Trump leads Harris in crucial states Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, poll finds
according to a Monday poll from the New York Times. ...Trump is leading Harris in Arizona by five points in a 50%-45% spread, and he holds a similar 49%-45% lead in Georgia. Harris is closer to the former president in North Carolina, however, where the race sits at 49%-47%, according to the poll.
The Times conducted its poll from Sept. 17-21, surveying 2,077 likely voters across all three states.
The Publocc Rule is that nationally trumpie will not get more than his high water mark from 2016 and 2020 of 46.8%. It's the 47% Rule. Now the rule does not apply to each state, obviously. Herein then an attempt to fashion a similar rule for each of these individual states.
Arizona: 2016, 48.1%; 2020, 49.1%. HELD: violates the Publocc Arizona Rule. In addition, according to this poll, trumpie is at 50%. That's just not reasonable. I believe this poll is within their M.o.E. and overstates trumpie's support by at least a point.
Georgia: 2016, 50.4%; 2020, 49.2%. HELD: within the Publocc Georgia Rule.
North Carolina: 2016, 49.8%; 2020, 49.9%. HELD: within Publocc North Carolina Rule.
