Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Is Joe Getting Killed?












This is Associated Press, the gold standard in calling elections. Now only the dark colored states have been called. But Trump will win all of the pink states except maybe PA, MI, and WI. It has been the chalk all night except for FL. If Joe doesn't win PA, or MI, or WI, and as you can see he is behind in all three, it's over. This is the only hope, from a Dem strategist back on Oct 2:



The Election Day vote count is going to look like a Trump landslide; that it will take days, he maps out to Nov. 9, for the whole vote to be counted. And when it is all counted it will be a blue tsunami. The model makes assumptions that I don’t think hold anymore. When AP says 97% of the Florida vote has been counted I assume that means 97% of the whole vote, in-person, mail, absentee, whatever. But I have been expecting AP to call Florida for Trump for an hour and one-half, he has a 3.5%, ~370,000 vote lead on Biden and they still haven’t called it. There is some good reason for that and I’ll be damned if I can fathom what it is. Not until Nov. 7 does this Dem strategist, I forget his name, say Florida will be final and it will be finally blue. I don’t think those aasumptions hold anymore and I think Florida will go to Trump.