Wednesday, March 31, 2021

FT Indianoplace 87 Miami "Streak" 92

Second W in a row for the "Streakers." Over they who ruined a weekend a couple ago. Miami's playing defense again. Indians shot only 40%. "Streak" still not playing much offense, 41% shooting. Where the fuck is Victor Oladipo? Spo said he'd play tonight but he didn't and the reason given in the box score is the same it has been since the trade, "Not with team." Trevor Ariza did play, for some reason, started again for the same unknown reason as he scored another two points on 1/7 shooting. Duncan was game-high with 20 and did shoot well, 7/12 (6/11). Jimmy and Bam were relatively quiet, 18 (614 (0/2), 5, 4, 2, 1, 2 TO's. Bam 16 (4/10, 8, 7, 1, 2, 2 TO's. Tyler was again last man off the bench but played starter's minutes, 32, and scored 17 on 6/13 (26), and 3, 2,0, 1, and 0 TO's. Everybody on the available roster played except Max Straus, a DNPCD. It's a weird-looking box score but the W result is pleasing to the eye. "Streak" back to .500, 24-24, and now fifth in the East.

“One of the weirdest interviews I’VE ever conducted” lolol


I have never watched Carlson so don’t know his personal facial expressions...But lol there is a universal “What on earth is this man talking about?” face


that Carlson maintains through this entire 8’ clip, which includes among the bizarre 1) “You had false sex allegations made against you.” “Yeah, by a mentally ill person 20 years ago.” 2) "I had dinner with you and your wife two years ago. You’ll remember the woman I was with.” “Actually I don’t. Neither the context or the woman.” 3) “Photos of me with child prostitutes—obviously false.” (Nobody, including Carlson, knew anything about that allegation, but thanks for bringing it up! Lolol) 4) David McGee, a Florida attorney, is behind the “attempted extortion of me and my family for $25M to “make these false allegations go away." (Ditto, say what? What extortion?) 5) The alleged underage girl "doesn't exist,"--in the sense that he never had six with a minor. 6) "I have traveled with a 17 year-old woman--that is verifiably false. Just look at my travel records." (Separate flights?) 7) “There is nothing wrong with providing air travel and lodging for people who you’re dating who are of age.” ( So you DID pay for interstate transport of women, plural, for sexual purposes, just not underage girls. Define "date." Isn't "pay to play" (a phrase Gaetz uses) a euphemism for prostitution?

And Matt, while you're at "clarifying": You have had living with you since he was 12 years old, a male Cuban immigrant, now 19 years old, who you have identified by name, Nestor Galban. What exactly is the relationship there? 

1) Nestor is somebody you “met while dating his sister” (?!) (How old was she, Matt? 18+, I assume. Should I assume that, Matt?) ; 

2) Nestor is, “My son” [“is a college freshman.”]. DID YOU KNOCK THAT YOUNG CUBAN IMMIGRANT GIRL?!  No, Nestor is not Matt's love child; 

3) then, He's “my adopted son”;

4) minus the formal, like legal, adoption paperwork

5) then that you “feel like a single step-parent at times” to Nestor. Other times?; 

6) then “We share no blood” (nor any, like, legal “paperwork” 

7) who nonetheless, “is my life,” “the light of my life,” who you “couldn't imagine loving...any more if he was my own flesh and blood.” 

Matt has exhausted all of the possible labels I can think of, except one, that would clarify his relationship with Nestor. So for completeness only Matt, have you ever had a sexual relationship with Nestor?

Do you have any other children you met while dating their sisters, Matt?

Good morning cheap suits

Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Shit, the “Heat” won a game of basketball last night and I didn’t even notice. Beat a team with a better record than them too, the New York “Dolans”, in the Medium-Sized Apple to boot. Erik Spoelstra “followed” Pat Riley’s orders to “use,” “not experiment,” use the new trade guys. Sorta. Victor Olidipo is still not with the team, for some reason. Trevor Ariza played 27’, for all the good that did, tyu pernts on 1/7 (0/3), 4 ‘bounds, 1 aasist, one steal. I “used” Nemanja Belijica if you say 5’ is use which you don’t. The starters other than Ariza were the usual, Jimmy, Bam, the 🐉, and Duncan. Tyler was the last guy off the bench and still played starter’s minutes, 34’, with 18 points. Goran is still in a shooting slump and now he’s not shooting much, only 4 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists with 4 TO’s. Not a flattering stat line. It was Jimmy and Bam, the former 27 points, the latter 20 points and 18 boards. Duncan had 24 points on 4/10 (4/9). Miami now 23-24 and residing on SE 8th St in Middlesbrough.

COVID-19 BIDEN+68*

*Updated. Quasi's, why do I have to fucking update a post published at 7:49 pm(!) because you change your stats? What is going on at your COVID desk? Your numbers obviously are not reliable. Why do you publish preliminary numbers at all? Why not just print them when the fucking day's done? Fucking idjits. 

Folks, I don't know what I'm going to do. Longtimers will remember I used to use three sources, WaPo, Hopkins, and the Times. Sounded like three Reliables to me! Then, I forget why,—Oh, I remember, they had one of those ginormous data spikes with no explanation. I went to the Times and the Johnnies and there was an explanation, a data dump by some state— and I lost faith in WaPo. I used the Times for all but the dailies, which I based on the Johnnies, because I didn’t like the Johnnies 5-day trends. I knew by that time that there were two days of reporting lag every week so it made no sense to use a 5-day when I could a 7-day. I finally ditched the Johnnies because I didn’t like using a different database for only one metric. But I have increasingly questioned the Times' numbers, calling them out as "bullshit" repeatedly, as I did again tonight. Second screed for the day.

So, I went back to the New York Times to read their exclusive on Grand Old Predator Gaetz and noticed their COVID box. Cases +18%. Didn't I just...So I got on Ye Olde Publocc and...Yes, I did, I posted Cases were +19%, which percentage I took directly from the Quasi-Official New York Times at the ungodly early hour of 7:49 pm...Oh my God, now (9:47 pm) I see that they changed their 7-day average for Cases, too, lowering it...And (9:50 pm)--I give up--the daily Cases number, raising it 600. I've made the changes below.


7:49 pm:


As you can see that is a pretty steep rise there.


14-day changes

And statistically Cases are +19% +18% (9:29 pm) over where they were a fortnight ago.
-4% Hospitalizations. H's have not been + yet, which pleasantly surprises me a bit.
-29% Deaths. On this most important category President Biden continues to kill it. On no other, just Deaths. On everything else he's getting killed.


7-day daily averages (through March 29 unless indicated)

65,385 65,315 Cases. Up.
39,897 Hospitalizations. Up.
995 Deaths. Up. Up by five per day but this now is the second straight iteration that Deaths have been up, minutely.
2.49% D-H rate. Flat. Second iteration it is flat. Unpleasantly surprises me with the yawning disparity between D's and H's over 14 days.

POJO's Bozo on today's test. He's gonna need vax to save him from a perfect 0. Oh no, what am I talking about. He's got two of the big three on the 14-day metric.

2,769,331. Vax (through March 30). Up. Oh! Speaking of which, I'm gonna be helping POJO out on Thursday. Gettin' my first vaccine. Great success.

Daily numbers (for March 29 unless indicated)

-Tuesday is the week's first full reporting day-

70,285 70,794 Cases. Up. The first full reporting day coming after the last reporting lag day does not explain this, however. According to NYT's stats Cases rose 25k overnight. No they didn't, that is utter bullshit, an epithet I have thrown at the Times dailies repeatedly recently. With complete justification! The numbers are obviously wrong even to a layman. I guess the Times doesn't get called on it, or if they do they just plead "Those are the numbers we got" but if the latter I would think the frigging New York Times would see this happening repeatedly and give their sources what for. They're just repeating nonsense if they don't explain and get to the bottom of obvious reporting error. Screed for the day.
40,317 Hospitalizations. Up.
685 Deaths. Up 300 over yesterday. No.
1,789,510 Vax. Down like 600k. I don't have enough experience working with the Vax numbers to know if they go through the same sink-or-swim cycle as the others. Just eyeballing the graph there is clear periodicity but why Vax would be down so drastically on a full reporting day I have no clue.

Grade F. It was POJO's worst ever performance on a daily test (43%).

Matt Gaetz, R-FL, Investigated for Sex With Underage Girl

It seems to me there's more of this perverted shit----Remember Judge Roy Moore, Alabama's Finest!--furries, "Cuck Conservatives," the preachers, that goes on among R's than in the Party of God. Yeah, we'll dildo an intern now and again, cheat on our wife--Here!-- but for this creepy type sex you have to turn to the Grand Old Pedophiles.




Yuck. "Candy, little girl?" Look at that guy. He even looks like one of those bible-thumping, lolita-humping preacher-predators.

Monday, March 29, 2021

Sergio Aguero to Leave Manchester City at Season's End

For every Manchester City fan, wherever he goes for the rest of his life, it can always be just before five o’clock on that May afternoon in 2012 and sky and human and pitch are all sky blue again.

                          Aguerooo!

CDC Director Feels "impending doom"



Dr. Rochelle Walensky...issued perhaps her most impassioned warning to date about a possible fourth surge of the coronavirus, saying she feels a sense of “impending doom.”

The nation has “so much reason for hope,” she said, her voice trembling with emotion. “But right now I’m scared.”

“I am asking you to just hold on a little longer, to get vaccinated when you can, so that all of those people that we all love will still be here when this pandemic ends,” she said at a White House briefing.

But we freed that ship. Doesn't that count on the other side of the Doom ledger?

I certainly hope that's her fucking most impassioned! Look, she meant well, meant to convey the sense of urgency, but your doctor does not get to say "I'm scared." Dumb ass.

COVID-19 BIDEN+67

+15% Cases.
-6% Hospitalizations.
-29% Deaths.

7-day daily averages (through March 28 unless indicated)

63,204 Cases. Up.
39,636 Hospitalizations. Up. First time the H 7-day average has risen since Jan. 10.
990 Deaths. Up.
2.49% Deaths-Hospitalizations. Flat.
2,757,586 Vax. Up. (Vax are keeping Deaths down, all important, but Vax cannot outrace Cases.)


Dailies (March 28 unless indicated)

-Monday is a reporting lag day-

45,582 Cases. Down. Down 15k which is bullshit.
39,924 Hospitalizations. Up.
487 Deaths, which is bullshit. Down.
2,350,144 Vax. Down, down 900k.

Grade F (POJO flunked this day's test with profundity. He got a 45%.)

COVID-19 BIDEN+66*

*Updated with H numbers.


3/28/21, 9:25 pm,

"No data reported" by NYT for Hospitalizations today. The 7-day graph line looks clearly up.

Anyway,

14-day changes

+12% Cases. Very bad, of course. The Times article said this Nightmare Before Easter was predicted by scientists weeks ago. Oh! I just clicked on the link the Times provided and I remember that article because I roundly criticized it. "Across the United States, and the world, the coronavirus seems to be loosening its stranglehold." Oh God, and today's article that I reference so much is written by the same reporter, Apoorva Mandavilli. Folks, I just don't have faith in what Ms. Mandavilli writes. Be that as it may, I don't care much that this late March rise was predicted. It is President Biden's Job One to make that prediction wrong. He hasn't.
-6% Hospitalizations
-31%. Deaths.The Times article cited earlier today explained this continuing huge drop in Deaths when Cases have risen into + territory and Hospitalizations drop at smaller and smaller rates: "Because many of the highest risk people have been inoculated, hospitalizations and deaths may not show a steep rise along with infections."


7-day daily averages (through March 27 unless indicated)

61,583 Cases. Up.
39,500 Hospitalizations. Down.
984 Deaths. Up one.
2,711,611 Vax (through March 28). Up. While that is good, Dr. Fauci was quoted in the Times article as saying that the B.1.1.7 (British) variant and irresponsible reopening by, prominently, Florida, are responsible for the rise in Cases. The article quoted another expert as saying that although President Biden is vaccinating at a quick, and quickening, rate (see daily vax number below), we may be losing the race against B.1.1.7 as it is soo much more contagious. The Times has, in fact, pushed back it's projected 90% vaccinated (herd immunity) date by one day to July 24.
2.49% Deaths to Hospitalizations. Up.

Daily numbers (for March 27 unless indicated)

-Sunday is a reporting lag day-

60,382 Cases. Down. Down 15k. Bullshit. That is reporting artifact.
39,727 Hospitalizations. Down
780 Deaths. Down. Down 1.48 k. Bullshit. Reporting artifact.
3,281,956 Vax (March 28). Up.

Grade F (even without the H numbers, which sure looks like they’re up).

 

Biden Calls on States to 

Reimpose Mask Mandates


(NYT)



“People are letting up on precautions, which is a very bad thing,” he said. “We are giving up hard-fought, hard-won gains.”

Asked if  states should pause their reopening efforts, the president replied simply, “Yes.”

“Please, this is politics,” he said.  “Reinstate the mandate if you let it down.”



Motherfucker's on top of things, I'll tell ya that.

No Cheering!






















I know some of you were about to cheer. No!

Sunday, March 28, 2021

When this is the top story in the news...

 

...you're doin' pretty good.

 

Covid-19 News: Variants and Eased Restrictions Push U.S. Cases Up Again

-nyt

The rise in infections is also a result of state leaders pulling back on mitigation measures, and large social interactions, like spring break gatherings in Florida, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the Biden administration’s chief science adviser, said on the CBS program “Face the Nation” on Sunday.

“The variants are playing a part, but it’s not completely the variants,” Dr. Fauci said. Most states have lifted restrictions, including on indoor dining, in response to the drop in numbers, actions that Dr. Fauci called “premature.”

The variant [B.1.1.7]— which is more transmissible and possibly more lethal — has been rising exponentially in the United States, its growth masked by the overall drop in infections.
...
B.1.1.7...is at least 50 percent more transmissible than the original virus. The brisk pace of vaccinations will stem the tide somewhat, but the rising immunity in the population may be more than offset by the variant’s contagiousness, he added. “B.1.1.7 is really scary,” he said.

Because many of the highest risk people have been inoculated, hospitalizations and deaths may not show a steep rise along with infections. 

[Ah! Death is different, so that is good.]

"It was a CNN report in August that got horrible pushback. That was a very difficult time, because everybody in the White House was upset with that interview and the clarity that I brought about the epidemic. I got called by the President. It was very uncomfortable, very direct and very difficult to hear." Asked by Gupta whether she was threatened during the call, Birx responded, "I would say it was a very uncomfortable conversation."

Then why didn't you leave, bitch? 

Look, Birx is not a real doctor. She was a flack for 46-1, the medical equivalent of his legal traveling clown show.  Sidney Powell with an MD instead of a JD. Birx effused over 46-1's attention to and knowledge of the COVID situation in an early spring interview; she spent the early summer telling him, the White House staff, and other members of the coronavirus task force that things were in hand, that there were mere "embers" in some of the cities that were being tamped down. She is disgraced having shilled for a disgraced president. Both are trying to rehabilitate themselves. Trump, please, I beg you: RUN AGAIN! Announce your candidacy for 2024 now! Embers, please campaign for him. Hell, maybe he'll make you his VP choice.

The first graph this morning is: the chalk on Cases, better than on Deaths, not as bad as on Hospitalizations. 





























Full later.

Saturday, March 27, 2021

Event 201, Johns Hopkins University, October 2019.


In October 2019 Johns Hopkins began a symposium to highlight the lack of preparedness for an anticipated pandemic. Called Event 201 the symposium even included simulated newscasts on the outbreak:





Later:





Here is a sample video on vaccines and shortages of PPE’s

Three months before the first U.S. case of COVID-19, Hopkins had game-planned the whole thing out. Yet, the disgraced former president in charge at the time was completely unprepared, then went into denial, spread misinformation, and finally gave up. 550,000 Americans have died. 

(Credit to my son for sending this, about which I knew NOTHING, to me at 6 pm. Kubrick reaction photo at top, my daughter.)

Very good column by Maureen Dowd today:


...Mr. President, here’s a suggestion: Ditch that other old habit of yours, bending over backward to appease Republicans. I know it’s a point of pride, but let’s be honest. It has led to all of your worst moments — letting Anita Hill down, letting the Iraq war start, letting Mitch McConnell sucker you on the 2012 fiscal cliff deal. [Owie]

Biden should do what he can to help Senate Democrats dilute the filibuster. And he should insist on the passage of the voting rights bill the Senate designed to target the voter suppression efforts enacted in Georgia, just a preview of what’s to come in other states...[And] couldn’t he finally make progress on the nation’s most shameful issue — blind worship of the AR-15?

Bipartisanship — or Bidenpartisanship — ain’t happening now. Washington is not built for unity at the moment. We live in a world where everyone is unappeasable.

...it must be dawning on Biden that “the willingness of most congressional Republicans to endorse Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn the November election and their unwillingness to convict Trump for his role in the violent putsch of January 6” proves “there can be no illusions of accord, or even of civilized dispute.”
(quoting Fintan O'Toole)

With the Senate and House majorities threatened in next year’s elections, there is a very narrow window to do great things. And with his first two initiatives, the $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill and the $3 trillion spending package, beginning with infrastructure, that is laced with climate change and income inequality measures, he seems to be savoring his new image as someone who goes for the big and bold.

[As an article in the same issue of NYT relates the problem with everything Ms. Dowd writes is two words: Joe. Manchin. Going big is not in Biden's sole discretion, nor even in the discretion of the Democratic Party. Because: Joe. Manchin. Biden has seen the light coming from that narrow window. Bipartisanship flew out of there. Biden made little attempt to gain even one Republican's vote on his COVID bill. But to get that done he had to have Joe. Manchin. To Manchin, bipartisanship is not a distant past chimera, it lives, it breathes. To Manchin the filibuster is not the brick wall to doing big things, the filibuster is a big thing. Gun control? "Guns are part of our culture in West Virginia."]

One recent evening, Biden met with historians in the East Room for two hours...The president seemed interested in activist presidencies, ones that took on big problems, like Lincoln, F.D.R. and L.B.J.
...
Republicans are out of touch with their own voters...“Republican voters agree with what I’m doing,” Biden said. [at his Wednesday press conference.]

The president knows that the American identity is on the line.

COVID-19 BIDEN+65

 



Well, the Quasis 14-day changes didn't...change. They seem to have all the numbers now--So watch, about 8:30 they'll come out with a new graph.


14-day changes

See below.

7-day daily averages through March 26 unless indicated)

60,773 Cases. Up.
39,570 Hospitalizations. Up eight.
983 Deaths. Down. First time the daily average over a week has been in three digits since Nov. 9.
2.48% D-H. Down. Close, so close, to the 2.43% rate of the Disgraced's last week.
2,677,034 Vax (March 21-27). Up.

Dailies (March 26 unless indicated)

75,756 Cases. Up.
40,325 Hospitalizations. Up.
1,260 Deaths. Down.
3,496,047 Vax. Up.

Grade D

March 27, 1:32 pm:



















Hospitalizations are going in the same direction as Cases did. On Monday H's were -17% and Cases fell into single digits, -7%. I wrote then that that was an ominous sign, as it turned out to be. On Wednesday Cases were -7%, H's -13% and I predicted that in a day or two Cases would be in +% territory. On Thursday Cases were flat. Yesterday, Cases were +3% and +4% and H's -10% and -8%. Today, preliminarily, C's are up to +8 and H's up to -7%. I predict that, just as yesterday, the final day's percentage for H's will be up from -7%. This is the last day of the full reporting week, which makes predictions over the weekend more uncertain. I will hazard a semi-informed prediction that when the final numbers come out Monday, H's will be +% over 14 days. As C's and H's rise so too will Deaths, the decline in which has lessened this week.

President Biden has a tiger by the tail with this thing and vaccinations will not let him hold it. He is going to have to impose the restrictions he can. Air travel should again be cut back. That's about all he can do on his own. The other, infinitely more effective mitigants, masking, schools and restaurants not reopening, he can only use his bully pulpit as suasion and the the public is sick of them. Eleven months ago I analogized lockdowns to a one-way street with multiple exits but no reentry ramps. Vax will take time that POJO does not have. Over 100,000 more people will die by July 23, the NYT new estimate (down from July 29), the date that the Times' predicts 90% of the country will be vaccinated (herd immunity level). 548k Americans have today been killed by COVID. By herd immunity date it will be 650k unless the president acts vigorously and now.

Full post on COVID-19 BIDEN+65 when data updated.

Larry McMurtry, 1936-2021

 

Mr. McMurtry (The Last Picture Show, Brokeback Mountain, Lonesome Dove, Terms of Endearment), the son of a Texas rancher, and the greatest American male writer of female characters in his lifetime, died Thursday, March 25, of congestive heart failure at his home in Archer City, Texas. May God keep Larry McMurtry.

Friday, March 26, 2021

 Covid-19 cases are rising. States are opening up anyway.

Fort Lauderdale, March 4.


Six Straight Losses


 

Sorry, there is something I have been meaning to post since Wednesday afternoon but haven't been able to "fit in" to another post, and wasn't sure it deserved a whole separate post itself. That it bothers me more than 48 hours later is justification enough.

Generally, I do not like a successful candidate for the presidency criticizing his disgraced predecessor for the "mess" he inherited. Everybody does it! It's just how I feel. Dude, then why'd you run? That's what I think. COVID/the economy, that is President Biden's problem now. Every fucking shit puddle your disgraceful predecessor stepped in is now yours. If you didn't break it and you don't fix it you own it. That's the rule. 

There are exceptions! President Obama was eminently justified in railing against Shrub and the Great Recession that was bequeathed him. Because: the fucking Great Recession (technically December 2007-June 2009) did not burst into public and political consciousness until the collapse of Lehman Bros, Sept. 15, 2008. Right at the end of the presidential campaign. John McCain, in fact, suspended his campaign and flew back to Washington. The point here is that Barack Obama had no fucking idea he was signing up for the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression when he announced his candidacy on Feb. 10, 2007. Motherfucker had been campaigning for nineteen months before the thing exploded. What's he going to do, pull out? "Oh, I thought, bring the boys home, I thought this was a decent time to be president. Later." So that's the exception. The rule is I don't like "waving the bloody flag" at opponents of wars past. The better writerly practice is to make your fucking point between enunciation of your rule and the exceptions. Less confusing to readers. And so now, out of order, to the point of this post.

I watched the entirety of President Biden's first ever press conference. He mentioned the name of his disgraced predecessor and the misdeeds of same a number of times. In fairness, all that I can remember were responsive answers to questions asked of him. He didn't start the fucking press conference pointing at a picture of Trump and yelling "WITCH!" That said in fairness, this in honesty: I noticed it the first time he did it and instantaneously didn't like it. In further fairness, he was asked about immigration, the conditions on the Southern Border, and had to explain how the Disgraced One changed the rules that had been in place and didn't enforce longstanding law or policy. In honesty, I still didn't like it.

In my view (it's my rule and my exception) the Obama Exception does not apply to President Biden. The immigration actions of the Disgraced have been meticulously and long-chronicled. They were, in fact, his campaign signature from the time he announced at the bottom of the fake gold escalator in 2015. Everything that Trump did was telegraphed ahead of time and announced in an ALL CAPS tweet followed by an ! Including at the time Joe Biden announced his candidacy. They are in fact the reason Joe threw his hat in. So the Obama Exception for sandbagging does not apply. Therefore, I didn’t like POJO bringing up the Disgraced’s name. 

I cannot say that this has been worth it, this writhing, this writing, and I cannot say that over 48 hours later this subject warrants a post of this length, but it is what I wanted to say and the way I wanted to say it. Later.

COVID-19 BIDEN+64

It changed. 




















And for the worse. Cases up more, Hospitalizations down less. Thankfully, Deaths are still a robust -31%

Look at the cases 7-day line--noticeably, sharply up. President Biden is losing his hold on this thing and frantically vaccinating is not going to regain his grip. We, the states, have opened too soon, we have relaxed with the masks too much.

7-day daily averages (March 19-25 unless indicated)

58,617 Cases. Up. 
39,622 Hospitalizations. Down. Down three. Lol.
1,019 Deaths. Down.
2.57% Deaths-Hospitalizations. Down.
2,624,410 Vax. Up.

Daily numbers (March 25 unless indicated)

69,559 Cases. Down (?) Yes, down. Down by 10k, as a matter of fact. That makes no sense. Tuesday through Saturday is the full reporting week, allegedly. No Sunday-Monday weekend reporting lag. Be that as it may, these numbers are not organic. The number of Cases didn't rise 23k Wednesday and fall 10k Thursday on their own.some.
40,568 Hospitalizations. UP.
1,270 Deaths. Down. As with Cases so with Deaths: 56% more people were reported dead of COVID on March 24th than on the 23rd? Wednesday just a good day to die? And then on Thursday 20% fewer people decide to die? No. Those numbers are not real.
3,379,393 Vax. Up.

Things are worse, but the daily numbers, and hence one-seventh of the week's average daily, skew things more poorly than they are. Off March 24th's daily Deaths I termed the current situation a "catastrophe." It is not. I want to kill the reporters is who I want dead. The daily numbers are, for reasons unknown to me, wrong. The only reliable figures are the 14-day changes, they are bad, but aside from Cases, not bad bad.

Grade C

Pat Riley on His New Team and Erik Spoelstra

“The most important thing is to incorporate both of these players into the present moment right now and to see how [Erik Spoelstra]’s going to sort of deal with this whole mix of players...Spo will have a lot of options to be able to go [to] and be able to not experiment but use,...and so he’s got to put all of that together now while we make this mad rush to the finish.” (emphasis added)

States are racing to vaccinate as many people as possible as the United States’ coronavirus infection curve continues its plateau for a third week at more than 55,000 new cases per day, a level that health experts warn could rapidly escalate into a new wave.

That prospect adds further urgency to vaccination efforts, even as some states appear confident that their inoculation levels justify loosening restrictions.

Thursday, March 25, 2021

I wrote just a week a go that streaky basketball teams are poorly-coached. I singled out the Cleveland “Cavaliers” and my own beloved Pitt “Panthers.” Well, what say I now?  

The “Heat” lost their fifth game in a row after winning 11 out of 12. 

Before that they won four in a row in early February, and that was preceded by five straight losses in late January. 

I have zero explanation for this current slump. I excused the first loss in the streak to having an aberrational, systemic cold shooting night. “It happens,” I excused. 

But in the next game they couldn’t shoot shit from range and all of a sudden couldn’t defend. Indiana shot 58.4% (55.6%) in the most embarrassing defensive performance I can remember a Spoelstra-coached team having. 

In the re-match two days later they defended well but still couldn’t shoot. 

Didn’t defend and didn’t shoot well from long against PHX next game. 

Now in the context of those four games, the initial Memphis loss was not aberrational but the first of four straight sub-par shooting and/or defending games. Something fucking happened! don’t know what but it is Erik Spoelstra’s job to know, and to fucking fix it. 

Tonight, I could excuse the loss to Portland by the absence or yet-to-arrive of six of the roster’s 15 players, including Jimmy and the 🐉. Magic Johnson opined when today’s trade deadline passed that,

Earvin Magic Johnson
@MagicJohnson
·5h

The Miami Heat won the NBA trade deadline acquiring Victor Oladipo and Nemanja Bjelica. The Denver Nuggets came in second acquiring Aaron Gordon and JaVale McGee.

Which is groovy poovy except we didn’t have Oladipo and Bjelica.

But looking at the box score I have no idea how you lose a game where you shot 56% (47.1%)! Miami didn’t defend terrificly, Portlandia shot 47.8% (43.5%) but they didn’t shoot as well as the “Heat” did! How the fuck do you lose that fucking game. 

The nine guys we did have available, which included some pretty fair ballplayers named Adebayo, Herro, Robinson, and Nunn, played some pretty good basketball it looks like. Still lost. AP noted that this was the 19th different lineup Spo had used this season. Again, tonight that is eminently excusable. The other 18, not so much. Spoelstra is a tinkerer, he equates tinkering with coaching. There is no excuse for this season’s streakiness and there is only one explanation: Spo is tinkering and that is not the same as coaching.

Jim Creau

 

Georgia G.O.P. Passes Major Law to Limit Voting Amid Nationwide Push

The law, which has been denounced by Democrats and voting rights groups, comes as Republican-controlled legislatures across the country mount the most extensive contraction of ballot access in generations.

Georgia Republicans on Thursday passed a sweeping law to restrict voting access in the state, introducing more rigid voter identification requirements for absentee balloting, limiting drop boxes and expanding the Legislature’s power over elections...

[Republican governor Brian Kemp signed the bill into law tonight. The bolded part is key. They are neutering the secretary of state's office, the incumbent is Brad Raffensperger, who resisted unprecedented pressure from the disgraced Donald Trump and his traveling clown show of lawyers. Trump recruited and has endorsed a Georgia congressman to run against Raffensperger. ]

[These Republican actions are, as President Biden said today, un-democratic, nouveau Jim Crow and he lowered his head to amplify his voice to denounce them. Our children will be getting their PhD's on whether democracy in America prevailed in the worldwide battle with autocracy, the president said. But he also made clear today that COVID/economy is his Job One, and that twinned demon is resurgent slightly more menacing tonight. He will get to the other issues on his plate in time. There is proposed federal legislation that would secure voting rights and undo attempts like this by the Christian Fascists.]

COVID-19 BIDEN+63

*Updated 3/26 with Hospitalizations numbers for 3/24.


March 25, 5:38 pm:

There you go:


Flat Cases, 14-day change. Last night I predicted that another two, maybe only one, day of 5k increases in Cases would send the 14-day average into positive territory. It took the first step, moving out of negative to flat.

We're going to break our format and keep it here on Cases.

57,333 Cases, 7-day daily average. UP. That is almost a 3k increase in the daily average March 18-24. 

79,513 new Cases March 24, 23k more than March 23! POJO was asked today in his press conference when we could expect action on immigration, gun control, voting rights, DPRK, etc.--all the other issues. He answered that his entire focus to date has been on the twinned COVID/economy issue. With his eye on these numbers he's not going to lose that focus. It has been over one month now that Cases have been plateaued, but now a tremendous increase. He's got to re-double his focus. States have opened up too soon. People have relaxed--just look at those thousands of unmasked kids on South Beach over the weekend. Those are all unvaccinated. A curfew just forces them indoors, in closer contact with other unvaccinateds. The risk to their health is comparatively mild. It's the older people who staff the hotels and bars, who they interact with in stores, the police, residents, their parents and aunts and uncles who they will go back to eventually, who they jeopardize. This is the longest goddamned spring break in the history of the world and it is going to be a super-spreader of this virus.

On to the other categories:

14-day changes

Hospitalizations, Down.
Deaths, Down.

7-day daily averages (Through March 24 unless indicated)

39,625 Hospitalizations. Down.
1,060 Deaths. Up.
2,510,755 Vaccinations March 19-25. Up.
2.67% Deaths-Hospitalization rate. Up.

Daily numbers March 24 unless indicated)

39,333 Hospitalizations. Down.
1,591 new Deaths March 24. UP 56% over March 23's total. The second straight day it has risen.

This is becoming a catastrophe.

2,831,442 Vax March 25. Up. Both good, of course. But you're using a Volkswagen in a road race against a Ferrari trying to outrun this thing with vaccinations. You can't vaccinate that quickly. We've vaccinated 26.5% of the country's population of 328.2M. 240.9M are not vaccinated. When do we reach herd immunity? Take the highest informed estimate, 90% (either vaccinated or with the antigen). At a pace of 1.69M daily vaccinations, the number, for some reason, that the NYT uses, it will be July 29 before 90% of the country has been vaccinated. Well, it's always been the summer, hasn't it? From memory it has always been June, July when a sufficient percentage of people are immune that it's safe to reopen completely. The problem is we're reopening now. Restrictions all over the country are being lifted: travel restrictions, school distancing, dining limits. People are ignoring more and more the masks. Those who have acquired immunity naturally and have the antigen, an unknown number to me, would push the July 29 date forward, but there is still so much about this virus that we do not understand. You can get it twice. There is some, again unknown to me, shelf-life to antigen protection. Is there a shelf-life to the vaccine?  I at least don't know.

Hospitalizations data are not available at post time but the data we do have are too important to wait. 

President Biden's Grade: F
Biden’s always late.
President Biden’s first press conference is at 1:15.
The NBA trade deadline is today at 3 o’clock.

The Toronto “Raptors” are asking for Tyler Herro in a deal for Kyle Lowry. That’s a no-do.
Nicholas Nickleby is Dickens lobotomized, Dickens the dialoguer possessed by Fennimore Cooper. It is awful.


 

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

COVID-19 BIDEN+62

14 day changes

7% Cases.
13% Hospitalizations.
40% Deaths!

President Biden is just evaporating Deaths. That is the second time recently that Deaths have declined 40%.

7-day daily averages (through March 23 unless indicated)

54,815 Cases. Up.
39,884 Hospitalizations. Down.
1,001 Deaths. Down.
2,490,889 Vax. Down. 
2.50% Deaths-Hospitalizations rate for March 17-23. Down. POJO is chopping that percentage down too. It was about 3.5% at one point. 46-1's last week's percentage was 2.43%. POJO is closing on that.

Dailies (March 23 unless indicated)

59,782 Cases. Up. Cases are the concern now. Down minimally in the last two weeks, up in the last seven days and up 5k March 23. Increases of that magnitude in the next two iterations, maybe just one, will send the 14-day change into positive territory for the first time in forever.
39,439 Hospitalizations. Up. Of course. A 5k rise in cases is going to result in an increase in hospitalizations.
892 Deaths. Up. The rise in hospitalizations is going to lead to more Deaths.
2,256,824 Vax. Up.

The data started out well for POJO but ended poorly. Grade C.

Tuesday, March 23, 2021













The headline in the afternoon was,

Biden has a long, frustrating history of pushing for gun control.


As president, Joseph R. Biden Jr. finds himself in a position distressingly similar to the one he confronted eight years ago as vice president: trying to figure out a way to stop mass shootings and meeting resistance from conservative gun owners and their political allies.
...
President Barack Obama chose not to act immediately following the massacre of 26 children and adults at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn. in 2012, as many Democrats had hoped, by pushing for a quick vote on gun control legislation.

I was beginning to get irritated and had no memory of that.

Instead, he delegated the task of coming up with a package of reforms to Mr. Biden...

From his earliest days in the administration. Mr. Biden pushed Mr. Obama to do more on guns, to little avail, his advisers later said. “Even before Newtown, the vice president had wanted the administration to push harder on the issue,” Bruce Reed, Mr. Biden’s chief of staff as vice president, and still a trusted adviser, told a reporter in 2015.


Now, I was just curious. I text messaged the Second Unfortunate:

Hmm. What was it with Obama? Terminal caution? Jeez.

She responded:

I remember that as well. Biden was much stronger in gun control. Any insight from the Obama book?

I texted back that her memory was better than mine and that no, A Promised Land was only 1,067 pages long and so just covered Obama’s first term.

I asked my ex if she had ever read why President Obama was so cautious and half-measured. Before she could respond,

I just thought of something. Obama’s mantra was DDSS, “Don’t do stupid shit.” Very cautious governing philosophy.

"Don't do stupid shit" is just two words longer than "Don't do." The message could get lost. It was a mantra for inaction.

Now tonight, after POJO made a speech on Boulder, the headline is,
The contrast is just so stark.

FT MIA PHX 110

My oh my. Somethin’s wrong with the “Heaters.” Four straight losses.

COVID-19 BIDEN+61

First day of the new full reporting week.

14-day changes


-8% Cases.
-17% Hospitalizations.
-35% Deaths.

7-day daily averages (through March 22 unless indicated)

54,193 Cases. Down.
40,106 Hospitalizations. Down/
1,051 Deaths. Down.
2,497,025 Vax (March 23). Up.
2.62% Deaths-Hospitalizations. Down.

Daily numbers (March 22 unless indicated)

55,641 Cases. Up.
38,565 Hospitalizations. Down.
650 Deaths. Up. That 650 Deaths is up shows 1) How much progress we have made 2) How unreal 444 was yesterday (reporting lag day).
1,707,293 Vax. Down.

Grade B

7:19 pm March 23, 2021



Dang.

“I was allowed to believe things that weren’t true.”-QAnon Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene

Sidney Powell's 'No Reasonable Person' Election Lawsuit Admission Divides QAnon Believers

-Newsweek

I bet! SUCKERS!

Sidney Powell Defamation Defense: “No reasonable person” would believe her election lies-The Guardian

“No reasonable person would conclude that the statements were truly statements of fact,”

HAHAHAHAHA!

Oh my God, the Boulder mass shooting gunman is MUSLIM! Ahmad Al Aliwi Alissa, or Ahmad Al Issa. It never crossed my mind that this guy was Muslim, seriously!

Monday, March 22, 2021




Chief: Our hearts go out to all families impacted. There are 10 fatalities. She identified slain Police Officer Eric Talley, who was one of the first on the scene. She calls officer's actions "heroic."


10:08 pm:

 

It's like the "Heat" game yesterday wasn't real, it didn't really happen. No AP write-up (ESPN), no report ANYWHERE that I can see. WEIRD.

COVID-19 BIDEN+60

14-day changes

-7% Cases.














7% is not much. Just today in NYT:

U.S. Rushes to Expand Covid Vaccine Eligibility in a ‘Race Against Time’

As coronavirus cases nationwide have plateaued, at least 20 states have committed in recent days to widening the list of people who may get a vaccine.

the country finds itself at a precarious point in the pandemic. Cases, deaths and hospitalizations have all fallen sharply from January peaks, yet infection levels have plateaued this month, at about 55,000 new cases a day.


 
-17% Hospitalizations
-38% Deaths


7-day daily changes(through March 21 unless indicated)

54,407 Cases. Down.
40,404 Hospitalizations. Down.
1,066 Deaths. Down.
2.63% Deaths-Hospitalizations rate. Down.
2,489,697 Vax. (Through March 22) Up.


Daily numbers (March 21 unless indicated)

-Mondays are reporting lag days-

34,236 Cases. Down. Down an enormous 20k!
38,969 Hospitalizations. Down.
444. FO' FO FO! Lowest since Nov. 1!
2,028,324 Vax. (March 22) Down over 1M!


Grade A (98%. POJO missed a perfect 100% by one measly point, Swine Vaccinations daily number). Third straight A. A day without an A is dy.