Monday, September 09, 2024

Conservative-biased RCP Sept 9, post time

trumpie has flipped Georgia back, +0.3, and now wins the Electoral College and the presidency with 281 EVs.

trumpie has a small +1.6%, but persistent lead in Arizona and a miniscule but consistent advantage in NC, currently +0.1

Their national average is a scant, and falling, Kamala +1.2. She would have to get to at least +3 or more nationally to win in the Electoral College. 

Kamala is up in Mi.+1.2  NH +5, Wi. +1.5, Virginia +4, Nv +0.6, Mn +5.5. Pennsylvania is still a tie on this site.

She has to win either Pa. or Ga. to get to 270 right now.

Political Investors continue to move their money toward trumpie (the polls are a mess with bias, sample size, M.o.E) which on this date and the last week or so, I find more persuasive of the true state of the race than polling. Tonight it's trumpie 52.0% to Kamala 46.8%, a comparatively massive (and record) +5.2 among those who put their money (which they don't want to lose).