox? Does he not have a fucking TV?

...
Russian forces announced a shift in their posture around Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, on Tuesday...It is...possible that the shifting strategy is a sign of dysfunction and miscommunication in the upper ranks of the Russian Defense Ministry.

Blue Stocking Final Four

Holy mackerel, I didn't realize that the quarter-finals gave us a blue stocking, blue blood, all blue Final Four Saturday. Two-seed Villanova is matched up with No. 1 Kansas in the early game followed by...eight-seed North Carolina and No. 2 Duke, a Tobacco Road semi-final. All of the four schools have won multiple national championships previously. My oh my. Thinks shook out perfectly.

 Putin demands Mariupol surrender; Ukraine accuses Russia of attacking Red Cross

 

 

You'll never be disappointed by being disappointed in a Russian.

“Lakers” Fall Out of Play-In

The loss last night in Dallas leaves them 11th in the West. That’s three straight, four of the last five, seven of the last nine—all L’s.

 

I usually let a good portion of my betters writing stand untainted by my unlearned commentary at the top of excerpts. I usually interject after they have gotten on their roll or at the end. Here, with Bret Stephens' column, I taint from above. There is the whiff of Roger Cohen paranoia in Stephens' writing. Cohen was traumatized by his grandfather having to sleep under his bed in Lithuania from fear of Russia. Stephens had some evil epiphany reading a colleague's account of the Chechen wars. Putin is smarter the dumber he appears because we are yet dumber; more avaricious the less he appears to be. The glass is more full the more empty it appears. Stephens concludes, "This...analysis...could be wrong" but "it’s always wiser to treat your adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool." Caution is a useful byword, yes. I think the Americans have been cautious about this latest withdrawal b.s. But wiser still than caution is being right in assessments and judgment and American intelligence has been uncannily right about Russia all along. 

The second sentence below, "What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?," is wrong. However crafty, Putin does not have the West "playing into his hands." But let's interrogate that question further. Playing into another's hands means that the other wanted the response from the person played that he got, that the player lured the played in. So Putin's hidden hand strategy would have been to unite NATO, unite the whole West to impose crushing sanctions, and unite virtually the entire world against him. "If" the West is "playing into Putin's hands" by arming Ukraine, by unprecedented unity and devastating sanctions, what would the Western response have been that did not play into Putin's hands?

As a good Times journalist Stephens taps an xpert, a Canadian, on energy, in support of his "alternative" thesis. The whole Putin-premeditated Russia as OPEC-on-the-Don extravagance is wildly implausible. The war is merely cover for an energy "heist"? Europe, owing to its insouciance, is so dependent on Russian energy as is that seizing Ukraine's stores increases that dependency, what, (I really don't know.) from 50% in Germany to 75%? So Putin's real aim is to cut off the gas to Europe? Well, he ain't gonna succeed. 

They don't want Kyiv? Sure fooled us (to which Stephens would respond with a contemptuous, knowing nod). If Putin has changed ambitions it was not part of an elaborate feint. It is because the Russian army has proved a Potemkin force and, for now, Kyiv has been fortified into an urban Russian meat processing and grinding factory. 

"Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes." Do tell! It was part of Putin's political calculus all along that ordinary Russians would queue up at banks in desperation to withdraw their money, that young elites would flee the country en masse? That the ruble would be ground into rubble? That the economy as a whole would enter a time machine and land back in 1998? That the crushing sanctions are "playing into Putin's hands"? "Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions." Note the weasel words "could" and "eventually". Longgg game that crafty Russian fox is playing lol.

There are some parts of Stephens' alternative reality show that are almost certainly correct, this in particular: "When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean."  One can never go wrong attributing the worst to a Russian. I haven't the foggiest idea why Putin has not yet used biochem wmd on the cities, as he did in Syria. But even that must come with a caveat.Stephens paints with too broad a brush in using the phrase "Western military analysts." Certainly American officials have warned of the the threat of biochem wmd repeatedly. The West's response to biochem was in fact the reason for the extraordinary, no-cell-phones-allowed meeting between Biden and Western leaders on his European trip. The gravamen of Stephens' point however survives. Russia absolutely can win this war, almost certainly will win this war, if Putin is willing to let it all hang out, and, as Stephens asks rhetorically, "Since when has Putin ever played clean?"

I think there is also too much truth in this:  "the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelensky to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons." At least the first part. I have never thought it a good idea for Volo to negotiate. Initially, I feared a personal trap. They would kidnap and disappear him. That is also a concern of Ukraine's negotiating team who have instructions not to drink or eat anything on these trips (presumably they will bring box lunches) (I hope)). But I have always had a more general concern, that the Ukrainian negotiators are callow and no match for Sergei Lavrov. The statement released yesterday by the Ukraine Foreign Ministry that its negotiators had put forward a proposal that, inter alia, guaranteed Ukraine's future security by the U.S. and others, was reckless and irresponsible. We must be clear to Volo: We have not Munich'd you, we are not going to Munich you. You negotiate with your own interests foremost and exclusively. However do not involve the U.S. or more broadly NATO or the West in your negotiation proposals! Ukraine is not a member of the EU and has no business roping EU countries into security guarantees; Ukraine is not a member of NATO and Macron and Biden have been resolute that you will not be. Ukraine is not protected by Article 5 of the NATO charter and those nations which are will be goddamned if you are going to drag us into World War III with Russia. So cut the shit, Volo.

Taken as a whole Stephens' "alternative analysis of Putin’s performance [is clearly and convincingly] wrong." Go ahead, Bret:

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?

The possibility is suggested in a powerful reminiscence from The Times’s Carlotta Gall of her experience covering Russia’s siege of Grozny, during the first Chechen war in the mid-1990s. In the early phases of the war, motivated Chechen fighters wiped out a Russian armored brigade, stunning Moscow. The Russians regrouped and wiped out Grozny from afar, using artillery and air power.

Russia’s operating from the same playbook today. When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?

“There is a whole next stage to the Putin playbook, which is well known to the Chechens,” Gall writes. “As Russian troops gained control on the ground in Chechnya, they crushed any further dissent with arrests and filtration camps and by turning and empowering local protégés and collaborators.”

Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.

If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be.

It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians. More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russian troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelensky to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons.

Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions.

This alternative analysis of Putin’s performance could be wrong. Then again, in war, politics and life, it’s always wiser to treat your adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.

Former Swine Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich, who was not poisoned was present for the faux peace talks yesterday in Istanbul!. Front row seat though just an observer. NYT:

He has been sanctioned by the British government — but, curiously, not the United States — for ties with Putin, who started the war.

Curiouser and curiouser.

Rus Ruse

 

That's Russia! They deserve every bad thing that ever happens to them.

Well, well, well, the defending champions did come back against Philly and broke the tie for second place. Beer outscored Phil 37-27 in the 4th Q to edge the "76'er's" 118-116. Sounds like a dumhinger of a game.

Rust also came back from a HT deficit to avoid a shock home lost to Deetroit by the none-too-convincing score of 130-123. I understand that the letter "d" nowhere appears in the name "Brooklyn 'Nets'" but you have to play some even against Deetroit if you don't want to get marooned in Middlesbrough.

Just one guy's opinion here. I have alluded to this once before, Peskov mentioned it yesterday, Lavro stated it in a speech that was actually painful for me to read--I believe, only to a level of 50%+1 that what Vladimir Putin, Lavrov, and maybe Dmitri Medvedev, feel so acutely right now is loss of personal standing. The entire world has condemned them, do you realize that? The votes in the U.N. have been something like 141-3 with 38 abstentions. The Western alliance that Putin in his insouciance was sure would crack is an Iron Curtain, this time not descending over all of Europe but a European Iron Curtain descending over all of Russia. 

It used to be, it's time for anecdotes now, that Russia and Putin were courted. John Kerry practically locked poor Sergei up in a room with him (but for fucking bi-hourly walks together) to work out the Iran sanctions deal. We treated Lavrov as a co-equal. What did Peskov say yesterday? "We said, guys, we want to be treated as equals. No response." Hillary Clinton before Kerry called Lavrov up on Libya. She wanted Lavrov to have Russia abstain at the U.N. Security Council rather than veto. "C'mon Sergei, you can do this. The Arab League is with us." Okay grumbled Lavrov--and you know he grumbled.

It was flattering. Who doesn't like to have their opinion solicited, their support solicited, by the most prestigious nation on the planet? Who amongst us doesn't like to be courted?

There was a time, hell, just two years ago, when the President of the United States of America looked up to the president of Russia! There's a first for everything.

There was a time when the president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, shared burgers at a D.C. hamburger joint with "Barack." (Medvedev's dancing partner now is on a restricted diet of Chinese and North Korean cuisine.)

"Once," Putin himself wrote in a WaPo op-ed, "we were allies." Now he, his regime, and his country are pariahs.

Up until January of this year Putin was viewed around the world as the Grand Master of realpolitik international chess. Joe Biden was viewed as his fool and his foil. (Putin "badly miscalculated." HOOO doggie!)

There was a time, at the time of creation,...painful moment, when a senior Russian official told his American counterpart "We want to be like you!" They wanted to be part of the cool crowd.

Putin asked Bill Clinton what he thought of NATO membership for Russia.

We got them membership in the world's most exclusive club, the G-7. For awhile it was the G-8 or G-7+1, I forget, but Russia was in. 

Then, I forget if it was Georgia, no I think that's too far back, it must have been Crimea, there is this painful photograph of Putin attending his last G-20 summit (they got kicked out of the G-8) and walking past a seated row of his fellow club members, the British P.M., Cameron I think, the Australian P.M., the Japanese guy, Obama, "all the best people" and trying to make familiar eye contact with them and suffering the inverted gazes of each and every one of them.

The last 20 years have been personally humiliating for Putin.

Last anecdote: Lavrov gave a speech, not too many years ago, I don't remember specifically the reason for this one snit--Obama could not abide Putin, it was like fingernails on a blackboard for Obama to even talk to the guy--it could have been Obama's remark that Russia was merely a "regional power",or Obama's--accurate!-captioning of the uncomfortable photo of the two of them seated together, Putin sitting there "like a spoiled child" (drove Putin up the WALL), or Obama's remark that Russia "makes nothing that we want to buy." There were so many occasions that could have given rise to Lavrov's poignant speech (I read the whole thing) in which he said: "We want to be respected for our intelligence." *wince*

Lavrov was right to thing that we don't respect the intelligence of Russians. Peskov was right that we never considered Russia the equal of ourselves. It is all true.

So, I'm connecting dots sure, I'm no xpert...Just on a human (or anthropoidal) level, each of us has encountered rejection, what if everyone you know all at once turned their backs on you? Wouldn't even look you in the eye? I detect shame, mortification in the Kremlin. Putin's spokesman's reaction to Biden's remark in Warsaw was, to me not measured but dispirited. They are in great pain, and it's personal, And. It. Is. All. Their. Fault. Enjoy your eternity in Apartheid Town Vladimir, Sergei, Dmitry, the rest of you with bones in your brains. You deserve the eternal opprobrium of the world. You will live in infamy forever, the very name "Russia" cojoined for eternity with "Trump," "human waste," synonymous with "anthropoid," stand-in for "war crimes", for "barbarism", "the slaughter of innocents," "the rape of women in war", of those peoples and states who have been weighed and measured and examined and found wanting, set aside and discarded. Those are what it means since 1917 to be called "Russian."

Wail...It's only HT but the execrable Deetroit "Pistons" are leading the "Nets" in Rust 64-58. BKLYN is a strange team. Bed Bugs is back. He was back Sunday. And shot 6/22 in an upset loss to the Buzz, also in Rust. Now, Deetroit? They will probably win but they lost to Chazz last time out; before that game they raped and pillaged the "Heat" in the Bus. And before that, on the 22nd, they lost at FedEx in a game Bugs had 43. Good team the Grizz. Good team was the "Heat". Mediocre team Chazz. Godawful team Deetroit. Losing, lost, won, lost, all with Bugs, all on a full team still in the play-in with a lot to play for. Strange team.

Beer is making a run at the 7-foot-Sixers. It was 89-81 Phil after 3 in Phil. Beer 10-4 in the 4th so far, 93-91.

Jimmy Butler

Brian Windhorst:

“The Jimmy Butler-Erik Spoelstra thing, ya know, Jimmy Butler grinds on his teammates. I mean, he brings a lot to the table. There’s been several organizations that have been like, ‘We are ready for him to be out of here.’ And there’s been organizations where he’s been ready to be out of there. There is not a long history of harmonious marriages there for Jimmy. So, when I’m seeing Spoelstra and I’m seeing Spoelstra saying to him, and I know it’s heat of the moment, ‘I always knew you were crazy.’  [When did Spo say that?]  I think he’s speaking from his heart there, I think he does mean that. So I wonder, not only about this season, I wonder about Jimmy Butler long term in Miami, especially since he’s right on the edge there where his age and he’s been banged up a little bit, I just, I wonder about that.”

War Day 34, March 30, Ukraine

10m ago 15:59

"No-one should be fooled" by Russia's pulling back of troops around Kyiv- White House

The White House has warned its allies that: “No-one should be fooled by Russia’s announcements” about reducing its military presence around the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. and that it was important to be “clear-eyed about the reality of what is happening on the ground”, Agence France-Presse reports.

Any movement of Russian forces around Kyiv is a “redeployment and not a withdrawal,” White House director of communications Kate Bedingfield said in Washington at a briefing moments ago.

The comments echoed those coming from the Pentagon just prior, warning that Kyiv “remains under threat”.

"We’re seeing a small number now that appears to be moving away from Kyiv, this on the same day that the Russians say they’re withdrawing,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said just earlier.

“But we’re not prepared to call this a retreat or even a withdrawal. We think that what they probably have in mind is a repositioning to prioritize elsewhere.”

“We all should be prepared to watch for a major offensive against other areas of Ukraine. It does not mean that the threat to Kyiv is over.

“Russia has failed in its objective of capturing Kiev,” the Pentagon spokesman said, but “they can still inflict massive brutality on the country including on Kyiv.”

 

 

That does sound more like the Russia we know and hate. Putin's really just going to go quietly?

Time Out

What does our intelligence, what do you dear viewpagers, make of this Russian pullback? There has also been a lull the last few days. What's going on?

Oh hell, got something in my eyes now.

ukrainianssaythankyou.com 

I Love this Guy

                                                 "How many kneecaps one Rooski really need?"

 

 

Mr. Kasparov adds an important codicil to the general rule. If the war ends in an agreement between Ukraine and Russia we cannot lift sanctions, cannot reintegrate Russia and start anew. Putin "cannot remain in power." That is the Kasparov codicil with which I agree. I would go further and add a codicil to the codicil. We should continue imposing apartheid on the Russian state if, e.g., Medvedev resumes the pas de deux and become president again. We should continue with state apartheid if Lavrov becomes president. How far should we go beyond those two? To state plainly Russian elites and the Russian people have a choice: apartheid and a 1998 economy or regime change. What are our conditions, free and fair elections? I don't know the answer to either question but it ain't gonna be Medvedev or Lavrov that ends apartheid.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Lose Tonight for Miami

 

 

   

Михайло Подоляк

@Podolyak_M

Briefly. Security guarantees treaty with an enhanced analogue of Article 5 of NATO. 

Guarantor states (USA, UK, Turkey, France, Germany etc.) legally actively involved in protecting  

from any aggression. Implementation through a referendum & parliaments of the guarantor states.

8:30 AM · Mar 29, 2022·Twitter Web App

Russia says it will ‘drastically reduce military activity’ around Kyiv and Chernihiv

 

President Biden today:

“I wasn’t then nor am I now articulating a policy change. I was expressing moral outrage that I felt and I make no apologies.  “[I am] not walking anything back." Asked whether the remark would spur a negative response from Putin, Biden said: “I don’t care what he thinks ... He’s going to do what he’s going to do." 

You see, Dmitry Peskov? We don't care what your master thinks. Carry on and don't be calm.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had things to say tonight:

Unfortunately, those conditions [sanctions], they are quite unfriendly. And they are enemy, enemy-like for us. We entered the phase, the phase of a total war. And we in Russia, we will feel ourselves amongst war, because Western European countries, United States, Canada, Australia, they actually — they actually — they are leading war against us in trade, in economy, in seizing our properties, in seizing our funds, in blocking our financial relations. 

 

Dmitry, old chap, don't open your mouth so much because you don't look handsome when you do it. The sanctions are enemy-like D-Pesk because you are the enemy. You didn't invade Ukraine, and President Biden told your master exactly what would happen if he didn't invade Ukraine, you didn't and now you have no one in the real world, which I understand is not your world, to blame but yourselves. It is an economic WAR against your Anthropoid state Pesky and we will, we, the word I'm looking for is crush, we will crush you, hit you so hard you'll wake up in 1998, if you wake up at all!

And we have to adapt ourselves to new reality. You have to understand Russia. You have to understand Russia.” 

 

Peskov, you're a gas station with nukes, that's a complete understanding of you. You with your unevolved brains have to understand the West: You are not getting away with not invading Ukraine. What did you not understand about that?

Referencing Russia’s ongoing tension with Nato, Peskov said:

For a couple of decades, we were telling the collective west that we are afraid of your Nato’s moving eastwards. We too are afraid of Nato getting closer to our borders with its military infrastructure. Please take care of that. Don’t push us into the corner. No. 

 

Oh stop, wouldja? No, you won't. You and your anthropoid country have more fears and phobia. How many times, Peskov, has NATO invaded your Gas Station? "We're afraid,'' "we're afraid," lay down and take a shot of vodka. No, we won't "please take care of that"! Yes, we will "push you into the corner" you have drawn around your Gas Station with your brushes of fear and paranoia and mental defects. "No." YES! Peskov, get this through your head: we hate you, the best you can hope for is a Gas Station on an island. State apartheid. We will never deal with you again, not trade, not talk, not negotiate. And if you want war, real nuclear war with the West, will are ready. It will just take one step by you to get you there, we're not going to tell you what it is, but just one more step and all of your disgusting land and anthropoidal occupants will be an Exclusion Zone where the non-human fauna will flourish and you, the anthropoids, will be lucky to grow tumors that may actually enlarge your brains.

Now we said, listen, guys, we are not happy with this coup in Ukraine. And you have guarantees by Poland, by France and by Germany. You would probably remember the document with the signatures of the relevant foreign ministers. No reaction. 

Have it your way, Peskov, we couped Ukraine and you didn't invade Ukraine. You knew the consequences. Just one little step further, Peskov, and you will have all of your fears realized.

Then, we said, listen, guys, we’re not happy with the possibility of Ukraine’s getting into Nato, because it will endanger us additionally, and it will ruin the balance of mutual deterrence in Europe. No reaction. 

 

Right, no reaction. Oh! Well, Ukraine did become a NATO member, that's right.

Then we said, listen, guys, we want equal relationship. We want to take into account each other’s concerns. If you don’t into account our concerns, then we will be a little bit nervous. No reaction completely.” 

 

No, you're not going to have an equal relationship, that would require lobotomizing our population except in Alabama. No, we didn't take your concerns into account, we invaded you. Repeatedly over 30 years we, NATO, the West invaded you. Yes, we understand that made you a little bit nervous, and yes, you got no reaction from us other than continual invasions of your Gas Station.

 

Anything else, Dmitry, or are you done? We look forward to the first nuclear exchange.

FT MIA 123 SAC 100

Yep, the Heaters got to feel good about theyselves at the expense of Sactown tonight. I thought you'd get a kick of out this from two years ago:

The Duncan Robinson effect is real for the Miami Heat

He had a GREAT effect then, always has had when he's Swish but the effect has worn off a LOT since he became Donut, and tonight for the first time in gosh, maybe since two years ago, Erik My-Feet-Are-In-Concrete Spoelstra, subbed for him in the starting lineup when he had neither injury to or absence of others, just rain, sleet, hail, and clanks as his reason. There must really be some hex on the shooting guard position for Miami. The Composer was a Donut-like 3/12 (2/9) for a measly 8 points in 30' of p.t. in a blow-out (everybody but Vic and Markieff played). Duncan in only 5' less was Swish again, 5/8 (5/8) for 15 points.

With six games left Miami has 48 wins, two away from the Association regular season gold standard, but it's gonna be a close thing. Four of the six are on the road, the only freebie is the last game of the season at Disney. Between now and then we have 4-seed Beans (8-2 in their last 10) Wednesday night up there, No. 5 Male Cows in Firetown, April 2, the next night, at No. 6 Toronto, on the 5th No. 9 Chazz in the Bus, and April 8 the Pigeons of Hotlanta down here. Chazz did us a favor beating the "Nets" in BKLYN last night and Tonto, Denver and the Dolans did us favors tonight knocking off Beans, Buzz and "Bulls" respectively. Miami now in sole possession of first place but only by 1 little peepy game ahead of two-through-four Phil, Male Deer and Beans. If the season ended now and the play-in played out as expected for the play-offs, Miami would face BKLYN in the first round and would get swept fo' straight. And that would break up this broken team in the off season.

64-45, 10:11 3Q

Innteresting. Spo didn't start Donut. Started the Composer instead. Maybe anybody you put in that starting shooting guard slot is going to suck. The Composer is 1/5 for 2 points in 15'; Donut is 2/3 for 6 in 11.

HT MIA 57 SAC 41

I was going to say, "Miami will win this one." If they don't beat SacTown Spo oughtta run out of the bus and clean out of town. Now...there is recent precedent for the vaunted SECOND HALF COLLAPSE lol.

In re Abramovich, et al.

...a US official told Reuters on Monday evening the evidence did not point to poisoning....“The intelligence highly suggests this was environmental,” the official told Reuters, adding: “Eg, not poisoning.”🤷

Wow. That's a major fuck-up by Bellingcat and Wally.

 

What a great photo.

Zelensky also said in his nightly address that Russian troops control the region north of Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, and that they still have resources and manpower. “The situation everywhere remains tense,” Mr. Zelensky said. “This is a ruthless war.”

March 28, 2022, 6:27 p.m. ET12 minutes ago

12 minutes ago

Jesus Jimenez

In an address late Monday, Zelensky clarified reports that Irpin had been liberated. “The occupiers are pushed away from Irpin,” Mr. Zelensky said in a translation of his remarks shared by his office. “However, it is too early to talk about security in this part of our region.”

Okay, that is different from earlier. 

 

Oh!

A video analyzed by The Times shows soldiers who are likely Ukrainian beating and shooting prisoners from the Russian military. The footage shows five of the prisoners tied up and lying on the ground. Three other captives are shot in their legs. The incident raised questions about whether the Geneva Conventions, which set out the rules for the humane treatment of prisoners of war, had been violated.

Oh boy, not good, not good 'tall.

That is under the Biden non-story in "other major developments." Oh my God, fourth estaters, get some proportion, wouldja? Jesus Christ.

Are we done now?

 I can't believe that this has still got legs, much less that it's the banner headline.

 

 

President Biden on Monday stood by his comment that Vladimir V. Putin should be removed as president of Russia, but said it was a personal expression of his outrage and not a change in American policy aimed at seeking to topple Mr. Putin from office.

“I was expressing the moral outrage I felt toward this man,” Mr. Biden told reporters, rejecting criticism that he misspoke. He said no one should have thought his comments were meant to be calling for Mr. Putin’s ouster.

War Day 33, March 29, Ukraine

New York, New York!

‘High-Rise Hell’: N.Y.C. Skyscraper’s Elevator Breakdowns Strand Tenants

A luxury residential building in Manhattan with more than 750 apartments has been experiencing lengthy elevator outages since the fall.

Ukrainian forces have seized back full control of the town of Irpin, a few miles from Kyiv, the local mayor said. Mayor Oleksandr Markushyn said Irpin had been “liberated” and that Russian soldiers were “offering to surrender”. The United States cannot confirm who is in control of the city of Irpin, a senior US defence official said.  

Be respectful and capitalize his name, please. It's Senior Defense Official. Thank you. Damn limeys.

I'm confused. Are we violating the proposed neutrality of Ukraine by arming them?

 

                                          "We fight to the death! Glory to Ukraine!"

 

 

 On other hand, "security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it. This is the most important point."

Now that Russia has control of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone this Wikipedia entry on the "Red Forest" there takes on immediate significance:

Scientists are planning to use the nearby radioactive and abandoned town of Pripyat, and surrounding area, as a unique laboratory for modelling the dispersal of radionuclides by the detonation of a dirty bomb or an attack with chemical or biological agents. The area offers an unparalleled opportunity to fully understand the passage of radioactive debris through an urban and rural area.^[9]

Federal Judge Finds Trump Likely Committed Crimes Over 2020 Election

 “The illegality of the plan was obvious,” the judge wrote in a civil case...

WASHINGTON — A federal judge ruled on Monday that former President Donald J. Trump and a lawyer who advised him on how to overturn the 2020 election most likely committed felonies, including obstructing the work of Congress and conspiring to defraud the United States.

The judge’s comments marked a significant breakthrough for the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, which had laid out in a civil filing the crimes it believed Mr. Trump might have committed as it weighs making a criminal referral to the Justice Department.

“The illegality of the plan was obvious,” wrote Judge David O. Carter of the Central District of California. “Our nation was founded on the peaceful transition of power, epitomized by George Washington laying down his sword to make way for democratic elections. Ignoring this history, President Trump vigorously campaigned for the vice president to single-handedly determine the results of the 2020 election.”

Judge Carter’s comments came in an order for John Eastman, a conservative lawyer who wrote a memo that members of both parties have likened to a blueprint for a coup, to turn over more than 100 emails to the committee as it investigates Mr. Trump’s efforts to hold onto power after his election loss.
...
Eastman had filed suit against the [Jan. 6] panel, trying to persuade a judge to block the committee’s subpoena for documents in his possession. As part of the suit, Eastman sought to shield from release documents he said were covered by attorney-client privilege.

In response, the committee argued — under the legal theory known as the crime-fraud exception — that the privilege did not cover information conveyed from a client to a lawyer if it was part of furthering or concealing a crime.
...
...Judge Carter, who was nominated by President Bill Clinton, agreed, writing that he believed it was “likely” that the men not only conspired to defraud the United States but “dishonestly conspired to obstruct the joint session of Congress on Jan. 6, 2021.”

“President Trump and Dr. Eastman justified the plan with allegations of election fraud,” he wrote, “but President Trump likely knew the justification was baseless, and therefore that the entire plan was unlawful.”