Trump Epidemic March 31 10:10 p.m.

The Johnnies map is down, I don't know if maybe they got a defective map from Trump, but for most people the daily counter has little relevance for now. Trump, Dr. Fauci, and the task force see the deadhead sticker on the Cadillac up ahead: 100,000-240,000. That's the finish line. If the Caddy runs its course and only 100,000 are killed on the way then at least right now most living Americans would give them the checkered flag. Maybe approval will go down as 96,000 or so are unable to take the pollster's calls because they are dead.

Trump, Fauci, et also want to put a little voice inside our heads: Trump's previous lies? Trump's previous inaction? "Don't look back, you can never look back." How many deaths would be projected had Trump put his "strict guidelines" into effect weeks earlier, when he should have. Now, now! There you go again. No looking back! It's moot, Dr. Fauci has said--Forward!--thus enabling Trump's lies, see below, thus holding Trump unaccountable:

Mr. Trump, who spent weeks downplaying the threat of the virus — and who has retreated from his recent suggestion that social distancing could be scaled back in mid-April — congratulated himself for projections showing that public health measures may dramatically limit the national death toll.

“What would have happened if we did nothing? Because there was a group that said, ‘Let’s just ride it out,’” Mr. Trump said, without saying what “group” he was referring to.
...
Mr. Trump said that as many as 2.2 million people “would have died if we did nothing, if we just carried on with our life.”

By comparison, he said, a potential death toll of 100,000 “is a very low number.”

Asked how current casualty estimates might differ had Mr. Trump called for social distancing measures weeks earlier than he did, in mid-March, almost two months after the first confirmed case of coronavirus in the United States, Mr. Trump insisted that he had acted decisively. “I think we’ve done a great job.”...

Asked about his repeated assurances to Americans in recent weeks that the virus would peter out with minimal impact, Mr. Trump insisted, as he has before, that he was trying to reassure the nation.

Trump Self-Grades Trump Solution to Trump Epidemic: “great job”

Last 24

hey russia yeah go away i hate you

Trump Epidemic Mortality Rate 2.05%, 3,415 Killed, March 31 12:49 p.m.

Trump Epidemic Mortality Rate Up To 1.92%, March 31, 10:26 a.m.

Trump Epidemic Killed 3,008, 9/11 Killed 2,996

"TOLDJA! Nowhere near 100,000! You're welcome you ungrateful pieces of shit."

The Reality of the Cult

For his entire adult life, and for his entire presidency, Donald Trump has created his own alternate reality, complete with his own alternate set of facts. 
...
“He has chosen to imagine the worst is behind us when the worst is clearly ahead of us.”-White House consultant.
...
“This fool will bring the death of thousands needlessly. We have mobilized as a country to shut things down for a time, despite the difficulty. We can work our way back to a semblance of normality if we hold out and let the health system make it through the worst of it. But now our own president is undoing all that work and preaching recklessness. Rather than lead us in taking on a difficult challenge, he is dragging us toward failure and suffering. Beyond belief.”
-former White House advisor after Trump's March 23 virus press briefing.
...
...the pandemic and its economic fallout “overwhelm Trump’s capacity to understand, are outside of his ability to internalize and process, and [are] beyond his frustration tolerance. He is neither curious nor interested; facts are tossed aside when inconvenient or [when they] contradict his parallel reality, and people are disposable unless they serve him in some way.”
-a clinical psychologist
...
Trump’s success as a politician has been built on his ability to impose his will and narrative on others, to use his experience on a reality-television show and his skill as a con man to shape public impressions in his favor, even—or perhaps, especially—if those impressions are at odds with reality. 
...
But in this instance, Trump isn’t facing a political problem he can easily spin his way out of. 

[In fact, he is spinning his way out of it.]

But what happens to Trump psychologically and emotionally when things don’t turn around in the time period he wants? What happens if the tricks that have allowed him to walk away from scandal after scandal don’t work quite so well, if the doors of escape are bolted shut, and if it dawns on even some of his supporters—people who will watch family members, friends, and neighbors contract the disease, some number of whom will die—that no matter what Trump says, he can’t alter this epidemiological reality?

[The answer to the rhetorical question is, "Trump will just change the reality and get his supporters to live in it with him." In fact there is evidence that is what is happening. Trump's approval rating has increased. Those who approve of his handling of the Trump Virus Epidemic have increased. This article was written by Peter Wehner and published in The Atlantic on March 25. Four days after publication, yesterday, Trump was provided an alternate reality of 100,000-200,000 deaths by Dr. Anthony Fauci. Trump spun that into "we've done a good job" if we hold deaths between or under those numbers. Peter grossly minimizes the Svengali-like hold that Trump has on his supporters, the Low Lifes. Now, for Trump and the Low Lifes, reality--and a "good job" done!--are defined by those numbers, not the thirty-odd statements Trump made previously brushing off the virus, not his brush off inaction that has led to those death projections. It is a Cult of Personality where the only reality is what the Leader says it is. His followers go along with whatever he says.]

He’ll demand even more cultlike coverage from outlets such as Fox News. 
...
All of these things are from a playbook the president has used a thousand times. Perhaps they’ll succeed again...He can’t easily create another narrative, because he is often sharing the stage with scientists who will not lie on his behalf.

[It is crucial that non-cult members recognize the role of Dr. Fauci in this for all of us now inhabit space known as Trump-Fauci Reality. I agree that Dr. Fauci will not lie for Trump. But he will give Trump an out. Fauci is not, as he told recent interviewers, going to contradict or embarrass Trump on stage. And after his interviews with Maureen Dowd of the Times and with Science magazine, where he did embarrass Trump a little, Trump's cultlike media began assailing Fauci. The Times printed an article that Trump was "losing patience" with Fauci. Fauci didn't appear with Trump at briefings for a day or two. On one of those days Trump was asked where Fauci was. Trump said he had just had a "long talk" with him. Fauci will do everything he possibly can do to navigate between the Scylla of the real and the Charybdis of Trump's unreal. As he does, Fauci becomes an enabler of the cult. Trump is using Fauci. He has lashed himself to Fauci so that they are now one. Success, and failure, are now joint.]

He will try to create an alternate story to distract people from an inconvenient truth—but in this case, the public is too afraid, the story is too big, and the carnage will be too great to be distracted from it.

[I do not think that is going to happen.]
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/presidents-character-unequal-task/608743/

What Is Real?

Ladies and gentlemen, we are being manipulated. Reality is being transmogrified into unreality. Our brains are being manipulated to accept the New Reality. 100,000-200,000 deaths is GOOD! Up is down, bad is good, catastrophic, ignorant, bumbling, covering up, incompetence that cost 100,000, “maybe less”! and up to 200,000 lives, is “a very good job”—it would have been so much worse if I was not president!; truth is, what is truth anyway? There is no truth in the media, that’s all fake news, the “real” truth comes only from me. Reality now is “expectations.” Those numbers have no reality except on relation to expectations and I’m gonna win the expectations game cuz I’m a WINNER and everybody else is a liar and Loser.

It is the Great Lie, straight out of the Kremlin playbook. Repeat the Great Lie often enough and it becomes accepted as the Great Truth. It is dezinformatsiya. It is creating an alternate reality that we will live in.

Today Was the Turning Point

Dr Anthony Fauci, wittingly or unwittingly, gave Trump a way out of this. Trump is going to get away with this. Trump is going to brag that he kept the numbers “down” to a “reasonable” level, he has already started! He set the goal line for Victory: between 100,000 and 200,000 and “we’ve done a very good job”; the American people are going to buy it—as they already have started doing with Trump’s approval rating up—and he’s going to win reelection, rather than be tarred and feathered and hung up by his heels as he deserves.

Trump Epidemic March 29, 9:14 p.m.

Dr. Fauci took the appalling out of these nightly numbers today by taking the mystery away. Appalling is to be expected now so don't be appalled. Dr. Fauci so avoided and caveated and parenthetical-ed his way there that Jake Tapper didn't even react when Dr. Fauci clarified that it was 100,000-200,000 deaths he meant to say, not cases, those will rise to the millions. Those other estimates, of 1,000,000 or 2,000,000 deaths were not reasonable, possible yes, but not reasonable, Jake, what is reasonable is 100,000-200,000 deaths. Dr. Fauci was so reasonable that he made 100,000-200,000 deaths reasonable. It's all an expectations game and now the expected is 100,000-200,000 deaths.

Trump:

"So if we can hold that down, as we're saying, to 100,000, it's a horrible number, maybe even less, but to 100,000, so we have between 100 and 200,000, we all together have done a very good job.”

So adjust your eye glasses accordingly so you don't hold Trump accountable. Unbelievable. But that is what Dr. Fauci did for Trump today.

142,106: Confirmed cases.

Pasadena California pop. 141, 371.

2,479: Deaths.

Campbell City Florida pop. 2479.

Hey! Dig it DEEP! You don't want him to crawl out!







1.74%: Mortality rate.
2,686: Recovered. Look at that! Recoveries exceed deaths! That's good news!

2,403: Killed in Pearl Harbor surprise attack.
2,436: Killed in non-surprise attack of Covid-19. (6:49 p.m. March 29)

100,000-200,000 DEATHS: DR. ANTHONY FAUCI

FAUCI: 100,000-200,000 DEATHS

Nobody on the road
Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air
The summer's out of reach
Empty lake, empty streets
The sun goes down alone
...
Out on the road today
I saw a Deadhead sticker on a Cadillac
A little voice inside my head said
“Don't look back, you can never look back”
Boys of Trumpster

James Dolan Trump Virus+ Will Sell “Knicks”

BoJo Tests Postive for Covid-19, Is Self-Isolating

Sounds like an overdue plan.

Trump, Can We Compromise? You Can Sign the Checks If you Sign the Death Certificates?

Trump Wants His Signature on Stimulus Checks.

Putin's?

Mr. Trump has told people he wants his signature to appear on the direct payment checks that will go out to many Americans in the coming weeks, according to an administration official. The White House didn’t comment.

Normally, a civil servant—the disbursing officer for the payment center—would sign federal checks, said Don Hammond, a former senior Treasury Department official.
Wallies

Trump Epidemic, March 28 8:51 pm

122,666: Confirmed cases, 18,724 new cases in 24 hours. An increase of 15.26%. Still exponential growth through March 27.

2,147: Deaths. An increase of 1,458 and 68% since yesterday. 2,147 is the exact population of Richfield, NY. Metaphorically the entire town of Richfield has now died in the Trump Epidemic.
1.75%: Mortality rate. Has increased every day for several days.
1,073: Recoveries.
2.00: Death to Recovery ratio.
0%: Chance of Trump's reselection.
30%: Chance Trump and Melania will hang like bats.

5%: ChanceTrump will do the right thing.

Mystery In Wuhan: Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive
(NPR)

A spate of mysterious second-time infections is calling into question the accuracy of COVID-19 [testing] even as China prepares to lift quarantine measures to allow residents to leave the epicenter of its outbreak next month. It's also raising concerns of a possible second wave of cases.

[Two different things there.]

...
...about 5%-10% of patients pronounced "recovered" have tested positive again.

Some of those who retested positive appear to be asymptomatic carriers — those who carry the virus and are possibly infectious but do not exhibit any of the illness's associated symptoms — suggesting that the outbreak in Wuhan is not close to being over.

NPR has spoken by phone or exchanged text messages with four individuals in Wuhan who are part of this group of individuals testing positive a second time in March. All four said they had been sickened with the virus and tested positive, then were released from medical care in recent weeks after their condition improved and they tested negative.

Two of them are front-line doctors who were sickened after treating patients in their Wuhan hospitals. The other two are Wuhan residents.
...
Could that second positive test mean a second round of infection? Virologists think it is unlikely that a COVID-19 patient could be re-infected so quickly after recovery but caution that it is too soon to know.
...
In February, Wang Chen, a director at the state-run Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, estimated that the nucleic acid tests used in China were accurate at identifying positive cases of the coronavirus only 30%-50% of the time.

What if you’ll be 65 in a month?

There is not a goddamned sound

I live in an eight story condo; I live one-half block off the major East-West thoroughfare connecting the City of Miami to Miami Beach; I live right across the street from an immense middle school.

It is 9:16 a.m. on a Saturday and the weather is gorgeous. Yet, there is not a goddamned sound. No vehicle noise, no neighbors talking, no kids playing, NOTHING. It feels like the Beijing airport. It is uncanny.

Silent Spring.

Trump Epidemic March 27 8:51 p.m.

To it then. By the numbers:

103,942 total confirmed cases.
1,689 deaths.
870 recovered. Those infected with the virus are dying at a rate 1.94 times greater than those who are recovering.
1.62% mortality rate. The mortality rate has steadily risen over the days, from 1.2%, 1.3%, 1.4%, 1.5% and now to over 1.6%.

The stars wink their insentient eyes above as a cancer metastasizes all over America below. It has consumed now an entire population larger than that of Burbank, California and at a sickening, climbing rate the lights are going out all across America.

A dark, frightful day, the details of which we will record at 8:51 p.m. but a moment of laughter came today as well.

There's this congressman from Kentucky, "Thomas" "Massie." Republican of course. So, Trump's $2 trillion "stimulus" bill went to the House today for final vote before Trump signed it. A formality, the vote. Scores of Congress men and women had left, fearful of Trump Virus, to go back to their home districts on an extended break. Massie drove back to D.C. to prevent the formality of unanimous consent. But no! Massie forced every member of Congress to turn around, go back to D.C., and vote. They were maadd, hoo doggie! Trump tweeted that Massie should be kicked out of the Republican party but it was patrician former Secretary of State and Senator John Kerry who provided the lol. Proper John Kerry, who once tried to be just one of the boys by saying "Who amongst us does not love NASCAR?" tweeted about Massie,

John Kerry

@JohnKerry

Breaking news: Congressman Massie has tested positive for being an asshole. He must be quarantined to prevent the spread of his massive stupidity. He's given new meaning to the term #Masshole. (Finally, something the president and I can agree on!)

John Kerry, you sir, win the star of the day award.

Quote Tweet

Late last night I saw a picture story on the ex-Quasis--photos passengers took of empty airplanes. That got me curious. "Wow, wonder what the prices are now" to self. I flew round trip from Miami to Austin, Texas three times from the Summer of 2018 to Summer of 2019. I looked up my email confirmation of reservation for the fare for the June 24, 2019 trip: $342. I then checked the current price--this is hard to believe:

Sort by

Best Flights Price Departure time Arrival time Duration

1. 

   8:30 AM – 10:43 AM

   American
   

    Operated by Republic Airways as American Eagle

   3h 13m

   MIA–AUS

   Nonstop

   $41

   round trip

There are 4 dead passengers aboard Carnival cruise ship Zaandam. Fifty-three additional passengers and eighty-five crew are symptomatic for Covid-19. The ship was originally supposed to complete its voyage in dock in Chile on March 21 but was denied permission. It is now going to dock in...Fort Lauderdale.

Trump orders General Motors 

to make ventilators under 

Defense Production Act

(CNBC)

That is breaking news just a moment ago. That is Herbert Hoover stumbling blindly in the dark, not knowing what to do, finding a good needle in a haystack after he picked the needle up just yesterday and discarded it.

DJIA closed the week on a down note, 21,636.78, -4.06%. I little profit-taking "thank you!" to Trump is how I would read that which means it's probably wrong.

I am so annoyed.

That''s all it said, "Stay indoors." No reason! Not, "Covid-19." In the past I have gotten violent weather alerts. WHY AM I SUPPOSED TO STAY IN FUCKING DOORS! Swine phone.

I got an alert at 2:07 on my phone. It was in Spanish. I texted my son and the second unfortunate ex-Mrs. Harris if they had received one. She replied that she had..."Well, what did it say!" "It said stay indoors and take this time to learn Spanish."

I don't even know what day it is anymore.

Crazy Hour

It's late at night. My crazy time. So hear the crazy bell ring tonight. I have thought about this classic Louis CK skit several times in the last two weeks.

I thought about it again just tonight. I read this article on Japan's "puzzling" success with Covid-19:

Japan has puzzled epidemiologists as it has avoided the grim situations in places like Italy and New York without draconian restrictions on movement, economically devastating lockdowns or even widespread testing. [Note that last one.]
...
Although schools have been closed for a month...the rest of life has returned to normal. People have been riding crowded subways, congregating in parks to view the cherry blossoms, shopping, drinking and dining, comforted by Japan’s relatively low number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths.
...
Japan, a country of almost 127 million people, has reported only 1,300 cases and 45 deaths, with one of the slowest-progressing death rates in the world despite its aging population.

“It’s either they did something right,” said Dr. Peter Rabinowitz, co-director of the University of Washington MetaCenter for Pandemic Preparedness and Global Health Security, “or they didn’t, and we just don’t know about it yet.”

[Thank you for your expertise, Dr. Rabinowitz.]

As Japan has seemed to pull off a feat of infection containment...Nor did it adopt the kind of wholesale testing that helped South Korea isolate and treat people before they could spread the disease.

[Did you note that?]

...Japan has tested only about 25,000. Japan now has the capacity to conduct about 7,500 tests a day, but its daily average is closer to 1,200 or 1,300.

Dr. Tomoya Saito, director of the department of health crisis management at the National Institute of Public Health, said the limited testing was intentional. Those who are tested are referred by doctors, usually after patients have had fevers and other symptoms for two to four days. Japan’s current policy is to admit anyone who tests positive to a hospital, so officials want to avoid draining health care resources with less severe cases.

Dr. Saito said that part of Japan’s seeming resistance to infection may result from measures common in the culture, including frequent hand-washing and bowing instead of shaking hands. People are also much more likely to wear masks on trains and in public spaces. “It’s a kind of social distancing,” Dr. Saito said.

[I don't buy that explanation, not in one of the most densely populated countries in the world. See below for Japan's "social distancing."]
...
Dr. Masaya Yamato, chief of infectious diseases at Rinku General Medical Center in Osaka, said the region was moving toward a model where coronavirus patients with mild symptoms could stay at home in order to save hospital beds for the seriously ill.

In Tokyo, there are only 100 beds designated to handle those with serious infectious diseases. On Wednesday, the city government pledged to secure 600 more.
...
Near Shinbashi Station in central Tokyo, men in black suits sat elbow to elbow at a counter in a restaurant offering a fried noodle lunch special for 500 yen, about $4.50. A long line formed outside a McDonald’s, and smokers crowded a small pen near the station entrance.
...
At a store not far from the park, Kazuhisa Haraguchi, 36, stood in a long line for a chance to buy a limited-edition pair of Nike Air Max sneakers.

Mr. Haraguchi said that he was worried about how the virus was spreading in the United States and Europe, but that he wasn’t too concerned about the situation in Japan.

“It’s scary, but it doesn’t seem like there’s much of it here right now,” he said. “If I die, at least I’ll die with my sneakers.”

What if we didn't test? (We really aren't.) Good point. What if we deliberately did not test, like Japan?
What if we didn't know that there were precisely 85,840 cases of Covid-19 in the U.S? What if we didn't know why 1,296 people out of 372,000,000 died recently of something that started with a fever and a dry cough and then in that tiny, tiny fraction of the population got worse, something that looked very much like the seasonal flu which began in September and got 36,000,000 sick and killed 22,000, would anyone notice if instead of 22,000, 23,296 people died of the seasonal flu this year? If 1,296 trees fall in a forest and there is no one around to hear, did they make a noise? “Maybe if we just went like this (hands over eyes) for a year we’d be done with nut allergies forever.”

What if we had just gone on with the business of living* with the attitude of Kazuhisa Haraguchi. Of course, Covid-19 is scary! Of course, it is. "But maybe, since I’m going to die of something anyway and if it’s going to be as stupid a thing as the flu or touching a nut maybe I was supposed to die anyway. “And at least I’ll die with my sneakers.”

Of course not. Of course not. That’s crazy.

*Updated: The undersigned will not be able to go on about his law bidness. Thursday, the court closure was extended through April 20.

Trump Epidemic March 26 8:51 p.m.*

83,836 total confirmed cases, highest in the world.
18,058 new cases just today, the day when Trump passed the buck to the states.
1,209 deaths.
*1.50% mortality rate at 9:49 p.m. the 1.44% mortality rate. That is down from 1.51% yesterday, the only goodish news today.

Trump is done. He's gonna be strung up by his heels...Yes, like that.

Cowardly Lyin' Trump Running Scared, Deserting from "War"

White House Considers $1 Billion Price Tag for Ventilators — and Has Second Thoughts

A deal with General Motors and Ventec Life Systems to produce tens of thousands of the critical lifesaving devices seemed imminent. Then the announcement was pulled back.

WASHINGTON — The White House had been preparing on Wednesday to announce amid an escalating pandemic that a joint venture between General Motors and Ventec Life Systems would begin producing as many as 80,000 desperately needed ventilators when word suddenly came down that the announcement was off.

The decision to cancel the announcement, according to government officials, came after the Federal Emergency Management Agency said it needed more time to assess whether the estimated cost was prohibitive — more than $1 billion...

...

By early Thursday evening, at the president’s daily news briefing with his coronavirus task force, there was still nothing to announce, and the outcome of the deliberations remained unclear.

...

The shortage of ventilators has emerged as one of the major criticism of the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus. The need to quickly equip hospitals across the country with tens of thousands more of the devices to treat those most seriously ill with the virus was not anticipated despite the Trump administration’s own projection in a simulation last year that millions of people could be hospitalized. And even now, the effort to produce them has been confused and disorganized.

...

...Some government officials expressed concern about the possibility of ordering too many ventilators, leaving them with an expensive surplus.

As [FEMA] has been sorting through offers, trying to weigh production capability and costs, hospitals in New York and elsewhere were reporting a desperate need for more ventilators which are critical in treating respiratory problems in a fast-rising tide of severe coronavirus cases.

...

...Sunday, Mr. Trump sounded at least on Twitter as if a deal was done to mass-produce the ventilators, even though it was unclear who was going to pay for equipping the General Motors plant or how long that process would take.

“Ford, General Motors and Tesla are being given the go ahead to make ventilators and other metal products, FAST! @fema Go for it auto execs, lets see how good you are?”

[And of course he will not trigger the Defense Production Act by which he could have ordered to industry to produce them in this "war." War? Are you kidding? Donald Trump in a war? He'll do anything he can to avoid war. He's always been Private Bone Spurs.]

...

Administration officials said Thursday that they were struggling to understand just how many ventilators the new venture could make.

The initial projection, one senior administration official said, was that after three weeks of preparation it could produce an initial run of 20,000 ventilators, or about two-thirds of what Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York recently said his state alone needs to cover the influx of coronavirus patients expected in two weeks, if not sooner.

That number then shrank to 7,500 ventilators in the initial run, or maybe 5,000, a recognition, it seemed, that auto transmissions and ventilators had very little in common. Those numbers are in flux and so are the Trump administration's because the White House cannot decide how many ventilators it wants.

Awesome reporting by David E. Sanger, Maggie Haberman, and Zolan Kanno-Youngs.

Trump Epidemic: Johnnies Confirm WE'RE #1!

KEEP AMERICA SICK!

TRUMP WASHES HIS HANDS OF VIRUS, PASSES BUCK TO GOVERNORS*

*Update 5:39 p.m.: The ex-Quasis headlined at 5:28 that their data show that U.S. has surpassed Italy and China in total cases of the virus. WE'RE NUMBER 1! WE'RE NUMBER 1! U-S-A! U-S-A! I'm going to wait for confirmation from the Johnnies.

In a letter to the governors today Trump wrote:

There is still a long battle ahead, but our efforts are already paying dividends. (1) As we enhance
protections against the virus, Americans across the country are hoping the day will soon arrive
when they can resume their normal economic, social, and religious lives.(2)

In furtherance of this shared goal, my Administration is working to publish new guidelines for
State and local policymakers to use in making decisions (3) about maintaining, increasing, or
relaxing social distancing(4) and other mitigation measures they have put in place.

This is what we envision: Our expanded testing capabilities will quickly enable us to publish
criteria, developed in close coordination with the Nation's public health officials and scientists,
to help classify counties with respect to continued risks posed by the virus. This will incorporate
robust surveillance testing, which allows us to monitor the spread of the virus throughout the
country. Under these data-driven criteria, we will suggest guidelines categorizing counties as
high-risk, medium-risk, or low-risk.(5)

With each passing day, our increasingly extensive testing capabilities are giving us a better
understanding of the virus and its path.(6) As testing gives us more information about who has
been infected, we are tracking the virus and isolating it to prevent further spread.(7)This new
information will drive the next phase in our war against this invisible enemy.
…
I look forward to witnessing that same boundless spirit drive our recovery and quickly return us to the path of exceptional health, safety, and prosperity(8) for all of our citizens.

1. "paying dividends" is a common phrase used in many contexts. It is the phrase Trump used; not "working": "paying dividends." The Dow had another banner day in paying dividends, that is what stocks do. The Dow closed up 6.38% to 22,552. Or, as the New York Times put it in a headline "Markets Shrug Off Jobless Claims as S&P Has Best 3-Day Run Since 1933."Used in the context of containing Trump Virus however the metaphor is telling and, most importantly, untrue. Right now the U.S. has 80,021 cases of Trump Virus. That number places the U.S. third in prevalence of Covid-19 among all countries. The number of new U.S. cases continues to increase exponentially and the U.S. is only 568 cases behind second-place Italy and only 1,761 cases behind China, number one in cases. The U.S. will likely overtake Italy before the end of the day and overtake China tomorrow. Those are the "dividends" from Trump's Solution to the Trump Epidemic.
2. I certainly was. Trump certainly is.
3. "Who, me? I'm done making decisions on this."
4. "Ask your governors. Don't bother me, have you seen the stock market today. Do you want an autographed chart?"
5. "We're going to do that 'quickly'; 'publish' these guidelines to 'help' 'State and local policymakers in making decisions.' They are only 'suggestions'! The governors and mayors can ignore them if they want! That's up to them! Not me! THEM! Don't blame me! Them! I am not making any decisions. I'll take the credit for this 'help.'"
6. "This gave me a better understanding of its path. To the moon!"

7. "We're tracking the virus up the Apennines and soon will be tracking it up the Himalayas and are isolating it up there. See?" 

8. "See? You are very welcome."

"NOW GET BACK TO WORK!"

Trump Unemployment

And now the other side of the Trump Recession brought to you by the Solution to the Trump Epidemic. Unemployment claims soared past 3,280,000 this week, a new record: almost five times the highest week during the Great Recession, 4.7 times (which is almost five, too) more than the previous high in October 1982. Meanwhile, Wall Street, having gotten $2 trillion from Trump continues on its climb onward and upward! The Dow is up 4% to 22, 014. Which is the only number Trump cares about and has ever cared about. Only 1,049 Americans have so far died of Trump Virus and the mortality rate is only 1.54%, numbers that any idiot can see pale against the stock market figures.

Trump Epidemic, March 25, 11:32 p.m. FINAL

The night gets colder and darker by the hour. Total deaths right now are at 1,041. More ominous, the mortality rate in the U.S. is now up to 1.5%. It has gone from 1.2% a few days ago to 1.3% yesterday to 1.4% earlier today and now to 1.5%. The world rate is 4.5%. Dr. Fauci said on March 11 that Trump Virus is "ten times" more lethal than seasonal flu, which is 0.1%. Taking him absolutely literally that would be a 1% mortality rate for Trump Virus. We're already 50% higher than that.

Previously I had pointed out as notable the U.S. low death rate compared to other countries and worldwide. Tonight I figured it out, finally understood what you probably understood before I did.

The U.S. first started getting cases in numbers that moved the graph on March 6. They increased arithmetically until March 16 and then took off exponentially with no end so far in sight. So the first people who in measurable numbers got sick from March 6-16 are the ones who were dying when the death rate was 1.2%, 1.3%. But now, the exponentially greater numbers from March 16, 17, and 18 have had 7 to 9 days with the virus and now they are dropping. The biggest jump in raw numbers on the graph is March 20 to 21. Some of them are probably dying also but it stands to reason that that large cohort will grow larger, meaning also that the death rate for them will increase in coming days as they have only had the virus for four or five days.

You can see what the jump in the mortality rate from 1.2% to 1.5% is going to do to the total number of deaths. If we take a round number, 100,000 infections, the total number of deaths at 1.2% is 1,200, at 1.5% 1,500. And if our mortality rate, contrary to the clear spirit of Dr. Fauci's estimate, got to the world rate, then 4,500 deaths per 100,000 would occur in the U.S. To state the obvious there is a clear, meaningful difference between 1,200 deaths and 4.500 per 100,000 that should, must, but if Trump has his way, won't, dictate general public policy.

Easter, Trump's target date to release the hounds is 18 days away. There were 18 days from March 6 to yesterday, the 24th, in which the total number of cases increased first arithmetically and then exponentially and the mortality rate climbed from 1.2% to 1.4%. But now, on the 25th, we have 18 days at the exponentially higher numbers until April 12 and the death rate has climbed to 1.5% since yesterday with no end in sight of the growth of the raw numbers and, off recent history, no reason to think that the mortality rate will not increase to 1.6%, 1.7%, and beyond. I would think.

With these trends, and now I am repeating myself, with the increase in the mortality rate so dramatically just in the last few days, no president concerned about national health would dare think to set April 12 as release the hounds day. Even if the number of infections "flattens" between now and April 12, the U.S. health care system is going to be inundated with these exponential cases and it would be madness to risk additional infections and subsequent deaths as added burden to an already overwhelmed system.

All this to repeat what I said too, too recently: TIGHTEN THE DAMN RESTRICTIONS! DON'T EASE THEM! KEEP THE HOUNDS PENNED! In short, you were right, I was wrong (again).

Good night, and may God keep the United States of America.

Trump Epidemic, March 25, 8:51 p.m.

A chilling day. 65,778 confirmed cases, 942 deaths. A rising mortality rate of 1.43. The U.S. number of infected has rocketed upward since March 16, no end in sight. No "flattening." Yet, Trump's

"hope," to end the sieve-like lockdown on Easter, is eighteen days away.