*Complete
I must say that when I saw the 14-day stats I thought, “Should I even be doing this anymore?” I read an article yesterday on Walk Back Walensky, some competent epidemiologist saying “I don’t think there’s going to be a fourth wave.” COVID USA is dying out FAST. To the new numbers then and we’ll see about future days.
14-day changes
-32% Cases.
-18% Hospitalizations.
-12% Deaths.
Those are huge chunks ripped out of each category.
7-day daily averages
34,549 Cases. Down.
35,073 Hospitalizations. Down.
610 Deaths. Down.
Okay pause. Those are still huge numbers. They were on June 25, 2020 when Cases were about at the level they are now, the Summer Surge was well under way; Hospitalizations were on a rising near- vertical line on April 6 when they were at a comparable number to this iteration; when Deaths were at 607/day over seven days on July 9 they were on a steep increase in their own (delayed) Summer Surge. So, in absolute terms this is no occasion to celebrate. YES! 610 Americans died per day last week. YES! Of course not. When Cases and Hospitalizations are in three digits/day, when Deaths are in single digits, then we're talking celebration time. But we have memories, we know history, we can follow trends. Comparable numbers were before vaccines; comparable numbers were under an illegitimate, incompetent chief executive who gave up and did nothing. The virus raged unchecked. The numbers now, comparable to those then, are after vaccine development and mass inoculation under an engaged chief executive who follows the science. The virus is dying when it was raging; the virus is dying but not dead.
1.73% Deaths-Hospitalization rate. Down.
1,951,333 Vax. Down. Down 134.6k/day. A disaster.
“A disaster” I termed it last night. Or, is this category just not as important now? That is, are the vaccines so effective that we are achieving herd immunity at 40%-50%, like San Francisco experienced. We’ve only got something like 47% of the pop vaccinated and we’re seeing these huge, increasingly larger, chunks being taken out of COVID; mandates are being lifted, governments and even businesses and retailers are relaxing precautions. Everybody in my family has now been fully vaccinated. I still wear my mask when I get into elevators and go into shops but take it off when I go into my ex-wife’s house.
Herd Immunity Day
Per above, 90% is not looking necessary in addition to being completely unrealistic.
Where were we yesterday, late November, right? We'll be into December now.
Yep, December 9. Thirteen days worse than at BIDEN+113.We need well over 2M/day to advance HID and we didn't get there.
President Biden Grade B. Not “desultory” a’tall.
Header: “Bee” Biden gonna sting ya.
May 14, 11:27 pm
I haven't been neglectful. The Quasi's have not updated today. In the past that led me to take their name in vain but they have so improved that I can't now. I'll give you what we have in the interim. Start with the total Dead and calculate Spanish Flu Conquest Day, which I have neglected. These are based on Johns Hopkins numbers.
675,000 Spanish Flu Dead U.S. 1918/19
-585,224 Total Deaths during COVID pandemic, 2020/21.
89,776 I had been calculating SFCD based on 900 Deaths/day. We haven't hit 900 recently but for consistency of baseline we'll continue...Nah, I can't do that. I'm going to use 800 Deaths per day.
Spanish Flu Conquest Day, representing the failure to do better controlling a virus after over 100 years is now, with the reduced baseline assumption, September 4.
Okay, 11:23 p.m. one last check on the 14-day changes and the rest of the 7-day daily averages and if not, nighty-night until Saturday morning...Nada. Good night.
