COVID-19 BIDEN+119 (May 19)

I haven't looked at the numbers yet. I'm a little concerned that Deaths have risen two iterations of the 7-day daily average. And I hope that that does not become a three-iteration trend tonight. If it does, I am perplexed. Cases and Hospitalizations have been getting whacked for awhile now. There is a two week or so delay between a positive test and its resolution in Death. In between is, I assume in almost every Death, a stay in the hospital. I have never known what the average interval between Hospitalization and Death is, although it has to be less than the two-week Death interval after Test+. Has to be. Okay, let's see what we got.

14-day changes May 5 to May 18

-35% Cases. WHACK! Biggest decrease yet?

-20% Hospitalizations. WHACK! Ditto?

-12% Deaths. That's a good hit but it's been bigger. So that's going to increase the Deaths-Hospitalizations rate if it holds, and I think it will, in the 7-day. Let's go the that metric.

Average dailies May 12-18

31,149 Cases.Down about 900/day.

32,636 Hospitalizations. Down 314/day, not nearly as many as Cases. Hmm.

Okay, Deaths, you're up...down I hope...

637 Deaths. That's going to be up, I know it. The last two numbers here were in the six hundred teens...Yep, UP 24/day. That's a big increase when your base is 613. Wow wow wow.

Look at the D-H. 1.95% Criminy it was 1.80% in the May 18 iteration. WHAT in hell is going on????

Somethin' is happenin' and it ain't good.

1,771,807 Vax. Down over 58k/day for seven days. Not good! Roll out the beer barrels! 

Is the drop in Vax (it was down 145k/day in the May 18) the somethin'? Is the drop in Vax killing people? Our Vax do prevent death and serious illness even if people get infected but the Pfizer is close to 100% effective against testing+ so it is not logical, to me anyway, that there is a connection. If Cases and H's were up those would result in more Deaths. But they're down, and down a lot! Color me perplexed.

Herd Immunity Day

Sheesh, we're going to be in late December now...

No, of course not, since I predicted it. December 5. Back four days.

President Biden Grade C

The experts, and we know this administration is science-driven on COVID, has the same numbers as we, the public, do of course and they have them quicker than we do. They have other numbers that we don't have in addition. In reading of  "Frantic" vaccination efforts I read perplexity on the experts' part as well. They see Cases and Hospitalizations getting whacked, Deaths increasing, and vaccinations dropping. They are forgiven for seeing a connection in Vax and Deaths in the absence of a better explanation. Since the experts have other metrics that we don't, projections, frigging models, etc. it seems to me we can read what they think the mid-future holds by what the administration is doing today. "Frantic" today~doom-ish in the next few weeks? Three straight 7-day average daily Deaths increases are, the metaphor more accurate here than most times it's used, the "canary in the coal mine." DANGER AHEAD!