Mail Delays Fuel Concern Trump Is Undercutting Postal System Ahead of Voting

[This attack on mail voting is two pronged vote suppression. As Trump has said remotely and in the Tweet below-mentioned, he and every Republican politician knows that more eligible voters voting means that “A Republican would never get elected again,” Trump’s words previously. 

[But the second prong is this. Trump and Republicans want voters in heavily Democratic precincts, almost always minority voters, to vote in person so that Trump’s henchman can personally exercise voter suppression: intimidate voters with challenges to their credentials, intimidate them into walking away without voting, delay them from voting until after the polls close and discourage them through hours-long waits in line. Republicans have the manpower to have their vote suppressers in key precincts in battleground states; they would have no way of suppressing the vote if voting were done by tens of millions of voters by putting a stamp on their ballot envelope and dropping it in their mailbox. When Barack Obama was elected president in 2008, the U.S. had more than 132,000 polling places; by the time Donald Trump ascended to the White House, eight years later, more than 15,000 of them had been closed nationwide.  In 2016 there were 116,990 polling places in the United States. Since then, Southern states have closed 1,200 polling places entirely. Ahead of the mid-term elections in November, 2018 polling places in Black communities in Georgia were closed “after a white elections consultant recommended they do so to save money. In 2019 Texas led the US south in an unenviable statistic: closing down the most polling stations, making it more difficult for people to vote and arguably benefiting Republicans.]

...

President Trump’s yearslong assault on the Postal Service and his increasingly dire warnings about the dangers of voting by mail are colliding as the presidential campaign enters its final months. The result has been to generate new concerns about how he could influence an election conducted during a pandemic in which greater-than-ever numbers of voters will submit their ballots by mail.

In tweet after all-caps tweet, Mr. Trump has warned that allowing people to vote by mail will result in a “CORRUPT ELECTION” that will “LEAD TO THE END OF OUR GREAT REPUBLICAN PARTY” and become the “SCANDAL OF OUR TIMES.” He has predicted that children will steal ballots out of mailboxes. On Thursday, he dangled the idea of delaying the election instead.

Members of Congress and state officials in both parties rejected the president’s suggestion and his claim that mail-in ballots would result in widespread fraud. But they are warning that a huge wave of ballots could overwhelm mail carriers unless the Postal Service, in financial difficulty for years, receives emergency funding that Republicans are blocking during negotiations over another pandemic relief bill.

At the same time, the mail system is being undercut in ways set in motion by Mr. Trump. Fueled by animus for Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, and surrounded by advisers who have long called for privatizing the post office, Mr. Trump and his appointees have begun taking cost-cutting steps that appear to have led to slower and less reliable delivery.

In recent weeks, at the direction of a Trump campaign megadonor who was recently named the postmaster general, the service has stopped paying mail carriers and clerks the overtime necessary to ensure that deliveries can be completed each day. That and other changes have led to reports of letters and packages being delayed by as many as several days.
...
“We have an underfunded state and local election system and a deliberate slowdown in the Postal Service,” said Wendy Fields, the executive director of the Democracy Initiative, a coalition of voting and civil rights groups. She said the president was “deliberately orchestrating suppression and using the post office as a tool to do it.”

Kim Wyman, the Republican secretary of state in Washington, one of five states where mail-in balloting is universal, said Wednesday on NPR’s “1A” program that “election officials are very concerned, if the post office is reducing service, that we will be able to get ballots to people in time.”
...
A plunge in the amount of mail because of a recession — which the United States entered into in February — has cost the Postal Service billions of dollars in revenue...Democrats have proposed an infusion of $25 billion. On Friday, Speaker Nancy Pelosi accused Republicans, who are opposed to the funding, of wanting to “diminish the capacity of the Postal System to work in a timely fashion.”
...
Many states have already loosened restrictions on who can vote by mail: In Kentucky, mail-in ballots accounted for 85 percent of the vote in June’s primary. In Vermont, requests for mail-in ballots are up 1,000 percent over 2018.

Michigan voters had requested nearly 1.8 million mail-in ballots by the end of July, compared with about 500,000 by the similar time four years ago, after the secretary of state mailed absentee ballot applications to all 7.7 million registered voters.
...

Erratic service could delay the delivery of blank ballots to people who request them. And in 34 states, completed ballots that are not received by Election Day — this year it is Nov. 3 — are invalidated, raising the prospect that some voters could be disenfranchised if the mail system buckles.
...
In New York, where officials urged people not to cast ballots in person during June’s primary, counting of mail-in ballots is still underway weeks later, leaving some crucial races undecided. In some cases, ballots received without postmarks are being discarded.
...
Mr. Trump and his allies have seized upon the New York debacle as evidence that he is right to oppose mail-in ballots. Kayleigh McEnany, the White House press secretary, called it an “absolute catastrophe,” and the president referred to New York in a tweet that said, “Rigged Election, and EVERYONE knows it!”

But Mr. Trump — who himself has repeatedly voted by mail in recent elections — has set in motion changes at the Postal Service that could make the problem worse.

A series of Postal Service documents titled “PMGs expectations,” a reference to the postmaster general, describe how Mr. Trump’s new leadership team is trying to cut costs.

“Overtime will be eliminated,” says the document, which was first reported by The Washington Post. “Again, we are paying too much overtime, and it is not cost effective and will soon be taken off the table. More to come on this.”

The document continues: “The U.S.P.S. will no longer use excessive cost to get the basic job done. If the plants run late, they will keep the mail for the next day.”
Another document, dated July 10, says, “One aspect of these changes that may be difficult for employees is that — temporarily — we may see mail left behind or on the workroom floor or docks.”
...
With the agency under financial pressure, some offices have also begun to cut back on hours. The result, according to postal workers, members of Congress and major post office customers, is a noticeable slowdown in delivery.
...
Mr. Trump has been assailing the Postal Service since early in his presidency, tweeting in 2017 that the agency was becoming “dumber and poorer” because it charged big companies too little for delivering their packages.

The president has repeatedly blamed Mr. Bezos, who is also the owner of The Washington Post, for the financial plight of the Postal Service, insisting that the post office charges Amazon too little, an assertion that many experts have rejected as false.

In the past three years, the president has replaced all six members of the Postal Service Board of Governors.

In May, the board, which includes two Democrats, selected Mr. DeJoy, a longtime Republican fund-raiser who has contributed more than $1.5 million to Mr. Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns, to be postmaster general. According to financial disclosures, Mr. DeJoy and his wife, Aldona Wos, who has been nominated to be the ambassador to Canada, have $115,002 to $300,000 invested in the Postal Service’s major competitor, UPS.

Two board members have since departed. David C. Williams, the vice chairman, left in April over concerns that the Postal Service was becoming increasingly politicized by the Trump administration, according to two people familiar with his thinking. Ronald Stroman, who oversaw mail-in voting and relations with election officials, resigned in May.

One of the remaining members, Robert M. Duncan, is a former Republican National Committee chairman who has been a campaign donor to Mr. Trump.

In accusing the administration of politicizing the Postal Service, the president’s critics point to a recent decision to send a mailer detailing guidelines to protect against the coronavirus. The mailer, which featured Mr. Trump’s name in a campaignlike style, was sent in March to 130 million American households at a reported cost of $28 million.

According to Postal Service emails obtained by The New York Times under the Freedom of Information Act, Mr. Trump was personally involved.

“I know that POTUS personally approved this postcard and is aware of the USPS effort in service to the nation — pushing information out to every household, urban and rural,” John M. Barger, a governor of the postal system, wrote in an email to the postmaster general at the time.

In another email, Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, told a member of the board that Dr. Stephen C. Redd, a deputy director at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “will make this happen.” The mailer received a go-ahead from the White House before it was sent out, the emails show.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/us/politics/trump-usps-mail-delays.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Kristin Labransdatter

The book reads differently to me now.

It appears most unlikely that the book was all written in the author's head before putting pen to paper. It was three books, not one, The Bridal Wreath was published in 1920, The Mistress of Husaby in 1921, and The Cross in 1922. It seems infinitely more likely that the books were written at different times, corresponding to their publishing dates, rather than that Sigrid Undset wrote them all at once and parceled them out to publishers each year.

It is as if Miss Undset, unsure of the dominant theme, moved off sexual power in The Bridal Wreath and The Mistress of Husaby and, in The Cross, settled on the Jante's Law constellation of sub-themes: honor/duty/debt/memory/forgetting/grudgeholding. That would explain The Cross reading differently to me than the previous two books. It would explain the, to me, clear change of theme. It would mean the trilogy did not emerge full blown from Miss Undset's head as from Zeus.

How was the correct Medieval Norwegian kinsman to properly live his life? That is the question that begs answer in the remaining 27% of the book and I'll be a sonofabitch if I can see how that question is going to answered, for there is this *weird* Norwegian inversion that takes place with duty and debt and the others. What was the correct Medieval Norwegian knightly kinsman to do when this man who lived a life without consequence stole his bride-to-be from him and Simon confronted him, both armed, in the Oslo whorehouse? What he did was appeal successfully to Erlend's honor not to besmirch the honor of Lavrans and avoid what seemed certain bloodshed between the two. Simon had not acted correctly by Northern lights in that honorable action. He had shown Erlend the lesser of the two men and himself superior to both he and Kristin, and had bitterly shamed the psyche of Kristin. What it have been correct for Simon to sword fight with Erlend and, no doubt, be killed by Erlend in that house of ill repute?

What should Simon have done when his brother-in-law got arrested and condemned to death? If, do what Simon Darre did and move heaven and earth--and threaten the King for good measure--to get his kinsman released, Simon thereby did not correctly discharge a duty, rather he incurred a debt. If, fuck-Erlend-Nikulausson-let-his-ass-rot in gaol, would that have been "correct" behavior? We'll never know because Simon saved Erlend's life.

What should Kristin have done when Simon's son was dying? What she did was take a trip into the Twilight Zone--I cannot remember reading a more bizarre passage in any book--and saved baby Andres' life. But in these Medieval Norwegians minds Kristin thereby had not done something miraculously good for Simon, but rather something devilishly sinister to Simon. She had made him his thral. What. The. Fuck. I 'on't know Pilgrim but that's how those bastards thought.

I completed The Cross, Kinship's Dues, and have started The Cross, Debtors. Miss Undset definitely decided mid-work to give Simon Darre a co-leading role with Kristin. Miss Undset decided to insert Simon ahead of and in place of Erlend. Simon steps forward ahead of Erlend. This thrusting forward of Simon began in the last part of The Mistress of Husaby, Erlend Nikulausson.

This is odd to me. It is as if Miss Undset was not satisfied with Erlend's character development. Or, the more I read, the more it appears Erlend-the-Reckless was changed by Miss Undset into the one normal character in the book. Miss Undset had Simon stay the executioner's sword in Erlend Nikulausson. That scene seems to have sent Miss Undset on her change of course. Simon incurred a debt for the privilege; Simon developed hitherto ignored feelings of deep love for Kristin. Saving Erlend is actually the second major obligation--second major debt incurred--that Simon has taken on. Much earlier he made the mistake of being the better man with Erlend and Kristin in the bordello. Now this. Man, you do these Norwegians a good turn, you live to regret it. It is Simon's duty now to have Kristin and Erlend see him weak. It is so fucked up.

Kristin gets even with Simon when she grave robs her infant brother and cures Simon's youngest son. It was not a good deed intended. It was a deed to get even. Simon, not physically preventing Kristin from entering the Twilight Zone is seen as weak by Kristin. "'Would you that I should not go--?' And he had not been man enought to answer" Now Erlend must have his revenge.  He gets it. Or Miss Undset gives it to him. Erlend is oblivious and it is not clear if Erlend is aware of Miss Undset's gift.

Erlend and Simon ride to a meeting with some of their deceased father-in-law's tenants. Everybody is armed. Erlend reads Lavran's will and interprets it, by all that the reader is told, faithfully and also with utter nonchalance. But as the meeting breaks up one of the farmers says something sarcastic about Lavrans to Simon. A sword fight ensues--Man, must Hollywood have loved this book!--Simon kills a man and is beset by the others. Erlend comes to Simon's rescue like Errol Flynn and with the same easy grace and sure-handedness with the sword as with reading Lavrans will and he and Simon escape. Simon is deeply troubled by the killing but to Erlend the whole thing was one big hoot. Simon knows right away that Erlend has shown himself the better man, that he, Simon, has therefore discharged his "debt" for saving Erlend's life, but Erlend is oblivious. The gall rises in Simon and after awhile of riding in silence Simon can't keep it down. He pours it out not all at once but in splashes and Erlend gets that something has changed and says, "Do you hate me, Simon?" in astonishment. "I cannot bear to meet you any more!" Simon answers and rides off leaving Erlend sitting there dumbfounded.

Simon has not forgotten--that Kristin was once his betrothed, Erlend has forgotten; Kristin has not forgotten that she rejected Simon for Erlend, Simon has not forgotten, Erlend has forgotten; Simon has not forgotten that he was the better man in the Oslo whorehouse, that he, twenty years later, saved Erlend's life; Kristin has not forgotten either; Erlend has forgotten. Simon and Kristin, and for that matter Ragnfrid, has not forgotten, they carry these inverted begrudgements forever. Erlend is the normal one. He forgets, he doesn't hold grudges. Sigrid Undset is painting Erlend Nikulausson with the deep oil of sensible normalcy where she had previously painting him in unsubstantial pastel water colors. Miss Undset has changed her book.

Portland sees peaceful night of protests following withdrawal of federal agents

(The Guardian)

It didn't work, Trump's provocation. It didn't work. Nothing he does works, to his or anyone else's benefit.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says goggles would provide ‘complete’ Covid-19 protection

(CNBC)

Why wouldn't we wear a complete face shield? Not over a mask, but instead? I hate the masks, although I wear them all the time. I got a KN 95 yesterday and had trouble breathing with it on. They masks are uncomfortable, hot, they steam up my glasses. The complete face shield looks comfortable and less hot. The face shield would be more expensive but I at least would rather wear that (if I can do it instead of the mask.).

Only 149,832 More Deaths to go till January 20!

How to prepare and stay safe

• During a tropical storm
  Avoid walking or driving through flood waters.

That's one of my favorite things!

oh, does anybody have a spare grenade launcher? asking for a friend.

The Trump Killing Field: 152,000

We're okay with this, right? 867 every day till January 20? We still good? Okay.

150,818 Dead to go until Inauguration Day

A double rainbow over the nation’s capital as John Lewis lies in state.

“Grant us, Dear God, a double portion (of Good Trouble),” said Bernice King, youngest daughter of Martin Luther King, Jr. at the service this morning.

Before his death John Lewis wrote an opinion piece to be published on the day of his funeral for the New York Times:

Like so many young people today, I was searching for a way out, or some might say a way in, and then I heard the voice of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. on an old radio... He said we are all complicit when we tolerate injustice. He said it is not enough to say it will get better by and by. He said each of us has a moral obligation to stand up, speak up and speak out. When you see something that is not right, you must say something. You must do something.
...
Ordinary people with extraordinary vision can redeem the soul of America by getting in what I call good trouble, necessary trouble.

Herman Cain, prez candidate, Trump supporter, dies of Trump Virus

Trump ramps up attacks on mail-in ballots, floating a ‘delay’ in the election.

Since the pandemic began, Democrats have feared that President Trump would seek to cancel or postpone November’s general election. On Thursday, for the first time, Mr. Trump in a tweet suggested the vote be delayed “until people can properly, securely and safely vote,” something he cannot legally do.
...
His suggestion came minutes after the Commerce Department announced that the nation’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced, fell 9.5 percent during the three months ending June 30, the largest quarterly drop on record.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/us/elections/biden-vs-trump.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

A key factor in COVID self-protection is knowing someone who has it. As the virus rages out of control in Florida it is striking close to home now. Yesterday, on one day, two of my oldest, best friends tested positive. One says he has no symptoms. The other, in the longest text message she has ever sent me, describes her condition, unsettling to me:

Good days with minimal effects and pain ... Bad ones with more and sleep mostly. It's flu like aches and congestion 100 xs worse. But I'm doing a holistic approach that's aggressive and today's a good day. Sadly I don't want to down play it's seriousness so ounce of prevention still better than pound of cure. That being said there's many of my co-workers who've had it but have made full recoveries some even with preexisting conditions some without. There's life after Covid but no medicine proofs effective against virus like holistic ones do. True story I'm doing holistic and [her sig oth] is not he thinks he can just ride it out like flu moral my good days outweighs his bad ones pain ridden. Thanks for reaching out

T-

The Great Trump Killing: 151,000

Yep, at least another 1,000 today, at least. 151,098 at this moment per NYT. Ruined the eerie symmetry of 1776 in the Death number in the remaining days to Inauguration. As Bill Kristol often asks Republicans of some Trump outrage, I'll ask Democrats,"You okay with that? Watching 151,776 more die until we hold our little election and get around almost three months later to regime change?"  Where is our von Stauffenberg? Alas, we have none. We are a race of hypocrites, bullies and cowards.

Does anybody hear the Battle Hymn of the Republic "In the Air Tonight?" I don't. Do the terrible muffled drums of Death grow stronger, more chilling as the drummers get closer to Washington? I don't hear any muffled drums. There is no sight or sound of a second American Revolution. Pshaw, you can't even get people to protest this American carnage outside the WH. I bet not a single American has "Revolution" marked on his calendar for the upcoming week, am I right? Not one of us. Not me either. We are armed to the teeth; violence is the American Pastime, but it's not happening. Very well. What shall we have the Band entertain us with as we play on? "Nearer My God to Thee"?

Days to Inauguration: 175, Days Since First U.S. Coronavirus Death: 174

Are we just going to let this go on? No popular revolution overthrowing the government, no assassination of Trump, no military coup, no 25th Amendment, no impeachment? We are just going to let our fellow Americans continue to die, while we do nothing to stop Trump?

An average 867 Americans have died of coronavirus every day for 174 days since the first death on February 6, 2020. If the same 867 die on average every day from today, July 29, 2020, until President Biden's inauguration on January 20, 2021...wow, look at this number 151776, 1776, the year of the American Revolution...an additional 151,776 will die. While we look on, doing nothing.

If, in Rwanda or Bosnia or anywhere where the United States could act, 867 people were being systematically killed, Whack! Whack! Whack!, every day the U.S. would have intervened long before this. Are you kidding me? There would have been United Nations Security Council resolutions authorizing armed force. The United States military would have acted regardless. Those responsible would be put on trial. Except here. In our own country.

It is estimated that half of the Deaths by Trump Virus were preventable if Donald Trump had followed scientific guidance on stopping the spread of the virus. Instead, Trump quit. Grew "bored" with the virus; didn't want to hear about it; state officials had to go to Pence.

To prove the crime of Manslaughter, the State must prove the following two elements beyond a reasonable doubt:

1. [Names of 75,000 victims] are dead.
2. 
c. The deaths of  [names of 75,000 victims] was caused by the culpable negligence of Donald J. Trump.

Every person has a duty to act reasonably toward others. If there is a violation of that duty, without any conscious intention to harm, that violation is negligence. The defendant cannot be guilty of Manslaughter by committing a merely negligent act or if the killing was either justifiable or excusable homicide, as I have previously instructed you.

In order to convict of Manslaughter by act, it is not necessary for the State to prove that the defendant had an intent to cause death, only an intent to commit an act that was not merely negligent, justified, or excusable and which caused death.

I will now define “culpable negligence” for you. As I have said, every person has a duty to act reasonably toward others.  If there is a violation of that duty, without any conscious intention to harm, that violation is negligence.  But culpable negligence is more than a failure to use ordinary care toward others.  In order for negligence to be culpable, it must be gross and flagrant.  Culpable negligence is a course of conduct showing reckless disregard of human life, or of the safety of persons exposed to its dangerous effects, or such an entire want of care as to raise a presumption of a conscious indifference to consequences, or which shows wantonness or recklessness, or a grossly careless disregard for the safety and welfare of the public, or such an indifference to the rights of others as is equivalent to an intentional violation of such rights.

The negligent act or omission must have been committed with an utter disregard for the safety of others.  Culpable negligence is consciously doing an act or following a course of conduct that the defendant must have known, or reasonably should have known, was likely to cause death or great bodily injury.

Manslaughter is a second degree felony punishable by up to 15 years in prison. If found guilty of manslaughter of 75,000 persons Trump would be exposed to a maximum 1,125,000 years in prison. Trump is guilty under the law of culpable negligence manslaughter for the deaths of approximately 75,000 people.

Trump will not be hauled before a court in the United States; he will not be arraigned before the smorgasbord of international criminal courts, the United Nations will pass no resolutions authorizing a "coalition of the willing" to forcibly remove Trump, there will be no armed revolution to overthrow the Trump regime, Trump will not be assassinated, the 25th Amendment will not be triggered and he will not be impeached again and convicted and removed from office. He will remain in office after he loses reelection on November 3 until January 20. And as 151776 more die, the band will play on.

Are you effing kidding me?

Get the eff outta here.

I guess I’m just easily impressed but I am really impressed. 

Some people...talent. I’m just missing the talent gene.

America 2.0

Biden’s election will end national nightmare 2.0

Speaking my language

Only fear will motivate the party to change — the cold fear only defeat can bring.

That defeat is looming. Will it bring desperately needed change to the Republican Party? I’d like to say I’m hopeful. But that would be a lie and there have been too many lies for too long.-Stuart Stevens

A Viral Epidemic Splintering Into Deadly Pieces

There’s not just one coronavirus outbreak in the United States. Now there are many, each requiring its own mix of solutions.

[Very good point. When Trump quit the U.S. went from one coordinated national effort to “fifty little laboratories”—fifty laboratories where Trump Virus incubated and spread differently. Ah, federalism. STATES RIGHTS!]

We are in a worse place than we were in March,” when the virus coursed through New York, said Dr. Leana S. Wen, a former Baltimore health commissioner. “Back then we had one epicenter. Now we have lots.”

To assess where the country is heading now, The New York Times interviewed 20 public health experts — not just clinicians and epidemiologists, but also historians and sociologists, because the spread of the virus is now influenced as much by human behavior as it is by the pathogen itself.

Overall, the scientists conveyed a pervasive sense of sadness and exhaustion. Where once there was defiance, and then a growing sense of dread, 

now there seems to be sorrow and frustration, a feeling that so many funerals never had to happen and that nothing is going well. The United States is a wounded giant, while much of Europe, which was hit first, is recovering and reopening — although not to us.
...
...the nation’s capacity for testing, a continuing disaster, [must be] greatly expanded. By the end of summer, the administration hopes to start using “pooling,” in which tests are combined in batches to speed up the process.

But the method only works in communities with lower infection rates, where large numbers of pooled tests turn up relatively few positive results. It fails where the virus has spread everywhere, because too many batches turn up positive results that require retesting.

[Ah. So much for pool testing.]

At the moment, the United States tests roughly 800,000 people per day, about 38 percent of the number some experts think is needed.

Above all, researchers said, mask use should be universal indoors — including airplanes, subway cars and every other enclosed space — and outdoors anywhere people are less than six feet apart.
...
“About 70 percent of Americans report using all forms of it,” [Dr. Beth Redbird] said.

The key predictor, she said in early July, was whether or not the poll respondent trusted Mr. Trump. Those who trusted him were less likely to practice social distancing. That was true of Republicans and independents, “and there’s no such thing as a Democrat who trusts Donald Trump,” she added.

The Danger Indoors

Several studies have confirmed transmission in air-conditioned rooms. In one well-known case cluster in a restaurant in Guangzhou, China, researchers concluded that air-conditioners blew around a viral cloud, infecting patrons as far as 10 feet from a sick diner.

[Oh my goodness. I had not heard of that.]
...
The top factor making people adopt self-protective behavior is personally knowing someone who fell ill, said Dr. Redbird. By the end of spring, Black and Hispanic Americans were 50 percent more likely than white Americans to know someone who had been ill, her surveys found.
...
The Trump administration did little to earn trust. More than six months into the worst health crisis in a century, Mr. Trump only last week urged Americans to wear masks and canceled the Republican convention in Florida, the kind of high-risk indoor event that states have been banning since mid-March.
...
Mr. Trump has ignored, contradicted or disparaged his scientific advisers, repeatedly saying that the virus simply would go away, touting unproven drugs like hydroxychloroquine even after they were shown to be ineffective and sometimes dangerous, and suggesting that disinfectants or lethal ultraviolet light might be used inside the body.

Millions of Americans have lost their jobsand their health insurance, and are in danger of losing their homes, even as they find themselves in the path of a lethal disease. The Trump presidency “is the symptom of the denigration of science and the gutting of the public contract about what we owe each other as citizens,” said Dr. Joia S. Mukherjee, the chief medical officer of Partners in Health in Boston.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/health/coronavirus-future-america.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Russian Intelligence Agencies Push Disinformation on Pandemic

Russian intelligence services have been spreading disinformation about the coronavirus pandemic, according to newly declassified intelligence, material that demonstrates how Moscow is continuing to try to influence Americans as the election draws closer.

...

Last week, intelligence officials warned about Russian, Chinese and Iranian efforts to interfere with the election. While Democrats criticized the warning for a lack of specifics, officials promised to release more information

...

...[Dr] Evelen Farkas, a former Obama administration official...said the Russians were continuing to repeat their efforts from 2016 to try to influence the election.

“They want to sow dissent and reduce confidence among Americans in our democracy and make democracy look bad worldwide,” she said. “They want to prevent people who are tough on Russia from coming into power.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/28/us/politics/russia-disinformation-coronavirus.html

Crazy motherfucker has now killed 150,000.

Fog Over The Trump Killing Field

From the New York Times:

From Johns Hopkins:

NYT's number has been higher than Hopkins for a couple, maybe three, days. Hitherto it had always been slightly lower.

From the Times:

So I went there:


June 25: New Jersey began reporting probable deaths.

June 30: New York City released deaths from earlier periods but did not specify when they were from.

July 27: Texas began reporting deaths based on death certificates, causing a one-day increase.
...

In data for the United States, The Times is now including cases and deaths that have been identified by public health officials as probable coronavirus patients.

[But there is no explanation of when the Times began including probables.]

Some states and counties only report figures in which a coronavirus infection was confirmed through testing. Because confirmed cases are widely considered to be an undercount of the true toll, some state and local governments have started identifying probable cases and deaths using criteria that were developed by states and the federal government.

Confirmed cases and deaths are counts of individuals whose coronavirus infections were confirmed by a laboratory test. Probable cases and deaths count individuals who did not have a confirmed test but were evaluated using criteria developed by national and local governments. Some governments are reporting only confirmed cases, while others are reporting both confirmed and probable numbers. And there is also another set of governments that are reporting the two types of numbers combined without providing a way to separate the confirmed from the probable. The Times is now using the total of confirmed and probable counts when they are available individually or combined. Otherwise only the confirmed count will be shown.

Governments often revise data or report a large increase in cases on a single day without historical revisions, which can cause an irregular pattern in the daily reported figures. The Times is excluding these anomalies from seven-day averages when possible.

So...Confirmed+probable whenever possible. How about Hopkins? So, the 1,696 Deaths on July 27 are artifact of Texas' switch to death certificates. But the Times is not counting Texas' anomaly into its 7-day line, right? "When possible." I think it was not possible for the Times to exclude the Texas anomaly, I think the Texas anomaly is included in the Times' 7-day average because the line jumps too steeply, almost vertically. Now, there was a huge un-anomalous spike in reported Deaths on July 28, 1,324, but methinks it self-evident looking at the Times line after other big spikes that July 27's numbers are included. Look for instance at the line over May 4-6: a pimple on May 6 but otherwise the line average went down; manifestly the Times did find it "possible" to exclude New Jersey's June 25 spike, nary a blip is registered in the 7-day average; New York City's June 30 dump similarly is not included in the 7-day average, I think that is included. But Texas' anomaly is for certain included. You see nothing like the near-vertical rise in the average line after any previous spike,whether artifact of reporting or not.

7/29/74

Always in memory, always in gratitude. Always my love.

T-

Just do it.

I learned something new today.

The CW on choosing a vice president has always been, bring a state. Add something to the ticket. There is scant if any evidence that a veep has actually brought a state to a ticket. LBJ brought Texas to JFK but since then the CW has been more conventional than wisdom. Michael Dukakis attempted to recreate the Bos-Aus axis in 1988. And failed. In 1992 Bill Clinton, Arkansas, chose chemistry in Al Gore. A Little Rock-Rocky Top bulwark was affected but was hardly the point.

I learned today the maxim that is driving, painfully slowly, the Biden veep search: first of all do no harm. You’d perhaps expect me to pan such passive thinking but in this climate I think it is just right. No reaches, Geraldine Ferraro, Sarah Palin. A solid pick who will be ready on Day One.

But. However. That so far as stymied the Bidens. Senator Kamala Harris has been the presumptive favorite forevet but the campaign has not settled on the pick. They have floated other names, I have no idea how seriously, Keisha Lance-Bottoms of Atlanta, Stacey Abrams of Georgia, Liz Warren, Tammy Duckworth, to mention several. All of these leaked or planted stories have ended with Kamala-Harris-is-still-the-frontrunner. And there was another one today. Former Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd conferred with donors after interviewing Senator Harris and said that Harris “showed no remorse” for going after Biden on busing in the first debate. “It was just politics,” Harris explained, smiling. Now, it has been known since that debate that Joe and Jill Biden were particularly hurt and incensed at Haris’s debate remarks. It raised the issue of “trust”, can you trust Karma Chameleon. I am uneasy with Harris, she has no fixed identity, personal or political and as consequence I could easily see her using a line of attack like busing on Biden, not because she believes it as a moral precept of who she is but as a “gimmick”, Dodd’s take on it after her explanation in the interview.

The main point though is that this is so old, it has been known since that debate and it should have been resolved for the Bidens’ one way or the other. Was it a deal-breaker? Was it not? That decision should have been made BEFORE the vetting even started. But in dragging out this search and raising this issue again at this late date (the campaign has set August 1 as Decion Day) is troubling on two fronts: it suggests that the candidate is indecisive and it violates their new maxim, first, do no harm. I have been plain that although I would enthusiastically accept and celebrate Senator Harris as the choice, I don’t know who she is. Conversely I could well understand if the Bidens decided they are just not comfortable with Harris. They risk violating their new maxim because, frankly, if it was me, and this old saw were still at work making sawdust, I would withdraw from consideration in insulted exasperation. If Harris is pissed, I can more than relate. This search needs to end, it needs to end decisively, and it needs to end quickly. Period.

We❤️TrumpCoronavirusBriefings

He’s already walking out after two days! No! Hope, him go back!😩

Lincoln Project: Dan Barkhuff! “Conservative”

We❤TrumpCoronavirusBriefings

Trump Falsely Claims Much of U.S. ‘Corona Free’ as 21 States Face ‘Red Zone’ Outbreaks

President Trump returned to defending a discredited drug at a White House briefing Tuesday evening in which he also made claims about the trajectory of the virus that clash with his own administration’s assessments and bemoaned his low approval ratings.

The president defended sharing a version of a video promoting the use of the drug hydroxychloroquine that was deleted Monday night by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter, which all said that the video had violated their policies on sharing misinformation about the virus.

He claimed that “you can look at large portions of our country — it’s corona-free,” even as federal officials distributed a new report finding that 21 states had outbreaks so severe that they were in the “red zone.” Twenty-eight states were in the “yellow zone,” and only one state, Vermont, was in the “green zone.”

And he lamented that health officials in his administration, including Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, were more popular than he is. “He’s got this high approval rating,” Mr. Trump said. “Why don’t I have a high approval rating — and the administration — with respect to the virus?”

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/28/world/coronavirus-covid-19.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

There’s a funny Lincoln ad in there.

The Perfect is the Enemy of the Good--Sometimes

We made a mistake at first with how we talked about masks. We’re making the same mistake now with tests.

...many of us [the writer is a physician]... focus[ed] on only the most effective N95 masks at first. We knew we didn’t have enough for health care workers, and we knew that homemade masks wouldn’t work as well in the office or hospital. So we told people not to use them. Back in February I asked people on Twitter not to “waste” masks, to “leave them for those who have a real need.”

[Did you ever have this discussion with someone?: "The doctors say masks don't protect you, they protect other people from you. But if you have something, anything, a piece of tissue paper, over your face when another person sneezes there is some obstacle between you and COVID face; wouldn't that reduce by some itty bitty percentage the chances of you catching it from him?" I did, with my son.]

Of course, now we know that messaging was wrong. I should have leaned more heavily on my public health training. Public health experts...[are] thrilled to see a smaller benefit in a larger population. And there are models showing that if masks are about 60 percent efficient, fewer than three-quarters of people would need to wear them to keep a disease like Covid-19 in check.

Today we’re in danger of making the same mistake with tests. Many schools and colleges are hoping to test students often to keep any transmission in check, and frequent testing of big groups of people may be the only way to stop this virus, short of a vaccine. It’s clear that the gold standard for diagnosing infection is a sample obtained by a nasopharyngeal swab...[This is known as the P.C.R. test] The swab is uncomfortable, the test is slow, and the supplies to perform it are in short supply.

Because of that, many clinicians are arguing we need to save these tests for the sickest...“You’re using critical resources that could be better spent in other places.”-Dr. Tina Tan

But this kind of test is not the only one that can identify infected people. We don’t have to collect samples by nasopharyngeal swabs. We could swab just inside the nose. We could even test saliva.

Tests that collect samples this way may be less precise. But they could be collected really quickly, in large groups, with minimal supplies. They could even be collected by individuals themselves in their homes. We could do tons of them.

[Have you ever had this discussion with someone: "Unlike masks, testing has to be perfect to be good. We had a lot of false positives in the beginning, remember? "Less precise" is Moron-Speak for "inaccurate," for "false positives," "false negatives", for Chaos.]


We could also pool tests...Brett Giroir, the assistant secretary for health at the Department of Health and Human Services, has proposed beginning such testing.

[Pool tests are good. I'm jumping in the pool tests.]

Some companies are even making rapid antigen tests...The problem is that they can miss more infections than a P.C.R. test. But they take only about 15 minutes to get a result...

[Oh! 15 minutes from test to erroneous result, excellent course to take.]

...every single case we identify is better than not...

[NO, you fucking quack: every single case we CORRECTLY identify is better than not. Every sing case you incorrectly id is worse. How do you not see this?]

We have to start accepting less accurate, widespread testing...stop muddling the messaging by focusing only on the most effective tests. With testing, just as with masks, more is sometimes better than perfect.

[Dude, why do you not see that that analogy is retarded? You're comparing windshields to gasoline.Go away.]
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/28/opinion/coronavirus-testing-antigen-pooling.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Trump Epidemic

GOOD news for once. The reported Cases average line has leveled and declined. This is Johns Hopkins 5-day average.

That is a dramatic M-shaped decline.


This is NYT's reported Cases 7-day average.

That's me trying to draw a straight line. I like the Johnnies M better. I know, I know: it has declined from a shocking high. It is still shockingly high. Rather have a rocket launch?

Lincoln Project: “Memories”

Okay, I am calling Firsties on this one. I have been calling it what it is for months. FINALLY, and of course it would be my brethren and sistren (sistren?) at the Lincoln Project, SAY IT’S NAME! It’s the Trump Virus.

The Morning After

Donald Trump himself may fume, but hated and alone. The opportunists who make up his administration will abandon him. Republicans will pretend they never heard his name. Republican politicians are not going to hang around a guy they privately hate and who publicly destroyed their majority.-David Brooks

It is this I look forward to with the most relish: the hatred. The shunning, the abandonment. Ignoring him, and them: the most disgusting family ever to occupy the White House.

There is going to have to be an exorcism performed on that place, the White House. Fumigation. How could you live there after them? I'd want to tear it down. Put in a split-level or something. I could never get over the fact that they slept there, walked there, sat on those cushions, used those toilets, that they breathed there. I wouldn't want to touch anything.

The hooting of them in public. Pointing, cursing.

"There he is! Trump! Hey Trump, you're a LOSER!" Laughing at him. They will feel the mocking, contemptuous stares. "Ivanka! You're DISGUSTING!" Spitting on her. They'll have to wear plexiglass facemasks. Accidentally-on-purpose bumping into skinny Cucky Kushner. Hard. They'll have to wear disguises.

The shaming. Avoidance. Trump and Melania walk into a function and people politely turn away. "Ooh, look at the time. Must be leaving."

Brand radioactivity, bankruptcy. Obama National Golf Course, Black Lives Matter Tower. Name radioactivity. Will they change their names?

Calls not returned. Hang ups. Emails unanswered. Unable to get meetings. Invitations not received.

Cancel, cancel, cancel.

The indictments. Trump in the dock. Dershowitz defending, mocked, shunned, abandoned, no dinner companionship on Martha's Vineyard, the lights go out when they see him arrive. Alone. All of them. Alone.

Amazing what heat does to this thing. If we could only inject it somehow into the body, like implant a mini nuclear reactor on wheels that would drive around the body.

T-

The Great Trump Death: 148,000

There was the usual weekend lull in Deaths reporting this past. After the 1100 Quadrangle, reported Deaths dropped below 1,000 to 884 Saturday, but then, unexpectedly, the bottom fell out yesterday, only 440 Deaths, the lowest daily number since, well, only in a week, since July 19. I don't know if you could call 884 on Saturday a "typical" weekend lull, and today's, July 27th count is going to be over 1,000 again. To more than double in one day is atypical. The seven-day average is still at a new recent high, 912, is the highest since June 5. It is not a good sign that we didn't really see much of a two-day drop, we stepped down on a pretty high step on Saturday, tumbled down to the landing Sunday and now have double-stepped up to ~1,000 in one day, today. That shows to me anyway a tenacious, aggressive Death, one eager to get back to its recent rarefied air, not a weakened, demoralized creature. When the seven-day average comes out early this next morning it will include today, July 27th's, high number, the low-low 440 on Sunday, the dang impressive for a Saturday 884 and then the 1100 Quadrangle. That seven-day average gonna rise manana.

Cases have plateaued now for ten straight lines (the seven-day average). That is good, good news, it beats an out-of-control rise, that's for dang sure but man it sure is a high plateau. Today the seven-day average is at its lowest in these last ten days and it is at an average of 65,628(:o!) per day. Not very he'pful.

Meanwhile, Trumpie is resolving to keep these Cases death factories rising onward and upward! Person, woman, man, infections, death.

Trump, reverting to form, says ‘governors should be opening up states that they’re not reopening.’

(NYT)

Even as the virus rages across much of the nation, forcing many states to slow or reverse their reopenings, President Trump said Monday that more states should be opening up.

,,,

...Mr. Trump complained that “a lot of the governors should be opening up states that they’re not opening, and we’ll see what happens with them.”

GOOD! I like! Trumpie: Call for your brownshirts to "LIBERATE!" 

...

The good Dr. Deborah Birx-Mengele was once again clear as mud today and we applaud the Doktor as well.

Dr. Birx wants to see all of Tennessee mandate masks — but stops short of asking for a statewide mandate.

...

“We need 100 percent of the counties, including the rural counties, to have these mandates,” Dr. Birx said during a news conference...but she stopped short of publicly asking its governor to issue a statewide mandate.

Well, the governor was there, in public, with Birx-Mengele when she said that.. I don't know, I guess she didn't turn to face him when she said "We need 100 percent of the counties...to have these mandates." I don't get the nuance. Birx-Mengele is a fake doctor so doesn't know even what she's saying. 

This was a nice effort by Trump on John Lewis:

CSPAN

@cspan

Q: "Do you plan on paying your respects to Congressman Lewis either today or tomorrow at the Capitol?" President Trump: "No. I won't be going. No."

https://mobile.twitter.com/cspan/status/1287816360282804224